German weekend 8/22 - 8/24

[chriscol]

Let's start another profitable weekend with german football.
i'll be not at home saturday, sunday, so i'll post whole weekend plays today.
But let's start with friday:

FRIDAY

2. Bundesliga

Regensburg - Lübeck: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00
Both teams had lots of low scoring matches so far: Lübeck 0-0,0-2,1-2 Regensburg 0-0,1-0
Strength of Regensburg is, as it was in Regionalliga last year the defense. so it would be a surprise for me if the weak Lübeck offense would score today. i also dont think that Regensburg will score much, as Lübeck will try to get at least one point after their terrible start in the season and will play defensivly, maybe hoping for some fast breaks.
i see a boring game here, ending 0-0,1-0 or 1-1

Ahlen - Karlsruhe: Over 2.5 @ 1.893

Both teams off a bad start into season. Both teams are vulnurable on defense. I expect a very intense game tonight, as both teams need a win and both coaches said this week they have to put more effort in and have to fight for the win, not play. So this should be a typical 2. Bundesliga game, where both teams will get emotional (especially in the "night"-atmosphere of small arena in Ahlen) and will be even less concentrate on defense than in last games (both conceiding an avarage of 2).

Leanings, but no plays are on
Trier-Duisburg DRAW
Regensburg to win

 

[chriscol]

Reguionalliga Süd:

Hoffenheim - Feucht : Hoffenheim to win @ 1.53
Hoffenheim did not play as well as expected so far , but are clearly the better team in this matchup.
Feucht is new in the league and after getting an unexpected point in the first game came down on earth by loosing 1-3 and 0-3 the next two. i dont think they are up for the task to play in Hoffenheim.

BOL for today. Rest of weekend wiil be up later

 

[chriscol]

Record after last week:

Season:
1.Bundesliga: 13-5 +7.24
2. Bundesliga:4-4 +0.86
Regionalliga: 5-4 +0.19

Total: 19-12 +8.29

today a mixed start in the weekend going 1-2 after Lübeck put on an impressive performance

 

[chriscol]

SATURDAY

Bundesliga

Freiburg - Gladbach: Gladbach pk, +0.5 @ 2.08
Freiburg still have not found it's rythm.
After a blow out loss in Leverkusen, they got a gifted point by the ref at home agianst Rostock. Also the point in Berlin last week was very,very,very lucky. Berlin has benn the better team for whole game, but just could not score.
Gladbach also lost last week at home to Stuttgart, but they played solid like the last 2 games before. They have already shown me with a draw in Bremen (which should have been a win) that the away-struggles from last year are over.
So this in first place a pick against Freiburg, but i like Gladbach's chances for a good performance with some sucess on the counter attacks,too.

Stuttgart- Kaiserslautern: Stuttgart -0.5 @1.826

Stuttgart is off to a good start into season with 7 pts after 3 games.they got two away wins and had problems with a 0-0 draw at home, but they should be the much better team in this matchup and get their first home win of season.
Kaiserslautern again did not play well last week and fully deserved it's 2nd home loss in a row.although 2 defenders will be back from injury, i still think their defense will be vulnurable.
Iwould have expect the line at -1, but at 0.5 Stuttgart is definatly a play here.

Bremen- Schalke: Bremen pk, -0.5 @ 1.99

Bremen coming of it's 2nd away win got a great start into season. Team is clicking right now, which is unusual for them. They are normally known as slow starters. Atmosphere around the club is very relaxed and positive, with in form Ailton should sign for next season in the upcoming weeks (which has been a critical point for the team, but should motivate them even more).
Schalke i've seen last week winning very lucky. They are a good team, but still not one of the top team and they are definetly not in form right now.They have many problems with injuries at the moment and Seitz will not play due to red card.
Bremen won the last 3 games at home against Schalke, so they are also holding the historically edge.

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 23, 2003 at 06:03 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

Köln- Dortmund: Köln +0.5 @1.943

Köln ,although having lost all 3 games, played solid football so far, and lost every game by undeserved late games. So they are not as bad as the standings show right now. Problem for them will be that defender Heinrich got a red card last week. that will weaken the already injury hit defense. But i still think they got a good shot at a draw at home agianst Dortmund, which had a good start, but mainly due to good performances at home.
In away games they are still struggeling. They got a lucky last minute draw at Schalke and played an awful match in CL-qualify at Brügge.
Conceicao will still be out with injury, and their will be the danger that Dortmung looks to much ahead to the next game, the CL-qualifier against Brügge on wednesday, which will be the biggest game of the season for them after the decent performance in first leg.

