Game of my life goes this week!!!

[Streaky]

Okay guys and gals, you might think I'm just another mouthy newbie because I never post, but I have been in the game since I was about 14 (32 now) and Saturday night has got the game of my life! Being a little over dramatic, but I really think MSU -6-/7 is THE play of the year in CFB. I'm not a big stats guy, especially when non conference teams meet. I mostly choose games based on talent and line value and I think I've got both here in a big way.

Talent:
MSU beat then #5 WISC 49-14.
MSU almost upset MICH at the Big House.
MSU should have beat OSU were it not for Ginn big plays. (Chad Owens is no Ginn)

UH is 4-4 in the W(E)AC
UH lost to the only three decent teams in the WAC by a combined 190-37

Line Value
MSU coming off loss to PSU. Trap game being that it might have been Jo Pa's last and the team wanted to come up big for him + MSU letdown after huge WISC victory.

UH coming off of Big 10 victory vs NW.
UH 6-1 at home this year. Lost to Flordia Atlantic and beat Tulsa, Nevada, San Jose, La tech, Idaho, and NW. Nuff said.

I know Hawaii has played pretty well in these end of the year Big 10 games in the past, but I think this one is set up for a HUGE MSU win. I could rattle on about other factors such as OFF/DEF line disparities, but I think the case has already been made. At least for me it has!

Good luck to any who dare listen!

 

[ElIguana]

You have some good points, Streaky, but remember that the trip to the tropics has strange effects on opposing teams. Few would dispute that Northwestern is a better all around team that plays a much tougher schedule in tougher conditions.....but who won that game outright as a 6 point underdog last Saturday? Be careful, my friend. GL

 

[truelyhandicapping]

if i can take northwestern -6 vs hawaii


you can bet your life i'm all over mich st. this could be one of the wost beatings in hawaii five o history.

great selection my friend.arty:

 

[ppeter]

I strongly believe that nobody in this forum is better than calling Hawaii games than me. Just ask those that got my call on the OVER last week. Just ask all the posters at the Rx Bash I told Hawaii was pure go against in the early part of the season.

And I can tell you this: you are dead WRONG. :nono5:

 

[KennyB]

Last Week when Hawaii opened up at a 7 to 7' point dog against Northwestern I jumped on it. I then got nervous when I saw some posters that I respect giving out Northwestern big. I put a little bit on Northwestern at -6 but was wasn't surprised when I woke up Sunday and saw that Hawaii won.

Same thing this week. Hawaii opened up at +7 and I jumped all over it again.

Teams go out to Hawaii and think they are on vacation. Hawaii has a tough offense at home and although their defense is not great, teams have to put up a lot of points on offense to win.

I like Hawaii plus the points and will tease them up in my 10 pointers.

 

[Streaky]

Give me something tangible. Not just "teams don't focus in Hawaii blah", or, "I won a bet on Hawaii blah", or, "Northwestern blah blah." What about Hawaii coming off of their most physical game of the year? What about MSU having two weeks to rest and prepare? What about a Hawaii letdown game after the biggest win of their season? I'm no amateur my friends and I don't need you telling me that Hawaii is a good home team. I am aware of that. If you are gonna try and out think handicap me, bring something to the table other than "blah blah blah."

 

[truelyhandicapping]

back to back weeks vs the big ten

i know the big ten isn't great, but ....

lets be reasonable here, state 2 weeks off, watching hawaii win lst week was the best thing for state, they will not go in and think is a bye week.
northwestern isn't even in the same league as state talent wise, if you watched any big ten this year, northwestern is a bottom feeding team that got lucky with a couple of wins. while state pissed away a few games.:nono5:

state rolls this team

 

[ElIguana]

Streaky, I didn't intend any disrespect--you are probably a far better capper than I am. But I assume you posted this thread because you want feedback, which we are providing.

I would not be surprised at all to see MSU win by 20+ on Saturday. But again I caution you about making a game like this "the game of your life." Road favorites can be a rough bet, much rougher than a home dog. But if you love MSU -7 that much, mortgage the house! I'm sure you know what you are doing and the risks you are taking. I have just lost many "sure things" in my wagering career. GL

 

[dr_smith316]

gotta agree with you El Iguana - does anybody in here remember how good PSU's O looked against MSU; and the Spartans weren't suffering from jet lag then either; at 5-6 MSU is treating this like a bowl game - I don't think they will not cover this spread and might actually get upset... play it safe and take the under 72 (MSu will not let UH go up and down the field - UH will miss some scoring opportunities)

 

[Streaky]

Hahaha...I'm just goofing around with you guys! I'm not really p o'd because you don't like the game. I'm just stirring up the crap a little. Obviously I still like the game though, and still don't hear any convincing argument against it. My philosophy that has worked well for many years is don't go against what has worked in the past. I don't change my mind in capping too much, otherwise I would go nuts with the "what ifs." Thanks for the free advice though.

And I'm out of here....PEACE

 

[ElIguana]

Streaky, my system that has paid off all season in CFB is betting home dogs....more cover than do not cover. That being said, that is home dogs as a whole, any one game can be a winner or a loser. GL

 

[HookEmHorns]

OVERS!!!!!!!!

Mich St.'s defense is not that good. Hawaii's offense will put up big points as usual. Hawaii defense is horrible . Mich St. offense not bad, and should put up big points against a very crappy Hawaii D. This game should go into the high eighties or more!

State 50
Hawaii 44

 

[SpreadDestroyerr]

Going against Hawaii as a TD Home Dog is SUICIDE in my opinion. I'll NEVER forget getting BURNED BAD when I took a 10-3 Alabama team coached by Dennis Franchione that had been ROLLING great SEC teams (31-0 @ LSU, 34-14 @ TEN). Bama was laying 11.5 @ Hawaii and was flat out LUCKY to win Straight Up 21-16. Lost like 3 dimes on that game. One of the biggest bets i've made on one particular game. Just my .02.


I've also heard the refs in Hawaii are very biased towards them. Either way you slice it, VERY tough place to play for ANY team. Be careful!

 

[TheRegulator]

I think they key stat here is the H/A records of both teams. I was on the wrong side with NW last week, but I am definitely NOT making the same mistake this week. MSU is a total different animal on the road as their only win was against lowly Indy, which they even had to make a huge 2nd half comeback to win that. They even lost to flipping PSU and Rutgers. BTW, What is the status of Stanton? Because if he returns, it might keep me off Hawaii?

MSU might have better talent, but Hawaii overcomes that because it plays so much better on the islands and the visiting teams generally don't show up. I will be HI if I play this....

 

[winkyduck]

agree here with ppeter and against this guy


the better play here appears to be the DOG - Hawaii and the points

this game means NOTHING to MSua nd EVERYTHING to hawaii

to me - this is a chance for a cold weather school to spend a week on the beach enjoying the sun and looking at the pretty girls (before they get into their 40s and weigh more than most MSU linemen) in skimpy bikinis and/or shorts and halter tops

 

[BALLBREAKER]

Being from Michigan

I will almost bet my life that half of the team will still be DRUNK AS HELL come game-time.

State is going to Hawaii to party.........not play football

Take Hawaii and the points and get paid:drink:

I WILL:howdy:

PEACE:monkey:

 

[Streaky]

I've watched the majority of games played by each team this year (I even saw UH play live while visiting the Islands), and there is no comparison talent wise. I love the fact that NW lost outright. That provided line value. In fact I have seen it down to 6 in some instances. Of course there are decent arguments for the UH side; but, that is what makes it a great spot for dropping bombs. If there were no light at the end of the UH tunnel, the line would be 24. I will likely not need to worry about the back door being open with the short line. Another thing that none have pointed out is that winning in HI by 7 is like winning in other places by 3. Not many field goals at Aloha Stadium. I can go on and on. And to the fellow who "truly believes" he knows UH better than anyone else....NIGGA PLEASE!!

 

[HookEmHorns]

I will almost bet my life that half of the team will still be DRUNK AS HELL come game-time.

State is going to Hawaii to party.........not play football

Take Hawaii and the points and get paid:drink:

I WILL:howdy:

PEACE:monkey:

I agree 100%. Same thing happened to that Bama team. Last game of the season, playing for nothing (Bama was on probation and couldn't go to a bowl), and in Hawaii. I live in East Lansing, and I know State will take advantage of the Hawaiian climate. Do the math! State will not be focused.

 

[KennyB]

The Big Ten is weak this year. Michigan State is a mediocre team and was laying a TD on the road against a team that can score.

One of my betting strategies is not to fall in the trap betting on "bad teams".



PS I bet New Jersey the other day when they lost at Washington so it happens to the best of us.

 

[GoSooners]

Boy...that "game of my life" statement will get you every time. I vote that we get statements like "game of my life" and "lock of the year" get censored off of this site forever. All their good for is jinxing my bets.:nono5: