GB / Minn

[Cantpickem]

GB – Minn
Wow! What can you say about Green Bay. They have been demolishing their opponents outscoring them 108 to 34 by beating Chicago (55-14) and Philadelphia (53-20). Now they are on the road facing Minn who lost to Chicago (21-13) of all teams last weekend. Line opened at -7.5 and 79% have moved the line to 10 -- 2.5 or three points higher on Green Bay than the opening line, which can likely be attributed to the Packers' demolishing their opponents. The opening line at -7.5 was set knowing that GB is on a roll and public perception will take up a few pts.

Green Bay beats Chicago and Chicago beats Minn. Logic would have you believe that Green Bay will beat Minn. More than likely will, but will GB cover?

 

[Slurve~Ball]

I would not be surprised at all if MIN makes a game of this. Packers are going hollywood now!
http://www.packers.com/news-and-eve...rfect-2’/003f148b-3ef9-475c-ad05-16b3813e3c86
Distraction??

GB is 2-3 ATS on the road this year. The only win on the road by more than 10 points was against the hapless Bears.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Pinny just dropped line from -9 to -7.5...
Bookmaker from -9 to -8...

 

[Cantpickem]

78% are on GB...interesting line movement. Makes me wonder if the books want more $$ on GB.

 

[degen]

Green Bay beats Chicago and Chicago beats Minn. Logic would have you believe that Green Bay will beat Minn.

This type of reasoning has sent a lot of gamblers to the poor house. Just ask the people who bet KC last night.

 

[BernieVegas]

Not sure where everyone is getting these %'s of who is on who and what percentages but you guys need to go elsewhere for your numbers. Big money has come in on Minnesota since Sunday night. Sharps are grabbing the dog in hopes that Teddy Bridgewater will become an NFL QB in a week lmao....or maybe they feel that the Packers are distracted with their movie appearance in Pitch Perfect 2.
My guess is they are grabbing the dog because of the NFL record of teams off back-to-back 50pt performances. Whatever the reason the so called sharps lmao have taken it in the ass this year. This just may be another time. Let's hope Vaseline is used lmao

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[squib]

Not sure where everyone is getting these %'s of who is on who and what percentages but you guys need to go elsewhere for your numbers. Big money has come in on Minnesota since Sunday night. Sharps are grabbing the dog in hopes that Teddy Bridgewater will become an NFL QB in a week lmao....or maybe they feel that the Packers are distracted with their movie appearance in Pitch Perfect 2.
My guess is they are grabbing the dog because of the NFL record of teams off back-to-back 50pt performances. Whatever the reason the so called sharps lmao have taken it in the ass this year. This just may be another time. Let's hope Vaseline is used lmao

Yours in Winners
BernieV

Couldn't agree more with you on the line move. Some big bets must have come in on Minn. The %'s that everyone refers to are not a real good gauge on who is betting what, most of them are calculated on # of bets and not money wagered. I going to stick with my initial thought on the game with the Pack and hope the sharps are wrong. Not sure Teddy B is ready to make the giant step just yet.

 

[Cantpickem]

Not sure where everyone is getting these %'s of who is on who and what percentages but you guys need to go elsewhere for your numbers. Big money has come in on Minnesota since Sunday night. Sharps are grabbing the dog in hopes that Teddy Bridgewater will become an NFL QB in a week lmao....or maybe they feel that the Packers are distracted with their movie appearance in Pitch Perfect 2.
My guess is they are grabbing the dog because of the NFL record of teams off back-to-back 50pt performances. Whatever the reason the so called sharps lmao have taken it in the ass this year. This just may be another time. Let's hope Vaseline is used lmao

Yours in Winners
BernieV

BernieV, Where do you get your info on the $$? Posted % are the # of bets not $$ coming in on a side. Scores & Odds and Pregame give %

 

[Cantpickem]

This type of reasoning has sent a lot of gamblers to the poor house. Just ask the people who bet KC last night.

yes, you are 100% correct. However, that wasn't the intent of this sentence.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

The line coming down from -9.5 to -7.5 or -8 isn't crossing any key numbers........if it crosses 7, like down to -6.5, then my eyebrows will be raised.

