GMan 2016 NFL Year Long Thread

[gmaryanski]

For those of you who also play the NCAA, this is going to look similar to my yearly thread over there (nothing wrong with a little cut and paste). Bear with me. And to the rest of you strict NFL gamblers:
Thank GOD it's back, boys! After months without football we finally have lines to peruse, trends to track, and late TD's scored against us to agonize about @). And it is a sweet agony that we all enjoy...

Though I haven't posted in a bit, and have never consistently thrown my picks out there for the viewing public over a full season, this year a buddy and I are doing some sports podcasts (heavy topic? sports gambling of course), and I figured i I am willing to put my plays on YouTube, I should giveback to the RX for the years of excellent data they have provided me.
Standard disclaimers apply- I'm no pro, and I will be the first to admit that I do this for entertainment- meaning I don't just load up on one game a week and ignore the rest of the board. I like to have plenty of action in a day, and if I can make a little bit of money year over year, all the better. No hard figures for you, and I'm never going to try to sell you anything, but in the last 3 years of college and pro, I was Plus 30-50 units a year. Take that for what it is, follow fade,or otherwise ridicule.

Each Thursday (if there are games in my package on Thursday night) or Friday, I'll try to update this same thread with my NFL 4 pack (I do a 6-pack in college, but just not enough games to justify that in the NFL), track last weeks performance, and see where we stand. I generally use a 3*, 2*, 1* system- for me that equates to 300/200/100, but use it as you see fit for your budget. Though I will not include exotics like Pars, Reverses, and Teasers in these plays, I do play them pretty regularly (except teasers- NEVER play a college teaser), and there is value if you find the right line (mine come from my local, FYI).

With all that said, here are my first set of plays for week one:

3*- Texans -6 over Bears- new QB,dynamic offense, and the emotional return of JJ Watt will bring the fans into a lather at home vs a Bears team with no identity and a turnover prone QB who always seems DYING to make the big mistake. Give me the Texans by 2 TD's.
3*- Steelers/Redskins over 50 1/2- I think this is a track meet. The Redskins are better offensively, especially in the passing game, than they are being given credit for. And though the Steelers seem to always be a media darling, while their offense is awesome and fun to watch, their defense is beyond suspect. I think this one will take 35 to win it, and since I expect a competitive game this should soar over.
1*- Colts Team Total over 27 1/2- breaking my own rul and playing team totals in the NFL (been VERY good at them in college and awful in the pros historically), but I don't think either of these teams can stop anyone. The Colts will have to score to win, and I expect them to win (but not sure by more than 4). With that, let's call it 34-31
1*- Bengals/Jets over 41 1/2- honestly, betting this one on general principle. That total is the lowest on the board, I know Hue JAckson left by Cincy still has tools and the Civil War re-enacter (AKA Fitzpatrick) works well in the Chan Gailey system. 24-21, Bengals.

That's it for week one. Good luck with all your action, look forward to any feedback, glowing preferred but negative expected face)(*^% and accepted. Enjoy the return of football, boys.
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man..........BOL with all your action this week...........enjoy the games and have a profitable season.............indy

 

[gmaryanski]

Now that is how to start. A smarter man than I am would retire now- but where is the fun in that?
3*- 2-0, +6.0
1*- 2-0, +2.0
Overall 4-0, +8.0 units. Hopefully some people followed and made a little cheddar. Hope to have continued success in week 2.

 

[gmaryanski]

Though it seems like I am having a running conversation with myself (not the first time- I always get the most positive responses when I talk to myself), figured I'd move on the week 2 and try to keep the momentum going. Have to get this one in early, as I am on the Thursday night game (which is rare for me- usually awful games with lots of variables). With that said:

3*- Redskins Team Total over 24- Their offense had plenty of chances last week, and just didn't capitalize. They are too talented offensively to be held down, especially by a poor defense. I expect 30+ out of them
2*- Jags +3 over SD- I am a noted hater of Philip Rivers, and just don't think they are a very good team. The Jags are much improved, and could go either way after a close loss to the Pack. I am betting they nut up and win outright- I'll be dropping a little money line play on this as well. 27-23 Jags
1*- Jets PK over the Bills- Thursday night is often a war of attrition, and the Bills are banged up at WR (Watkins won't be 100% even if he goes), Cordy Glenn is out on the O-Line, and their defense is still thin. Meanwhie the Jets get their stud D-Line back intact. Low scoring, boring game that I expect the Jets to pull out- 19-13, NYJ
1* Titans +5 1/2 over Detroit- Without a couple turnovers, the Titans beat the Vikings and have all the confidence in the world. I also just don't think the Lions are good enough to lay this much on anyone. Let's say 23-20 Detroit

Look forward to any input and feedback you have- and good luck this week, boys.
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man...........nicely done last week..........BOL with all your weekend action............indy

 

[gmaryanski]

On the surface, splitting and going 2-2 isn't terrible- except when you lose ALL of the higher value games- as I did. That said:
3*- 2-1, +2.7
2*- 0-1, -2.2
1*- 4-0, +4.0
Overall 6-2, +4.5. We'll try to hit em harder this week
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Seems like I am just doing this for myself, but hopefully someone out there is getting some benefit. With that, I'll keep going with Week 3 NFL:

3*- Cots -2 over Chargers- add my hatred for Phil Rivers to the desperate need of the Colts to win and stop ANYONE, I think Luck pulls out a shootout- call it 37-31, Colts
2*- Packers -7 over Detroit- I know, I know. I've been watching the Pack as well,and their offense looks repulsive. They are going to lay it on someone, and the Lions are not that good defensively, playing without Ansah rushing the passer. I think the Lions will score, but not as much as A-Rod. 35-24 Pack
2*- Jags +1 over Ravens- I think this is a shootout, and the Jags. I love to bet on them (and lost a huge Money Line payout with their loss last week), so I'll give them one more shot. 27-23 Jags
2*- Redskins +4 1/2 over the Giants. You like that? Not so much, if the "that" in question is the Skins offense so far. The Giants revamped D has done well, but something tells me the Skins passing game gets untracked, and they win this one outright. 24-20, Skins.

Good luck to anyone out there following (or fading)
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man..........nicely done YTD..........good luck this weekend.........indy

 

[gmaryanski]

I will take another strong week, and by game time I actually would have had a win on the Jags (though they are just a terrible team- bye bye, Bradley). In any event, after a 3-1 week here's where we stand:
3*- 3-1, +5.7
2*- 2-2, -0.4
1*- 4-0, +4.0
Total 9-3, +9.3 overall. I will take that any day of the week, hope some people are making some $$$ while it lasts.
On to next week
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man............nicely done............continued success..............indy

 

[YUCCFOO]

keep em coming gman. nicely done.

 

[gmaryanski]

Thanks, Indy and Yucc. I'll take it as long as I can. I've actually found that posting helps keep me honest and not playing EVERY game. Let's hope for continued success...

 

[gmaryanski]

On to week 4 where we look to keep cashing and ward off that big drain weekend. Here's what we have:

3*- Carolina -3 @ Atlanta- Hate playing road faves, but the Panthers are angry and hungry, not to mention MUCH better than the Falcons. Add to the fact that Ryan historically plays poorly against them and hasn't faced consistent pressure this year, and I see a fairly easy PAnthers win on the road. Call it 31-20, as the defense gets untracked as well
3*- Jags Team Total over 23- I shudder to think how much I'd be up if I removed the word Jaguar from my gambling lexicon. But I remain undaunted. This is the type of stage, sloppy defenses, lose type of play that they thrive in, at least to score points. Robinson goes wild, Bortles throws at least as many TD's as picks (for a change) and the Jags put up 30 (probably 3 less than the Colts...)
2*- Cleveland +7 1/2 over Washington- Not calling for the money line winner, but I just don't think Washington is that good. They should win, but Cleveland, with Hue Jackson getting creative, Terrelle Pryor imitating Slash and Josh Gordon having a few beers (sorry, couldn't resist the gratuitous shot) the Browns should stay within a TD in an entertaining game, call it 34-28 Skins
1*- Arizona -8 over LA- I think the Cards are good. I think the Rams stink. Sometimes, when things have not appeared that way thus far, this is all the analysis you need. Both teams have a regression/progression to their norm. Cards in a beatdown, 30-13.

Hope the positive mojo continues all, and BOL with your action

 

[indiana]

G/man......continue those winning ways this week...........indy

 

[gmaryanski]

My first real rough week, The Cleveland loser was a killer- they were winning/in it the whole game, then remembered they were the Browns. 1-3 for the week, season looks like this:
3*- 4-2, +5.4
2*- 2-3, -2.6
1*- 4-1, +2.9

Overall still pretty solid- 10-6, +5.7
Let's get back on the positive side of the ledger. Back with week 5 Thursday or Friday.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Back for week 5, and I will caution everyone- as much as I would like to keep the momentum rolling, I also want to be smart. That said, I don't like this card AT ALL, too many ebb and flow games and the potential for letdowns that can throw off an otherwise vast difference in talent. As such, my amounts may look a little lighter this week. Here we go:

2*- SD over 24 Team Total- don't love betting team totals in the pro's, but I think SD will struggle to keep Oakland and Amari Cooper in particular at bay given their injuries, and SD always plays them tough. Call it 31-30, Oakland
2*- Cincy -1 @ Dallas- I know the world thinks Dak is the second coming (and I like him too, despite hating the Cowboys), but I've had a good handle on them this year, and think the underrated Cincy defense confuses him enough to eke out a win. 23-17, Bengals
1*- NYJ +7 over Pitt- just too many points against a better NYJ defense, and Fitzpatrick can't throw 100 interceptions every week, can he? Also expect a higher scoring game. 30-24, Steelers
1*- Cards -3 (buying the hook) @ SF- I think the loss of Palmer may help, though Stanton is dreadful. Just run the ball and beat a severely inferior team, or your season is over 23-17, Cardinals.

Good luck all, I'll be treading lightly.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Week 5 was a push, and I was all over the map. Couldn't have been more right on the SD team total, or more wrong on the Cowboys (eventually I will believe in them). After a 2-2 week, 5 weeks in we look like this:

3*- 4-2, +5.4
2*- 3-4, -2.8
1*- 5-2, +2.8

12-8 overall, +5.4 units. Still making money, but let's try to pick it up for week 6. Back with picks before the weekend (DNP on Thursday)
GMan

 

[varkeyboy]

Good work GM!

 

[gmaryanski]

I'll take it so far, Vark- long way to go, and with that on to week 6:

3*- KC pk over Oakland- Big Red is great off of a bye going back to his days in Philly, and Oakland isn't as good as their record. I think this is a fairly easy, 31-23 KC win
2*- Eagles/Skins over 45- This one screams shootout to me. I think both can score on the other, and this is a last possession type game. Let's call it 30-27 Eagles
2*- Seattle -6 1/2 over Atlanta. Atlanta has been excellent- and played a really tough schedule. Russell Wilson and their defense had 2 weeks to get healthy, and this is a classic ebb and flo game that goes against Atlanta after a huge win. I see a pretty dominant 27-16 win for the Hawks
1*- Jags +2 1/2 over Chicago- I like the Jags offense, and insist on betting on them every week. We'll get to see how much the players like Gus Bradley, as every week is a for the job type game.

Good luck with all the action, boys
GMan

 

[TomandJerry]

KC now is -2.......will it go to -3 at game time? seem like line switch to the right side to favor, this is tough game but be honest Oakland defense is too weak if KC really want to win, all they have to do is going for fourth down on short yard from mid field to the Oakland goal line with Charles and Davis. Titans run 170 total yard vs the Raiders, can't imaging Charles and Davis can do. 150 yard at least and Alex Smith short pass keep the clock rolling. KC in control.

good luck Gman.