GAME THEORY/STRATEGY SHARPS! What would you if you were TSO?

[ML Dog]

CH BALLERS .	3	2	0	3	60	19	1	60.5
GENERAL TSO .	3	2	0	3	57	23	0	57

LVH Contest, First Place will pay circa $736,000

2nd Place about $295,000.

To my knowledge. Those #'s not exact but close enough for this discussion.

How would you play it?

"Safe"....if so, what is exactly would that look like? In your opinion.

OR...

"TAKE A SHOT to cause what may be the most dramatic win in LVH SuperContest History" and see you profiting an added $440,000?

Here is what it looks like below TSO:

DEGENCHAT .	4	1	0	4	56	24	0	56
CWG 85 .	3	2	0	3	55	25	0	55
T TIME .	3	2	0	3	54	25	1	54.5
BRIEFCASE 2 .	3	2	0	3	54	25	1	54.5
DSHOT702 .	2	3	0	2	54	25	1	54.5

If TSO plummets into that cesspool of a 3rd place tie or worse he'd see that $295,000 for 2nd become MUCH reduced.

What would YOU DO? How would you play it?

If you're of a mind...please feel encouraged to cite specific sides you'd think most +EV to take this weekend. Factoring in motivation level of teams and SPECIFICALLY what your sense might be on what strategy the leader CH Baller is gonna take.

What games do you expect he'll be on....he needs to win just ONE GAME, go 1-4 to Clinch vs. a 5-0 from TSO.


....Please, any and all input. I am in a similar spot in another contest, LVH Copy. Its NOT the one here at RX run so competently by BetAllSports, JOH and RX but one we've had for ages amongst a large group of folks that have known each other for ages, meeting through football leagues our kids have been in, fantasy leagues we've been in, word of mouth...

PLEASE any and all input on Game Theory in general. I'm just 2 games back in my contest....thanks in advance. :banger:

 

[ML Dog]

Oh wait...CH Ballers would need TWO WINS to Clinch, not just one....vs. a perfect card from TSO.

See? I am "mathematically challenged" which is why I ask, IMPLORE of those blessed with MATH SKILLS to chime in.

You increase you payout $440,000...if you can catch & pass CH Ballers.

Whats your play here.....if

YOU ARE TSO ?
​

 

[Betallsports]

I can tell you this much, not that i was in line to win it. But 3 years ago when I was in the money.... Don't Over-think your picks. Meaning Don't change what you have been doing all along during the contest.

I made that mistake back then, and it cost me an extra $16K ( hit for $27K )

My problem came with the Det/GB game. GB had already clinched the NFC North and really had nothing to play for. ( I believe ) ** unless it was home field through out.. ??

anyway the game was being played at GB and while handicapping the game i saw that the Lions haven't won there in years. Weather was Snow and temp was like 13 degrees
Rodgers was to Sit out and Matt Flynn was to start. The Line was Det -4.5

I looked and looked and i couldn't see GB losing. I asked a few Sharp guys that I know and they both told me, you either take Lions or pass on the game.
This went on for days... as I went back and forth with them and reading Every story i could find on Matt Flynn and how some starters would sit.

So I decided to pass on the game and took the Steelers instead -4 ( shale line ) because it went to -7 by that Friday

Bottom line was, Det. did come to play, but so did matt Flynn , as he threw for 480 yards and 6 TD's and won the game outright !

Pitt won too, but it landed on 4 so it was a Push and worth 1/2 point. the difference of that half a point cost me $16,000 if i would have taken GB

So to me, I believe you shouldn't change how you look at or cap the Games.

Not sure what CH Ballers will take this week. My possible GUESS on one game is he will have SD as one of his picks.
My Opinion is he is a Market guy.... and has a good feel of which way the line will move.

As far as General TSO. ... I think He has been around for years, because I remember seeing the name before.

Either way, I'm sure whatever happens.... any of them are in great shape to Cash Big Money.
This being the Largest Pool ever ( and I'm sure it will only Grow in the coming years ) It's a Great Contest.... I love being in it... even if I'm shitting the bed the past couple of years.
I enjoy it a lot.

