GALLUP SHOCK: 49% OBAMA, 47% MCCAIN with LIKELY VOTERS

[jammanxc]

drudgereport is reporting that there is a Gallup Shock: 49 Obama, 47% with Likely Voters

<tt>GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error

</tt>http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx

 

[Mistermj]

drudgereport is reporting that there is a Gallup Shock: 49 Obama, 47% with Likely Voters

<TT>GALLUP's 'traditional' likely voter model shows Obama with a two-point advantage over McCain on Thursday, 49% to 47%, this is within poll's margin of error

</TT>http://www.gallup.com/poll/111124/Gallup-Daily-Likely-Voters-Traditional.aspx

Today the libtards changed their tune.

Now Gallup isn't reliable. :lol:

One thing is for sure...NOBODY knows where this race is.

 

[jammanxc]

+750 on McCain looks good right now..

 

[3peet]

well..i'm glad you guys have ONE poll to keep your hopes up.
btw...and this is an honest question. Does that poll include newly registered voters?

 

[RollTide+]

October 14th Gallup poll of likely voters.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

 

[primetime21+]

+750 on McCain looks good right now..

Yeah for those that don't understand polling data and ignore the 10 other polls which show Obama up by 5-10 points. This is what is called cherry picking. and its double cherry picking because there are 3 gallup polls, and the other two gallup polls show Obama's lead at 6.


http://www.gallup.com/poll/111211/Gallup-Daily-Obama-49-McCain-43.aspx

 

[primetime21+]

This is all the polling data released yesterday:

Thursday, October 16<table style="width: 598px;" class="sortable" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="0" width="598"><thead><tr class="alt"><th class="clickable" style="width: 150px;">Race (Click to Sort)</th><th class="sorttable_nosort" style="width: 160px;">Poll</th><th class="sorttable_nosort" style="width: 185px;">Results</th><th class="sorttable_nosort" style="width: 115px;">Spread</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr class=""><td>Ohio</td><td>Rasmussen</td><td>Obama 49, McCain 49</td><td>Tie</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>New York</td><td>Rasmussen</td><td>Obama 57, McCain 37</td><td>Obama +20</td></tr><tr class=""><td>Oregon</td><td>Rasmussen</td><td>Obama 54, McCain 41</td><td>Obama +13</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>Connecticut</td><td>Rasmussen</td><td>Obama 56, McCain 39</td><td>Obama +17</td></tr><tr class=""><td>National</td><td>Rasmussen Tracking</td><td>Obama 50, McCain 46</td><td>Obama +4</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>National</td><td>Hotline/FD Tracking</td><td>Obama 49, McCain 41</td><td>Obama +8</td></tr><tr class=""><td>National</td><td>Gallup Tracking (Traditional)*</td><td>Obama 49, McCain 47</td><td>Obama +2</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>National</td><td>Gallup Tracking (Expanded)*</td><td>Obama 51, McCain 45</td><td>Obama +6</td></tr><tr class=""><td>Massachusetts</td><td>SurveyUSA</td><td>Obama 59, McCain 35</td><td>Obama +24</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>National</td><td>IBD/TIPP Tracking</td><td>Obama 45, McCain 42</td><td>Obama +3</td></tr><tr class=""><td>Pennsylvania</td><td>Morning Call Tracking</td><td>Obama 53, McCain 37</td><td>Obama +16</td></tr><tr class="alt"><td>Virginia</td><td>CNU Virginia Poll</td><td>Obama 53, McCain 47</td><td>Obama +6</td></tr><tr class=""><td>National</td><td>GW/Battleground Tracking</td><td>Obama 50, McCain 44</td><td>Obama +6</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[D2bets]

The national polls never much mattered. Look at the states. How is McCain going to win?

 

[cussin'it]

McCain HAS to win OH, VA, and FL to even have a sniff.

Any one of those 3 go blue, he's done.

Think it'll be Florida this time.

 

[D2bets]

McCain HAS to win OH, VA, and FL to even have a sniff.

Any one of those 3 go blue, he's done.

Think it'll be Florida this time.

I think it'll be all 3 and then some.

Virginia is trading well into the mid-80's at Intrade. How is McCain going to win even w/o VA?

IF books had 2-way lines on each state, a great play on McCain would be to parlay FL/OH/VA/NC/IN and a bunch of others. Only way he can win is to run that table anyway and if you parlay those together it's probably like 200-1. Currently at Intrade roughly:
+300 FL
+550 VA
+300 OH
that's over 100-1 parlayed.

 

[cussin'it]

McCain HAS to win OH, VA, and FL to even have a sniff.

Any one of those 3 go blue, he's done.

Think it'll be Florida this time.

Right. We'll know by 6 pm CST. Virginia will be the one clinch it.

Then you can rack up CO and NM. 300 at least.

 

[gtc08]

national polls are irrelevant now. just watch the states i listed in the other thread. no way any of the blue states are going to turn. mccain had his best shot with michigan and gave it up.

 

[Risk44]

Hope it stays close to keep those potsmoking liberals motivated to vote..