GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For Oct.8

[GoSooners]

Last week: (3-3 ATS) Season: (24-11 ATS) Best Best Plays: (2-1 ATS)

Well I kissed my ugly sister with a 3-3 outing last weekend. It was kind of a frustrating week in that I came just 8 points from going a 5-1. It just shows that you need every point in this game. Or even half point will sometimes do. When it comes to conference play the oddsmakers seem to have an uncanny ability sometimes of getting it dead on right. And you really have to look for the little things to try to gain an advantage. The Nebraska-Iowa St. game last week was a good example of a close call. As you know if you saw the game there were a lot of chances for us to cover the spread if your were on the Cyclones side. And it made the people on the Nebraska game look smart when it was all over. But in reality it WAS a tossup game with the 3.5 points going to Iowa St.. And my feeling has always been to go with the dog in a game that you absoultely cannot find a advantage for either side. That was one of those games.

Angle Plays:

OU-Texas..Take the UNDER (52)..Back in 1998 Bob Stoops was the DC at Florida under Spurrier. After they won the national championship Stoops started looking for a head coaching job. When the Texas job came open he put his application in. It was promply denied. You're too young Mr. Stoops and you don't have any head coaching expierence said Texas. Stoops waited a year and in stepped OU. And the rest is history. Stoops never has forgiven Texas because he felt like he had the creditials to coach anywhere. And when he took the head coaching job at OU he was going to make sure Texas paid for that misstep. And if you know Stoops you know that he hates to lose at anything, whether it be losing coaching jobs to Mack Brown or football games. When he loses he gets all bent out of shape and says stuped things in front of the TV cameras and blames everybody including his mother for a loss. Kind of like Barry Switzer and Steve Spurrier used to do. And those are the kind of guys I want as a head coach. Somebody who can't stand losing..period.
You can believe Stoops is telling his team this week that he wants them to win at any cost. So you can believe their going to play their guts out for him. Even if they don't have the talent of Texas. Texas has played almost flawless football up to this point. Young may make a mistake here and there. But he's got such a good defense to cover it up that they can get away with nearly anything. A good example of that is the Ohio St. game when Young lost a fumble and had a couple interceptions in their own end of the field and the Texas defense shut down Ohio St. and only allowed a couple field goals.
They've got a great defense. That's what sticks out the most on this team yo me. The big mismatch here is the Sooners inexpierenced offensive line against the Texas defensive line. I think that's where OU is going to have some problems. On the other side the Texas offensive line is considered by many to be the best in the country. The interior of OU's line is also pretty good. But the strengh of the defense is OU's linebackers. Stoops thinks OU matches up well with Texas speedwise. So I'm betting that the running lanes for Young are going to close pretty quick. That's how OU has beat Young and this team the last couple of years. They don't totally stop him. They just slow him down and keep him from getting the big plays. Team speed on defense has always been a trademark of OU and always will. Our weakness on this team is our defensive backs. But I'm still not convinced that Young is the great passer that many think. He's thrown 5 picks this season. So he is suseptable to a bad throw when blitzed. And OU has blitzed a lot this season. What i expect in this game is a game a little like last year's 12-0 OU win. Except reversed. Unlike that Ohio St. team that Texas beat, OU is very familiar with this Texas team. They know their tendecies very well. So I don't expect Texas to just move it up and down the field effortlessly like they did last week against Mizzou. OU is going to have plenty of problems on offense, but as long as they don't make many stupid mistakes I believe they can keep it under the total. Taking the UNDER (52)

Be back with more plays...GL

 

[GoSooners]

Angle play:

Take Nebraska (+4 ) over Texas Tech....Taking teams with good defenses and average offenses aren't the most glamorous plays. But I guarantee you they've made me the most money in the past. Especially when their playing at home. If the line had gone below 3 last week with Iowa State I would have jumped on this Nebraska team. But I just don't care to give points with teams like this. But I sure like to take them. Before last week Texas Tech had been flying by those 1AA teams like they were standing still. Then Kansas came to town and all of a sudden those wide open passing lanes closed in a hurry. That's the difference between 1A and 1AA. Speed baby. Tech has some adjustments to make. And I think with their new QB they might have a little ways to go. Going to Lincoln for your first road game isn't the way to get broken in. Nebraska on the other hand is starting to find themselves a little in the West Coast offense. Zac Taylor is making fewer mistakes and looking a lot more comfortable out there. And this Husker team in general is staying in their comfort zone by playing at home this week. Which makes this team even harder to deal with. The Blackshirts are going to get some revenge for those 70 points that were laid on them last year in Lubbock. And Leach's dink and dunk offense isn't in Lubbock anymore. It's on the road with a rookie QB dealing with a mean zone blitz. Add that with a bunch of nagging injuries on the Texas Tech defensive side of the ball and you getcha a loss in Lincoln. Nebraska wins and stays unbeaten 31-21

 

[DeathEatsaCracker]

I'm on the other side of the Texas Tech game. Texas Tech dropped 70 points on Nebraska last year, and even with their injuries, their defense is still better than it was then. Though the Cornshuckers are improved, I don't see them turning it around enough in one year to be able to contend with the Red Raiders.

