GoSooners
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Angle Plays ATS Record Last Week
4-2) Season33-15-1) Best Bets4-1)
I managed to make it through a difficult last week where the chalk took 5 out of the 6 Big 12 games. This week is the biggest weekend so far in Big 12 play with Texas and Texas Tech going at it for what will probably be the Big 12 South title. Texas is a double digit favorite, and in what is kind of a funny week in football, in 32 of the lined 55 games this weekend there are double digit favorites. And that is why many of the bigtime public handicappers are calling this a bad card. Most touts and big cappers like a single digit spreads. And I've always preferred it myself. 4 out of the 6 Big 12 games this week are double digit spreads. That's why most of the big cappers are staying far away from the Big 12 this weekend.
This years Heisman race is one of the best that I've seen in years. I can't recall 3 stronger contenders in one year than Young, Bush and Leinart. Leinart has his Heisman already in pocket. But I think it's a great race between Young and Bush if Leinart don't win. Vince Young is so good it's just stupid. Does anybody notice that this guy never seems to really get hit, and barely gets touched. But the thing with Young is that in all likelihood he still has another year to win it. If I could vote on the Heisman winner this year it would be for Reggie Bush. And I've never voted for a Bush in my life. This dude is something else. I think he's the closest thing that I've seen to Barry Sanders, who I consider the best halfback ever. This also might be one of the last halfbacks you see on the Heisman podium because with the spread offenses so in vogue at the moment the HB position is starting to become a lost art.
Angle Plays:
Nebraska (+3) over Missouri..I'm taking Nebraska for the same reason I took Iowa St. last week. Their up against a bad defense. I don't care how good of an offense you have, if you have a bad defense it keeps that good offense off the field. Iowa State had close to 37 minutes of possesion time last week. You can't keep allowing that and winning games. And Missouri was very fortunate last week to win that game. The thing that really stood out to me is Mizzou actually only scored 13 offensive points! The other 2 scores were a result of Iowa State mistakes. Have teams begun to figure out Missouri's Utah offense? Nebraska is coming to town with an even better D than Iowa St. And Callahan spent some of his offseason in Utah and Florida studying the Utah offense and how to stop it. This guy does his homework on his opponents and I think the Huskers will be ready. My personal feeling about Missouri is they don't have any heart. I saw it against Texas when they played a great first 15 minutes and as soon as Texas got rolling the Tigers stopped dead in their paw tracks. They did the same thing at OSU when they were up 31-9 against a bad offense and let OSU come back to tie it at 31 before Mizzou finally pulled it out. It also happened against New Mexico, who reeled off 17 unanswered 4th quarter points to win that game. And it happened with Iowa St. last week when Mizzou was up a quick 14 points and then let Iowa State run off 24 straight unanswered points. This team can't hold a lead. They're a young immature team with only 4 starters back on defense. And it's eventually going to catch up with them because they can't play 60 minutes of football. Nebraska on the other hand has plenty of heart. I saw that when they were down 21-0 on Texas Tech and came back and tied the game and should have won it. This team will get after you and they have a killer instinct. Both of these teams are similar in talent. For that fact so is the entire Big 12 North. But I look for little flaws in teams that seperate them from their opponent. And this Tiger team has a flaw. No heart. We'll see what happens. But my money this week is on Nebraska. Nebraska wins it 24-21
Texas (-17) over Texas Tech..The big game of the week between the 1st and 2nd best team in the Big 12. But is Tech the second best team? The power ratings don't say so. They say Texas played that team last week with Colorado. I'm sure the mad genius Leach will have a new wrinkle or two this week. But eventually Texas is going to get the ball on offense and control this game with the run. Like they did last year. The only question here is can Tech play keepaway with their offense long enough to keep them in the game? I don't believe this is going to be a "Texas gets big lead and Tech backdoors them" kind of game. Leach is smart enough to know he can't do what he did last year and win this game. I think their going to try to do the same thing to Texas as they did last year with OU's high powered offense. Their going to try to control time of possession with the short pass and keep Vince Young off the field. I don't see Texas getting a big early lead with 4 quick scores like they did last week against the Buffs. I believe their going to whittle away at Tech and in all likelihood wear them down in the 4th quarter. This is going to be a close game on the spread. I certainly wouldn't want to give any more than this 17 points here. And I'm still shopping around for less. I think it's going to be that close on the spread. But I want no part of Tech here. They just don't have the defense to stop Texas. And Texas is just killing people. My over/under for punt attemps by the Horns in this game is 2.5. I'll take the under. Texas wins in a close spread win 38-20.