 

[ML Dog]

I can tell you this much, not that i was in line to win it. But 3 years ago when I was in the money.... Don't Over-think your picks. Meaning Don't change what you have been doing all along during the contest.

Yet to read the rest of your post but had to jump in with a response here because....it real hard to know if one is OverThinking. I feel like SOME DEGREE of over thinking is unavoidable, due to the many "factors" in play Week 17 for teams....like Buffalo.

Totally Upset by OAKLAND. My expectation is that they don't even bring an effort. Considering NE's ATS record in this spot....I posted it in chonce's thread....(I think they're 6-1-1 in meaningless week 17 games ATS (check this, if it's important to you...)

I cannot conceive of the level of discipline it would take to be TSO and not Over Think. me, I'm trying to prevail for just a couple thousand and some change and between now and our sunday deadline I'm gonna be totally overthinking...

...do you really believe anyone...in TSO's spot here....could accomplish NOT overthinking?

 

[ML Dog]

that mistake back then, cost me an extra $16K ( hit for $27K )

Congrats, nonetheless.

My problem came with the Det/GB game. GB had already clinched the NFC North and really had nothing to play for. ( I believe ) ** unless it was home field through out.. ??

anyway the game was being played at GB and while handicapping the game i saw that the Lions haven't won there in years.

Same exact scenario as this year, for GREEN BAY ANYWAY....winner gets BYE, So DET has something to play for this time around....but identical in that ESPN and so many other outlets are are drilling home that The Lions have known overwhelming failure at Lambeau (and specifically Stafford) have done little to impress...on the road.

I completely don't trust Stafford in this spot, right now about only 36% chance I risk DET +7.5 and if the hook wasn't there % would be about 14%. Because I completely don't wanna be relying on an away STAFFORD but DET DEF and the FACT that Rogers and GB have not shown us ANYTHING IMPRESSIVE vs. STOUT D.

...OK now I go and continue reading your reply. Thanks for it by the way. A veteran of the very war in question lol.

 

[Betallsports]

Yet to read the rest of your post but had to jump in with a response here because....it real hard to know if one is OverThinking. I feel like SOME DEGREE of over thinking is unavoidable, due to the many "factors" in play Week 17 for teams....like Buffalo.

Totally Upset by OAKLAND. My expectation is that they don't even bring an effort. Considering NE's ATS record in this spot....I posted it in chonce's thread....(I think they're 6-1-1 in meaningless week 17 games ATS (check this, if it's important to you...)

I cannot conceive of the level of discipline it would take to be TSO and not Over Think. me, I'm trying to prevail for just a couple thousand and some change and between now and our sunday deadline I'm gonna be totally overthinking...

...do you really believe anyone...in TSO's spot here....could accomplish NOT overthinking?

Yes it would be very hard Not to Over-think it. But for Me, it has killed me the past couple of years.

 

[ML Dog]

Pittsburgh Pushed, worth 1/2 point. the difference of that half a point cost me $16,000compared to if I would have just taken GB/QUOTE]

OH LORD HELP ME.

"Silver Lining", Complete SOLACE that there is NO WAY you can debate is that you had a great enough year to even be in that spot.

I mean....imagine how really SMALL a % of guys are ever gonna BE up in the cash zone for LVH....

especially going FORWARD if this year's results are an indicator and not just some CRAZY ABBERATION. Which I, and many others, are hoping they are lol.

I don't know where the hell CH Ballers % came from. I postulate that he's been able to adapt better than others to:

1).how rule changes (increased Pass Interference, Roughing calls) &

2). "subtle encouragement" on the part of Goddell & NFL Brass to have games officiated in a manner thats gonna be conducive to increased offense + more competitive games. Refer to item #1

Historically Speaking....I believe that I am not way off when I say that a winner around 56(?) was what could have been reasonably expected...cashline around 52???

I have a strong sense that The Top 2, at the very least, have overperformed historical #'s in LVH....considerably. I may be wrong.