I see TT by two touchdowns+.

BOL.

 

[GoSooners]

DEAC..How ya doing bud. I'm curious to see how this Tech team does away from home. They weren't that good last year in road games. When they won it was usually close. I like the fact that I'm getting 4 points or more here. Now that Nebraska has seen the Tech defense I think they'll know a little more of what to expect. We'll just have to see what happens when they line it up...GL

 

[Insiders]

GoSooners.

Nice write up as always. Agree the Sooner defense will have to hold Young in check to have reasonable chance to win the contest as well as keeping posted total under the number.
Texas Tech surely not road tested this year as they have not been out of Lubbock. We saw that Nebraska pulled surprise against Iowa State last week with ALL that passing yardage. No telling what they have in store for the Red Raiders of west Texas this week. I suppose Leach will have some tricks up his sleve as well, as he usually does in this type of contest. Wonder if the Nebraska defense can with stand the onslaught of balls flying through the cool air of Nebraska. I would think that weather could be a factor there is there is any on the horizon. HAve no clue as long range weather there can miss very easily in my books.
Cant wait to read your thoughts on the Missouri and Oklahoma State match up, as well as the Kansas and Kansas State meeting this week.

 

[GoSooners]

Angle Plays: Colorado (-2.5) over Texas A&M..The line keeps going down here and that's a little scarey. But like the Nebraska game this is another example of a good defense playing at home with a short point spread of less than a field goal. I think this is going to be a tight game and every point is going to count. This Aggie team is deep, and they probably have a little more talent overall than the Buffs. But right now their having a few problems. One is trying to get a good running game going to open it up for QB McNeal. And the other is their weak pass defense. They've got to work out both of those problems before I can play this team. Baylor was very successful blitzing on 50% of the plays last week and hurrying Aggie QB McNeal. And I'm sure Colorado will try some of the same things. On the other side the Buffs running game is in full gear behind RB Charles who has put up 214 yards rushing the last 2 away games against the good defenses of Miami and OSU. I think if the Buffs can keep their run game going and keep McNeal off of the field they win this game. The Buffs seem to be a very solid team with a veteran QB and since they got rid of that girl field goal kicker they've had the best special teams in the country. And they did something last week that a team from the North hasn't done since 2003. With the exception of Baylor, a North Div. team beat a South Div. team. Hard to believe it took that long. I think the Buffs are going to get 2 in a row here. Colorado wins 24-20

Kansas (+7) at Kansas St...I'll say up front here I hate this game. After 4 games i still don't have a clue how good or bad these teams are. Kansas played crappy in their nonconference games. And played one decent game at Texas Tech. State played good against lowlife North Texas, and seemingly had their offensive problems worked out. Then they played OU and exposed a not so great run defense. The Jayhawks are just 1-10 ATS spread against State with their lone cover coming last year. If Kansas didn't have so many players returning off of that team i wouldn't even be considering them. They do have one of the best defensive lines in the Big 12. And they have a good running game. But another problem i have with Kansas is their unsettled QB problems. As of Wednesday Mangino stilll wasn't sure which QB he was going to start. That's the problem I have here. I believe the Kansas defense can control the Cats run game. But can they score enough to cover? I came real close to taking Kansas State here because the low 7 point spread could be a line value play from last weeks OU blowout and the Jayhawks unexpected close game with Tech. But I'm going to stick to my guns here and see what happens. Kansas State wins..I think 20-17

Missouri (-5) at OSU..This is another game that i have a few problems with. But it's pretty obvious that HC Gundy is going to send OSU through some growing pains to get what he wants in the end. A good pass offense. I still think if he lined it up and ran at Missouri he'd have a chance to win this game. But in his press conference he acted like he wasn't going to do it. So there's the problem. Is he playing us? I know he's pulled some pretty sneaky things with the OSU offense in the past. Tough call. Missouri on the other hand has no defense. Which is normally pretty bad going on the road in the Big 12. It's tempting to take the under here. But i believe even a struggling OSU offense might be able to put up 3 or 4 TD's against this defense. I'm picking Mizzou to put up just enough points to cover. But we're treading on shaky ground here. Mizzou wins 30-24