Baylor (+14.5) over OU..That was a pretty ugly game OU won last week at Kansas. And I think this game is going to be the same way. OU's win and second half spurt in that game was a direct result of a very inept Kansas offense that simply kept their defense on the field too long... Period. I don't think OU is going to get quite that good of a gift this week. Baylor is a better offensive team. And a similar defensive team (rated #27). Although far from great, their offense is good enough to move the chains enough to give their defense a decent rest. And this Baylor defense isn't the Bears defense of the past. Their linebackers and DB's will run to the ball and get after you. And ex NFL player and HC Morriss instills a lot of toughness in this team. In his press conference this week Morriss said "Nebraska simply beat us up front on both lines". So that doesn't give Baylor a chance against OU right? Don't believe everything you hear. Don't tell Texas A&M or Iowa State about Baylor having inferior lines. This team is pretty stout up front and they've got the size. They got up against a Nebraska team last week tha simply executed their schemes better than Baylor. Morriss is a smart coach. I wouldn't expect that to happen 2 weeks in a row against a less advanced OU offense than Nebraska. Baylor is 8-0 ATS spread after one or more consecutive losses against the spread the last 3 seasons under Morriss. Last week qualifies this strong trend. OU on the other hand IS improving. They are a young team that's taking 2 steps forward and one step back every week. Their defense is coming along fine. Their rated #12 in the country. But I see a little of what I saw in the first half last week against Kansas happening this week with Baylor. I was reluctant to even give 6 points last week. But we're talking 14.5 points this week. That's 3 scores. And that's getting up there when your talking about 2 average teams going against each other. I favor the less talented but more veteran well coached Baylor team here. Good defenses travel well. And I think it will keep Baylor in the game. This is their first time on TV this year. And I think they'll be giving OU their best shot. OU wins, but's it no runaway. 27-17
Colorado and Kansas take the OVER (43)...The Buffs faced the #3 defense in the country last week. Kansas faced the #12 defense last week. Although both of these teams have good defenses. Neither are as good as what they just faced. Kansas hasn't scored a TD in 9 quarters. But I think they'll have their QB a little more in sync with a now full game under his belt. And after seeing the Buffs against Texas, I don't think their nearly as fast in their secondary and linebackers as OU was last week against Kansas. Colorado on the other hand scored 17 points on the road against a good defense. And they've had their offense in full gear for the last 3 weeks now. I expect them to put up at leat 30 points or more here. Which gives me them an excellent chance to hit the over. This Buff offense is a lot more advanced than the OU offense Kansas faced last week. And I believe the score will show it. I really like this play. Take the over (43)
OSU (+15) at Iowa State...This Iowa State team is the hardest luck team in the Big 12. They could easily be 6-0 if it wasn't for some very untimely mistakes by their offense. Last week a fumble and an uinterception returned for td's. Two redzone fumbles inside the 10 yardline against Baylor. And a very close overtime loss to Nebraska. But the one thing every Iowa State game has in common. They don't score a lot of points. 28 is the highest total that they've had in lined games. It's asking a lot for a Big 12 North team to win by 15 points this way against a Big 12 South team. OSU on the other hand has been pitiful on offense. 7 turnovers last week made that Texas A&M game lopsided. I expect a little better effort by QB Pena this week in his second road game in a row. And despite last week's score OSU has a little better defense than what the numbers show. This again is a double digit game where a team has to score 3 times to your 0 to beat you. And that's asking a lot in the Big 12. Taking OSU to cover in a low scoring game. Iowa State wins 24-13
Texas A&M (-2.5) over Kansas State...This is the only Big 12 game this week where the road team is favored. Is this going to be a Cat trap? A&M has been erratic at best. And Kansas State hasn't been very good on either defense or offense. So this is a tough game to guage. This is a hope game for me. I'm hoping the Cats are a little down after being swatted by Texas Tech last week. And I'm hoping Texas A&M got a nice ego boost from their win against OSU last week at home. Although they haven't showed it yet, their personnel says that Texas A&M is the second best team in the Big 12. And after their last blowout roadtrip to Colorado 2 weeks ago, I think the Aggies will be a little bit more focused this week. But I sure wouldn't want to give away more than a field goal here. Texas A&M wins in a close one 27-23
I'll be back tomorrow with a recap and a possible late play. Good luck this weekend. :toast:
4-2) Season33-15-1) Best Bets4-1)I managed to make it through a difficult last week where the chalk took 5 out of the 6 Big 12 games. This week is the biggest weekend so far in Big 12 play with Texas and Texas Tech going at it for what will probably be the Big 12 South title. Texas is a double digit favorite, and in what is kind of a funny week in football, in 32 of the lined 55 games this weekend there are double digit favorites. And that is why many of the bigtime public handicappers are calling this a bad card. Most touts and big cappers like a single digit spreads. And I've always preferred it myself. 4 out of the 6 Big 12 games this week are double digit spreads. That's why most of the big cappers are staying far away from the Big 12 this weekend.
