That is possible, but 5Dimes is a Mickey Mouse book compared to anything in Vegas. Their maximum wagers are ridiculously low. Vegas rarely pays attention to anything off shore books do anyways because the sheer number of people who playin a Vegas Sports Book is much larger than the people who 0lay in any one off-shore book making it
It is, but again the problem is this. How many different lines have you seen in Off Shore Books for any given game? With the very limited number of people who play in any particular off shore book, the lines can change drastically. I have seen off shore books with 70% of their action on team "A" and others that have 70% of their action on team "B". The lines can differ greatly between the two books. IN Vegas, the odds are just about the same. You may see a 1/2 point difference and that is to simply draw players into thaqt book and casino. Add on the fact that the average player in Vegas plays much more than the average off shore player, you can see why Vegas odds are really not affected by what the off shore books do. The Nugget could care less about off shore books. They will get together with William Hill and other major books in Las Vegas to make sure that everyone is on the same page.
The Golden Nugget lines will be out on June 26. I'm not playing a whole lot of these games because I don't want to have my money tied up. But here are a few games and situational spots I'm looking at.
Kansas State +7 vs Okie State...But I would take a little less than this number. KSU has a very strong trend of playing tough in Big 12 conference openers. And OSU will be coming home in a bit of a sandwich spot after just playing Texas and before traveling to Morgantown the next week. KSU will also be off a bye week in which they have an 8-1 ATS streak going in the last 2 years.
Penn State -2.5 vs Michigan..It would be nice if I can get this under a FG. This is a classic overlook spot for Michigan being the second road game in a row with Ohio State on board the next week. And this will be PSU's last home game of the year. There is a decent chance that PSU will have just one loss (to tOSU) by the time these teams meet. If that is the case then this line will almost certainly be higher than this number at kickoff.
Missouri +11 vs Arkansas...Guys, it's unreal how many scheduling advantages Missouri has this year. They could very well end up being the first P5 team that I've seen in the last 10 years win 8 or more games ATS 3 years in a row. This just doesn't happen in big time football very often. But Mizzou continues to have favorable scheduling and are able to somehow fly under the radar every year. Now if they get as good of lines this season as I think they will, I believe they can make me some money. With this game it will be the last game of the season for Arkansas. The chances are pretty good that Arkansas will have already earned their bowl bid and will know where they are going, but at the same time they will most likely be out of the running for their division title. This all means that we might not get the motivation in this game from Arkansas that we normally would if it had been played earlier in the season. Mizzou carries a 16-4 ATS road record since 2011. And they could very well still be in the running for the SEC East. The possible motivational factor from both sides makes me want to take a chance here even though this game is a long way from June 26.
I've got a few more in mind that I'll post later...
Kansas State +7 vs Okie State...But I would take a little less than this number. KSU has a very strong trend of playing tough in Big 12 conference openers. And OSU will be coming home in a bit of a sandwich spot after just playing Texas and before traveling to Morgantown the next week. KSU will also be off a bye week in which they have an 8-1 ATS streak going in the last 2 years.
Penn State -2.5 vs Michigan..It would be nice if I can get this under a FG. This is a classic overlook spot for Michigan being the second road game in a row with Ohio State on board the next week. And this will be PSU's last home game of the year. There is a decent chance that PSU will have just one loss (to tOSU) by the time these teams meet. If that is the case then this line will almost certainly be higher than this number at kickoff.
Missouri +11 vs Arkansas...Guys, it's unreal how many scheduling advantages Missouri has this year. They could very well end up being the first P5 team that I've seen in the last 10 years win 8 or more games ATS 3 years in a row. This just doesn't happen in big time football very often. But Mizzou continues to have favorable scheduling and are able to somehow fly under the radar every year. Now if they get as good of lines this season as I think they will, I believe they can make me some money. With this game it will be the last game of the season for Arkansas. The chances are pretty good that Arkansas will have already earned their bowl bid and will know where they are going, but at the same time they will most likely be out of the running for their division title. This all means that we might not get the motivation in this game from Arkansas that we normally would if it had been played earlier in the season. Mizzou carries a 16-4 ATS road record since 2011. And they could very well still be in the running for the SEC East. The possible motivational factor from both sides makes me want to take a chance here even though this game is a long way from June 26.
I've got a few more in mind that I'll post later...
GS, I have been lost trying to figure out Missouri since the Tigers joined the SEC. Missouri went 5-7 in its first SEC season and then just took off. I now understand the SEC East power vacuum left by Florida, Tennessee and South Carolina last year...however, Pinkel got his team ready and won back-to-back division crowns.
I clearly have Georgia as the East favorite but learning from the past, certainly wouldn't count Missouri out. This team could be 6-0 going into the October 17 Georgia game. Win that one and who knows..........................