1860 München- Wolfsburg: Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ! 2 units !

Both team are in form + both teams with strong offenses and vulnurable defenses + historically high scoring match (last 3 games 2-2,2-1,2-2: 1860 did only one in history score less than 2 goals against Wolfsburg + Wolfsburg did score in every game at München in the past)

Bochum - Leverkusen: Leverkusen pk, -0.5 @ 2.10 !! 2 units !! + over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 ! 2 units !

Bochum is always dangerous at home, but Leverkusen is on a hot streak right now and at pk,0.5 they are definetly the play here. i just cannot see a loss for them.
Historically only one home win for Bochum in last 9 matchups against Leverkusen.
Over is the play, cause i like both teams to score.Leverkusen got a high power offense and Bochum should score a goal at home+ both teams not too strong on defense. There will be many scoring chances.

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 23, 2003 at 06:05 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

good looking card in Regionalliga

Chemnitz - Neumünster: Chemnitz to win @ 1.45 ! 2 units!
Chemnitz a solid team and usually strong at home against Neumünster which still has to show me they are able to to compete in this league at least a bit. After last weeks 0-3 home loss, they are now sitting on 0 points and 0-8 goals.

Wuppertal- St. Pauli: Wuppertal to win @ 2.20 (thinking about a 2 unit play here)

For many Wuppertal is surprice this season as a new team in league, but i was on them the whole season and they performed very well so far. They are strong team which will play for promotion this year and we should play them until the bookies recognize it. it's still not shown in the lines.
There will be a huge atmosphere in the stadium for this match. 10000 people are expected which is unusaul for Wuppertal. But together with the good performance of the home team, this is a highly anticipated match against St.Pauli, cause both are traditional clubs which used to play in Bundesliga in the past. It's a ago long time for Wuppertal, but just the name of St.Pauli means for many fans that "Wuppertal is back in the business".
St.Pauli with 3 draws so far, is one of the weaker teams this season and they have major problems on defense.
The better and more motivated team should get the home win here. The line is clearly influenced by the names of the clubs. in 6 to 8 weeks the line for same match would be around 1.7.

Dresden- Münster: Dresden to win @ 1.75
That's mostly a play agianst Münster, which is again struggeling like last 3 season and will again play against relegation. only one pt and 2-6 goals are not a good sign, if you have to go to Dresden, which should content for promotion. Dresden got problem on defense in away games, but is solid as expected so far in home games.

Dortmund- Leipzig: Dortmund to win @1.769

Dortmund off a good start is coming from 2ns away win. Leipzig lost all 3 games so far, and should also have trouble to get points here.
For interest, intertops and german books are offering only 1.55 for Dortmund in this matchup.

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 22, 2003 at 05:36 PM.]

 

[chriscol]

Regionalliga Süd:

Schweinfurt- Stuttgarter kickes: Stuttgart to win @ 2.65 !! 2 units !!
Cant understand the line here. Stuttgart with 7 pts out of first 3 games against Schweinfurt with 0 pts and 2-9 goals.
What is even worse for Schweinfurt, they dont believe they have a chance. Coach said already before season: "if we loose first 5 matches, it would not be a surprize after test matches!". They are on a good way

You hear comments inside the team like: we are still tired from great finish last season (They avoided relegation by great effort in last games)+ offseason was too short + we will play against relegation again...and so on.
i simply DO NOT understand line here, how this team can be favoured.

Sunday games and maybe some upgrades will follow later tonight.

BTW i found out in Regionalliga it's woth shopping around for line. there are still differences up to 30 cents between books.

CU all later

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 23, 2003 at 06:05 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

Sunday

i could not find any good value for sunday.
Have some leaning in 2.Bundesliga, but these are no official plays:

Mainz to win
Aachen to win
Oberhausen to win

HSV-Bayern: Good chance for draw

BTW: after sleeping over games i even feel stronger with my saturday card and put some upgrades on it:

Summary for saturday plays:

Bundesliga

Freiburg - Gladbach: Gladbach pk, +0.5 @ 2.08
Stuttgart- Kaiserslautern: Stuttgart -0.5 @1.826
Bremen- Schalke: Bremen pk, -0.5 @ 1.99
Köln- Dortmund: Köln +0.5 @1.943
1860 München- Wolfsburg: Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ! 2 units !
Bochum - Leverkusen: Leverkusen pk, -0.5 @ 2.10 !! 2 units !! + over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 ! 2 units !

Regionalliga

Chemnitz - Neumünster: Chemnitz to win @ 1.45 ! 2 units!
Wuppertal- St. Pauli: Wuppertal to win @ 2.20
Dresden- Münster: Dresden to win @ 1.75
Dortmund- Leipzig: Dortmund to win @1.769
Schweinfurt- Stuttgarter kickes: Stuttgart to win @ 2.65 !! 2 units !!

BOL today

 

[ohana]

sure 1860 win

2.35 (@marilynltd.net)