 

[The Guesser]

General Tso just has to keep playing the same way he has. His odds of losing money by changing up are far greater than trying to outhink Chi Ballers and go opposite what he thinks Chi Ballers will be playing.
Now, if a guy is out of cashing position, but a great week might get him in a cashing position, his best shot is to totally "overthink", not play it safe, and take the worst of the lines. Take KC-3, and any other off lines. It's his best chance of gaining games, because guys in the money are going to play it safe.

 

[ML Dog]

As far as General TSO. ... I think He has been around for years, because I remember seeing the name before.

Yes. he has been around a while. I heard from someone, but don't know how reliable this is cuz it was them saying what they had heard from someone else but I was told he cashed for around $36,000 one year and around 16K another.

...for what 4th or worse hand info is worth lmeao.

What is certain is that this is not his first rodeo.

But he has never been on The Main Stage as he is here.

Too bad he's all of 3.5 down.

1.5 down would have been SOOOOOO much better for everyone here. Except CH Ballers.

 

[Betallsports]

Pittsburgh Pushed, worth 1/2 point. the difference of that half a point cost me $16,000compared to if I would have just taken GB/QUOTE]

OH LORD HELP ME.

"Silver Lining", Complete SOLACE that there is NO WAY you can debate is that you had a great enough year to even be in that spot.

I mean....imagine how really SMALL a % of guys are ever gonna BE up in the cash zone for LVH....

especially going FORWARD if this year's results are an indicator and not just some CRAZY ABBERATION. Which I, and many others, are hoping they are lol.

I don't know where the hell CH Ballers % came from. I postulate that he's been able to adapt better than others to:

1).how rule changes (increased Pass Interference, Roughing calls) &

2). "subtle encouragement" on the part of Goddell & NFL Brass to have games officiated in a manner thats gonna be conducive to increased offense + more competitive games. Refer to item #1

Historically Speaking....I believe that I am not way off when I say that a winner around 56(?) was what could have been reasonably expected...cashline around 52???

I have a strong sense that The Top 2, at the very least, have overperformed historical #'s in LVH....considerably. I may be wrong.

last years winner won with 60.5 points

Here is an interesting LVH stat this year ( season ) there has only been 2 Ties, where in past years there has been Much More

 

[ML Dog]

General Tso just has to keep playing the same way he has. His odds of losing money by changing up are far greater than trying to outhink Chi Ballers and go opposite what he thinks Chi Ballers will be playing.
Now, if a guy is out of cashing position, but a great week might get him in a cashing position, his best shot is to totally "overthink", not play it safe, and take the worst of the lines. Take KC-3, and any other off lines. It's his best chance of gaining games, because guys in the money are going to play it safe.

Cleveland +13.5...for example ?
St. Louis + 11.5 ?
Friggin DETROIT + 7.5 ???!!??? Not to mention OAKTOWN +14.5

Do you expect, Guesser, that those in The Cash Zone will be on these teams.

Many of them do LOVE double digit dogs. Understandably so of course...as its all about getting Value, and as much of that, wherever one can.....in a play.

 

[ML Dog]

last years winner won with 60.5 points

Here is an interesting LVH stat this year ( season ) there has only been 2 Ties, where in past years there has been Much More

Well jeez. OK.

For some reason I thought previous winners had been, at best, 58 and most normally circa 56.

CHBallers is off a 3-2. I believe that he has had 2 losing weeks all year.

What if he layed a goosegg 1-4 and TSO PULLED that 5-0 to win? That would be amazing huh?

 

[Betallsports]

As far as General TSO. ... I think He has been around for years, because I remember seeing the name before.

Yes. he has been around a while. I heard from someone, but don't know how reliable this is cuz it was them saying what they had heard from someone else but I was told he cashed for around $36,000 one year and around 16K another.

...for what 4th or worse hand info is worth lmeao.

What is certain is that this is not his first rodeo.

But he has never been on The Main Stage as he is here.

Too bad he's all of 3.5 down.

1.5 down would have been SOOOOOO much better for everyone here. Except CH Ballers.

