G.O.W. #2 9/17 Oregon St./Louisville

[Conan]

Oregon State plays very well in big games. The've kicked butt in recent bowl games vs. New Mexico and last year vs. Notre Dame. Of course you also remember their near miss last year vs. LSU where their kicker blew 3 PAT's (to be fair, LSU's kicker also shanked a couple FG's) but they were right there in the game because that's what they do. As a matter of fact, their only loss in the last 9 games was when USC beat them (by only 8 points) last year. They just snapped Boise St.'s 15-game winning streak last week.

They are looking pretty good this year. Matt Moore their transplanted QB is tossing 70% completions, 300+ ypg, one pick and a modest 5 TD passes in 2 games giving him a 160 rating. Their offense has been clicking along averaging 420 ypg. Defensively they are looking good too. Their rushing defense is typically in the top 20 and it looks like they are on track with another good year so far allowing 3.5 ypr over 2 games.

But the one thing about this team one wouldn't necessarily figure is that they are going to Louisville with every intention of beating them. They thrive on being the big dog, especially on national TV. If they play true to form as they have been for some time, they will be in this game at the end.

So with that being said, 14 points is starting to look a bit rich isn't it?

 

[ToujoursPret]

Uh, Conan, LW Ore St EXTENDED Boise's 2 game losing streak to 3.

 

[Conan]

:toothless

Sorry that's right Toujours, my bad... Louisville got them in the bowl and Georgia got them this year. OK then so they snapped Boise's winning streak for the third time.

 

[Conan]

The important thing is that they are on a roll and like playing in these big games. They are no pushover. You won't find them folding up in any big game like this one.

 

[Heatwave]

Conan,

Hope all is well out there.

I was not at all impressed by Louisville in their opener against Kentucky. I think the Beavers will be able to move the ball well through the air. Not playing this game, as it (just like Oregon) just missed my card, but I would not be in the least bit surprised to see Oregon State win this one outright.


HW

 

[THECLOSER]

I like the dog in this spot

 

[3peet]

Oregon St +400 @ WSEX:monsters-

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Conan, here's what concerns me about this game...btw, I had OSU as a lean and it was in about my top 11, but I'm only playing seven games this week...9 AM PST time start concerns me...OSU's lack of a running game concerns me, plus not having TE Newton...also, going against Petrino at home is pretty scary...Matt Moore is looking great, however, and he should keep them hanging around...just can't bring myself to play this one...

 

[PokerKingJim]

14 looks like about 6 too many in this matchup. Lousiville lines will always be inflated against good teams because of their offensive totals against the defne challenged CUSA the past few years.

 

[Conan]

Pags that's a good point about their running game being sub-par, however their offense is a West Coast type of their own brewing and they seem to use the safety-valve, quick post and slot-back out over the middle like running plays. Technically, it's just about how the ball is delivered to the rusher, via a short high percentage pass that catches defenses in loose coverage wherever it happens to be. It creates lopsided statistics but it seems pretty effective.

As far as Newton goes, yeah sure it would be nice to see them at full strength but Mike Hass cannot be defensed with single coverage and is quite an amazing thing to watch get open even in double coverages. Hence 333 reception yards in just 2 games. They seem to be making due with what they got.

I think the key to this game will be how well OSU can protect Moore and give him time to move the offense downfield.

 

[CAV]

:monsters- I was not impressed with Louisville against Kentucky (who was getting beat by Idaho ST late in the third quarter last week)

 

[Arodd]

I think I'll be on OSU this game, waiting to see if the line fluctuates before saturday, but i don't see Lousville dominating this game, or in other words, winning by more than 2 touchdowns.
Although now that i've said this, watch Brohm throw for 500 yards and 5 TDs....

 

[Heatwave]

Kentucky has no running game either, and managed to put 278 yards passing on only 27 attempts. I just think Louisville is vulnerable to offensive teams that move it through the air, which Oregon State I believe qualifies as.


HW

 

[jwunderdog]

Lville lost a lot in the secondary and although the QB is experienced he was not the one who lead them last year. I like your play Conan, although small.GL

 

[AlwaysKeen]

Conan, agreed...GL bro...

 

[Conan]

Matt Moore or Matt Lienart... what's the difference?

 

[Conan]

Pags that's a good point about their running game being sub-par, however their offense is a West Coast type of their own brewing and they seem to use the safety-valve, quick post and slot-back out over the middle like running plays. Technically, it's just about how the ball is delivered to the rusher, via a short high percentage pass that catches defenses in loose coverage wherever it happens to be. It creates lopsided statistics but it seems pretty effective.

As far as Newton goes, yeah sure it would be nice to see them at full strength but Mike Hass cannot be defensed with single coverage and is quite an amazing thing to watch get open even in double coverages. Hence 333 reception yards in just 2 games. They seem to be making due with what they got.

I think the key to this game will be how well OSU can protect Moore and give him time to move the offense downfield.

(and turnovers)
.

 

[UoweDucks]

Tough game to watch for Beaver backers...

Best of luck next week Conan. If OSU doesn't get that running game going it is going to be a long year.

 

[WCBias]

They had the running game going. As soon as LV scored 14 points MR abandoned it.