Gambling, capping and vegas

[doctor9]

i sit here every week from the start of the pre season until the pro bowl. i get home from work, shower, eat dinner see the kids and old lady and the its numbers time 6 days a week for at least an hour. can someone please tell me why i waste my time trying to "cap" nfl games????? i pour over numbers for hours on end and the results are still the same, im still broke. after 26 years of betting and "cappin" for the last 8 years IM STILL BROKE! correct me if im wrong, that little city in nevada has experts that use computers to run every possible stat and number that can be thought of.


that is how the line is made.

ok what makes me think im going to find something that they havent included to help me beat the line????. i have followed over the years, trend betting, revenge games, line movement, fade the public, before the bye week, super systems. steam moves, whales, wise guys, nothing ever works out. im still losing money. are we meant to beat the house or are we just supposed to watch our money get taken while we get some form of entertainment? bettin an nfl game is like when i go to the yankee game, 3 hours of entertainment for $500.00. and then u go home home broke. over the past 2 decades ive lost 10's of thousands of dollars, not like alot here who claim to put that up in a weekend, when u know as well as i do u cant bet that way if u have a house and kids. try and tell the truth about bankrolls. honestly since week one i suck ass from 1:00 to 4:00 and hit my last 3 sunday nighters and last 3 monday nighters. with a winning percentage like that i'll be on the cheeseline by thanksgiving. i enjoy the rush of sittin there for 3 hours per game waiting to see if i studied enough for some chance at a win but who am i trying to beat stat geniuses and computers???? i gotta go study week 6 is in a few days:toast:

 

[ALSportsJunkie]

Have you tried fading yourself? Seriously...don't over think anything on the board, write down your first impression, and go against it. It will be tough, but you may thank me later.

:toast:

 

[Blah]

Like my grandfather used to always say" two things happen when you gamble , and one happens a lot more than the other" i've been around degerates my whole life mainly at the track. In all the years i've never seen anyone start a business from gambling but i've seen many people lose one. If you're good at it and stick to a money management plan you should lose about 5 cents on the dollar. The only positve expectation in gambling(other than betting against you not so savy friends) is betting a pick 6 at a Major racetrack with a carryover or even better a two day carryover

 

[dl36]

keep it up... GL

 

[cashducats]

i think the biggest problem with most bettors is too much action.

if you just limited yourself to 2-3 plays of equal amount the an entire weekend my guess is you'll have a winning percentage.

if you dont have the confidence to bet the same amount on each play, then don't play it.

 

[ESQAJM]

Why did it take you 26 years to realize this. The post you wrote could have been written by myself, but it only took me about 20 years to realize it.

So I did 2 things about it:
1. I cut the size of my bets down and stopped losing big money. I still enjoy the betting even though I'm only betting about 25% of what I bet years ago.

2. I don't handicap games any more myself. There are a few guys on here that post a winning record year after year. I don't know how they do it, but they consistently do. So I had 2 choices.
(a) Continue with my own handicapping and lose money every year.
(b) Tail 1-3 cappers that I found to be consistently good and make some money every year, or at worst just break even for the year or show a small loss.

After agonizing over this choice for a long time (at least 30 seconds) I chose (b). I've been doing this for many years now. The cappers have changed, but my method keeps going. I get just as excited betting $50 a game as $250, so the pressure of a big loss isn't there.

Do some research on the board and you will get a feel as to who the best cappers are. Tail them and cut your losses and also save many hours a week of handicapping. This will give you more time to play with your kids and have sex with your wife. (not necessarily in that order)

If you take my advice, let me know at the end of the season how it worked out.

 

[Kaveman]

Ask yourself why you bet. Looking for action; sure way to lose. Chasing? Ditto. Parlays and the like? Throwing money away. Most guys I see make too many bets, and often for the wrong reasons.

I only make them on games I feel real good about, and if it means letting some weeks go by without gambling at all, so be it. Last week I made one bet, big on Indy. Been at this for 35 years and most years come out a little ahead or do no worse than break even.
Figure out why things are going wrong first.

 

[NumberFreak]

correct me if im wrong, that little city in nevada has experts that use computers to run every possible stat and number that can be thought of.


that is how the line is made.

ok what makes me think im going to find something that they havent included to help me beat the line????

I don't think that is how the line is made. Vegas' main goal in setting the line is to counteract how they think the public is influenced to bet. You're not betting against Vegas, you're betting against everyone else that bets so you need to work harder than "everyone else" or you will fall into the same category as "everyone else". You have to be better than the average Joe. You need to be more creative and/or have better instincts (talent). What good would it do Vegas to have "magic information" that no one else knows (which they don't) to set lines that are far enough away from the public influence that all the action ends up on one side? You people give them way too much credit. You can come up with information THEY haven't thought of. They don't have a crystal ball and they don't know who's going to win. No one does. If all the action's on one side, even if it's the side Vegas thinks is the right side, the game still has to be played and the ball takes funny bounces so it would be bad business to take that kind of a chance IMO. They don't need to with the juice on their side.

Think about it, if oddsmakers always knew who was gonna win they wouldn't set lines, they'd beat the line like you and I am trying to do and win every week, but they don't win every week, they win over time and the public loses over time because of odds and mistakes. All they're doing each week is adjusting to which way the money's coming in from the public. If they weren't, there would be no line movement.

 

[doctor9]

hi number,
thanks for the reply. i can agree with you about vegas adjusting the line DURING THE WEEK after the initial lines have been established. but monday morning when the majority of next weeks lines come out(excluding sunday nights teams and monday nights teams) someone had to use a boatload of info to determine that the ny giants will be favored by 10 , o/u 42 over the rams.after early money comes in and lines have to be moved to get equal betting. how was it determined that nyg should be 10 and not 3?? my guess is pypg,pa,rypg,run d ,pass d , qb rating,special teams,power ratings,plus a thousand other important stats.


anyway i guess my problem is why is capper a better than capper b with the same internet info, can systems truly exist?is there a software that can be used to gain an edge? can we crunch numbers with excel?

 

[aiverson]

You need to put in work, study, and come prepared. Time investment is what it takes to consistently pick 60% and above. Person A puts in 10 hrs a week handicapping. Person B puts in 20 hrs a week to handicap. That is not enough. Person C puts in 70 hrs a week in 1 sport, and is successful. If person C is smart enough and has put in the work, he should be successful.

As for systems, I can 100% tell you it's possible. I can attest to 67% over 3 yrs and 75% so far this year, fully monitored.

AOL Money & Finance

It takes a ton of time to create something like that - took me 5 years to build it. But it is possible. Personally, I am like Person C above. I only handicap NFL and I spend about 70 hrs/week handicapping it.

 

[FearAndLoathing]

Follow

There are a very few who win, doctor.
I am going to give you some excellent advice...
Number freak--follow him.
Aiverson--has a service. It IS worth buying.
Tail him.
Finally, wildcats29. This guy posts big winners
every year. You have to check in just prior to
the start of games to catch his plays.
When they're all in agreement on a play,
step it up a touch and you'll be ahead.

 

[LIONSJUNKIE]

Why did it take you 26 years to realize this. The post you wrote could have been written by myself, but it only took me about 20 years to realize it.

So I did 2 things about it:
1. I cut the size of my bets down and stopped losing big money. I still enjoy the betting even though I'm only betting about 25% of what I bet years ago.

2. I don't handicap games any more myself. There are a few guys on here that post a winning record year after year. I don't know how they do it, but they consistently do. So I had 2 choices.
(a) Continue with my own handicapping and lose money every year.
(b) Tail 1-3 cappers that I found to be consistently good and make some money every year, or at worst just break even for the year or show a small loss.

After agonizing over this choice for a long time (at least 30 seconds) I chose (b). I've been doing this for many years now. The cappers have changed, but my method keeps going. I get just as excited betting $50 a game as $250, so the pressure of a big loss isn't there.

Do some research on the board and you will get a feel as to who the best cappers are. Tail them and cut your losses and also save many hours a week of handicapping. This will give you more time to play with your kids and have sex with your wife. (not necessarily in that order)

If you take my advice, let me know at the end of the season how it worked out.

:toast:

Exactly what I've done over the last few years...my bets are about 25% of what they used to be but I still get the same rush. I have cut my bets to 2 or 3 at 1:00, usually 1 or 2 at 4:00, the SNF + MNF games. I follow a few good cappers here and at a few places and then ultimately make MY plays based on their plays and what I'm liking...been a good season and B2B great weeks for me

 

[BAGIANT]

Stop capping and start betting the other way. This way you are booking your own bets...except now you'll be WINNING instead of losing!

It's a very simple solution to help you end your losing streak. Just don't be one of those that won't use this "system" because you'll be afraid that you'll go on a winning streak. Think how many times it's happened in the past!

 

[Blah]

making your picks and betting against them sounds most ungatifying. Yes gambling is about winning. But its also about being right and predicting the future. If you fade yourself you're admiting your a loser and when you lose and would have won it would make it al the more frustrating

 

[STACKSONDECK]

You need to put in work, study, and come prepared. Time investment is what it takes to consistently pick 60% and above. Person A puts in 10 hrs a week handicapping. Person B puts in 20 hrs a week to handicap. That is not enough. Person C puts in 70 hrs a week in 1 sport, and is successful. If person C is smart enough and has put in the work, he should be successful.

As for systems, I can 100% tell you it's possible. I can attest to 67% over 3 yrs and 75% so far this year, fully monitored.

AOL Money & Finance

It takes a ton of time to create something like that - took me 5 years to build it. But it is possible. Personally, I am like Person C above. I only handicap NFL and I spend about 70 hrs/week handicapping it.

this dudes the truth i mean the answer:lol:

 

[NumberFreak]

hi number,
thanks for the reply. i can agree with you about vegas adjusting the line DURING THE WEEK after the initial lines have been established. but monday morning when the majority of next weeks lines come out(excluding sunday nights teams and monday nights teams) someone had to use a boatload of info to determine that the ny giants will be favored by 10 , o/u 42 over the rams.after early money comes in and lines have to be moved to get equal betting. how was it determined that nyg should be 10 and not 3?? my guess is pypg,pa,rypg,run d ,pass d , qb rating,special teams,power ratings,plus a thousand other important stats.


anyway i guess my problem is why is capper a better than capper b with the same internet info, can systems truly exist?is there a software that can be used to gain an edge? can we crunch numbers with excel?

When you set lines each week, you're going to get a good feel of the public "image" of each and every team. It's not about stats, it's about knowing how much the public is going to pay for each team in that particular setting. No different from any business. You can only charge what someone is willing to pay and you learn where those areas are based on experience and it's always changing week to week.

As far as systems, being systematic is the most consistent way to win because you can't screw yourself up with emotions when you're following a script. You also MUST devote full-time hours to any sport to see results. It will take up all the hours you're willing to spend on it.