GMan 2016 College Football Season Thread

[gmaryanski]

Thank GOD it's back, boys! After months without football we finally have lines to peruse, trends to track, and late TD's scored against us to agonize about @). And it is a sweet agony that we all enjoy...

Though I haven't posted in a bit, and have never consistently thrown my picks out there for the viewing public over a full season, this year a buddy and I are doing some sports podcasts (heavy topic? sports gambling of course), and I figured i I am willing to put my plays on YouTube, I should giveback to the RX for the years of excellent data they have provided me.
Standard disclaimers apply- I'm no pro, and I will be the first to admit that I do this for entertainment- meaning I don't just load up on one game a week and ignore the rest of the board. I like to have plenty of action in a day, and if I can make a little bit of money year over year, all the better. No hard figures for you, and I'm never going to try to sell you anything, but in the last 3 years of college and pro, I was Plus 30-50 units a year. Take that for what it is, follow fade,or otherwise ridicule.

Each Thursday (if there are games in my package on Thursday night) or Friday, I'll try to update this same thread with my NCAA 6 pack, track last weeks performance, and see where we stand. I generally use a 3*, 2*, 1* system- for me that equates to 300/200/100, but use it as you see fit for your budget. Though I will not include exotics like Pars, Reverses, and Teasers in these plays, I do play them pretty regularly (except teasers- NEVER play a college teaser), and there is value if you find the right line (mine come from my local, FYI).

With all that said, here are my first set of plays for week one:

3*- Penn St -21 over Kent St- Penn St will be an entirely different offensive team this year, and they will use this weaker opponent to not only showcase their skill players, but build confidence in a young QB and a team that has had it rocky the last few years
3*- We Kentucky, Team Total over 39 1/2- Some of you may not get team totals, but I absolutely LOVE them in college. Last year I hit them at close to a 70% clip (though not in the pros- that hit around 43%, so pick your spots). In any event, We KY is one of those teams that plays tempo, extreme tempo (a play every 12-14 seconds). They lost their record setting QB and TE, but not their mad scientist coach, and that will be all that matters. In my book, any time they are under 40 for a team total, I'll play them
2*- Appalachian St +21 over Tennessee (buy the hook if you have to)- Tennessee is a very trendy team this year, and their offense will score. App St is not as overmatched as you think, and can put up close to 30 on anyone. I think they cover this with relative ease
2*- Colorado St +7 1/2 over Colorado- don't love playing rivalry games, but after my full college analysis I think that Col St wins the MWC this year behind their offense, and no better way to get started than trying to upset their in state rival. Expect a relative shootout
1*- Alabama -11 1/2 over USC- this one scares me only because it seems too easy- and when that is the case, it almost never is. Not only is USC not as talented as they once were, they are young and overmatched. I know Bama loses a ton of talent to the NFL every year, but they are a recruiting machine. Bama may call of the dogs and STILL win by 3 TD's
1*- Arizona/BYU over 60 1/2- Don't love betting BYU overs as their system has changed in the last few years, but with Arizona dictating pace and Taysom Hill back after his 100th knee injury, I think they will play a back and forth game.

So that's it to start, boys. Sorry a bit wordy on this first entry, but as we move forward it should get a little tighter- and as long as people want to read the thread, we'll keep it going (I'll also create a separate season thread for the NFL, but only with 4 plays/week).
f anyone wants to hear my season preview with betting trends, or wants a little more of the recaps above, ping me and I'll get you the info for my podcasts (don't worry, free, no selling, simple YouTube page to listen to on your way to work instead of stupid morning radio shows).

Looking forward to a profitable season- all comments welcome!
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man...........BOL with all your action this week...........enjoy and have a profitable season............indy

 

[Lvtexholdm]

Good write up & BOL!

 

[gmaryanski]

Thanks, Indy- you are one of those guys who I have checked in on for LO these many years. Let's win some bucks

 

[gmaryanski]

Appreciate it my man- I promise to keep them shorter moving forward- all the winnings without the filler. BOL with your action brother.

 

[gmaryanski]

Well it started out with such promise, but faded to a split start to the season.
3*- 1-1
2*- 1-1
1*- 1-1
All told 3-3, -0.6 units. We'll get em this week. Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Alright boys- Starting week 2 fresh at a near break even mark (see previous post). Honestly don't love the board this week, but that doesn't mean we won't all find a reason to bet, right? It's like Pizza- may not be from your favorite shop, but its still freaking pizza!

Let's get it started:
3*-Air Force -18 over Ga St- Air Force has their QB back, most of their aggressive defense, and a diverse offense. Add in the fact that they are playing at home and Ga St had alot of defections and are playing a little above their head, and I can see an easy 4 TD win, even as the Academy schools are known the pull back the reins for sportsmanship reasons.
3*- Col St -10 over UT SA- Big bounce back for the Rams. Mike Bobo is known as an offensive mind and they came into the season with big hopes, and getting SMASHED by his in state rival will either destroy them or make them stronger. I'm betting (literally) on stronger, as their offense should score at will.
2*- Arkansas +7 1/2 over TCU- TCU is just not as dynamic as they were, and Arkansas has a tendency to play up to it's competition, including games on the road. I may actually put this one in a little money line parlay, but for our purposes will certainly take more than a TD.
2*- Ohio St -29 over Tulsa- Not a ton of analysis needed. Ohio St is very good, and saw too may teams tripped up in week one. Urban Meyer is the best coach in college football (I love Saban, but he has more talent than the Buckeyes yearly). Tulsa beats bad opponents but can't handle high level competition. This one will be ugly.
1*- So Carolina +6 1/2 over Miss St.- I think Miss St takes a major tumblethis year. I don't like the GameCocks even a little for the year, but expect a sloppy, underwhelming game by both sides.
1*- Okla St-21 over Central Mich- I just think that Okla St offense will be too much for the Chippewas to keep up with. They will score some, but not enough. This is a 50+ spot for the Cowboys.

That's it, boys. BOL with all your action and let's cash some winners.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Week 2 was a little more like it, gained a little momentum. Hopefully anyone following waited until Saturday and got that Col. St line at 8 where it ended, which would make it a winner for them. For me, record through week 2:
3*- 2-2, -0.6
2*- 3-1, +3.8
1*- 2-2, -0.2
Overall 7-5, up 3.0 units thus far. Hope everyone did well with their plays.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Week 3 gets kicked of tonight, and while I will certainly be playing (I lean Cincy and the over), they aren't in my 6-pack. With that said, no point waiting, though if anyone is following (or even listening or reading, as I seem to just be replying to myself) you may want to wait on these to see if there is any value in the line for you.
3*- Fla St Team Total over 34 1/2- I think this is going to be an excellent track meet game. Louisville has a dynamic QB who will score- but Fla St has dynamic athletes who won't be held down. I easily see them in the 40's, win or lose
3*- Va Tech Team Total over 24- Notice a trend (I told you all I LOVE team totals). I think Va Tech is far more athletic than BC, and though the Eagles defense is solid I think Va Tech will score more than they did against Tennessee. I see them getting in the 30's.
2*- Michigan -20 over Colorado- Michigan is my new near-automatic until they don't crush someone. Colorado isn't bad, but are outclassed and in the big house. I see a 4 TD win, let's say 48-20
2*- Michigan St +8 over Notre Dame- Michigan St loses talent on defense every year, but manages to be fierce. Their offense isn't very good, and their QB needs work- but I expect them to rise up. They may win a low scoring game, but either way certainly cover more than a TD.
1*- Temple +10 over Penn St (buying a pt)- Admittedly I am a Temple alum, so tread lightly. That said, Penn St just isn't that good- not well coached and a poor gameplan. They are smarting from last years loss in Temple so I expect they will bring a major effort, but I still will take a team I think can win outright getting 10. I'll risk the extra juice
1*- Arizona -24 over Hawaii- Arizona is due to put it all together, and no better team to do that against than Hawaii off the island. They are young and not very talented, while Arizona has big dreams but have yet to play their game. I am calling for a 59-17 type blow out.

Let's see how this week goes, boys- best of luck with all your plays.
GMan

 

[XSPower]

Thanks and good luck this week my friend!!!

 

[indiana]

G/man...........BOL with all your action this weekend............indy

 

[gmaryanski]

Thanks, XSP and Indy- best of luck to you as well. and thank you for keeping me from just talking to myself
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

So splits across the board, another sister kissing type of week. Haven't had the big nut-kicking week, but nothing to blow your skirt up either. After 3 weeks:
3*- 3-3, -0.9
2*- 4-2, +3.6
1*- 3-3, -0.3
Overall 10-8, +2.4. LEt's try to get on a roll this week.
GMan

 

[gmaryanski]

Though I appear to just be doing this for myself, I'll continue to post and hope someone is reaping some value out of this. Week 3 NCAA:
3*- Michigan -18 1/2 over Penn St. Penn St is awful, and sloppy with the ball. The Wolverines are strong across the board, and Harbaugh is justenough of an A-Hole to rub it in and try to ramp up a rivalry (albeit with a team they are decidedly better than). I see a 41-13 type romp
3*- We. KY over 30 pts- they are clearly not the same team with Mike White, but they should break 30, even against a solid defense, just based on pace and college football rules
2*- App St-5 @ Akron- I know, App St as a road fave? Yep. I think they are a good team, and know they don't have much room for error if they want a decent season. Akron is historically not good, and that tradition continues this year. Ill say 28-17 App St
2*- Marshall +28 over Louisville (buy the hook if you have to)- No disputing Louisville is much better, but this is a classic sandwich game between two difficult games, and Louisville will only be human to look ahead and lose focus against a team they are 4 td's better than. Call it 37-24 Louisville
1*- Air Force -4 1/2 @ Utah St- Air Force is a dark horse top 20 team this year. Even on the road their offense will be too much. 27-17 Air Force
1*- Fla St/So Fla over 61- So Fla plays an upbeat system, and they will be anxious to show their in state brethren they have some athletes too. I think Fla St bounces back offensively, and expect a close shootout. Let's call it 38-34

Hope you enjoy and BOL with your selections this week.
GMan

 

[indiana]

G/man.........BOL with all your action this week...........indy

 

[gmaryanski]

Had a great week in the NFL, and real good here, minus a push on one of my 3* games. I will take it thus far, still a LONG way to go. After a4-1-1 week, here is where we stand:
3*- 4-3-1, +2.1
2* 5-3, +3.4
1*- 5-3, +1.7

Overall 14-9-1, +7.2. Hope everyone is having a profitable season. See you in week 4.
GMan

 

[spiderwebb1983]

nice work

 

[varkeyboy]

Keep up the good work! I slammed that FSU / SF OVER.........loved it too much w/ the style of play from both teams. That was a true video game out there....fun to watch if you were on the OVER! =)

 

[gmaryanski]

Thanks boys- I'll ride it as long as it lasts. And @Varkey, I wish I would have banged it too. I was traveling and my first update was 42 points before halftime. But I'll take any win, large or small

 

[gmaryanski]

Alright gentlemen (and I suppose the occasional lady), on to week 4, let's see if we can get some positive momentum (though I will admit up front that this week scares me, as I am on road faves with something to prove- potential recipe for disaster:

3*- Notre Dame -9 1/2 @ Cuse- This is not a pro Irish play. I am a notorious anti-Golden Domer, and nothing makes me happier than them having 3 losses already. That said, their offense is dyingto lay one on someone, even if it is Zaire- and Cuse can't stop anyone. I think this will be a shootout, but let's call it 44-31 Irish
3*- Clemson +2 over Louisville- I know, Louisville are the 85 Bears (for the young bucks out there, look it up). They are very good, and that offense is something. But the Clemson D is legit, and somehow I think deShaun Watson has his breakout game. Let's call it 34-30, Clemson (those with a sense of adventure, take the Money Line)
2*- Oklahoma Team Total over 36- Again, not a big Sooner guy. Stoops always loses when it matters, then builds up wins when the pressure is off to pad the total. I think this game is more of the same, as the TCU defense isn't what it used to be. 45-37, Sooners
2*- Michigan St -6 1/2 @ Indiana- Same situation as ND, except Mich St will be more down in the dumps after getting completely manhandled despite tons of hype. I LOVE D'Antoni as a coach, and I think he loses last week to whip that offense up into a frenzy, and they grind Indiana down. 31-13, Sparty
2*- Arizona/UCLA over 58 1/2- Going to the well one more time with Arizona, though they have been unkind to me this year. UCLA doesn't play run and gun, but can score and will enjoy an easier Defense to play against this week. I look for 65+ pts in this game
1*- Oklahoma -3 1/2 @ TCU- see my previous notes about OU. Not a big fan, but they play better with the pressure off. 45-37 Boomer Sooner


BOL with all your action, everyone. Hopefully this helps us have the man reaching into his pocket and not vice-versa
GMan