??????Gambler Theory Regression Discussions.????????

[G-Man!]

A classic example of a gambler's regression theory would be MistaFlava. After having an unbelievable year he fell into that theory lock stock and barrel.

Why is a theory always some magical power of results to success of any gambler.?
I spoke with Flava over the years. He was at another site full of losers and he left there just before me.
If Theory is all you can base his season on - then when youre saying "He fell Lock-Stock- and Barrel is nuts. Do you understand why he became average last year? I do.
His parameters were misleading him and he had no consistent parameters to use in 2021. Its exactly what happened to me in bases and foots until the last portion of the season. which was only a small window to say the least.

Based on your theory assumption no-one should have any long running success.?
If thats true then no one should ever gamble.
But I believe its NOT true, and that is not even possible. Because Vegas would have to fall into the same classification and lose as well. They dont.

If anyone expected him to repeat you do not know anything about gambling. My personal opinion is that after examing all the facts and information of the subject is that he got LUCKY as hell for 1 year. I rode with him going all the way up and knew when to get off that horse which was the next year. Personally I think you can start fading him till the cows come home. Examine the facts and information.

He could possibly repeat this year because he is likely to be able to have his parameters back.
To make the claim that we dont know anything about gambling, is so misleading, that it amplifies that you are over-reaching and guessing to say the least.

Lucky you say? Show me what the factors were that made him lucky? He used data and a scientific process to arrive at his decisions.
What happened in that data - was the effect that Covid had with players out randomly and many without notice. It killed everything for all sports. It was so difficult to adjust for and those parameters were not visible from week to week.
So - the effect was a lack of consistency to cap at almost any point.

What happened in the bowl season and the very end of the NFL in the playoffs was that there was enough timely info and players listed in time, to cap games.
For you to fade anyone that is no longer producing what he once had, is logical. But I dont know how you could fade him till the cows come home in the upcoming season? You would be a stupid as DOC and Big Foo Lou.

If I'm able to produce that positive outcome like I did here in the 19 and 20 baseball seasons you then are already down more than 7,700..00 dollars fading me.
Flava was always s a contributor and when someone like yourself out there starts to condemn him, it shows the you have no explanation for why he regressed except for being "LUCKY or Not Lucky?
Lastly you said examine the facts and information? Thats an open statement - so why dont you show the facts and information that you believe were all luck when he won.
Because if you cant show us those facts, then you can never show the facts that caused him to lose? Which means you are simply commenting without knowledge because you aren't able to prove how both outcomes happened. Not the Winning days he had and not the losing days.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

That's's one hell of a rebuttal. All I can add to that is I have been around gamblers all my life and 98% of them go broke sooner or later. Streak's don't go on for ever if they did everyone would be a winner. Do you ever known anyone to go back to back 70% seasons? I have been on both sides of the fence as a bettor/bookmaker in all my years as a BM 25+ I have never seen it. It's called coming back to the means. As for MF record over the years I can't give you exact numbers but I do recall average/losing at best. No 70% in there. Have you ever gone 70% back to back over a full season? I would say no. According to DOC you had losing CF and NFL season. Now you are having a winning baseball season. You are coming back to the means. By the end of the season you might be even. I am just playing the numbers.

 

[NumberFreak]

If I may throw in my .02 here as I love philosophy discussions, a long track record of at least 1,000 samples starts giving a pretty good idea of the long term EV of a "scientific", rules-based prediction model. There's plenty of luck in sportsbetting and a large sample size is really the only way to tell if what you have is a long term winner or loser and how to tell what is regression. And even then, dynamics can change over time with rule changes, player tendencies, etc. so I try to look at a rolling 1000-2000 samples.

