GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week for Sept.17

[GoSooners]

Last week (5-4) Season (11-7)

The Big 12 redeemed itself somewhat with Iowa State and Texas beating up on the Big 10. It's funny how I'm now hearing Ohio St. and Iowa aren't any good any more. They're good. They just got beat. Shit happens. Move on. Besides these 2 teams and maybe Texas Tech and Colorado, the Big 12 still consists of a bunch of dogs who haven't earned my respect. Texas still has 9 games to play. Vince Young may or may not win the Heisman, but he gets my vote for most valuable player. Because if Young goes down Texas season will too.

Picks of the week:

Ucla (-7) over OU...I had no doubt after watching OU these past 2 weeks who i was going to take in this game. After a closer look at UCLA and a few things that's happened in the OU camp my feelings have gone from UCLA winning this by 4 or 5 TD's to maybe OU holding this down to a 14 points or less game. First off with UCLA,: I've never had too much respect for a coach who makes the same mistakes over and over. As in when UCLA played OU here a couple of years ago and while HC Dorrell was in an apparent coma his team continued to kick the ball to Anthony Perkins, and he continued to return the ball for touchdowns. It took OU breaking an NCAA record before this coach realized that maybe we might want to think about kicking away from this guy. But by that time OU had layed 59 points up. Game over.
As for this team matching up with OU; I believe offensivly they match up very well. I did get to see the UCLA-San Diego game, and i was very impressed with their RB Drew, and their tight end is one of the hottest in the country. They say their QB is adequate, nothing special and has trouble throwing the long ball. Thus a lot of tight end route passes.
On the other side of the ball is where UCLA has it's weaknesses. The defensive line isn't very strong. And their DB's are young, small and inconsistent.

With OU the problems are many. Let's start with the QB. Both Thompson and Bomar are simply too inexpierenced to run the Jason White style of OU offense we've had for the last 5 years. Too many throws into double and triple coverages have caused these coaches to make changes. The receivers are all young and haven't learned how to get seperation from the DB's. The offensive line is just terrible..period. No lineman..Let me repeat no lineman has started at the same position he started the week before. Centers are moving to guard..Guard to center..tackles to guard etc..Some are moving out of the lineup entirely. OU will be starting 2 freshman at tackle this week to replace the 2 seniors who weren't performing. Although not as obvious, I believe this OU defense still has a lot of problems to solve. With injuries to the defensive line what kind of pass rush are we going to be able to put on a much better UCLA offense? Our defensive backs are all young. They haven't done what i would call a bad job. They don't seem to be out of place as much and are holding their positions a little better than last year. Their tackling could be better. And when they faced some good talent last week with Tulsa TE Mills they had problems. This UCLA TE is even better. I hope OU has answers for this guy. OU also hasn't faced a good RB like Drew.

This week I've learned that OU is pretty much going to junk the offense they've been using and are going to simplify things for their rookie QB. I'm hearing they are going to go almost exlusivley with a 2 back set with Peterson and Runnells and play some smashmouth football. You saw a little bit of that against Tulsa last week when OU decided Bomar was making too many mistakes and decided to do nothing but run and see what happens. OU didn't throw one pass in the second half. I'm also hearing they're going to get J.D.Runnells more into the offensive schemes. All I can say about that is that it's about time. This guy is a big time talent that's been way underused. Bomar will be under center much more. And they've utilized some run plays for him to give OU yet another weapon. When OU does go with the shotgun look, it will be primarily for the short safe underneath routes to their tight end. Something else OU hasn't done this year. From what I'm hearing Long has been afraid of getting the QB's hurt. Which is why they haven't done any QB run plays. With the desperation OU is facing on offense that's all out the window. These QB's were recruited because of their running ability and it's about time they use it. Look for offensive line coach Wilson to finally get his way and begin to start utilizing the type of offense he had when he was at Northwestern. And they ran their QB's a bunch their.

The problem with all of these changes is you can't do it in just one week. This is a transition period for OU. And it's going to take weeks to get this new system down. It's still not clear how well these 2 huge freshman lineman are going to perform. I can tell you that big freshman never have the conditioning to go a whole game this early in the season. So that will be a factor. How QB Bomar takes to this system and a new playbook will be another. My guess is that OU will struggle in the first half and Adrianne Peterson will start finding some holes to run through in the second half when the UCLA line starts to get a little worn down. On the other side of the ball i don't think OU's young defense is going to have much success stopping UCLA from moving the chains. Tulsa and TCU were both successful at dinking and dunking down the field on OU. And with the added deminsion of a good running game I think UCLA will put up enough points to cover.

I still think the linemakers are off with OU and basing the spreads on the team OU has been for the last 6 years under Stoops. It's meant that I've made some easy money in the first 2 weeks. And I believe we still have one more week before these lines start adjusting to OU's talent level. We were lucky OU scored those 2 junk TD's at the end of a tight game last week or else these lines could very well be in the 9 or 10 range. I think we're getting a gift here. And I'm taking advantage. In a high scoring game UCLA wins it 42-27

I'll be back later with the rest of my Big 12 angle playes. GL

 

[AlwaysKeen]

all of what you say is true...but I just can't play UCLA here...still leaning OU's way...

 

[Insiders]

Go Sooners,

Good to see ya up and runing with the UCLA group.
I heard from the Sooner state this morning that Peterson was fo sure held out of practice this week for missing classes.
Another thing they told me was Stoops was heard saying that if Peterson missed "just" one more it would lead to suspension of this or any other game.
I think you are Dead Right as the Sooners look awful and are only one sided of the ball these days.
UCLA will be me as well.

I know that the Texas # is out of sight high. But OKC newspaper guy told brother in law that this is just what the Doctor ordered for Texas this week.
Yes i know the first teamers will come out of the game, maybe even by the half. Score at that time may just may have spread covered.
Second team Texas boys supposed to be very talented to say the least and will surely be able to score on the Rice bunch.
Like Texas here, believe it or not!

obtw..Look for our Wildcats to make Strong statement this week at home. Naturally i like the home doggie there.

UCLA.
Texas.
AZ.
Thats me.

 

[GoSooners]

Good to hear from you Insiders. I'm still looking at the Texas-Rice game. The only thing i do know is this is Rice's second game. And teams usually perform much better in their second game. As in last week when UCLA was playing their second game and Rice was playing their first away from home. Their still away from home this week but at least their staying the state of Texas. Rice should be a lot sharper in their second game. But I'm still not sure it will be enough to cover. Still looking at this one. Also i don't think people outside of Oklahoma know how in disarray this OU program is right now. All they can do is get by on talent. Because they sure don't have their stuff together. Lots of disagreements in camp and stuff.. I'll talk to you later. I've got to get to work. Good luck on your picks this week. I'll be back for more plays on this thread tomorrow. All the best.

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

Good write-up. I played UCLA -1 and the UNDER of 52 in a teaser in this game....but now I'm not so sure. Instituting the smash mouth plan won't be that hard, I think. At the beginning of the second half against TCU, Oklahoma ran a double tight end set and rammed the ball down the Horned Frog's throat. Then.....they never went back to it and lost the game. That, to me, is a coaching error. As we all know, Peterson ran wild against Tulsa once the decision was made to put the game on his shoulders. The plays are already there, so I think the transition won't be that difficult, and with one of the best fullbacks in the country leading the way along with the increased threat of a mobile QB tucking the ball and running, Peterson will have his way with the Bruin D. UCLA is talented, but Stoops has put together All-World recruiting classes the last several years. Outside of a few coaching gaffs, our main problem is youth and inexperience. With two games under their belt, I think they will show enough improvement to keep it close with UCLA and possibly win. I'm going to wait until Friday before I decide if I'm going to hedge my bet or not.

 

[WCBias]

Here is the question that needs to be answered. Can OK hold UCLA to under 24 points? If they can, they can simply run the ball on UCLA and I think they will stay under the number.keep in mind, this is Dorrell's superbowl....he has coached in only one bigger game this...last year vs. USC...and they had nothing to lose. The tide has turned here, UCLA is SUPPOSE to win this game. He'll be clenching his sphincter the entire game.

BTW, where is sphincter?