Yeah the Best I have done in the LVH is tied for 8th, and was 8 points behind ( the winner had 60.5 points )

wouldn't mind being in that position again... hope in the future I will be.

We have had more than a few RX posters here Cash. NFL Trends last year finished tied for 6th

 

[The Guesser]

Cleveland +13.5...for example ?
St. Louis + 11.5 ?
Friggin DETROIT + 7.5 ???!!??? Not to mention OAKTOWN +14.5

Do you expect, Guesser, that those in The Cash Zone will be on these teams.

Many of them do LOVE double digit dogs. Understandably so of course...as its all about getting Value, and as much of that, wherever one can.....in a play.

As it turned out, Cleve +13.5 is the real line, so I'm not sure about that one. Det +7.5 is the real line. Oakland is +14, which is the real line. SL +11.5 is off, Ariz +6 is off, looks like NYG -3 might be off, Atlanta -4 might be off, Dallas -6 might be off. If I had to guess, Chi Ballers, and guys playing it safe will use SD +3 and Carolina +4 as 2 of their picks, and they will be 2 of the top 5 most popular picks. SD +3 will be the overwhelming #1 pick.

 

[ML Dog]

As far as General TSO. ... I think He has been around for years, because I remember seeing the name before.

Yeah the Best I have done in the LVH is tied for 8th, and was 8 points behind ( the winner had 60.5 points )

wouldn't mind being in that position again... hope in the future I will be.

We have had more than a few RX posters here Cash. NFL Trends last year finished tied for 6th

52 is SOLID
​

We're gonna do better next year.

You watch.

One of us is gonna win it because many of us...

we're collectively "inspired" by what CH Ballers has accomplished. This is a record. And by a handsome margin.

This is Tiger Woods shit. JordanESQUE.

How funny would it be if this it Mike's entry?

Like Guesser said...."CHI BALLERS"

Why did he call it that?....and not it's real name? CH Ballers.

Guesser knows something. That was among the Top 10 "Freudian Slips" of all time lol.

Mike is one of us. He loves to gamble. As any sane person would.

If this proves to be Jordan's entry we're gonna have to issue him an ultimatum:

"Come, be amongst us here and help us 'cap stuff....beat The Man"

and if he says no we're gonna have to kick him off the planet. Make him go live in The Space Station.

...cuz ain't no way the man can own B-ball then dominate LVH Super like this.

You watch though. Several RXers gonna ROMP next year on LVH Super.

I'm feelin' that YOU will get your wish, and be among the RXers where Ballers, TSO....Degenchat are this year. Because you've accumulated MUCH GOOD KARMA from the Gambling Gods due to your generous bringing of...as you put it: "A fun contest without Rollover etc."

JOH certainly needs to get into LVH 2015. Dudes got near "Sainthood" among the Gambling Gods.....spirit of Jimmy Snyder and the like. Next year's LVH is gonna be off the hook. All jest and Astral Projection aside: we learned stuff this season. This is a changed NFL.

WE ARE GONNA ADAPT. and OWN.
​

 

[ML Dog]

As it turned out, Cleve +13.5 is the real line, so I'm not sure about that one. Det +7.5 is the real line. Oakland is +14, which is the real line. SL +11.5 is off, Ariz +6 is off, looks like NYG -3 might be off, Atlanta -4 might be off, Dallas -6 might be off. If I had to guess, Chi Ballers, and guys playing it safe will use SD +3 and Carolina +4 as 2 of their picks, and they will be 2 of the top 5 most popular picks. SD +3 will be the overwhelming #1 pick.

If you get THAT RIGHT. And CAR+4 is among the top EVEN FIVE amongst the TOP 5%....I am buying you something.

Seriously. Carolina is gonna have their hands full. ATL is playing with inertia, Matty Ice a seasoned Postseason QB and this is the equivalent of postseason DO OR DIE NFC South Champ has never repeated, Cam is far from 100%, knows INTUITIVELY he'd be better off getting the season over with, His Docs likely telling him the same thing.

