Georgia (-) vs. LSU

[EatTheChalk]

Opened: Georgia -1
Minutes later: Georgia -2.5

This isn't a "big play" for me or a "lock" or anything like that, but this is the most intriguing game of the week to me, and I thought we could get some good commentary on it. This one just edged out the Oklahoma/Miami game for me, very interested in that one as well.

This is a huge game for both teams as they have intense competition in their respective divisions such that they can't really afford a loss without needing to win out to make it to Atlanta. Ole Miss and Alabama in the West for LSU, and of course Florida in the East for Georgia.

This play is rather simple (not to be confused with "easy") to me, LSU is over-valued. They're ranked better than what they're worth, and they've looked sloppy in every game they've played. And that gives the opposition an easier paper "tiger" to get motivated for and to tear apart as well.

That's not to say Georgia has played great football, they're obviously still sorting things out, but I like Georgia for the same reason I liked Carolina last week vs. Ole Miss. I think people are still trying to force LSU into the "they've reloaded and they're back" role, and I think Georgia is a little better than what they've shown. Georgia has played better competition and is more battle ready for this type of game.

Question marks I have for Georgia are: (1) Turnovers - Georgia has turned the ball over 3 TIMES in each game that they've played. Their +/- through 4 games is -9 (12 to 3). It's amazing they're 3-1. I have no reason to believe they're going to magically correct that this week, but I have a hard time believing they can maintain that pace. On the flip side, LSU has been +5 in their two road games (1 to 6) - look how close those games were. If Georgia maintains an even ratio, they could win going away, but that's a HUGE if. (2) Has Georgia played too many tough games in a row to start the season? I'm betting that this is not the case this week, but I believe it could really hurt them next week going into Knoxville.

Interested to hear others' thoughts on this game. Thanks and Good Luck!

-ETC

 

[GrilledCheese]

If LSU pounds MSU last week like they should have, the line would be -4 LSU. The MSU game was incredibly fishy. I think LSU has the speed and beef up front on offense to win this game, but something just doesn't look right. Jefferson is decent, probably good enough to move the ball on UGA.

Run defense for LSU worries me a little. MSU HB Dixon found 5-6 ypc fairly easily. If UGA can run the ball effectively and not turn the ball over, I see a UGA win. But something tells me Les Miles will win this one. He always seems to find a way to win. He's like an arrogant little kid who thinks he's good, makes strange calls that proves he's not good, but somehow always wins.

I'd take LSU and the pts. Both offenses are suspect. LSU's defense is a little better than UGA's.

 

[Furmanski]

If LSU pounds MSU last week like they should have, the line would be -4 LSU. The MSU game was incredibly fishy. I think LSU has the speed and beef up front on offense to win this game, but something just doesn't look right. Jefferson is decent, probably good enough to move the ball on UGA.

Run defense for LSU worries me a little. MSU HB Dixon found 5-6 ypc fairly easily. If UGA can run the ball effectively and not turn the ball over, I see a UGA win. But something tells me Les Miles will win this one. He always seems to find a way to win. He's like an arrogant little kid who thinks he's good, makes strange calls that proves he's not good, but somehow always wins.

I'd take LSU and the pts. Both offenses are suspect. LSU's defense is a little better than UGA's.

I don't know what to expect in this one, but the line would never have been LSU -4. Even if LSU had beaten MSU by 40.

 

[LSUpete]

I don't know what to expect in this one, but the line would never have been LSU -4. Even if LSU had beaten MSU by 40.

Yes it would have. Just look at Ole Miss vs Carolina last week.

On paper, LSU is the #4 team in the country playing a team with a terrible defense and a loss at Oklahoma State.

It should be a great game to watch, but I am going to stay away from the action on this one. I'm too disappointed in the game management and the lack of success in the Tigers' running game to recommend a wager on LSU, but Georgia hasn't impressed me either. I'm sure the Georgia team is all excited to beat the #4 team, so they'll likely be highly motivated.