Best of luck.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

One more thing GM I do not have enough data to fade you yet. But if you have one of those years that fall to far from normalcy you could be a canadat. Nothing personal. I am talking about next year.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Do you remember a poster QOH? She had one LUCKY year and after that she thought she was an expert on the NFL. Sad to say she never had a winning season after the first year. Broken and dejected was the horse. The faders made a ton. This is a tough game. I am sure you are aware of that. Just another tool for the too bag.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Going back to MF. The sheer number of games he bets almost everyone. A recipe for disaster. The more game's you bet the harder to win. The juice alone will kill his system. He says his systems are based on information yet some of is information is irrelevant. Using early in the season information from the exhibition season which don't mean squat. Some of his trends did not apply to the game. Outdated not revelant. His write up to me seems like they were a copy any paste from someone. Some of the trends did not correlate with what was in the analysis. You mentioned COVID as an excuse give me a break. The sport where it had the most impact was the NBA.

 

[G-Man!]

That's's one hell of a rebuttal. All I can add to that is I have been around gamblers all my life and 98% of them go broke sooner or later. Streak's don't go on for ever if they did everyone would be a winner. Do you ever known anyone to go back to back 70% seasons?

First of all, 70% isnt normal. It exceeded the win percentage Vegas has. So that was rare. But anything at or over 58% is massive profit and to amplify that to 62% means you have a bankroll growth of over 400% NET.
For you to use 70% isnt realistic. Neither was Flav's. In addition - he didnt use every game (You mentioned above). He usually had 6 to 8 - so thats a stretch.
But I will say that if there are parameters that work - he could have it visible for nearly all of the games. It does happen when the matchups are all capped the same way, most of them could be a possible play on any given week.
They were that way for the bowls and its because action by the public was focused on every one at a high participation rate of betting on them all, because how they were spread out over a full month. Normally there is 50 games a week so the public doest focus on each one and bet them. The average bettor usually likes a hand-full.

I have been on both sides of the fence as a bettor/bookmaker in all my years as a BM 25+ I have never seen it. It's called coming back to the means. As for MF record over the years I can't give you exact numbers but I do recall average/losing at best. No 70% in there. Have you ever gone 70% back to back over a full season? I would say no.

Again 70% isnt a real example.

According to DOC you had losing CF and NFL season. Now you are having a winning baseball season. You are coming back to the means. By the end of the season you might be even. I am just playing the numbers.

Im not coming back to the means as you can it at all. Its doesnt exist to me. The 19 and 20 baseball season are the standard - not the 21 season.. This baseball season is the 3rd winning of 4 posted here. In fact the last 2 months of the baseball season are the best of all for capping accuracy. My choices will start to become limited in the next 2 months, so Im expecting that.
The advantages out there are all set by one source. Vegas sets the lines on games. Its their line. You have to decide what side you like. Thats how "conditioning the gamblers" comes into play for every line posted. (Ive explained that numerous times)

 

[G-Man!]

Going back to MF. The sheer number of games he bets almost everyone. A recipe for disaster. The more game's you bet the harder to win. The juice alone will kill his system.

The disaster you mention is only for chases. Gamblers do play extra games when losing to catch up on any given day. But- You can have a lot of games the come into play if the system shows it.

He says his systems are based on information yet some of is information is irrelevant. Using early in the season information from the exhibition season which don't mean squat.

Everyone knows exibition games are worthless. I agree.

Some of his trends did not apply to the game. Outdated not revelant.

He never said his plays were considered because of trends. In fact he said he only posted them as info for those who likes the enhancement of them, I do know that he always posted trends for many years and thats why he did it.

His write up to me seems like they were a copy any paste from someone. Some of the trends did not correlate with what was in the analysis.

I cant say. maybe so?

You mentioned COVID as an excuse give me a break. The sport where it had the most impact was the NBA.

Covid isnt an excuse. It is fact. None of the parameters were realistic anymore. It was crucial to losing in all sports. If this happens again this season the results will expose it again.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Based on your theory assumption no-one should have any long running success.?
If thats true then no one should ever gamble.
But I believe its NOT true, and that is not even possible. Because Vegas would have to fall into the same classification and lose as well. They dont.