I clearly have Georgia as the East favorite but learning from the past, certainly wouldn't count Missouri out. This team could be 6-0 going into the October 17 Georgia game. Win that one and who knows..........................
I don't don't doubt that Georgia and Tennessee will be better this year. But what counts is how much respect (or not) that Vegas gives Missouri with these lines. And like I said, Missouri catches some of these teams in some bad spots. For instance Georgia has to play Missouri after they play Bama and Tennessee back to back. Those will be physical games for Georgia. Then Missouri comes in and plays them just before Georgia plays Florida. Would you take Georgia in this instance if they are going to be giving Mizzou double digits on the spread?
interested to see the aTm/Bama spread. 5 dimes skipped this game...
really awful spot for Bama.
1- coming off their two most physical games of the season b2b weeks at UGA & home vs ARK and no rest before away game in College Station
2- aTm bye week before this game
3- revenge for what had to have been one of the most embarrassing losses in aTm history (59-0)
4- big change in style from UGA/ARK (physical, running teams) to aTm (90+ plays, short passes)
really awful spot for Bama.
1- coming off their two most physical games of the season b2b weeks at UGA & home vs ARK and no rest before away game in College Station
2- aTm bye week before this game
3- revenge for what had to have been one of the most embarrassing losses in aTm history (59-0)
4- big change in style from UGA/ARK (physical, running teams) to aTm (90+ plays, short passes)
Completely agree with Texas A&M vs Bama. Really tough spot for Bama. It wouldn't be completely out of the realm for this to be a pickem game or possibly A&M favored when these two teams meet. So A&M + any points here is welcome. This A&M team reminds me a little of TCU last year. They have a high number of starters back and their scheduling is just about perfect for them this year with only 3 of their games being played outside of the state of Texas. And one of those games is against Vanderbilt. If A&M survives their pickem game against Arkansas early in the year they could make a good run. Especially ATS. They are 16/1 to win the SEC title. It might be worth taking a stab at for a small wager...Just sayin'
You are not going to get K-State +7 @ Okie State. That is simply not going to happen, especially when K-State goes into that game at 3-0. You may not get points at all if Okie State loses the previous week to Texas.
I have no clue what the line will be for the Michigan-Penn State game because it is near the end of the season. Way too much can happen between now and then. Ditto Missouri at Arkansas, which is played in week last of the regular season. If you can get 11 1/2 points on some GOY wager, grab it, because you will have no idea what the line is going to end up being, but the odds say that it will be less than 10 points. I am thinking that these are your dream games with dream odds. You may get Penn State at -2 1/2, but the others define the word "dream". Planning on going to Vegas on the 26th?
I have no clue what the line will be for the Michigan-Penn State game because it is near the end of the season. Way too much can happen between now and then. Ditto Missouri at Arkansas, which is played in week last of the regular season. If you can get 11 1/2 points on some GOY wager, grab it, because you will have no idea what the line is going to end up being, but the odds say that it will be less than 10 points. I am thinking that these are your dream games with dream odds. You may get Penn State at -2 1/2, but the others define the word "dream". Planning on going to Vegas on the 26th?
Your trying awfully hard to be a contrarian, but the problem is your not thinking outside the box. Do you think Arkansas will win the SEC West and will have everything to play for when these two teams meet? If you don't like me then this is probably going to be a decent bet at around Mizzou +10 or +11. None of us know for sure what these lines will be, we're not pretending to. Hell, it may not even be posted as a GOY. We're throwing theories out there, which is what this board is about. There's nothing wrong with that. But common sense says it will be around DD. Arkansas is more likely going to win 7 or 8 games this year, and they'll probably know they have a Cotton Bowl or similar bowl bid by the time these two teams meet. Missouri will probably be playing for a decent bowl or still be alive in the SEC East. It's pretty simple really. Sure this game is late in the season and there could be injuries etc. that changes this bet. But that goes for ANY GOY you play. Neither of these teams are Bluebloods, and neither of them are particularly deep teams. Being in the tougher and physical SEC West, I would think Arkansas has a better chance of wearing down by the end of the season than Missouri. You might want to think about these things before you start throwing out off the cuff remarks. As for KSU, I've already stated (if you had read it) that I would take a little less than +7. A +4 or +5 line is fine with me as i think it will be a very close game.
Sooners, can't see anyway Bama won't be -7 or more for this one. Tricky, difficult road game but even with a proven veteran defensive coordinator joining A&M....SEC type players are not there. Ain't no way they match up with Alabama....UNLESS, key Tide players are hurt. Otherwise, this will be just another toughass game in the SEC where the best team wins.
Can cause some caution for a Bama fan though.....
