G-Man's MLB Playoffs.

[G-Man!]

Sunday Oct 19th
Seattle +105. 3 units.
Small play because a healthy Springer would make the play on Toronto instead - if he was healthy. I Cant trust an injured top player to be 100% tonight

Not happy with rookie starter for Jays tonight. This is a rematch with Gilbert and Yesavage.
Also not sure if Springer can play? His bat is crucial.
The right knee was smashed but xrays are negative. Problem is - he pivots off the back leg when hitting. If he's out its a bad thing.

Only advantage for Toronto is that Seattle is only hitting .190 last five games vs right handers during playoffs.

Jays Mgr left the rookie in too long in last start when the game was tied 3-3.
Also as I noted (Jays Pen is weak) the next four relivers that came in all gave up earned runs!
Im also skeptic because the Jays almost folded in the last moth barely winning the division over the Yankees.. They collapsed much like Detroit.

I would be much more in favor of Toronto if They had Bieber or Gausman pitching.

 

[InMyBrothersName]

Looks like Springer is a go… healthy? Not sure on that as the noise I heard when the ball hit his knee cap was… well, scary. Luck bro

 

[G-Man!]

Looks like Springer is a go… healthy? Not sure on that as the noise I heard when the ball hit his knee cap was… well, scary. Luck bro

Yes. No hits but he did DH. he probaly wasnt 100%. Not sure?
More important was that Yesavage was back on his game.
I kept it small .
Tomorrow is a new day!
.

 

[G-Man!]

GAME SEVEN -AL Pennant

Toronto -120 Over Seattle. 10 units.
Toronto 1H.-130) 10 units

 

[InMyBrothersName]

Hammered this this morning as well! Ms are all out of sorts and Kirby should get lit up. Hopefully Beiber has a repeat of his last performance and can go 6+ innings! Ms could use every arm in their pen!
B Jays has an all hands on deck pen as well with Gausman being first up for relief!

 

[G-Man!]

I must admiit impulling for Toronto because four players all wore Chief Wahoo hats at one time. ?Fuck the Guardians. and the Woke-ass Dolans who own them!
Bieber, Gimeneż, Straw and Clement - were all INDIANS!

The baseball franschise owners are just as stipd as the Browns . Let stars go and they prosper somewhere else.
Baker was the biggest disaster in Cleveland history after Kozar being benched by Belichick.

 

[obsfgd]

Toronto/ La series!!! Let’s get it G man !!

 

[XENO]

G man crystal ball 1 run we both win

 

[G-Man!]

G man crystal ball 1 run we both win

Somebody up there likes us! Congrats on the RL win.
More fun to come!

 

[G-Man!]

Current Playoffs 20-11. +9,530.00 (Wild Card & Division)

Current AL-NL Pennant finals.
Final Pennants 7-4 +2223.00
W+5765.00
L-3542.00

Current Playoffs 20-11. +9,530.00 (Wild Card & Division)
Final Pennants 7-4. +2223.00
Combined. 27-15. +11,753.00

WORLD SERIES PENDING NEXT!

 

[1sob]

Great playoffs run G Man
looking forward to your World Series bets

 

[LonghornMM]

G-Man, the Dodgers are -245 to win the WS. What is your take on laying the juice and betting the Dodgers to win the WS?

 

[G-Man!]

G-Man, the Dodgers are -245 to win the WS. What is your take on laying the juice and betting the Dodgers to win the WS?

There is alot to recognize for the "Series Price". Its all priced for the first two starters for each team.
Games 1&2 have the same value and impact as games 6&7. Not many of the public thinks that way.
As of this starter group -were talking that Snell and Yamamoto will have the same impact in 1&2 as games 6&7.

Last year the Dodgers were -130 to win the WS.
I bet i (25 units) and won because the juice was less or the same than the line on each of the first two games.
At -245 i wouldn't risk the dollars, when I can basically spilt it and bet it on two games.
-245 is pushing big - but for the right reason. The pitching matchup for the first two games are completely different from last year.

Snell is a verteran with a solid history. Yamomoto also is dominating. Yesavage is a rookie with 6-7 starts and Gausman historically is NOT better than who the Dodgers can start in game two.

I wouldn't bet the series @-245 because you can get the same chance to win the first two games for far less money and get the results that are really costing you too much to bet it as a SERIES play.
If you go up 2-0 , its likely that the Dodgers won't lose 4 of the last 5 games. But if they go 1-1. its a different story.
For instance - Snell faced Torontio in August and struck out 10 IN 5 INNINGS. So he should be favored-148) regardlesss of who starts for Toronto.

The Dodgers have Snell in game one and Yamamoto in games two (so far).
Contrast that with likely Yesavage, with possibly Gausman gm 2..

The series line is commomly based on the first two or 3 starters.
Odds are - game one or game two starters can win both of their starts.

Last year -with the Yankee/Dodgers series, NY got the home field advantage and Cole and Rodon. That also kept the price low becuae Gamblers perceive there is a home field advantage, pretty much in all sports.
But in reality - for big games like this - it really doesnt have much to do with winning.. Its all on the pitchers and is magnified because of their season performances.

Also, last year the Yankees had Cole as a starter vs Flaherty, in game one - and that was justified because Cole historically was dominating

So that game #1 price last year (-131)to be low - actually .lowered the series price to -130.. It also kept most of the public on the HOME team NYY?? What happened? Dodgers won 6-3.. There was no doubt who was starting for game one.

Toronto, as of right now, is likley going to start Yesavage. He is their only starter with 4 days rest. If they use Scherzer then they're giving up a lot because its likley they will go to the pen early.
The Dodgers have all the rested pitchers. Toronto does not.

Risking -145 on Snell for game 1. is safe, and if if he gets beat, its easy to win it back in game two with Yamamoto.
But I wont want -245 laying there after game one if it fails.
If they can come back, I can get better numbers after that game.
At 1000.00 per game I can get 2 bets instead of that price on the series. Best scenario is - if win 2 for 2K or worst case , I lose the Series @2,450.00 along with losing the flat bets.

If I go 1and 1. im out small money after two games. And again I will get better odds if I even choose to place a series bet then.

Last year, betting the Dodgers "Series" play was like betting one xtra game.
This year with he Dodgers 'Series' is like betting two games amd much hader to get back.
Thanks for the feedback.

Thats my take. BOL on what you do.
G-

NOTE; Toronto is batting .268 ve left handers. But never scored on Snell in his last two starts against them.
In total. Snell gave up only 1 run in three startts against the Jays in 15 innings with 17 strikeouts and only 9 hits.

If Yesavage starts tomorrow, my Bet is Dodgers -148 for 10 units. If another starter is named, I will decide to stay or stay away or play a first five bet.

 

[LonghornMM]

Great write up and explanation. Thank you, G-Man!

 

[G-Man!]

Scherzer hasn't pitched since Oct 16.
He is the freshest starter they have as of now.
Strange how they are holding out who is starting?

 

[G-Man!]

Game One. World Series!

Dodgers -148. 10 units
Yesavage is verified as the starter for game #1.
I Don't see him lasting over 5 innings.
Ohtani hits righties well.
Snell can go 6 or more.
Snell vs Toronto had three starts allowing 1 run in 15 innings. Thats an era of under 1.00.
He also strck out 10 batters vs Toronto in 5 innings in his last start in August.
His recent PIP was only 12.9 vs Milwaukee which is outstanding!

 

[1sob]

I do lean on LAD with the pitching and lineup vs TO
Only thing that worries me is LAD hasn't seen Savage.
If Savage is on with his splitter he's one tough customer.
I will play NRFI hopefully Ohtani doesn't take Savage deep.

Great record in playoffs
Good luck G Man in the WS

 

[G-Man!]

I do lean on LAD with the pitching and lineup vs TO
Only thing that worries me is LAD hasn't seen Savage.
If Savage is on with his splitter he's one tough customer.
I will play NRFI hopefully Ohtani doesn't take Savage deep.

Great record in playoffs
Good luck G Man in the WS

He had 6 starts. The only teams that didnt score on him was NYY and KC,
The other 4 teams did. And all of them only faced him for the first time.
If you remove the two games vs NY and KC his era is high. So is his WHIP.
I agree his splitter is excellent.

At this stage of the game - he is facing the best of all the team's he's faced.
His two playoff starts vs Seattle, he gave up 10 hits and 7 runs in 9.2 innings.
Thats an era of over 6.80.
Even if you add in the two shutouts his era is still 5.00 in 6 starts.

Facing Snell puts Yesavage in a spot where he has to give up less than 3 runs IMO.
GL on 1st inning play.
Appreciate the feedback..

 

[G-Man!]

G-Man, the Dodgers are -245 to win the WS. What is your take on laying the juice and betting the Dodgers to win the WS?

There is alot to recognize for the "Series Price". Its all priced for the first two starters for each team.
Games 1&2 have the same value and impact as games 6&7. Not many of the public thinks that way.
As of this starter group -were talking that Snell and Yamamoto will have the same impact in 1&2 as games 6&7.

Last year the Dodgers were -130 to win the WS.
I bet i (25 units) and won because the juice was less or the same than the line on each of the first two games.
At -245 i wouldn't risk the dollars, when I can basically spilt it and bet it on two games.
-245 is pushing big - but for the right reason. The pitching matchup for the first two games are completely different from last year.

Snell is a verteran with a solid history. Yamomoto also is dominating. Yesavage is a rookie with 6-7 starts and Gausman historically is NOT better than who the Dodgers can start in game two.

I wouldn't bet the series @-245 because you can get the same chance to win the first two games for far less money and get the results that are really costing you too much to bet it as a SERIES play.
If you go up 2-0 , its likely that the Dodgers won't lose 4 of the last 5 games. But if they go 1-1. its a different story.
For instance - Snell faced Torontio in August and struck out 10 IN 5 INNINGS. So he should be favored-148) regardlesss of who starts for Toronto.

The Dodgers have Snell in game one and Yamamoto in games two (so far).
Contrast that with likely Yesavage, with possibly Gausman gm 2..

The series line is commomly based on the first two or 3 starters.
Odds are - game one or game two starters can win both of their starts.

Last year -with the Yankee/Dodgers series, NY got the home field advantage and Cole and Rodon. That also kept the price low becuae Gamblers perceive there is a home field advantage, pretty much in all sports.
But in reality - for big games like this - it really doesnt have much to do with winning.. Its all on the pitchers and is magnified because of their season performances.

Also, last year the Yankees had Cole as a starter vs Flaherty, in game one - and that was justified because Cole historically was dominating

So that game #1 price last year (-131)to be low - actually .lowered the series price to -130.. It also kept most of the public on the HOME team NYY?? What happened? Dodgers won 6-3.. There was no doubt who was starting for game one.

Toronto, as of right now, is likley going to start Yesavage. He is their only starter with 4 days rest. If they use Scherzer then they're giving up a lot because its likley they will go to the pen early.
The Dodgers have all the rested pitchers. Toronto does not.

Risking -145 on Snell for game 1. is safe, and if if he gets beat, its easy to win it back in game two with Yamamoto.
But I wont want -245 laying there after game one if it fails.
If they can come back, I can get better numbers after that game.
At 1000.00 per game I can get 2 bets instead of that price on the series. Best scenario is - if win 2 for 2K or worst case , I lose the Series @2,450.00 along with losing the flat bets.

If I go 1and 1. im out small money after two games. And again I will get better odds if I even choose to place a series bet then.

Last year, betting the Dodgers "Series" play was like betting one xtra game.
This year with he Dodgers 'Series' is like betting two games amd much hader to get back.
Thanks for the feedback.

Thats my take. BOL on what you do.
G-

NOTE; Toronto is batting .268 ve left handers. But never scored on Snell in his last two starts against them.
In total. Snell gave up only 1 run in three startts against the Jays in 15 innings with 17 strikeouts and only 9 hits.

If Yesavage starts tomorrow, my Bet is Dodgers -148 for 10 units. If another starter is named, I will decide to stay or stay away or play a first five bet.

 

[G-Man!]

Series Bet Opinion Above ^^^
Reposted^^
Game One. World Series!

Dodgers -148. 10 units
Yesavage is verified as the starter for game #1.
I Don't see him lasting over 5 innings.
Ohtani hits righties well.
Snell can go 6 or more.
Snell vs Toronto had three starts allowing 1 run in 15 innings. Thats an era of under 1.00.
He also strck out 10 batters vs Toronto in 5 innings in his last start in August.
His recent PIP was only 12.9 vs Milwaukee which is outstanding!