That's not what I said. Everyone goes thru streaks whether they be long or short even you. Right now you are in a regression model to the upside, If you have forgotten you had 2 losing seasons in a row in sports. Remember that? Most gamblers do not stray to far from the means in short or long stretches.. Once they do you call that a deviation and I am sure you know the term. MF probably was about 3 standard deviations above his normalcy. You mentioned something about fading you that I would be down $7,000. How much would I be ahead if I fade you thru NFL and CB? Tell me that or did you forget that. That's what we call selective memory very convenient. It should be easy look at you BR! For the record, I have never faded you in any sport. I just think you don't know to much about the REAL WORLD. (NAIVE) I guess we could call you full of shit with theories and assumptions.

 

[G-Man!]

Based on your theory assumption no-one should have any long running success.?
If thats true then no one should ever gamble.
But I believe its NOT true, and that is not even possible. Because Vegas would have to fall into the same classification and lose as well. They dont.

THIS PORTION ABOVE WASMY QUOTE. FWIW. Somehow when you replied it didnt separate?

That's not what I said. Everyone goes thru streaks whether they be long or short even you. Right now you are in a regression model to the upside, If you have forgotten you had 2 losing seasons in a row in sports. Remember that? Most gamblers do not stray to far from the means in short or long stretches.

Its exactly why Covid was the factor.

. Once they do you call that a deviation and I am sure you know the term. MF probably was about 3 standard deviations above his normalcy.

How many deviation are you seeing to justify something that actually doesnt exist?

You mentioned something about fading you that I would be down $7,000.

Only because you claim you faded Flava "At the right time" unquote. I wasn't actually referring to me. I was just adding what stupid Doc and Lou are about.

How much would I be ahead if I fade you thru NFL and CB? Tell me that or did you forget that.

No I didnt forget that. If you were faded me then it was your choice. But how long is a fade going to hold up on anyone? Would those who faded me in the hole all of the run or was it a short fade? If so then they also would have delayed jumping in on the Bowls. In Doc's'Lou's case he just hates debating against info he doesn't possess and that turned into a few morons joining in the bashing party. It rattled him to the point of him and lou faded me and they were killed in the bowls for it.

That's what we call selective memory very convenient. It should be easy look at you BR!

I dont have selective memory. The record is there. What I have is validation to the outcomes and what caused it.

For the record, I have never faded you in any sport.

I wasn't referring to you as stated above.

I just think you don't know to much about the REAL WORLD. (NAIVE) I guess we could call you full of shit with theories and assumptions.

You say you have 25 years of being on both sides of the window. Taking bets and making them.
So Apparently that causes you to believe that your are in the real world while im not.

I've spent my time proving what conditions gamblers into losing and why Vegas does it with success.
Yay know what...It always amazes me why people criticize winners. It happens at Balnkets, CTG(which is all losers) and others sites. Here as well - because of guys like those mentioned.
Yet - when you say stupid things like Flava was "Lucky". You couldn't and didnt explain why he was unlucky. That alone - is just like everyone else - who is conditioned through years of never knowing more than what you know or don't know.

Let me say this. There is no such thing as luck. There.never was and never will be betting sports.
Sport are a totally different world and there is no luck calculated into the lines. Only gamblers habits and perceptions.
Then those habits are calculated with teams potentials that sway those lines against the public perception on that particular day against HISTORICAL betting history and bettors habits. Thats where the lines always favor Vegas against those masses.

You arent being attacked by me because I'm not betting your plays if you even ever post any.
But for you to say what you say about Flava is all based on luck - which tells me you cant find out why luck wins or luck loses?
He had something that he found very effective two years ago. Last year - as Ive said over and over - those parameters changed with Covid and he may find that-out and Fix it, if this season isnt affected by Covid again.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

One last thing you say there is no such thing as LUCK. What would you call this? Back in Dec I was betting NBA I lost 3 games 2 days in a total of 6 seconds. One-shot at the buzzer double 00 to bet the spread by a 1/2 point. The next game a shot with 2 seconds and change to bet me by 1/2. The final game 3 seconds and change to bet me by 1 point. What would you call that BAD LUCK or BAD HANDICAPPING? That's a true story no bullshit makeup. You have to have LUCK or you are not going to win. On my way to the casino to see if I can get LUCKY. Good LUCK on your selections tonight.

 

[G-Man!]

The Term luck is only a name given to something that is unpredictable.
There is no statistically or mathematical number to derive a calculation from luck. So yeah -you were unlucky for the coincidence, but it wasn't part of the handicapping of the point spread or line - thats all.
Capping is something that finds a side to bet on with a better chance to win the bet. If Both sides appear to be at the level of the expected outcome that was found during a capping process - then it is a way to win.
When Vegas has history that says If they post a spread on 2 teams at 7 points, they already know if more people will be on the team with lees chance of covering that number then they win.
If If happened to be played out accordingly - the mass public losses because the line was first posted that Vegas betting hsitriy shows thats how the public bets on teams that are in the same circumstance in this ga,me.

 

[G-Man!]

One last thing you say there is no such thing as LUCK. What would you call this? Back in Dec I was betting NBA I lost 3 games 2 days in a total of 6 seconds. One-shot at the buzzer double 00 to bet the spread by a 1/2 point. The next game a shot with 2 seconds and change to bet me by 1/2. The final game 3 seconds and change to bet me by 1 point. What would you call that BAD LUCK or BAD HANDICAPPING? That's a true story no bullshit makeup. You have to have LUCK or you are not going to win. On my way to the casino to see if I can get LUCKY. Good LUCK on your selections tonight.

been there done that. In Fact this year I had 6 baseball games all tied or wining in th withe inning on the same day and lost all 6 in the ninth inning or tied and lost in the 10th. First time ever in my life that happened.
20 years ago I had a 11 team parlay in baseball with one game unfinished and playing in the 7th inning. The other 10 already won. The Game was Arizona and Randy johnson was opiotching. AAZ was up 4-2 and they pulled Johnson after the inning ended. The reliever gives up 3 runs in the botton of the 8 to lose it. Thats parlay way back then would have paid me over 22K if it hit. Thats bad luck. Plus - johnson was pulled and could have thrown 20 more pitches at least. The manager needed to be shot for that move.

 

[Biz]

Entertaining discussion.

Question.....
Why are we using COVID as an excuse for losing??

 

[G-Man!]

Entertaining discussion.

Question.....
Why are we using COVID as an excuse for losing??

Covid changed all the capping parameters and it was likely why Flava was average this season in 2021 after rolling in 2020. It also had a profound impact on bases and football for me as well.
If I took all the factors that are used in capping a game and changed all the accuracy of them, it would easily stop that process from being consistent.
Players out, totally changed lineups in bases and disabled Starting Pitching and Relievers as well. It caused others to step in or being used in spots they were never good at in certain innings.
In Foots it was very impactful because there was massive capping stats that were distorted and they could never be corrected because it happened every week with little to no notice. Many teams lost games and there was no way to measure those outages from one game to the next.
Not sure why that could be in question unless you cap games not caring who is playing or not. It affected every portion of every game in one way or the other. Offense-defense or linemen etc.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

And what is that knowledge he taught you? To you even know his record before he went on his run? I doubt it. I remember looking at his post before his run and I found average at best. Maybe MF can chime in and tell us his record which would solve the mystery of his run. I don't ever remember him mentioning based. So what did you apply? I do remember him trying to apply it to basketball which was a disaster for him. So what could of we all learned from him. Maybe he was a fader by comparing his lines to Vegas. That would be something.

 

[G-Man!]

And what is that knowledge he taught you? To you even know his record before he went on his run? I doubt it.

This post about Flava is a bit dead?
But I'll answer anyway.
I know what he did for over 10 years. He didnt teach me anything or anyone else here from what I know. The question you asked doesnt apply?. I wasn't interested in his methods - other than he told me that he was informed by someone in California that shared a concept with 4 categories to contrast lines.

I remember looking at his post before his run and I found average at best.

I would agree. Mostly he was on a decent runs and offered informative write-ups on trends and other facts for at lest 10 years, as I said. Look at his following here during that year. He was getting viewers by the thousands daily.
The Guy did something at a rate that was never done before. Yet- those like you discounted him? Why?. All he did was make money for everyone.

You join the haters and cant admit he was successful and all of a sudden you act like you knew what day to fade him? Thats bull and unnecessary to bring your reaction as criticism towards him.
There are likely dozens of guys here you can say you fade? But when you say that now you only faded the guy here who had the best season of anyone here. Why? Because maybe your simply beimng influenced by the stupid, like Doc and Lou and thought it was fun to get on the hate wagon.
Most of your remarks against me starting the baseball season were Sarcastic remarks like - Quote:"Thank you for all you do for us."Unquote:' - while I was dumping a week of losing at 1700 00. Many commented after I was in the green, that you guys vanished and stopped bashing. For what ever evasion you now enter with feedback like youre waiting for failure to show up.
Im sure your position with me is like a "Vulture" waiting for me to drop so you can fly in and feed of my losses.
Then you can say I was just on a streak and claim that you are the genius for being right about my "Luck". Yet just like the others here, you post no plays. I think youre a just a pessimist and after 25 years experience as you say, on both sides of the betting world taking bets and making bets as a bookie and a bettor, you may feel the need to criticize other to satisfy you own losses to justify that you know there is no one winning because you didnt either way? If you want to bet my games that up to you. If youhavent thats up to you. I never started a post by saying Follow Me. But something has drawn you into my threads . And I think I know why.

Maybe MF can chime in and tell us his record which would solve the mystery of his run. I don't ever remember him mentioning based.

His record is posted. Go look it up. He never talked bases.

So what did you apply?

Apply? Me? Not sure what youre referring to, I think you missed something here that wouldn't create that question?

I do remember him trying to apply it to basketball which was a disaster for him. So what could of we all learned from him.

I never followed him in baskets.

Maybe he was a fader by comparing his lines to Vegas. That would be something.

He did compare lines . Most of all late movements. He said that upfront every week he posted.
If you followed him like you claim. Everything you asked here - is in his posts and you must have read them. While I know him from years of feedback - he wasn't followed by me for his picks. It was always well wishing or forwarding something he may wanted to know about info in general or just sharing . . No different than anyone else here following me or not.

 

[Biz]

Covid changed all the capping parameters and it was likely why Flava was average this season in 2021 after rolling in 2020. It also had a profound impact on bases and football for me as well.
If I took all the factors that are used in capping a game and changed all the accuracy of them, it would easily stop that process from being consistent.
Players out, totally changed lineups in bases and disabled Starting Pitching and Relievers as well. It caused others to step in or being used in spots they were never good at in certain innings.
In Foots it was very impactful because there was massive capping stats that were distorted and they could never be corrected because it happened every week with little to no notice. Many teams lost games and there was no way to measure those outages from one game to the next.
Not sure why that could be in question unless you cap games not caring who is playing or not. It affected every portion of every game in one way or the other. Offense-defense or linemen etc.

It all depends on what your handicapping methods are.

I posted a MLB thread for 2020 that crushed, and my NFL wins every year. The only thing COVID did was early NFL overs were hitting more than Unders.

Other than that COVID was a non factor for me

 

[G-Man!]

It all depends on what your handicapping methods are.

Thats for sure.

I posted a MLB thread for 2020 that crushed, and my NFL wins every year. The only thing COVID did was early NFL overs were hitting more than Unders.

It started in late 2020 but really played out in all of 2021.

Other than that COVID was a non factor for me

Yeah we were talking about Flava in "2021" not winning.
He also was the King in 2020 in football.
Bases for me were good as noted in the Records Forum 2019 and 2020.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

This thread was about gambler's regression. MF name was brought up because he fit perfectly. Over achieved his average for one year and under under achieved the following. Don't worry I the BONE COLLECTOR S are not here yet. Only if you over achieved. The vultures are only circling. Not enough data on you. Tell us about your record. One other thing. Are you in a government job? Just by the way you answer and twist and deflect it's amazing. If not you should be.