Games that smell

[sammythesage]

Lines on these games have either not moved or moved in opposite direction of joe public action. Does that smell of sharp money? We'll post the games and keep track. Am posting the public side of these games, (to qualify must be at least 2.5/1 on one side; some are 5/1 on one side). The play in theory would be to fade these teams.
TB
KC
MIA
DEN
BALT.

 

[Oren1]

o.k. fine but that theory would get you into trouble the frist 3 weeks, only last week did we see any real surprises, right? I'm not saying that were goin gback to easy-money weekends, I think those days are gone and the games are starting to look more like the NFL with hard-fought grudge-matches where you might as well flip a coin, as anything can happen. I don't know, that's a pretty elite list of clubs you've got there. Only one I think I'd be willing to take is Pittsburgh, maybe Green Bay, but I'm not giving up on the Chiefs just yet. I'm hoping that they cover more games than not this year. Even if they books think for some reason the Jags have a chance to cover with 3 points, I've still decided to call their bluff, no ****in way I go against Ricky Williams with a going-no-where team like the Jags. This should be a relatively easy win for them, 2nd road game and all.

 

[sammythesage]

I think those days are gone and the games are starting to look more like the NFL with hard-fought grudge-matches where you might as well flip a coin, as anything can happen.

You just made the case for playing those games; w/your own statement. However I'm not saying to play either way, it's just a theory to try on paper. Seems to be working well in college games. And yes those are elite teams, but now they're joe public's teams as well.

 

[ProPlaya]

Don't fade MIA. They will cover with ease.

 

[Menses]

In my opinion its a very interesting theory worth considering and I used it last week but refused to listen to my own advice and the bucs, seahawks and titans both got clobbered. Every week there are a couple teams that the public wants to punish for loosing the week before and they end up getting burned. This is why joe square will get hammered on sunday in the pitt game. Theres at least two teams on that list that qualify in that situation. Il definitely consider it. Week 6 looks a lot better than last week.

 

[Oren1]

yeah I'm not busting your balls, maybe fading those will go 3-2, who knows. I'm not getting the feeling of impending doom that I had last week, though, heh. I think the best fade on there is Baltimore, even though if I had my pick, being among Joe public, I'd probably take Balt. Their D looked pretty good against K.C., although their quarterback is as green as they come, and his mistakes are of the reasons they lost to K.C. And, although maybe they won't be able to cover, I don't see Gruden letting his club fall to 2-3, not with that defense. I think they'll put enough points up even with their offense depleted. In all probability it won't take many points to win. Washington is improved, but they aren't Carolina or the Colts.

 

[BrokeN]

Can't wait for Vegas to quit giving away money on the Obvious. Will jump on Space without a doubt.

 

[sammythesage]

so far joe public killing the "sharp money" at 3-0.

 

[sammythesage]

4-1 joe public kills books and sharps take a beating.

 

[ChadC]

Smells good over here..

 

[rscl31]

how come dallas and the jets weren't included there?

everyoen was over philly, line dropped
ditto witht he bills

 

[sammythesage]

the betting was more balanced than you think on those two games. Must be more than 66% on one side and no line move or a line move in the wrong direction. Philly line move was in the wrong direction but wagering was very even; that sure looked like smart money getting burned, but it didn't qualify in my book. Was looking for your college results; did you post them yet???