GoSooners Big 12 Plays Of The Week For 11-1

[GoSooners]

* 7-9
** 34-25
*** 14-16-1
**** 6-2

This is maybe the biggest week for the Big 12 this season. And it's all based on one game between Texas and Texas Tech..Should Texas win, it means a fairly easy road to the Big 12 title game and probably the BCS title game. But if they should lose to Tech, it would litarally turn this conference upside down. It means we would have 4 teams in the South Division with just one loss a piece. Tech would then have control over it's own destiny. But if Tech should get beat by OSU the next week or to OU on the road, and we end up with what possibly could be as much as a three way tie in the South, then who goes to the Big 12 Championship game? You can't send the team with the best overall record because neither Texas, Tech, OSU or OU have lost a game outside of their conference. So each team will have identical 11-1 records..What then, flip a coin? We've never had this problem before in the South Division. But with Texas Tech and OSU quickly closing the gap on the big two Texas and OU for the first time, this is bound to happen sooner or later...This year maybe? We'll find out Saturday night.


Colorado at Texas A&M...This looks like a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Buffs are a hot mess right now because of their quarterback(s) situation and their OL problems. And I'm sure by now their confidence problems after getting steamrolled by Mizzou 58-0.. They are a team who simply doesn't have enough depth to be able to afford injuries. And have had more than their fair share of key injuries with their brutal schedule.. They are playing a team on the improve on offense. And looking for their first Big 12 victory at home. Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson is now on the same page with his receivers. And he's coming off a big game on the road in which the Aggies rolled up over 500 yards of offense. The Buffs do have a pretty good pass defense. But Johnson is so elusive with being able to make plays on the run, that I don't see how Colorado is going to be able to hold him down on a consistent basis..Texas Tech couldn't. And they have a pretty comparable defense to CU.. The Aggies have averaged 33 points a game in the last 4 games. I except to see about that kind of point production here..I want to say though that I would make this a bigger play if it wasn't for two reasons: (1) The Aggies still lack a defense. Luckily their playing a team who hasn't scored more than 14 points against Big 12 competetion. And were shut out last week. And (2) Literally everybody and their brother-in-law is on Texas A&M this week. And this always bothers me..Hopefully the public gets one of their rare wins together..Taking Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **

 

[fadethepublic1]

Rushing dogs...

Pittsburgh +4.5
Tennessee +6

Correct me if I'm wrong my friend.

As always... aloha.

 

[GoSooners]

Rushing dogs...

Pittsburgh +4.5
Tennessee +6

Correct me if I'm wrong my friend.

As always... aloha.

Yes, both of these teams are on my list. I've got about a dozen running dogs this week. The only Big 12 team that is a borderline running dog is Texas Tech... By the way both Marshall and Buffalo were also two teams who were borderline running dogs, and both won this week.

 

[gynecologist]

Hey Patrick.. I like A&M myself GL

 

[Addict101]

I'm done with Tennessee after this last week. It just looks like they've given up on Fulmer. I'm looking at OU -21ish and Kentucky/Miss St under 38.5 as a couple strong plays. I'm guessing you'll have a play on the NU/OU game, and I don't see any reason why OU doesn't win this one 49-21 or around there. I was somewhat surprised when NU covered @ TTU in their first road game of the year, and I just dont see them repeating that in primetime this Saturday. The UK/MSU under play is just playing against two pathetic offenses where one might not break 10 points.

Also, consider going small on the WSU/Stanford under this week. I made a thread about it earlier, as I see the game being alot like the WSU/UCLA game a few weeks ago. Every WSU total has been around 55 in every Pac-10 game because the books feel that the opponent WSU is up against could very well cover that number. Logic says that the books feel that WSU can put up 14-20 points this week, and I'd be somewhat shocked if they did.

Good luck this week GS.