This years Heisman race is one of the best that I've seen in years. I can't recall 3 stronger contenders in one year than Young, Bush and Leinart. Leinart has his Heisman already in pocket. But I think it's a great race between Young and Bush if Leinart don't win. Vince Young is so good it's just stupid. Does anybody notice that this guy never seems to really get hit, and barely gets touched. But the thing with Young is that in all likelihood he still has another year to win it. If I could vote on the Heisman winner this year it would be for Reggie Bush. And I've never voted for a Bush in my life. This dude is something else. I think he's the closest thing that I've seen to Barry Sanders, who I consider the best halfback ever. This also might be one of the last halfbacks you see on the Heisman podium because with the spread offenses so in vogue at the moment the HB position is starting to become a lost art.
Angle Plays:
Nebraska (+3) over Missouri..I'm taking Nebraska for the same reason I took Iowa St. last week. Their up against a bad defense. I don't care how good of an offense you have, if you have a bad defense it keeps that good offense off the field. Iowa State had close to 37 minutes of possesion time last week. You can't keep allowing that and winning games. And Missouri was very fortunate last week to win that game. The thing that really stood out to me is Mizzou actually only scored 13 offensive points! The other 2 scores were a result of Iowa State mistakes. Have teams begun to figure out Missouri's Utah offense? Nebraska is coming to town with an even better D than Iowa St. And Callahan spent some of his offseason in Utah and Florida studying the Utah offense and how to stop it. This guy does his homework on his opponents and I think the Huskers will be ready. My personal feeling about Missouri is they don't have any heart. I saw it against Texas when they played a great first 15 minutes and as soon as Texas got rolling the Tigers stopped dead in their paw tracks. They did the same thing at OSU when they were up 31-9 against a bad offense and let OSU come back to tie it at 31 before Mizzou finally pulled it out. It also happened against New Mexico, who reeled off 17 unanswered 4th quarter points to win that game. And it happened with Iowa St. last week when Mizzou was up a quick 14 points and then let Iowa State run off 24 straight unanswered points. This team can't hold a lead. They're a young immature team with only 4 starters back on defense. And it's eventually going to catch up with them because they can't play 60 minutes of football. Nebraska on the other hand has plenty of heart. I saw that when they were down 21-0 on Texas Tech and came back and tied the game and should have won it. This team will get after you and they have a killer instinct. Both of these teams are similar in talent. For that fact so is the entire Big 12 North. But I look for little flaws in teams that seperate them from their opponent. And this Tiger team has a flaw. No heart. We'll see what happens. But my money this week is on Nebraska. Nebraska wins it 24-21
Texas (-17) over Texas Tech..The big game of the week between the 1st and 2nd best team in the Big 12. But is Tech the second best team? The power ratings don't say so. They say Texas played that team last week with Colorado. I'm sure the mad genius Leach will have a new wrinkle or two this week. But eventually Texas is going to get the ball on offense and control this game with the run. Like they did last year. The only question here is can Tech play keepaway with their offense long enough to keep them in the game? I don't believe this is going to be a "Texas gets big lead and Tech backdoors them" kind of game. Leach is smart enough to know he can't do what he did last year and win this game. I think their going to try to do the same thing to Texas as they did last year with OU's high powered offense. Their going to try to control time of possession with the short pass and keep Vince Young off the field. I don't see Texas getting a big early lead with 4 quick scores like they did last week against the Buffs. I believe their going to whittle away at Tech and in all likelihood wear them down in the 4th quarter. This is going to be a close game on the spread. I certainly wouldn't want to give any more than this 17 points here. And I'm still shopping around for less. I think it's going to be that close on the spread. But I want no part of Tech here. They just don't have the defense to stop Texas. And Texas is just killing people. My over/under for punt attemps by the Horns in this game is 2.5. I'll take the under. Texas wins in a close spread win 38-20.