IMO, this is a Packers play or stay away.

 

[Cantpickem]

Line opened at 7.5. Early $$ brought it up to 10 (Joe's place). Still sitting at 9 in those places.

 

[BernieVegas]

First of all when a line opens GB -10 on Sunday night and on Monday morning was still GB -10 and then through the week Minnesota is hit so GB is generally now in the -8/-8.5/ and some -9's range, 78% of the bettors did not move the line, MONEY DID!!! This is an elementary lesson. Second lesson John Q betting Public does not generally wager Sunday through Thursday and don't usually come in until Friday night through Sunday game time with the majority of the Public Money on Sunday. Beware lines that move dramatically on Sunday's because that is usually dead money because it is Public Money. I pounded a game last Sunday as the Packers were -5 to -6.5 all over and on Sunday came in a ton of probably East Coast money on Philly and the line settled Green Bay -4 and I pounced on it. It is always important to follow the money but to know who is doing the betting. John Q Public obviously DID NOT move this Packers//Minnesota line.

I know why some sharps came in and moved this line for a number of reasons. I'm not sure THIS YEAR those reasons are valid. Minnesota always plays Green Bay tougher in Minnesota as does Detroit in Detroit. The Packers are coming off of to 50+ scoring performances and statistically that has proven the kiss of death in the NFL in game 3 of that pattern. Also, and this has been golden this year not only in the NFL but in college as well, when a team covers the spread by over 14pts the team usually doesn't cover the next game. They may be playing the odds since the Packers covered the last two games 14pts over the spread so they are gambling they won't cover this week. Just trying to gage their thinking because Minnesota's personnel surely doesn't warrant the line move

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[vince24L]

First of all when a line opens GB -10 on Sunday night and on Monday morning was still GB -10 and then through the week Minnesota is hit so GB is generally now in the -8/-8.5/ and some -9's range, 78% of the bettors did not move the line, MONEY DID!!! This is an elementary lesson. Second lesson John Q betting Public does not generally wager Sunday through Thursday and don't usually come in until Friday night through Sunday game time with the majority of the Public Money on Sunday. Beware lines that move dramatically on Sunday's because that is usually dead money because it is Public Money. I pounded a game last Sunday as the Packers were -5 to -6.5 all over and on Sunday came in a ton of probably East Coast money on Philly and the line settled Green Bay -4 and I pounced on it. It is always important to follow the money but to know who is doing the betting. John Q Public obviously DID NOT move this Packers//Minnesota line.

I know why some sharps came in and moved this line for a number of reasons. I'm not sure THIS YEAR those reasons are valid. Minnesota always plays Green Bay tougher in Minnesota as does Detroit in Detroit. The Packers are coming off of to 50+ scoring performances and statistically that has proven the kiss of death in the NFL in game 3 of that pattern. Also, and this has been golden this year not only in the NFL but in college as well, when a team covers the spread by over 14pts the team usually doesn't cover the next game. They may be playing the odds since the Packers covered the last two games 14pts over the spread so they are gambling they won't cover this week. Just trying to gage their thinking because Minnesota's personnel surely doesn't warrant the line move

Yours in Winners
BernieV

Well said. I personally bought the line down to - 7 for - 135. While at 8 on bookmakers.

 

[Samhain]

Vikings keep this one close and next week Packers beat Patriots by 10+

 

[Samhain]

first of all when a line opens gb -10 on sunday night and on monday morning was still gb -10 and then through the week minnesota is hit so gb is generally now in the -8/-8.5/ and some -9's range, 78% of the bettors did not move the line, money did!!! This is an elementary lesson. Second lesson john q betting public does not generally wager sunday through thursday and don't usually come in until friday night through sunday game time with the majority of the public money on sunday. Beware lines that move dramatically on sunday's because that is usually dead money because it is public money. I pounded a game last sunday as the packers were -5 to -6.5 all over and on sunday came in a ton of probably east coast money on philly and the line settled green bay -4 and i pounced on it. It is always important to follow the money but to know who is doing the betting. John q public obviously did not move this packers//minnesota line.

I know why some sharps came in and moved this line for a number of reasons. I'm not sure this year those reasons are valid. Minnesota always plays green bay tougher in minnesota as does detroit in detroit. The packers are coming off of to 50+ scoring performances and statistically that has proven the kiss of death in the nfl in game 3 of that pattern. Also, and this has been golden this year not only in the nfl but in college as well, when a team covers the spread by over 14pts the team usually doesn't cover the next game. They may be playing the odds since the packers covered the last two games 14pts over the spread so they are gambling they won't cover this week. Just trying to gage their thinking because minnesota's personnel surely doesn't warrant the line move

yours in winners
berniev

bingo!!!!!

 

[Cantpickem]

First of all when a line opens GB -10 on Sunday night and on Monday morning was still GB -10 and then through the week Minnesota is hit so GB is generally now in the -8/-8.5/ and some -9's range, 78% of the bettors did not move the line, MONEY DID!!! This is an elementary lesson. Second lesson John Q betting Public does not generally wager Sunday through Thursday and don't usually come in until Friday night through Sunday game time with the majority of the Public Money on Sunday. Beware lines that move dramatically on Sunday's because that is usually dead money because it is Public Money. I pounded a game last Sunday as the Packers were -5 to -6.5 all over and on Sunday came in a ton of probably East Coast money on Philly and the line settled Green Bay -4 and I pounced on it. It is always important to follow the money but to know who is doing the betting. John Q Public obviously DID NOT move this Packers//Minnesota line.

I know why some sharps came in and moved this line for a number of reasons. I'm not sure THIS YEAR those reasons are valid. Minnesota always plays Green Bay tougher in Minnesota as does Detroit in Detroit. The Packers are coming off of to 50+ scoring performances and statistically that has proven the kiss of death in the NFL in game 3 of that pattern. Also, and this has been golden this year not only in the NFL but in college as well, when a team covers the spread by over 14pts the team usually doesn't cover the next game. They may be playing the odds since the Packers covered the last two games 14pts over the spread so they are gambling they won't cover this week. Just trying to gage their thinking because Minnesota's personnel surely doesn't warrant the line move

Yours in Winners
BernieV

Earliest line open is 4:04pm 11/16/14
Where are you getting an open of 10?

11/22 07:17 AM	-7½ -110	+7½ -110
11/21 03:55 PM	-7½ -115	+7½ -105
11/21 01:28 PM	-8 -110	+8 -110
11/21 10:55 AM	-9 -105	+9 -115
11/21 10:51 AM	-9 -110	+9 -110
11/19 07:42 AM	-9½ -110	+9½ -110
11/18 09:40 AM	-9 -115	+9 -105
11/17 06:48 AM	-9½ -110	+9½ -110
11/16 06:35 PM	-9 -110	+9 -110
11/16 06:32 PM	-8½ -110	+8½ -110
11/16 04:04 PM	-7½ -110	+7½ -110

 

[Cantpickem]

All I can say is "how about those ViQueens"...

 

[squib]

All I can say is "how about those ViQueens"...

Was a close game that could have gone either way. If GB comes up with a defensive stop late in the 4th, maybe they get the cover. Congrats on the win!

 

[Cantpickem]

tks. Just had the feeling on this game.

 

[squib]

tks. Just had the feeling on this game.

I should have known better with laying the large number on the rd fav. Not sure GB was caught looking ahead to next week but the D just couldn't come up with stops when it needed it. Moving on to next week!