 

[GoSooners]

Hey Patrick.. I like A&M myself GL

Thanks Gyno...I hope you kill em this week.:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

I'm done with Tennessee after this last week. It just looks like they've given up on Fulmer. I'm looking at OU -21ish and Kentucky/Miss St under 38.5 as a couple strong plays. I'm guessing you'll have a play on the NU/OU game, and I don't see any reason why OU doesn't win this one 49-21 or around there. I was somewhat surprised when NU covered @ TTU in their first road game of the year, and I just dont see them repeating that in primetime this Saturday. The UK/MSU under play is just playing against two pathetic offenses where one might not break 10 points.

Also, consider going small on the WSU/Stanford under this week. I made a thread about it earlier, as I see the game being alot like the WSU/UCLA game a few weeks ago. Every WSU total has been around 55 in every Pac-10 game because the books feel that the opponent WSU is up against could very well cover that number. Logic says that the books feel that WSU can put up 14-20 points this week, and I'd be somewhat shocked if they did.

Good luck this week GS.

No , I'm not playing Tennessee under any circumstances..I believe Fulmer is a lame duck coach with a lame team. I'll be on OU. But at this number it will be small. I haven't had a chance to look at the totals yet..I'll be doing that tomorrow..It stands to reason though that Kentcuky and Miss St. would be low scoring..My only concern about that game would be Kentucky's defensive injuries. Who do you like in the Cal-Oregon game? Oregon is one of my running dogs this week. But I'm afraid their going to need more than 3 points to cover this spread. I don't really feel like the Ducks have a good enough defense to win a game like this on the road..And the home team has been gold this year in the PAC.

 

[Addict101]

Oregon-Cal is a tough game to cap just because you don't know which teams are going to show up. Oregon has a ton of momentum after blowing out ASU, and there's no reason why they can't go in and beat Cal in Berkeley. I have a small lean towards the UO ML. If the solid Oregon defense shows up, there is no reason why can't can't win this game by at least 10.

 

[gynecologist]

Oregon-Cal is a tough game to cap just because you don't know which teams are going to show up. Oregon has a ton of momentum after blowing out ASU, and there's no reason why they can't go in and beat Cal in Berkeley. I have a small lean towards the UO ML. If the solid Oregon defense shows up, there is no reason why can't can't win this game by at least 10.

I dont see how Oregon has anymore momentum than Cal.. Do you really trust Oregons D on the road against a very capable offense?

 

[GoSooners]

Another thing that bothers me about Oregon is their platoon of QB's they've used this year...If Cal stacks the box on Oregon and slows down or shuts down their running game, can whatever QB Oregon is using beat them? Cal also has a big advantage in turnover margin with +10 to Oregon's 0. The defense has been winning games all year for Cal. Their only giving up about 300 yards per game and causing turnovers (4 int's last week against UCLA)..Pretty good for a Pac-10 team.

 

[fadethepublic1]

No , I'm not playing Tennessee under any circumstances..I believe Fulmer is a lame duck coach with a lame team.

I know I'm committing suicide, but I'm on the Vols this weekend. I believe that there is value in this game cuz everyone is writing them off. I have them losing only by a FG. I also know that Fulmer's on his way out, but I just can't help not playing them and missing the train. Let me know what you think bout it.

As always... aloha.

 

[soonerfanjames]

* 7-9
** 34-25
*** 14-16-1
**** 6-2

This is maybe the biggest week for the Big 12 this season. And it's all based on one game between Texas and Texas Tech..Should Texas win, it means a fairly easy road to the Big 12 title game and probably the BCS title game. But if they should lose to Tech, it would litarally turn this conference upside down. It means we would have 4 teams in the South Division with just one loss a piece. Tech would then have control over it's own destiny. But if Tech should get beat by OSU the next week or to OU on the road, and we end up with what possibly could be as much as a three way tie in the South, then who goes to the Big 12 Championship game? You can't send the team with the best overall record because neither Texas, Tech, OSU or OU have lost a game outside of their conference. So each team will have identical 11-1 records..What then, flip a coin? We've never had this problem before in the South Division. But with Texas Tech and OSU quickly closing the gap on the big two Texas and OU for the first time, this is bound to happen sooner or later...This year maybe? We'll find out Saturday night.