Start dreaming of something you want. A sweet taco bell gift card or something.

Seriously. ComputrBOB will be happy to verify. If CAR+4 is among the top 5 %'s TOP 5 you win a free 5 buck box. Or whatever.

After I come to after PASSING THE FOCK OUT from complete stunned-ness.

I'll give you SD+3.

I'm feeling ATL on Baller's card. Thats the only one I'm sure of....NYG is venturing NEAR "sure of" on my part. Indianapolis -7(?) over hapless ass 2-13 ATS Tennessee....

Unless they're gonna kick Whisenhunt to the curb....which if they did would be a massive error....

This dude is gonna be playin' for the draft pick. Whisenhunt, unless he is gonna lose his job is a Franchise Building Master who just ain't been given the 7-10 years that would ensure construction of a total DYNASTY. Which he could accomplish if a team, any team, would give him the chance. This man in particular wants that #1 Draft Pick.

Titans might score....MINUS 2 points lol.

 

[ML Dog]

As it turned out, Cleve +13.5 is the real line, so I'm not sure about that one. Det +7.5 is the real line. Oakland is +14, which is the real line. SL +11.5 is off, Ariz +6 is off, looks like NYG -3 might be off, Atlanta -4 might be off, Dallas -6 might be off. If I had to guess, Chi Ballers, and guys playing it safe will use SD +3 and Carolina +4 as 2 of their picks, and they will be 2 of the top 5 most popular picks. SD +3 will be the overwhelming #1 pick.

Agree with that. SD as top.

#1 selection, consensus amongst all SuperContest players did quite well this season.

Not sure what happened to the previous post I typed in response to your theorizing Carolina +4 would be popular...

it seems to have gotten lost. Unless I just flubbed hitting a button.

....that post would have been a lot more entertaining than this one will be cuz now I'm paranoid something in that post got it not approved to go through...cuz still all my posts get "will appear after approval by Mod". How long does that last?

...anyways.....maybe that post still comes through, prolly not....whatever though...jist was: real hard for me to imagine Carolina being used much at all outside those trying to break into the top 30 to cash.

Impossible for me to fathom Carolina used among the top entrants.

I'm very surprised you think Carolina will be a Top 5 pick. I actually expect, just off the top of my head,

1). San Diego 2). Atlanta 3). NY Giants 4). Indianapolis 5). tie between Oakland & Arizona

and for Carolina to be about 12th. At best.

 

[slapshot]

Vikings won't quit and the Bears have

 

[barnstorm]

Yes Carolina might be a top pick because the line has moved from +4 down to +3 now!

Seattle might be a top pick because the line has moved up to 13 and you can get it for 11.5.

Eagles might be a top pick because you can get them +3 and now it is only +2.5.

Colts don't really have anything to play for. True that Titans want to lose but will they lose by more than 7?

And of course Chargers will be a top pick among the leaders who want to play it safe.

And I expect we will have one more surprise in the next few hours.

So if you are a leader, you want to go with the best value but not against your original leans.

And if you are trailing, you are almost forced to go with the bad lines and hope for the best.

 

[ML Dog]

Yes Carolina might be a top pick because the line has moved from +4 down to +3 now!

Seattle might be a top pick because the line has moved up to 13 and you can get it for 11.5.

Eagles might be a top pick because you can get them +3 and now it is only +2.5.

Colts don't really have anything to play for. True that Titans want to lose but will they lose by more than 7?

And of course Chargers will be a top pick among the leaders who want to play it safe.

And I expect we will have one more surprise in the next few hours.

So if you are a leader, you want to go with the best value but not against your original leans.

And if you are trailing, you are almost forced to go with the bad lines and hope for the best.

Man.

Within each week of this season....this LVH SuperContest and the contest here....what have we had? A couple of stale lines a week?

I know all of them...that we've had. I ain't got them written down and I only log in my brain a line as "stale" if its 1.5 off or greater...unless the total on the game is under 42.

All that to illustrate this:

This final week is Epic.

This is approaching complete focking KAOS.