 

[GoSooners]

I think another question is can Bomar complete those short route passes to keep the chains moving. Being a redshirt freshman the game must seem like a blur to him right now. I think if he learns to slow down and relax in the pocket he'll be alright. That's still going to be a ways off. I just don't see how OU can hold this team to 24 points or less. Both Tulsa and TCU were able to move the chains on us all day. They both had over 30 minutes of possession time on us. Which by the way is a very good handicapping tool when trying to size up a teams defense. Bias, i gotta say it looks pretty bleak for OU. Usually I'm on a line like this bigtime against somebody like Dorrell. But UCLA I think is catching us at the right time. Or wrong time if your OU. One thing going for you if your on the Sooners; OU is scared their going to go 1-2 and the players said in the locker room after the Tulsa game that their going to go out there and take of business. Barry Switzer used to say his teams played their best games when they were scared.

 

[GoSooners]

More Big 12 Angle Plays:

Arkansas State (+24.5) at OSU...The anemic offense OSU has been running has caused new head coach Gundy to make a QB change to Bobby Reid this week. This kid is a bigtime talent who as far as athletic ability goes is the closest thing to Vince Young in the league. You saw glimpses of him last week in the Fla. Atlantic when he came in for a few plays at QB in place of Woods. He should be a good one. The emphansis on should. He's a rookie and he's going to make rookie mistakes in these first few games. They face an Arkansas St. team who got beat by Missouri in their first game and blew out a 1AA team in their second. This team is a little more advanced on offense than the FA team OSU faced last week. So OSU is going to need this kid to put a few points on the board because Ark.St. is capable of hanging around and keeping this close. The Cowboys so far have played a 1AA team and a FL. Atl. team who lost about every player from last years team. This Ark.St. team should be their toughest test. My prediction OSU 27-10

Texas (-41) over Rice...After the Ohio State game the first thing out of Mack Brown's mouth when he was interviewed was "Vince Young is the best player in the country". Sounds like Brown was trying to sell something. I know he'd at least like to have the Heisman in the Texas trophy case if they can't win the national championship. In order to that that he knows he's going to have to pad Young's numbers even it means keeping him in the game for 3 or 4 quarters. Which is what I expect will happen. The Owls might as well plan on dealing with him for at least 3 full quarters. Which means a lot of unnecessary scoring going on. As if they need it with that defense. I smell shutout. Texas eats Rice with Horns 49-0

More plays later...

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

I've been looking for a reason to bet against OSU. I think you just provided it.

 

[TheAce]

nice write -ups...very nice.

 

[Insiders]

Go Sooners.

Glad to see ya hopped on the UT band wagon with me, thats always a good sign.
I am adding Missouri -20.5 to my list this week. We hear that the Tigers are a little bit angry over looseing last week at home and are going to "try" to run it up this week.
Yes i know the D there is weak to say the very least but i think that Brad an company get it done on the offensive side this week in a BIGGER way.

UCLA
TEXAS
MO
AZ
thats me !

 

[Proman]

Good write-up. Just don't trust Dorrell over Stoops.

 

[GoSooners]

I really don't trust Dorrell either. This is one game I hope I'm wrong about. This could be a make or break game for the Sooners. With the talent OU has they could go 8-3 this season. Or they could go 4-7. A lot rides on this game and the players know it.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

all I know is Rice sucks...

 

[GoSooners]

Big 12 Angle Play:

Pittsburg (+10.5) at Nebraska...This is the 3 strikes and your out game for 0-2 Pittsburg head coach Wannstedt. So far he's made a shambles out of a team that went 8-4 last season and returns 16 starters. His first mistake was hiring Matt Cavanaugh as his offensive corrdinator. He was OC under Wanny for the Chicago Bears and later for the Baltimore Ravens. Now there's two offensive powerhouses (not). Luckily this team does still has a good defense despite the surprise Notre dame sprung on them in the first game. Although they lost to Ohio in primetime last week i did see some good things in this teams D. Limiting Ohio to just 11 first downs and 200 total yards. It's those 3 interceptions down in the red zone that killed this Pitt team last week. Palko is a much better QB than that. He was one of the most accurate passers in NCAA last season. My bet is he won't make the same mistakes twice against the Nebraska Blackshirts. The Cornshuckers on the other hand have also had some offensive woes this season. Thru 2 games they've scored 4 TD's on defense and 2 on offense. That would be nice if you could get that stat every week. But that's got to come to an end sooner or later. And their going to have to show some offense. That 230 yard performance against a Wake Forest defense told me a lot. It should have been a big improvement for Nebraska from the first to the second game. And it wasn't. Their facing a better defense this week. And my bet is the turnover tables are going to be turned. 10 points is just too many in a game like this. And I'm not sure Callahan is any better a coach than Wanny. My score Pittsburg 17-13

 

[Proman]

Agree with the Nebraska pick. Can't lay the lumber with an inept. offense. The Husker QB does not know what he is doing right now. I am waiting for the line to move in Pitt's favor and then I could very well pull the trigger.

 

[Insiders]

Go Sooners.

Sounds like sound reasoning to me. Yes that Cornhusker offense is surely not good, defense there in Lincoln better than most think.
One question that keeps comeing to mind with the Pitts bunch is, thier QB has not looked very good this year, he was much better last year by far, did they change QB coach as well? Probably did as Wanny probably brought in new crew.
And again your right about the HC's of BOTH of these teams..........Which is the Worst is another question?
Will coattail you here if that number accidently gets to 11, hopefully will not need all those points but ya know that is always helpful as in haveing the bery, bery best of the number.
Good Luck to ya, and ALL of us for that matter !

 

[GoSooners]

The whole offensive coaching crew is different. But Wanny was at least smart enough to retain the defensive cor. The trouble with their offense is Cavanaugh is more of a run first type of coach. And this QB was in a pass first system last season. I think this problem will eventually straighten itself out. I'm betting Pitt will try some new things this week to utilize Palko's passing. I'm like you on this line. I've seen it go back and forth between 10.5 to 11. I'm going to try and lock it in at 11 if it comes up again.

 

[GoSooners]

Big 12 Angle Plays:

Baylor (-5.5) at Army...I never thought i would be doing this. Taking Baylor and giving points on a road trip. But after looking at both of these teams I feel a little more comfortable taking Baylor. I like the job HC Morris has done with his Bears team in his first 2 years. Although their record doesn't show it yet, Baylor HAS gotten better every year under Morris. This team has started to cover a lot more spreads. They were 6-3 ATS last year in lined games. They are 1-0 ATS this season after a road victory over SMU and a 34 point unlined victory over Samford. In the last couple of years Morris has drafted up in size on the offensive line to compete in the rugged Big 12 South. And it now averages close to 300 pounds across the line. Which is about 40 pounds heavier than the Army defensive line. He's also drafted more speed in the WR area with the very fast Trey Payne. And Dominique Zeigler, their 6-3 wide receiver who is one of the very best in the Big 12. They have an offensive line that will be one of the most improved in the country. And their strongest and best defensive line of the Morris era. They return 14 starters back from last years team.
On the other side Army returns just 10 starters back from a 2-9 team. This team loses it's offensive line which was the strength of this team last season, and the reason why they were able to rush so effectively. They also lose their linebacker corp. And their passing defense was pretty dreadful last year with these same DB's. So i expect a big drop early on in the pass defense area. Boston College pretty much had their way last week with Army. Although I expect them to improve when they come home to face Baylor, I believe it's going to take HC Ross a few games to make this team as competetive as last year. It's dangerous to take the Waco boys in New York City. But I feel they are the better team at this point. I believe their next step to becoming the team Morris is searching for is winning a game like this on the road. And I think they'll be 3-0 when they go in to Big 12 play in 2 weeks.
Baylor is 5-0 SU and 2-0 ATS all-time vs service acadamies. They are also 8-2 ATS since '94 before a bye week. My score Baylor over Army 28-21

 

[GoSooners]

Big 12 Angle Play:

Missouri (-20) over Troy State...This is pretty much your classic revenge game of the Tigers embarassement on national TV last season at the hands of Troy. I'm not crazy about Pinkel and this Missouri team. They're about as erratic as you can get with the point spread. But after getting a wakeup call last week from New Mexico, I believe they will be a little more focused this week. Troy State is having a lot of problems moving the ball on offense. And their having trouble against the pass on defense. They return only 8 starters from last years bowl team. So it looks like it's going to take a while for their excellent head coach Blakeney to get this team on track. Pinkel vowed that they are going to get their defensive problems straightened out this week. We'll just have to see with that. This is do or die for Pinkel. They say if he don't go to a bowl this season that he's gone. QB Smith should have a good day. Their defense ?. Missouri wins in my shakiest play of the week. Missouri 42-20