German weekend 8/15-8/17

[chriscol]

Not much value to find on Friday in German leagues.
No time for write ups right now, but these are my plays or leanings for friday.
Saturday Bundesliga will be up on Saturday morning. BOL so far.

2. Bundesliga:

Lübeck - Unterhaching: Unterhaching pk @ 2.15

Just a opinion (but no official plays), if anybody thinks about those games:
If i had to play it, i would go with
Aue pk over Berlin and Karlsruhe-Oberhausen over 2.5

 

Chriscol,

What are the suspension rules in 1. and 2.Bundesliga? Karlsruhes Saenko scored twice against Osnabrück last weekend, but got red card also. Is he suspended today?

I think I'll bet Oberhausen +.5 2.00 at Betfair with a small stake, but I wait your answer before I bet.

I think best pick today is Union Berlin against Erzgebirge. I'll try to get 2.90 at Betfair. Lübeck vs Unterhaching is too tight match. Probably a draw and my estimation is 31% for a draw.

 

[soccerbob]

I would have started a new thread for this pick but the computer I'm using while on vacation is acting up a bit so I'll add to Criscol's write ups.

Bayer Leverkusen were very lucky to win last week on an own goal. It reminded me a bit of the magical run they had 2 years ago when they played so well and also caught breaks like they got last week. Last season was horrible as they had player defections, injuries and coaching problems. I think this club is going to have a very good season and be right there for a Champion's League spot. They will be even better when they get Basturk and Novotny back from injury.

Hannover have started off well. I think they will still be feeling the effects of blowing a 3-1 lead against Bayern Munich as they go into the Bay Arena. They have a very suspect defense and that will play right into the hands of Bayer Leverkusen's solid counter attack. I see a solid Bayer Leverkusen victory.

Bayer Leverkusen -1/2 -129
OVER 3 +105

 

[mrFloppy]

Stuttgart +0.5 1.60

 

[chriscol]

Faceless, sorry i could not answer in time. red cards are in germany like i think in all leagues.
For a yellow/red card you got suspension for next game. For a plain red card you get suspension immediately for next game and a commitee decides how long the suspension will last. usually between 2 and 5 weeks (depends on what the player did)

 

[chriscol]

again a very good start on Friday with unterhaching getting the away win. also both leanings i had hit, if you played them.
It seems like friday is my strong day, but let's see how it looks today

SATURDAY

BUNDESLIGA

Leverkusen - Hannover : Leverkusen -0.5, -1 @ 2.13 AND OVER 2.5,3 goals @ 1.741 for !!2 units!!
Leverkusen started with two wins against weak teams. For what you can hear from inside the club they are not overconfident right now (because of quality of opp.), but they are slowly building up the for and the teamatmosphere they had 2 years ago, when they were almost the best team in germany.
What was important about their win last week in Frankfurt, was the result. They did not play great, but the winner-mentality is back. they putting on the result and i'm looking for the same today.
They are usually strong at home with a lot of offensive power which i think hannover is not ready for.
Hannover also got a good start, but they are allowing much to much scoring chances (against HSV and Bayern), if put under pressure. I strongly believe they will conceide art least 2 goals today maybe 3. with that said, even they got a much improved offense this year it will be tough for them to stay within 1 goal.

Also the over is a nice play here. both teams can and will score and hannover got a weak defense. i see something like a 3-1.

Rostock - Frankfurt: Rostock -0.5 @ 1.901 !! 2 units !!

My biggest play of the day. Frankfurt is simply the weakest team in league so far + they have realy big trouble on defense. not only they have a weak defense, right now they have no players. Captain Keller is out for 6 weeks wich is desastrous for the teama and nothing is really happening against it in the club. Also they have no real offense. Even if they scored 1 goal against bayern and leverkusen so far, they are producing no scoring chances.
Rostock on the other hand, played a good game in the home loss to Stuttgart (they got 2 goals in 2 minutes, but were at least as good as Stuttgart) and gave a way the away win in friburg after leading 2-0, mostly caused by a reff. decision. They had the game under total controll till a crazy penalty.
I look for a continuation of this good form and therefore an easy home winner.

I might get a play on the München-Bochum game, but not sure yet.

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 16, 2003 at 06:32 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

Regionalliga Nord

Neumünster - ESSEN: Essen to win @ 1.85 !! 2 Units !!

Big play here. Essen one of the top favourites started with 2 draws. both games they were domonating the other team , but conceided late equalizers.
Neumünster is new in league and by far the worst team so far. 0 point and 0-5 goals.
Right now they are simply not up for the task to play regionalliga. that migjht change over time, but not today. The much better team will win in a very big match for them in order to get on track for promotion race.
BTW 1.85 is from intertops, most other using lines like 1.65)

BOL to all today

 

[chriscol]

Bundesliga

No play on Bayern today. I've first have to see how Makaay fits in the team. Not sure if he will have such a big impact as everybody thinks.

PARLAY: Servette Genf over St. Gallen (1.588) and Berlin over Freiburg (1.588) for a combined 2.53

OK, it's not completely german football, but i like Genf alot tonight. They are strong at home winning 5-1 and 3-1 so far and are coming of a good 1-1 away draw in Zürich, where they had the lead for 89. min. St. Gallen did not a good start in the season and should lose another game tonight.

Berlin, played alright last week in Stuttgart and should get the first win of season today. They are the much better team and Freiburg did not play well in first two games. They were lucky only to loose 1-4 in Leverkusen and were unbelievable lucky (with some help of the ref.) to come back from a 0-2 deficit to get a home draw last week.

BTW, big play Essen already 3-0 up by halftime

 

[jwunderdog]

Thank you very much.

 

[chriscol]

almost a clean sweep today. only berlin let me down.

This weekend so far:

1. Bundesliga: 3-1 +3.411
2. Bundwesliga: 1-0 + 1.15
Regionalliga: 1-0 +1.70

Total: 5-1 + 6.261

Season:
1.Bundesliga: 11-5 +5.838
2. Bundesliga:3-3 +0.86
Regionalliga: 5-4 +0.19

Total: 19-12 +6.888

 

[chriscol]

More write ups may come tomorrow but here the picks for SUNDAY

1. Bundesliga:

Schalke- Köln: Köln +1,+1,5 @ 2.08
Schalke played UI-Cup during week, Köln lost twice but played good. Now defense is rebuilding slowly. Cichon back from injury + one new player on defense was aquired. See close game with chance for draw.

Wolfsburg - Hamburg: Over 2.5 @ 1.862
Historically high scoring match

2. Bundesliga

Fürth- Trier: Fürth -0.5 @ 2.0
Trier although winning twice run in big injury trouble on defense during week. 2 players were already injured, two more got injured during week. test match against a 4th league team during week got lost 0-2.

Duisburg- Regensburg: Duisburg -0.5 1.694

Better team + at home + important win to get on track for promotion race

LEANING, but no plays yet:

Schalke- Köln under 2.5,3
Hamburg pk, +0.5
Bielefeld -0.5

BOL to all

[This message was edited by chriscol on August 17, 2003 at 09:31 AM.]

 

[chriscol]

That'S all for today. have to leave now for Schalke-Köln match. Should be a nice one and i would be happy with a draw. we will see

 

[jwunderdog]

another nice day. Thanks