*****G-Man's EARLY play. Nebraska vs Colorado*****

[G-Man!]

Nebraska +3.5 over Colorado. 4 units
Get it now with that number

What is impressive is that Neon Deion pulled 58 transfers and turned them into a winner for game one.
Dont take that lightly.
He just infused a massive dose of confidence to all of those players and he has had a dramatic influence on them now. Something that they likely never experience in their entire life playing for anyone else.

The only caution now is its very unlikely they will play at that level again in regards to passing yards. They had 510 yds passing. They also had poor rushing numbers with only 55 yds.

Nebraska is a far tougher team to beat with 16 returning starters.
Last week they were a 7.5 dog to Minnesota and lost in a 13-10 game.

The question now is What team is better. Minnesota or Colorado?

Last year Minnesota was a huge plus points team. They acored 28 and allowed only 14. Most of that team returned with 15 starters and the QB.
Colorado doesnt possess the kind of defense that Minnesota has.

The CornHuskers are befinatelty the play with that number IMO.

 

[crownreserve]

G-man

Would like to hear your thoughts on N Damn this week.. Thought of betting them on ML huge can't see them losing good defense and good offense.

Your thoughts??

 

[BoutMyMoney]

I'll meet you at the cashier.

Easiest bet all season.

 

[Loves2kickass]

I'll meet you at the cashier.

Easiest bet all season.

? its week 2.

 

[indiana]

G/man....BOL with your action this weekend buddy....indy

 

[boxgames]

I'll meet you at the cashier.

Easiest bet all season.

I'd not say that with Matt Rhule on the sideline of the team I back

Definitely backing the Huskers too. Fading a big public bet is usually a good idea.

 

[boxgames]

BOL G-Man!

 

[BigLouReturns]

? its week 2.

3.5 points? Where did he get that number?

 

[exploited17]

3.5 points? Where did he get that number?

Number has been available

 

[G-Man!]

G-man

Would like to hear your thoughts on N Damn this week.. Thought of betting them on ML huge can't see them losing good defense and good offense.

Your thoughts??

ND hasn't played a competitive team in 2 games. Navy was a disaster with a new head coaching debut. Knowing they returned 18 starters for Navy was a shocker to get beat like that. They looked completely un-prepared for the opener.

Looking back at common opponents, they both played Clemson.
ND was home getting 4 points.
NC State was AT Clemson getting 7 points.
Clemson lost at ND badly.
NC State was respectable in a 30-20 loss in Clemson.

Considering that NC State was solid on defense LY in the last 4 games including the bowl game, - they held their last 4 opponents to under 351 yds of total offense.
They only return 5 starters on defense which hurts. But they also lost their starting QB who transferred. NC only averaged 24pts/gm with him LY.

They did get a potentially solid replacement by transfer of Armstrong from Virginia. He averaged 32 pts per game when he was a starter, with a Virginia team that had no defense.

ND is not a solid road team. They allowed over 32 points per game avg the last 4 road tilts.
Knowing that ND looks impressive in the first 2 games by allowing only 3 points to each opponent, I dont believe they are ever as good as those numbers.
In addition, to validate the poor competition level ND faced this year, the 2 games were lined at 21 and 49 points.
It could be shootout with both teams scoring.
I would take N.C.State and the 7.5 or 8 points.

But Id rather wait until they each play a competitive team to get a better read.
As far as ML (-300). I would do a live bet on them and see how the game is going first.

BOL.

 

[jamerx]

 

[Iknowsportz]

Nebraska +3.5 over Colorado. 4 units
Get it now with that number

What is impressive is that Neon Deion pulled 58 transfers and turned them into a winner for game one.
Dont take that lightly.
He just infused a massive dose of confidence to all of those players and he has had a dramatic influence on them now. Something that they likely never experience in their entire life playing for anyone else.

The only caution now is its very unlikely they will play at that level again in regards to passing yards. They had 510 yds passing. They also had poor rushing numbers with only 55 yds.

Nebraska is a far tougher team to beat with 16 returning starters.
Last week they were a 7.5 dog to Minnesota and lost in a 13-10 game.

The question now is What team is better. Minnesota or Colorado?

Last year Minnesota was a huge plus points team. They acored 28 and allowed only 14. Most of that team returned with 15 starters and the QB.
Colorado doesnt possess the kind of defense that Minnesota has.

The CornHuskers are befinatelty the play with that number IMO.

You don’t think that line will climb with public backing Colorado?

 

[G-Man!]

You don’t think that line will climb with public backing Colorado?

It might - but it could also drop just to get more action on Colorado.
I see a possible upset but not worth playing at this time.

FWIW, TCU was depleted with stars gone from last year. I dont put too much credit on the Colo win. TCU still managed 42 pts on the road with only 3 returning starters on offense. That fact alone tells me that the Colorado defense doesnt exist. Nebraska should walk away a winner.

 

[VegasKnows]

Good luck G-man.
If I was playing this one Huskers would be the pick. I'm just gonna watch this one.

 

[BoutMyMoney]

3.5 points? Where did he get that number?

Everywhere.

 

[Loves2kickass]

You don’t think that line will climb with public backing Colorado?

I have pretty decent knowledge of lines, respected (sharp) & public money and line movement. I'll explain in short detail.

A book could take a ton of public money and/or a high-roller play and not move the line. They could taking something far smaller from a sharp customer and decide to make a move. Just because a book gets pounded with public money it doesn't mean they'll move the line, especially since, in this case the adjusted line has been out for almost 4 days and it moved 2 points within minutes.

I hope that helps.

 

[G-Man!]

I have pretty decent knowledge of lines, respected (sharp) & public money and line movement. I'll explain in short detail.

A book could take a ton of public money and/or a high-roller play and not move the line. They could taking something far smaller from a sharp customer and decide to make a move. Just because a book gets pounded with public money it doesn't mean they'll move the line, especially since, in this case the adjusted line has been out for almost 4 days and it moved 2 points within minutes.

I hope that helps.

Dont believe that 'Sharps win every game. They dont.
This line was intentionallty set wrong to take advantage of the masses which was predictable with the prior game bets. Thats is WHY the ,line wont move much now. It will be moved only to create more of the masses on the loser..
The 2 minutes you claim the line moved 2pts was already set ahead time to get that reaction to it.
They want the masses on the wrong side.

It kills me how many people think they can read line movement - but Vegas isnt ready for it? LOL
High attraction betting is where all the lines are off intentionally. Its because Vegas isn guessing at spreads. Only the public is.

If you like a team - and then you see line movement - sure its smart to get the best line in your favor.
But Since you dont know what a good line is - then movement only is what you believe is right for your side of the bet..
For one game like this...much more attention is on it BECAUSE this ,one was intentionally set to handle that volume in the first place and to get more players on the losing side.

The bets were 58 percent on TCU last week, only because they made the playoffs last year.
The public wasn't looking at returning players LOST for TCU in the Colorado matchup.
But for the 42 percent who followed Colorado last week, most of those winners are on them this week for sure.
Coupled with the fact they beat what the public believes was a great team with TCU (which is NOT) is why we again have a line that is way off again.
This is an example of the wrong team being favored - all because the Public Perception is predictable by Historical betting habits.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Dont believe that 'Sharps win every game. They dont.
This line was intentionallty set wrong to take advantage of the masses which was predictable with the prior game bets. Thats is WHY the ,line wont move much now. It will be moved only to create more of the masses on the loser..
The 2 minutes you claim the line moved 2pts was already set ahead time to get that reaction to it.
They want the masses on the wrong side.

It kills me how many people think they can read line movement - but Vegas isnt ready for it? LOL
High attraction betting is where all the lines are off intentionally. Its because Vegas isn guessing at spreads. Only the public is.

If you like a team - and then you see line movement - sure its smart to get the best line in your favor.
But Since you dont know what a good line is - then movement only is what you believe is right for your side of the bet..
For one game like this...much more attention is on it BECAUSE this ,one was intentionally set to handle that volume in the first place and to get more players on the losing side.

The bets were 58 percent on TCU last week, only because they made the playoffs last year.
The public wasn't looking at returning players LOST for TCU in the Colorado matchup.
But for the 42 percent who followed Colorado last week, most of those winners are on them this week for sure.
Coupled with the fact they beat what the public believes was a great team with TCU (which is NOT) is why we again have a line that is way off again.
This is an example of the wrong team being favored - all because the Public Perception is predictable by Historical betting habits.

I assume that was directed at me since you quoted me. Your points well taken. With that being said I'm not just throwing out false, public info. I happen to be good friends with a main writer/reporter at VI and he speaks to the sportsbook risk supervisors on a daily/weekly basis (Superbook, Pointbet, MGM, and more) to write his columns and that's where I get some of my opinions/knowledge from. My statement above i just didn't pull out of my ass, it's fact. My main point was a lot of public money didn't necessarily move a line, which was the question asked, but rather a respected bet from a bettor who is Id'd as such does move a line, even if it's not a large bet. Good luck this week.