Games that smell

sammythesage · Oct 10, 2003

someone else posted this theme last week; very good thread. Have seen a couple of other threads around the same issue. That being of line movement or lack thereof in games where the public is very heavy on one side. It smells of sharp money on the other side. Last week as I recall went 9-3. This weeks games are as follows and am listing the public side.
b.green
mich.st.
n.car.
neb.
tex.t.
ucla
la.t.
n.tex.
most people on this site are on the public side of these games. So in theory; the play is to fade these teams. We'll see how they do.

sandmanfromlv · Oct 10, 2003

I try and fade the public as much as possible, if the situation is right, two that jump out at me are UNC and Texas Tech, will be on the other side of both of these...

PaulV · Oct 10, 2003

Just wondering...what is the web site where you're pulling the money breakdowns from. Extremely helpful information that I'd like to get my hands on as well. Any help in the right direction would be most appreciated. Thanks.

BrokeN · Oct 10, 2003

Hey Sammy, is that NC or NCST? NCST has 59% while the line opened at -17 and now -15.5. Don't see much on NC.

pinned · Oct 10, 2003

THE REAL KEY- WHO IS JOE PUBLIC???
Good info about the 9-3 ATS record.
It could be like anything else involving gambling- might be streaky?
win a week, lose a week, Who the heck knows???

sammythesage · Oct 11, 2003

look at rcsl31's thread, basically the same thing. that's the tarheels, as line went from 8.5 to 7.5 , yet all the action publically is on them???

BigPete · Oct 11, 2003

Lets see what happens this week, 5-2 two weeks ago, 9-3 last week, but 3 weeks ago was rotten as started by BrokeN, but public usually fairs well in the first few weeks.

TheBigLebowski+ · Oct 11, 2003

As an ecu student and a unc fan, I can tell you this game is going to be a mess. UNC blows over ecu in every category (PF, SOS, etc) etc for all categories except avg. points allowed (but teh difference is less than 6 points). I see UNC rolling here, simply because ecu can't seem to get their offense to click (8 points a game). Talk around here is that ecu is gonna throw a 3rd QB in the mix, which to me only spells trouble. The only way ecu can come close is if they give Townes the ball and rush the hell out of him.

Both teams are horrible and coaching staffs are feeling heat, but I think this one comes down to offense and pride. UNC -7.5 in the Donut Bowl.