Baylor (+14.5) over OU..That was a pretty ugly game OU won last week at Kansas. And I think this game is going to be the same way. OU's win and second half spurt in that game was a direct result of a very inept Kansas offense that simply kept their defense on the field too long... Period. I don't think OU is going to get quite that good of a gift this week. Baylor is a better offensive team. And a similar defensive team (rated #27). Although far from great, their offense is good enough to move the chains enough to give their defense a decent rest. And this Baylor defense isn't the Bears defense of the past. Their linebackers and DB's will run to the ball and get after you. And ex NFL player and HC Morriss instills a lot of toughness in this team. In his press conference this week Morriss said "Nebraska simply beat us up front on both lines". So that doesn't give Baylor a chance against OU right? Don't believe everything you hear. Don't tell Texas A&M or Iowa State about Baylor having inferior lines. This team is pretty stout up front and they've got the size. They got up against a Nebraska team last week tha simply executed their schemes better than Baylor. Morriss is a smart coach. I wouldn't expect that to happen 2 weeks in a row against a less advanced OU offense than Nebraska. Baylor is 8-0 ATS spread after one or more consecutive losses against the spread the last 3 seasons under Morriss. Last week qualifies this strong trend. OU on the other hand IS improving. They are a young team that's taking 2 steps forward and one step back every week. Their defense is coming along fine. Their rated #12 in the country. But I see a little of what I saw in the first half last week against Kansas happening this week with Baylor. I was reluctant to even give 6 points last week. But we're talking 14.5 points this week. That's 3 scores. And that's getting up there when your talking about 2 average teams going against each other. I favor the less talented but more veteran well coached Baylor team here. Good defenses travel well. And I think it will keep Baylor in the game. This is their first time on TV this year. And I think they'll be giving OU their best shot. OU wins, but's it no runaway. 27-17
Colorado and Kansas take the OVER (43)...The Buffs faced the #3 defense in the country last week. Kansas faced the #12 defense last week. Although both of these teams have good defenses. Neither are as good as what they just faced. Kansas hasn't scored a TD in 9 quarters. But I think they'll have their QB a little more in sync with a now full game under his belt. And after seeing the Buffs against Texas, I don't think their nearly as fast in their secondary and linebackers as OU was last week against Kansas. Colorado on the other hand scored 17 points on the road against a good defense. And they've had their offense in full gear for the last 3 weeks now. I expect them to put up at leat 30 points or more here. Which gives me them an excellent chance to hit the over. This Buff offense is a lot more advanced than the OU offense Kansas faced last week. And I believe the score will show it. I really like this play. Take the over (43)
OSU (+15) at Iowa State...This Iowa State team is the hardest luck team in the Big 12. They could easily be 6-0 if it wasn't for some very untimely mistakes by their offense. Last week a fumble and an uinterception returned for td's. Two redzone fumbles inside the 10 yardline against Baylor. And a very close overtime loss to Nebraska. But the one thing every Iowa State game has in common. They don't score a lot of points. 28 is the highest total that they've had in lined games. It's asking a lot for a Big 12 North team to win by 15 points this way against a Big 12 South team. OSU on the other hand has been pitiful on offense. 7 turnovers last week made that Texas A&M game lopsided. I expect a little better effort by QB Pena this week in his second road game in a row. And despite last week's score OSU has a little better defense than what the numbers show. This again is a double digit game where a team has to score 3 times to your 0 to beat you. And that's asking a lot in the Big 12. Taking OSU to cover in a low scoring game. Iowa State wins 24-13
Texas A&M (-2.5) over Kansas State...This is the only Big 12 game this week where the road team is favored. Is this going to be a Cat trap? A&M has been erratic at best. And Kansas State hasn't been very good on either defense or offense. So this is a tough game to guage. This is a hope game for me. I'm hoping the Cats are a little down after being swatted by Texas Tech last week. And I'm hoping Texas A&M got a nice ego boost from their win against OSU last week at home. Although they haven't showed it yet, their personnel says that Texas A&M is the second best team in the Big 12. And after their last blowout roadtrip to Colorado 2 weeks ago, I think the Aggies will be a little bit more focused this week. But I sure wouldn't want to give away more than a field goal here. Texas A&M wins in a close one 27-23
I'll be back tomorrow with a recap and a possible late play. Good luck this weekend. :toast:
arty: :toast:
