Bowls Season to date. 27-15 ATS
ML's 4-6.
Georgia -12.5 over TCU.
A year ago this game was all about the SEC.
Georgia and Alabama faced off. Both teams last year had impressive defenses.
Current Betting lines show that the percentages are massively on TCU.
When this line opened, the Original % showed they were on TCU at 93% at The RX Odds page.
Other sources now have TCU at 78%. Now the RX shows 79%.
Thats two different sites with nearly exact percentages as of Wednesday Jan 4th.
My belief is that the betting percentages will never even out. Time will tell.
TCU stunned Michigan.
But more important - Georgia played against the best team and should have lost to OSU. A Missed OSU FG decided that win for Georgia.
The main deal with TCU - is that hey keep beating better teams. Games have gone down to the last play or two.
Their last 3 games as a under dog/pk have all been SU wins!
Georgia has been Georgia all year. They do have some problems covering point spreads. They are 1-3 last 4 ATS.
In perspective, they're facing the hottest team right now who is surprising many.
My concern now is their recent play against KY. Georgia/KY was low a scoring 16-6 win.
The last time Georgia did that was against Clemson, way back in 2021 with a 10-3 win over Clemson.
TCU had a similar game against Texas this year with a 17-10 win.
Texas had been a solid defensive team all year.
So was KY vs Georgia.
I have to put that into perspective for Georgia by believing they were looking past KY and just assumed they would win easily.
TCU on the other hand was excited about playing against Texas and thought they could make an impact to rising in the ratings. They did just that,
For those who followed my plays last year in the bowls, I wrote about everyone being on Alabama on the National Championship game and that Georgia would win and cover that game.
I saw that the Public was all too impressed with the earlier win when Alabama beat Georgia in the conference playoff game.
Then afterwards, Alabama embarrassed Cincinnati and Georgia beat Michigan easily as well 34-11. (*) <<<
The main reason for Alabama being bet on by the masses last year, was because Georgia lost to them in the Playoff Conference game.
The public often fades away from the team that didn't Cover in the previous game - like we had last week with Georgia NOT covering vs Ohio State.
The spread for this game is Georgia -12.5 which far larger and would easily chase the masses to bet on TCU. Especially after TCU upset Michigan. Georgia will cover IMO.
The betting percentages validate that, just like last year when the masses bet on Alabama.
This year Georgia didn't face Alabama for the Conference Playoff this year - They faced LSU and smashed them badly by putting up 50 points.
So the obvious question is why is the line so large for this game with TCU? They (Vegas) could have made it much lower to draw even action? At least thats what the conditioned public believes.
They believe that Vegas post lines to draw even action. I Don't!
Well, it didn't draw even action last year and Georgia rolled over Alabama all the while that Alabama was bet on in the masses.
We have the same scenario for this Game with TCU. Only bigger.
The public likely wont bet much on the Large ML and since the high percentages are already on the dog getting points, how will Vegas get "even action"?
They wont and aren't trying to.
If So, the line would drop to balance the bets, if they were unsure of who will cover.
As of today - now Jan 5th - the line is holding firm at -12.5 and the percentages are still at 75% on TCU.
My guess is that if they wanted to move the line downs to 10 or less it still wouldn't balance the bets. I believe that the Public is locked in on TCU.
So what we have here, is the line could likely go down to 11.5 or 11 hours before KO. Therefor keeping theDouble-Digit spread available, so the public stays on TCU, while all the time knowing that it will do just what the Bama line did last year by dropping a point late and getting the public to BELIEVE that Bama was the right bet.
For TCU. at this time to be facing Georgia, I think that the Public thinks that the Georgia defense has slumped.
What it really shows to me, is that Michigan wasn't as good as a defensive team as their record showed and the game against OSU was much closer than the final score indicated when they beat OSU in the season final. That was their Super Bowl - and not the game with TCU.
The Buckeyes rolled up 500 yard against Michigan but they had 2 turnovers to add to the loss.
Coach Dykes is well respected and will bring a great game plan for this one. But when it comes down to coaching I have to ask...Is Dykes' plan any better than what Nick Saban could bring? Even if he could, does he have the player depth that Alabama maintains every year?
TCU has Duggan at QB and he's great, but if Georgia takes away the run game TCU is in trouble IMO.
Knowing that Georgia has the best run defense by far of all the bowlers and that if Georgia is doing that to TCU - it will have a drastic effect to the TCU offense.
I also dont think that TCU would have beat OSU last week. I think the win over Michigan was two fold. One - Michigan had the biggest game with OSU the week before and Harbaugh is no where near a good coach at making halftime changes to overcome high scoring offenses.
Finally (Remember that Little Red (*) Asterisk - I posted a few paragraphs up) > if you look at what Georgia (-7) gave Michigan last year and what Michigan(-7.5) gave TCU this year - this line is actually a little low. mainly because Michigan , and Georgia and also Ohio State, are all nearly exactly who they were a year ago. Those points are what validates the spread on this game with TCU.
They aslo show me that Georgia will do the same again to TCU. Im NOT betting against the best defense in the Game. 15 pts average vs Bowlers until they faced OSU last week.
Finally. When was the last time that a team - which didn't make it to a bowl game the year before - ever come in to a Championship Game and win or Cover against a returning Champion?
Im all over Georgia - and this game could be over early with that Georgia defense shutting down TCU. Maybe under 63.5 also.
My Play. Georgia -12.5
GL .
ML's 4-6.
Georgia -12.5 over TCU.
A year ago this game was all about the SEC.
Georgia and Alabama faced off. Both teams last year had impressive defenses.
Current Betting lines show that the percentages are massively on TCU.
When this line opened, the Original % showed they were on TCU at 93% at The RX Odds page.
Other sources now have TCU at 78%. Now the RX shows 79%.
Thats two different sites with nearly exact percentages as of Wednesday Jan 4th.
My belief is that the betting percentages will never even out. Time will tell.
TCU stunned Michigan.
But more important - Georgia played against the best team and should have lost to OSU. A Missed OSU FG decided that win for Georgia.
The main deal with TCU - is that hey keep beating better teams. Games have gone down to the last play or two.
Their last 3 games as a under dog/pk have all been SU wins!
Georgia has been Georgia all year. They do have some problems covering point spreads. They are 1-3 last 4 ATS.
In perspective, they're facing the hottest team right now who is surprising many.
My concern now is their recent play against KY. Georgia/KY was low a scoring 16-6 win.
The last time Georgia did that was against Clemson, way back in 2021 with a 10-3 win over Clemson.
TCU had a similar game against Texas this year with a 17-10 win.
Texas had been a solid defensive team all year.
So was KY vs Georgia.
I have to put that into perspective for Georgia by believing they were looking past KY and just assumed they would win easily.
TCU on the other hand was excited about playing against Texas and thought they could make an impact to rising in the ratings. They did just that,
For those who followed my plays last year in the bowls, I wrote about everyone being on Alabama on the National Championship game and that Georgia would win and cover that game.
I saw that the Public was all too impressed with the earlier win when Alabama beat Georgia in the conference playoff game.
Then afterwards, Alabama embarrassed Cincinnati and Georgia beat Michigan easily as well 34-11. (*) <<<
The main reason for Alabama being bet on by the masses last year, was because Georgia lost to them in the Playoff Conference game.
The public often fades away from the team that didn't Cover in the previous game - like we had last week with Georgia NOT covering vs Ohio State.
The spread for this game is Georgia -12.5 which far larger and would easily chase the masses to bet on TCU. Especially after TCU upset Michigan. Georgia will cover IMO.
The betting percentages validate that, just like last year when the masses bet on Alabama.
This year Georgia didn't face Alabama for the Conference Playoff this year - They faced LSU and smashed them badly by putting up 50 points.
So the obvious question is why is the line so large for this game with TCU? They (Vegas) could have made it much lower to draw even action? At least thats what the conditioned public believes.
They believe that Vegas post lines to draw even action. I Don't!
Well, it didn't draw even action last year and Georgia rolled over Alabama all the while that Alabama was bet on in the masses.
We have the same scenario for this Game with TCU. Only bigger.
The public likely wont bet much on the Large ML and since the high percentages are already on the dog getting points, how will Vegas get "even action"?
They wont and aren't trying to.
If So, the line would drop to balance the bets, if they were unsure of who will cover.
As of today - now Jan 5th - the line is holding firm at -12.5 and the percentages are still at 75% on TCU.
My guess is that if they wanted to move the line downs to 10 or less it still wouldn't balance the bets. I believe that the Public is locked in on TCU.
So what we have here, is the line could likely go down to 11.5 or 11 hours before KO. Therefor keeping theDouble-Digit spread available, so the public stays on TCU, while all the time knowing that it will do just what the Bama line did last year by dropping a point late and getting the public to BELIEVE that Bama was the right bet.
For TCU. at this time to be facing Georgia, I think that the Public thinks that the Georgia defense has slumped.
What it really shows to me, is that Michigan wasn't as good as a defensive team as their record showed and the game against OSU was much closer than the final score indicated when they beat OSU in the season final. That was their Super Bowl - and not the game with TCU.
The Buckeyes rolled up 500 yard against Michigan but they had 2 turnovers to add to the loss.
Coach Dykes is well respected and will bring a great game plan for this one. But when it comes down to coaching I have to ask...Is Dykes' plan any better than what Nick Saban could bring? Even if he could, does he have the player depth that Alabama maintains every year?
TCU has Duggan at QB and he's great, but if Georgia takes away the run game TCU is in trouble IMO.
Knowing that Georgia has the best run defense by far of all the bowlers and that if Georgia is doing that to TCU - it will have a drastic effect to the TCU offense.
I also dont think that TCU would have beat OSU last week. I think the win over Michigan was two fold. One - Michigan had the biggest game with OSU the week before and Harbaugh is no where near a good coach at making halftime changes to overcome high scoring offenses.
Finally (Remember that Little Red (*) Asterisk - I posted a few paragraphs up) > if you look at what Georgia (-7) gave Michigan last year and what Michigan(-7.5) gave TCU this year - this line is actually a little low. mainly because Michigan , and Georgia and also Ohio State, are all nearly exactly who they were a year ago. Those points are what validates the spread on this game with TCU.
They aslo show me that Georgia will do the same again to TCU. Im NOT betting against the best defense in the Game. 15 pts average vs Bowlers until they faced OSU last week.
Finally. When was the last time that a team - which didn't make it to a bowl game the year before - ever come in to a Championship Game and win or Cover against a returning Champion?
Im all over Georgia - and this game could be over early with that Georgia defense shutting down TCU. Maybe under 63.5 also.
My Play. Georgia -12.5
GL .
Last edited:
