German Weekend

[chriscol]

the big german weekend coming up with final day of 1.+3. Bundesliga on Saturday and Final day of 2. Bundesliga on SUnday.

here some warm up picks for Friday

Regionalliga Süd:

Mannheim- Pfullendorf: Mannheim -0.5 @ 2.08

Regionalliga West:

Elversberg- Essen: Essen pk,+0.5 @ 1.96

BOL to all and see you tomorrow morning for 1.Liga picks

 

[chriscol]

two winners yesterday

today the big day: Here is a link to a conference of all 3. Bundesliga games: http://myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?matchid=40104&part=sports
simulcast of all 1.Liga games: http://myp2p.eu/broadcast.php?matchid=39772&part=sports

3. Bundesliga (all games 7.30 am ET)

Düsseldorf- Bremen: Düsseldorf -0.5,-1 @ 1.85 !! 2 units!!

Düsseldorf promotes with a home win...a draw might only be enough for play-offs (3rd place). They are on a good streak and very strong at home.
Bremen is still in relegation trouble, but even a loss might be enough. they are a weak away team.
For Düsseldorf a former uefa-cup finalist this would be hugh to promote. the whole city is in promotion-fever. it will be a record crowd for 3. Bundesliga today as the areny is sold out with 51,000 people!!! no way they blow it IMO.

Stuttgart- Paderborn: Paderborn -1.5 @1.96

Paderborn in 3rd place can jump Düsseldorf with a win and a Düsseldorf draw and clinches at least the play-off for promotion with a win. They fired the coach before last game and reacted with a 6-0 win. they will be up for the task and definetely want to go up again after coming from 2.Liga last season. they are playing Stuttgart which is already relegated and the worst team in league.since being relegated stuttgart lost at home to aalen and vs. bremen, both bottom teams. so there is no real life in them left.

Regensburg- Braunschweig: Regensburg -0.5 @ 2.10

to be 100 % sure of not being relegated Regensburg needs a point here. they are 4-1-1 in last 6 home games and Braunschweig has nothing to play for.

2-team ML parlay: Düsseldorf (1.63) and Paderborn (1.35) for a combined 2.20

Regionalliga Süd:

Kassel- München: Kassel -1 @1.90

Regionalliga West:

Dortmund- Worms: Dormund -1@ 2.04

 

[chriscol]

1. Bundesliga

situation:
-Wolfsburg is champ with a draw or a loss if München and Stuttgart draw
- München or Stuttgart secures CL with win.
- Berlin secures at least CL-quali with win or CL with win and München/Stuttgart draw.
- München secures at least CL-quali with draw

-Gladbach secures league with draw
-Bielefeld secures league with win and Gladbach loss+ making up 5 goals difference (f.3. 3-0 win and 0-2 loss)
- Bielefeld secures at least play-off with win (if Cottbus is not making up 4 goals,which is a no go)
-Cottbus can get into play-off if getting more points today then Bielefeld and same points than Karlsuhe
- KArlsruhe can reach play-offs with win and Bielefeld loss and Cottbus max. draw.

 

[chriscol]

Wolfsburg- Bremen: Wolfsburg -1.5,-1 @ 2.06

Wolfsburg needs just a point, but they are on a run and freaking hot at home ith only one draw all season. Bremen has nothing to play for and is coming off the disappointing uefa-final loss. this will be either very close (which would be an unlikely surprise for me) or a big and entertaining win.

Frankfurt- Hamburg: Hamburg -0.5 @ 1.80 and under 3@ 1.95 !!2 units!!

Frankfurt with nothing to play for being save since last week. Hamburg need to get more points than Dortmund today to at least get into Uefa-cup, which basically means they have to win. motivation is enough for me to take Hamburg. in addition Frankfurt announced on Thursday that they will fire coach Funkel after today s match (also not a big motivation factor).
i see no real szenario for this to go over. Frankfurt doesnt care, so if Hamburg takes a lead they will sit on it without any problems (this should not be a 3-1 or 4-0 Hamburg win). If Frankfurt takes the lead or Dortmund takes an early lead which cn kill motivation of Hamburg that should be a boring match, as id ont see Frankfurt winning 3-1 or 4-0 either...it can go to 3 goals, but its very unlikely to go over

 

[chriscol]

München- Stuttgart: München -0.5 @ 1.73

simply going with the home team in what should be an entertaining fight.

Cottbus- Leverkusen: under 3,3.5 @ 1.84 !! 2 units!!

this is a joke. OK, Cottbus needs to win to have any chance and Leverkusen has nothing to play for, but for Cottbus it s about winning only..its very,very unlikely that goal difference matters.
Cottbus best three strikers are out who were responsible for 2/3 of their goals. that is already reflected in their recent struggles with only 1 goal from last 4 matches.what should happen here to get 4 goals..if Cottbus wins they need an uninspired Leverkusen, but even than its unlikely they are winning 4-0 or 3-1...why should they. If Leverkusen comes to play it s over for Cottbus anyway and it will be a 1-1,0-2,1-2 type of game.

Bielefeld- Hannover: Bielefeld -0.5,-1 @ 1.95 !! 2 units!!

Bielefeld need a win to secure play-off and a big win to have a chance for saving the league. They changed their coach before this game which should be a big motivation boost. Hannover is the weakest away team in league and with noting to play for. they got blown out by Wolfsburg at home last week and in this situation for Bielefeld it could be similar here again.

Karlsruhe- Berlin: KArlsruhe +0.5,+1 @ 2.0

Karlsruhe need a win to have any chance of avoiding relegation. at least they have hope and confidence after taking their last chance with last weeks away win at Bremen.
Berlin needs win to get to CL, everything else doesnt matter. this should be either a very close match, as KArlsruhe will not go down without a fight or even a Karlsruhe win.

Gladbach- Dortmund: Dormund -0.5 @ 2.05

it s a tough one, but i am going with the hot team (8 wins from last 9) which need a win to secure Uefa-spot over the team in relegation fight which will have problems with the nerves if it goes in wrong direction or Bielefeld takes a lead.

BOL to all

 

[colton]

My big play today is on Stuttgart. They will win straight up against Bayern.
Ze Roberto not playing today is a huge blow for Munich. Altintop is also not playing. That means that Lucio will play again right back and as seen against Hoffenheim this will lead to big holes in the defense of Munich. Even worse is that Van Buyten have to move in the middle and play against the hottest striker in the league right now. Gomez will expose this Munich defense today and Bayern will be crushed today. Bayern has not the strenght on the bench this season to win against strong competition.
And the whole season keyplayers are injured. The offense of Munich is horrible. Podolski and Toni need 10 chances to score once and Klose coming of a long injury.And Stuttgart has a good defense with Lehmann in top form. Besides Ribery and Lahm Stuttgart is better in every position. I see Stuttgart winning big today. But that is just my opinion.

 

[chriscol]

My big play today is on Stuttgart. They will win straight up against Bayern.
Ze Roberto not playing today is a huge blow for Munich. Altintop is also not playing. That means that Lucio will play again right back and as seen against Hoffenheim this will lead to big holes in the defense of Munich. Even worse is that Van Buyten have to move in the middle and play against the hottest striker in the league right now. Gomez will expose this Munich defense today and Bayern will be crushed today. Bayern has not the strenght on the bench this season to win against strong competition.
And the whole season keyplayers are injured. The offense of Munich is horrible. Podolski and Toni need 10 chances to score once and Klose coming of a long injury.And Stuttgart has a good defense with Lehmann in top form. Besides Ribery and Lahm Stuttgart is better in every position. I see Stuttgart winning big today. But that is just my opinion.

you might be right...as i mentioned i see it as a very open game where everything can happen..i am only going München to have spme action and for that i like the home team...some other games have definetely much more value.

 

[colton]

Sorry Chris, i hope you stayed with your Munich pick. I was completely wrong with Stuttgart.They played their worst game today in the last 20 games. Munich had completely controll of the game. Lucio as a right back was the expected weakness, but Stuttgart played terrible today and were not able to expose this weakness.Munich absolutely deserved this win.

 

[chriscol]

Sorry Chris, i hope you stayed with your Munich pick. I was completely wrong with Stuttgart.They played their worst game today in the last 20 games. Munich had completely controll of the game. Lucio as a right back was the expected weakness, but Stuttgart played terrible today and were not able to expose this weakness.Munich absolutely deserved this win.

yes i did... i still cant believe the Bielefeld didnt win, so it was a pretty mixed day on the 1.Liga, but lower leagues were solid...tomorrow last big day

 

[chriscol]

2. Bundesliga

Situation: it can be very exciting or very boring early on!
- On top Mainz needs a draw to promote directly.if they loose at home (very unlikely) than Nürnberg can promote directly with a win.
-For relegation it s only a matter of who gets in play-downs.
Osnabrück needs to win at Duisburg. in all other cases the other games doesn matter.
- If Osnabrück wins: Koblenz needs a draw, Frankfurt needs a draw, Rostock needs a win.

Aachen- Augsburg: Achen -0.5 @ 1.73

Nothing to play for for both teams, but Aachen a very strong home team and probably going for a nice thank you for their fans. Motivation on their side as home team.

2-team MLparlay: Mainz (1.36) and Rostock ( 1.66) at a combined 2.26

Mainz need only a draw, but i still like them over a Oberhausen team with nothing to play for. as a draw is enough i wouldnt lay more than a goal with them.
Rostock has agreat run and will not be stopped today by the bottom team from holding the league.

Freiburg- KAiserslautern: Freiburg -0.5 @ 1.73 !! 2 units!!

Freiburg already promoted. They had their celebration let down last week away, but today at home they will not spoil the party as the dominant home team they are. Kaiserslautern was very long in promotion race by playing over their heads, since being out of it they lack motivation as shown in last weeks home performance vs. Duisburg where they were already down 0-4 in first half. They are a weak away team anyway all season.

Duisburg- Osnabrück: Osnabrück pk @ 2.08 and over 3 @2.0

Osnabrück needs a win and they will be desperate, while Duisburg has nothing to play for but loves to play offensive style and putting on some entertainment (like last weeks 5-2 away win at Kaiserslautern).
I am going with the motivation here with Osnabrück, but also like the over as a cover, in case Duisburg gets the lead.

BOL to all