Baylor and Iowa State..Taking the UNDER (43)...Baylor so far has played some good football. They have one of the best head coaches in the Big 12 with Morris. They've covered the spread in every game they've played and they've also gone under the total in every game. With 3 of 4 of those games on the road. A sign of a good defense. They're playing some good solid stunting and gambling defense. They blitzed Texas A&M on 50% of their plays last week and almost pulled off the upset. With star RB Hicks injured and out of the Iowa State lineup this Cyclone team has been struggling some in the run game. Which is exactly what they needed to have to move the ball on this Baylor team. Last year Iowa State got outplayed all over the field but the scoreboard by Baylor. So you know like they did with the Aggies they're going to come in to win. Not just give em a good game. Iowa State will have to be careful here. I think they'll be aware of this and be ready. The Iowa State defense is tough at home and I believe it's going to be good enough to be able to shut down this Baylor team. So it could be one of those games that is right near the 10 point spread. I'm taking the safer route and saying Baylor keeps their UNDER streak going. UNDER (43)

Back later with my recap and Best Bet play. Good luck to all this weekend.

 

[Insiders]

GO Sooners

Love your style of write ups. I just wonder how Oklahoma State is going to get ALL those points. Yes i know Missouri doesnt have the best defense in the world, and Texas would not have hung up that half a hundred last week without the turnover help. I think you are right on with your finals except that one. JMHO
I think that Oklahoma State gets 10-13 is all. Again time will tell that tale.

 

[GoSooners]

Insiders..I'm not real big on either the Kansas or OSU games. All of those teams are unpredictable. In that OSU-Missouri game I believe litarally anything could happen. The way I saw Texas completely obliterate Missouri's outmanned defense last Saturday was scarey. If Texas hadn't blown several scoring sbances they might have scored 70 on the Tigers. Dam, Troy State laid 21 points on that defense. They only scored 13 on North Texas this week.Anything can happen. That's a no play game for me this weekened.

 

[LucaBrasi]

Sooners - very professional writeups. Keep up the solid contributions.

 

[Insiders]

GoSooners.

I understand where you are comeing from about the turnovers in the red zone as Missouri had several of those as well. Now you an i know that Oklahoma State and Texas are 2 Entirely different offenses, no comparison!! And YES that scoreing could have been 67 to 21 real easy but, it could have been 51 - 36 by the same comparison.
So we can almost rule out the Oklahoma State Missouri match up and The Kansas teams as being your best bet. Well that just leaves a few to pick from.
Still looking forward to your "best bet" game of the weekend.
Love reading your thoughts and opinions, usually very good, i might add.

Last week as you mentioned the first week of conference play.
Now did you see anything that really surprised you, other than Oklahoma State not being able to score? I thought Kansas surprised me the most by putting together that second half in Lubbock. Still think Nebraska got lucky to cover.
Iowa State pass defense far from good.
Baylor now road tested and they are better than most anyone gave them credit of being.
Colorado Big and Tuff for sure.
Cant wait for the Red River Shootout, that might not be a Shootout this year. Probably wont be another 12-0 but i can sure see i staying under the total.
Just cant get a handle on the A&M bunch. Think they are in for trouble in the thin air of Colorado this week. Now this is to me the most interesting match-up of the week. After this week we shall be able to get better handle on them, IMO.
Laters
BOL to ya !

 

[hookemboyz]

Night game Nebraska

The game is moved to 6 30 on tbs its gonna be cold and lound in lincoln One more thing looking in Nebraskas favor. iam from nebraska its gonna be low 40 to high 30 sat night

 

[Insiders]

Ahhhhhh a current weather report from the Lincoln area. Yes that could make the difference in one of the Texas Tech boys hanging on to a pass that could be the difference. Home doggieee always alive, now more so than ever.

 

[WinOne]

TT/Nebraska - TT QB making first road start of the year in this one thanks to TT cupcake schedule. No crowd in Lubbock will match the intensity that Lincoln on a Saturday night will be. As I mentioned in my thread, Husker players and coaches have this one circled. Don't know if they have the bullets but they come out firing on both sides of the ball in this one.

WinOne!!

 

[WCBias]

After watching Nebraska play Pittsburg in what had to be one of the worst college football games of the year, including last nights debacle, I don't know how anyone could side with Nebraska. Home field and fan support and cold weather only go so far when you have a brutal friggin' offense.