 

[EatTheChalk]

On paper, LSU is the #4 team in the country playing a team with a terrible defense and a loss at Oklahoma State

Yes, but keep in mind that Arizona State (rated #102 in Offense) only ran for 98 yards and passed for only 106 yards (1 10-yard sack). LSU's offense is rated #105, and they've only faced 1 top 30 defense (Vanderbilt). It's too early to rely much on stats due to the sample size in the competition, but from the "on paper" approach, LSU doesn't look all that imposing compared to what Georgia has already seen. Even Oklahoma State barely gained over 300 yards on Georgia.

-ETC

 

[unc50]

hmm...interesting point on the hyped up teams. i was all over usf before the season started. i just freakin love their program. and i posted before the fsu game that i thought grothe was overrated, and i'd seen film of this daniels guy, and heard coaches comments and they all loved him.

what everyone didn't know, is that daniels was gonna split time with grothe this year anyway, so its not that big of a deal. he was a 4 star recruit. thats amazing. usf never lands 4 star kids from florida, but the truth is that there aren't enough scholarships to go around in florida so usf gets to steal some kids.

anyway, the usf play is a joint play on the fact that i think usf is a top10-15 team, and i think syracuse is a joke. paulus is their qb for freak sake.

also, the game is in a dome. no rain issues like miami faced, and it's not going to be cold. you want to know how to beat a south florida team? have them play in the cold vs a high school team, they'll lose.

the last 2 years so flo has beat syracuse by a combined 55+ points. this is at least a DD win for the bulls, i think. please help me change my mind if i'm wrong,

also like NCSU as a pk. state should win by DD too.

 

[KINGOFNEWYORK]

who is going to win this game

 

[ChrisParadise]

Georgia

probably the over also

 

[ProPokerPlayer]

The reason u havent been impressed with the running game is they cant throw worth shit. Teams are stacking the line knowing LSU's only pass plays are straight down the field. They will never throw over the middle , screens are out, they have no confidence in any of the 3 qbs to throw the ball..
LSU should win on paper but im not so sure on the field. Defense cant win em all.... no pick till later in the week, need to see more on Georgia . These may be the 2 hardest to figure out teams in CF right now.

 

[JackieSherrill]

Over.

 

[FavreHater]

LSU plus the points for me. I also like the under. These close point spreads in SEC games when both teams are going to be playing to their full potential seems to go under a lot. Nothing to back that previous statement up except that is just what it seems.

 

[nd2000]

This game is literally impossible to figure out.

 

[johnnydizzle112]

FUCK UGA, I will either not bet or bet against them every game the rest of the way, they are fucking horrible. They cost me pretty heavily last weekend also. So that may be why I am so pissy towards them. Last second field goal to win the game, as a twelve and a half point fav, FUCK UGA, they get beat this weekend, and I laugh my ass off as I chug my bud light and say haha, go between the hedges on that you non cashing fuck toys. LOL Once again FUCK UGA

 

[Porkchop]

FUCK UGA, I will either not bet or bet against them every game the rest of the way, they are fucking horrible. They cost me pretty heavily last weekend also. So that may be why I am so pissy towards them. Last second field goal to win the game, as a twelve and a half point fav, FUCK UGA, they get beat this weekend, and I laugh my ass off as I chug my bud light and say haha, go between the hedges on that you non cashing fuck toys. LOL Once again FUCK UGA

Hey Dizzle,

How do you feel about UGA?

 

[I'mBombed]

I love the under in this game for this simple reason. Now week in and week out SEC conference games take a toll on the opposing teams. You will see a defensive battle in this game.

Always love taking unders in SEC conference games middle of the year, they normally pay off.

 

[johnnydizzle112]

LOL, I guess I did throw it on there a little strongly. LOL

 

[tlee4lizard]

Very hard to win on the road in the sec take the small home favorite.

Lsu has showed me nothing this year. Their offense is not as good as i expected.