Colorado at Texas A&M...This looks like a classic case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Buffs are a hot mess right now because of their quarterback(s) situation and their OL problems. And I'm sure by now their confidence problems after getting steamrolled by Mizzou 58-0.. They are a team who simply doesn't have enough depth to be able to afford injuries. And have had more than their fair share of key injuries with their brutal schedule.. They are playing a team on the improve on offense. And looking for their first Big 12 victory at home. Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson is now on the same page with his receivers. And he's coming off a big game on the road in which the Aggies rolled up over 500 yards of offense. The Buffs do have a pretty good pass defense. But Johnson is so elusive with being able to make plays on the run, that I don't see how Colorado is going to be able to hold him down on a consistent basis..Texas Tech couldn't. And they have a pretty comparable defense to CU.. The Aggies have averaged 33 points a game in the last 4 games. I except to see about that kind of point production here..I want to say though that I would make this a bigger play if it wasn't for two reasons: (1) The Aggies still lack a defense. Luckily their playing a team who hasn't scored more than 14 points against Big 12 competetion. And were shut out last week. And (2) Literally everybody and their brother-in-law is on Texas A&M this week. And this always bothers me..Hopefully the public gets one of their rare wins together..Taking Texas A&M (-3) over Colorado **

If Tech beats Texas, and OU beats Tech ( assume Tech, OU, and Ut win out).. It would be a 3 way tie. The champion would come down to highest ranked BCS team (most likely OU).. Tech still has OSU (as does OU). OU needs a 3-way tie or UT to lose twice. I could see Tech beating UT and lose to OSU. This would give the Big 12 South to UT. The dream senario for Ou fans is UT to win out and Ala/Penn St lose a game. This would possible set up a dream re-match.

 

[Addict101]

I dont see how Oregon has anymore momentum than Cal.. Do you really trust Oregons D on the road against a very capable offense?

You could call the ASU offense capable and the Oregon D was all over them.


Oregon is 6-2 yet it seems like they are a .500 team. They find ways to get it done. This is obviously a big game for both teams, but I'd say it's bigger for the Ducks because almost all of their wins are against bad teams. I still think its a virtual coinflip, but my gut says Oregon gets out with a W.

 

[GoSooners]

Nebraska at Oklahoma...The best rivalry in the Big 8 & 12 is renewed this week with the Huskers coming to town. Nebraska comes in with a 5-3 record. But the problem I have is none of the Huskers wins have come against quality teams..They played their first 5 games at home this year..With the first 3 games and wins coming against non-BCS conference teams. And their only two other wins came against the Big 12 cellar dwellars Iowa State and Baylor. Nebraska did play their best game of the season 3 weeks ago against Texas Tech, who was coming off a 30 point win at Kansas State..The Huskers played realitvely mistake free football, and took what I think was a way overconfident TT team down to the wire.. But the difference here with OU is the Huskers are facing a much better defensive front who has been able to get to the QB on a regular basis. In fact OU's knocked 3 QB's out of games this year. If Ganz is given the time, he can probably have some success against the OU secondary. But here's the deal with OU this week: The defense has gotten flak all week for their performance in the KSU game. Talk radio has gone crazy with people calling in saying that OSU is the new kings of the state in football. And OU is washed up. Don't think these players and coaches don't hear this stuff just like we do. Some of the mistakes OU made last week like missed tackles, going for interceptions instead of hitting the receivers, and basic fundamnetals can be corrected. And I believe they will..I look for a much better defensive performance out of OU this week. Pelini has got his defense playing a little more agressive football this year, but Nebraska isn't causing turnovers. (Huskers -6 in turnover margin to OU's +10). So I see Bradford and company pretty much having their way. This isn't a big play for me because we have two old boyhood friends coaching against each other. And I don't see Stoops rubbing it in if or when it gets out of hand..But I do think OU does just enough to cover this spread and improve or maintain their BCS standing.. Taking OU (-22) over Nebraska **

 

[jbragg10]

love the a&m pick myself.