Likewise, TT has to actually play someone on the road in a hostile environment. I'd prefer to see TT win only to provide some competition in the standings with Texas at the end of the year, maybe OK will come through.

 

[donkeybucks]

Texas Tech 45

Nebraska 20

The husker secondary...................a little hard to do a write up on them because they don't have one. Husker fans know this to be true. The only thing that kept Iowa State from pulling away from the Huskers was the Huskers defensive front. Just too much pressure. Iowa State's head coach was very disappointed with the defensive cordinator's lack of blitz calling. Expect Tech to do a dance on Zac Taylor of Nebraska. This kid does not perform well under pressure so expect alot of 3 and outs. The more time Nebraska's defense spends out on the field the more tired the defesive front will tire out. Once that happens, the passing game will open and that'll be all she wrote.

 

[Xmas32]

The thing it seems with Nebraska this year, is all the do is win. They haven't really blown anyone out this year with the exception of Wake. They've shown an ability to come up big in the clutch, especially defensively. Lincoln will be rocking Saturday night, and I think they play Tech verrrry close. I can't bring myself to make a play on the game. BOL to y'all who have the stones to make a play on this one. I'll be SAUCED at the game, so you'll have to forgive my bias. Go NU!

 

[LineBreaker+]

Texas tech is overrated

I have seen all the Texas Tech games here in Lubbock and they do NOT look that good even against these IAA teams.

Indiana State seemed to run the ball pretty well on Tech's D. Kansas also moved the ball against Tech too. Defense is what everyone is talking about Tech being better at but I haven't seen any signs of that, defense is overrated.

The Tech offense is what I was most surprised about though. They have scored lots of points but the offense doesn't look nearly as good as it did last year. Hodges misses receivers by quite a bit and Kansas got a ton of pressure on him and I dont think he knows how to handle the pressure. Kansas knocked him down a lot and that is the one thing Nebraska may be able to do.

Not saying that Nebraska has a good offense or a good secondary but have no idea why this Tech team is even ranked, besides those 60 points they put up against IAA teams.

I just don't think this Tech team looks nearly as good as last year and Hodges may struggle big time in this game especially if Nebraska gets as much pressure on him as Kansas did.

 

[hookemboyz]

Game moved back to afternoon

The game has been changed back to 3 something to do with trying to set something up for tv So games back to afternoon sorry about the post but at one time they moved it 2 6 trying to get tbs to pick it up

 

[Insiders]

Go Sooners.

Just want to take a quick "stab" at your best bet this week. Well i guess you are comeing on Nebraska + the points. Home doggie, Texas Tech not road tested, could possibly be weather involved, better defense? Just wanted to get that in before you post it.

BOL to ya as Always.

 

[GoSooners]

Late Angle Play..Texas (-13.5) over Oklahoma..From what i'm hearing from some sources close to the team Adrian Peterson's ankle has not healed very well this week. And if or when he plays in this game he's not going to be anywhere near 100%. I think this could loom large here. I believe OU can have more success running against Texas than passing. Much like last year. The Texas linebackers are a little on the small side, and I think Peterson can pick up some nice yardage if he gets past the Texas line. I've been waiting for some late news about his injury situation before I pulled the trigger here, and as of Wednesday he still hadn't practiced. Stoops as usual isn't revealing anything when it comes to injuries. But sources say he is having problems with his ankle.
I've been hearing all week about the Sooners mental edge over Texas. I believe they did have that edge until last year. And that was a tight defensive game where I didn't see any backdown from Texas. Peterson of course was the difference then. Not OU's passing. I've also heard statements like the Sooners have beaten Texas when they've had more talent than OU. I hear this all the time. And all I can say is that's a bunch of bullshit. OU, since Stoops has been there has always had more talent than Texas. All you have to do is look at OU's 4 year starters from last year who are now gone to the NFL. All 10 of them! And that's the problem here. You've got freshman against seniors. And that's never a good thing. I think Stoops will have the Sooners ready to put up a good fight on defense and hold this Texas team in the 20's or 30's. Our problem here is going to be our offense whose going to have a lot of problems finding the endzone. Kind of like last year when we had those 10 NFL players. Texas will win this one and cover the spread. And I still like the under very much here because of the offensive problems that I anticipate OU having. Texas wins 35-10

Angle plays recap:

OU-Texas UNDER (52)
Nebraska (+4) over Texas Tech
Colorado (-2.5) over Texas A&M
Kansas (+7) over Kansas State
Baylor at Iowa State the UNDER (43)
Missouri (-5) at OSU
Texas (-13.5) over OU (Best Bet)

Good luck to all this weekend!