 

[GoSooners]

If Tech beats Texas, and OU beats Tech ( assume Tech, OU, and Ut win out).. It would be a 3 way tie. The champion would come down to highest ranked BCS team (most likely OU).. Tech still has OSU (as does OU). OU needs a 3-way tie or UT to lose twice. I could see Tech beating UT and lose to OSU. This would give the Big 12 South to UT. The dream senario for Ou fans is UT to win out and Ala/Penn St lose a game. This would possible set up a dream re-match.

Do you know this for a fact as a qualification for Big 12 Championship game, because I really haven't heard anything on this subject. In that case the only two teams out of this bunch who probably control their own desitiny is Texas and Texas Tech. As far as BCS standings go, it's still a little tricky if all of these teams start beating up on each other..If Tech beats Texas, but loses to OU will they then be rated below Texas? If Texas loses and OSU wins out over Texas Tech and OU will they be rated higher than Texas? I think this is the million dollar question..In many people's minds OSU could have won that game at Texas, and probably think they could beat them on a neutral field. So OSU could get the nod in the voting if it comes down to that.

 

[Boxslayer]

GS,

Any thoughts on this Tech/Texas game?

I like Tech here, but wanted to get another opinion.

 

[nd2000]

I'm on A&M and Nebraska. I'll believe OU's defensive improvement when i see it. It's one thing to talk about getting tougher and an entirely different thing to actually go out there and do it.

 

[GoSooners]

GS,

Any thoughts on this Tech/Texas game?

I like Tech here, but wanted to get another opinion.

Box...I like Tech if I can just get another point or two. I really should have pulled the trigger earlier in the week when it was at 6. But with the line going down like it is it's starting to look like the Mizzou/Texas line. And I'd be lying if I said that didn't bother me a little. As for this game, I don't see it being anything like the lower scoring OSU-Texas game last week. I can see alot of points scored here...The deal with both of these teams is neither one has a great running game like OSU had, so i can see each team getting around 9 or 10 possessions a piece and playing ping pong with the scoreboard. This is another matchup between two Heisman candidates..And Harrell is a highly underrated system QB. He's going to give the young Texas secondary problems when or if he gets into his rhythm. I have a feeling he'll let it all hang out. He's a senior with his last chance to beat Texas. So I can definitely see a close high scoring game between two premier QB's.

 

[Boxslayer]

Box...I like Tech if I can just get another point or two. I really should have pulled the trigger earlier in the week when it was at 6. But with the line going down like it is it's starting to look like the Mizzou/Texas line. And I'd be lying if I said that didn't bother me a little. As for this game, I don't see it being anything like the lower scoring OSU-Texas game last week. I can see alot of points scored here...The deal with both of these teams is neither one has a great running game like OSU had, so i can see each team getting around 9 or 10 possessions a piece and playing ping pong with the scoreboard. This is another matchup between two Heisman candidates..And Harrell is a highly underrated system QB. He's going to give the young Texas secondary problems when or if he gets into his rhythm. I have a feeling he'll let it all hang out. He's a senior with his last chance to beat Texas. So I can definitely see a close high scoring game between two premier QB's.

I agree with all of that.

I see some ping pong happening. I have seen Tech play a lot of games this year and I think they look like they are for real and I always come away impressed with them.

I think Tech's defense is underrated. People think their defense is horrible and I think it is a decent unit - certainly not world beaters. But good enough to keep them in a game like this and make a handful of stops, which is all they may need. Tech's defense is holding OPP to 19 PPG at home.

The main factor I am trying to figure out is this: Tech's offense #2 in the country for least sacks given up, while the strength of the Longhorns is their pass rush #2 sacking the QB. What gives here is the answer to the game. Harrell hasn't been touched this year, he has all day in the pocket in some games, and if he is allowed to do that in this game, Tech may blow Texas right out of this game. If Harrell is getting flustered, getting hit often, and is on his back, Tech's offense will sputter big time and Texas will blow Tech out.

I really don't see a close game here either way unless the pressure on Harrell is very inconsistent because I think both teams are going to see something they havnt seen yet this year - for Tech they may see a pass rush that throws their whole offense out of rhythm. Texas may see an near unstoppable offense and a ridiculous environment against them - the likes of which they havnt seen this year either.