*****G-Man's College Plays.Week Fourteen (14)- 26-9 (74%) Last 35*****

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Season. 101-68. (60%)

Units that are more than One(1) will be noted from now through the Bowl Season.


Friday
Utah +3 (#11) over USC,(#4) (Neutral Site - Las Vegas)
This is a prime example of teams being rated by wins. In many cases those teams become over rated.

Utes have the better defense and are a seasoned bowler returning from last year when they played against top ranked Ohio State.
These Championship games are just like Bowl Games IMO. In this case, both teams have faced each other this year.

This Championhip game has some good comparisons as Utah played USC and won by 1 point earlier this year. That game was in Utah, but the final score was as true as the outcome on the field. The actual difference in total yardage was 6 yds.
Utah played 7 teams with winning records while USC played 5. One game with Oregon State reveals what a good defense can do to USC. They held USC to it lowest score on the season with 17 points.
Only two teams in the conference had allowed less than 300 points on defense for the year. That was UTAH and Oregon State.
In the last 5 games of the season after USC played Utah this year - USC played 3 losing teams.
Utah faced 3 losers as well.
Last game for USC was against Notre Dame and won38-27.
Utah faced Colorado and won 63-21.

In Road games, USC played only 5 and allowed more average points(33) overall.
Utah played 6 road games and allowed less points on average(24).
This is a road game for both teams.
SINCE THE LAST GAME BETWEEN THESE TWO, THE TROJANS HAVE GIVEN UP 34 points per game. Thats 8 points over their season averages.
Utah has allowed 16, well below the solid season numbers at 20 per game.
Lastly in that game there were 12 touchdowns and no field goals.
Based on the numbers, it looks like USC may not reach 31 points. We'll see.

Utah +3. 2 units


North Texas +8.5 over UTSA. Neutral Site. San Antonio Texas.

They played each other at UTSA and UTSA won 31-27.
Since then UTSA won all their games and are on a 9 game winning streak.
NT has gone 3-1 since the loss to UTSA.
In recent common opponents, the point spreads are inconsistent in comparison with the line on this game.
UTSA is inflated. They gave NT 10 in the prior matchup at UTSA and now are giving 8.5 in a road game.
One important note: NT had only 22 yards rushing in that loss to UTSA.
Both NT starting RB's are questionable for Friday, but if they play, then NT could win this SU.

North Texas +8.5.
 
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Added Plays above.
Saturday.
More later
 

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G/man.......BOL with your Fri. action.....
on Utah with you.....indy
 

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Saturday
12Noon.
Kansas State(#10) +1.5 over TCU(#3).
Similar situation like the Utah game.
Undefeated team a small favorite over a team with 3 losses.
KS beat some of the same opponents that TCU played by wider margins. There were some losses to the common opponent but overall K-State was better in point margins.
Most recent was the Baylor game. KS held Baylor to 3 pts while TCU won 29-28.

Head to head, KS lost to TCU 38-28 6 weeks ago. But there was a good reason.
KS had the lead in the first half, but they were playing with a backup QB HOWARD after the first series because the true starter (Martinez) went out injured after the first series in the game. KS had an 28-17 lead at the half .
The 2nd string backup also went out injured for K-State. In comes the third stringer and "puff" the game was over.
TCU got short fields and KS couldn't move the ball with a 3rd string QB
TCU shutout KS in the second half to roll to an easy win.

I think if Howard starts or Martinez, K-Sate covers and has enough to win.
Howard played long enough to put up 3 TD's in the 1st half and KS had 28 first half points.
KS also has RB Vaughn and he had 83 yds on only 12 carries. Things should be different for K-State Today.
My Play. K-State 2 units


12 NOON
Toledo -3 over Ohio.

Here is a great angle on common opponents played today.
Both teams are nearly the same defensively in points allowed at 2 pts apart. same on offense -1 pt apart on offense.

Looking at recent games against common opponents, a deeper look takes me to one direction and reverses my initial choice.

With both teams playing Western Michigan and Bowling Green, just the scores alone lead to betting on Ohio.
Ohio won against BG 38-14 - while Toledo lost SU to BG 35-42.

Second game was Ohio 33-14 over WM - while Toledo Lost SU 14-20.
Ohio scored more points and allowed much less in the 2 contests.
That should have made Ohio the favorite.
They're not.

But one factor reverses that initial choice on Ohio. -Turnovers.

Ohio won the BG game on 4 BG turnovers while Ohio had none.
Toledo lost to BG but they had 3 turnovers in that one-score game and BG had only one turnover.
Ohio against WM - WM had 6 turnovers while ohio had 2.
Toledo had 4 turnovers vs WM while WM had only one.
Same thing happened vs Buffalo. Toledo had 6 TO's to 0 for Buffalo.
Ohio had 2 TO's while Buffalo had 3.
The risk is if the Rockets turnover the ball.

As far as ball control, one more detail shows that Ohio is actually NEGATIVE in 1st downs. Not a good sign for a team with a winning record. And knowing they had benefited from opponent turnovers makes that stat glaring.

Ohio had 259 but allowed 273
Toledo had 261 but allowed only 210.

Also the fact that Toledo still has the 1st down advantage on the season and coughed up the ball so much, the Plus 1st down advantage carries much more weight in Toledo's favor today.
My Play Toledo


3"30.PM
Troy -6.5 over Coastal Carolina.

One game tells the story.
Both Played Mardshall. Troy won 16-7.
CC won 24-13.
CC had 270 yds on offense while giving up 407! Marshall had 2 turnovers that cost them the game they dominated in yardage.

Troy had 400 yds on offense and allowed Marshall only 174! If this game is close at all i would be surprised.
Troy should win by 17 at least. We'll see.
My Play Troy.


4:00PM
Fresno State +3 over Boise.

Four of their first 7 games for Fresno were way below their potential. They scored 20 or less in 4 of the games.
Since then they've found a much improved offense and are averaging 39 lys per game. They will be bringing a far better offense than what they had early in the season losing to Boise 40-20.
The Fresno defense has picked up as well holding opponents to only 15.6 pts per game.
SU win here even if its in Boise.
My Play. Fresno


4:00PM
LSU +17.5 over Georgia.

Talk about a look-ahead game being distracting.
LSU got beat SU last week against A&M. They were never in that game.

Georgia crushed GT and never
blinked.
If LSU would have won last week this line would be more like 8 IMO.
The fact that they beat Alabama, was so good for the Tigers, that they come in here confident from that win.
Neutral site game is still the advantage for Georgia as its in Atlanta.
I Like the better defense with Georgia - but the points are too many to cover with a underdog getting that much and having a winning record.
My Play LSU +17.5


8:00PM
Clemson -7.5 over North Carolina.

I Like this game every much.
N.Carolina was beat by a backup QB from NC State.
Both played ND.
I had Notre Dame +4 played against Clemson and wrote it up as a SU win. (Posted here few weeks ago). I won with ND.

N.Carolina lost to ND but the loss was in North Carolina.
Both teams were favored within reason. NC -2.5 and Clemson -4.0.

Difference that I see is that ND was far better as a team late in the season than when they played N.Carolina in week four.
In addition NC has not been as good as they were early in the season.

The true advange now for Clemson is that they are 9 points per game better than NC overall on defense.

Lookin at NC losing its last 2 games SU is another indicator of a blowout coming today. One last important note;

I said above - that NC lost to a NC State backup QB.

Well Clemson beat NC State 30-20 early in the season who was playing with their starter at QB in that game for NC State.
The details make all the difference .
My Play. Clemson. 2 units
.

Michigan VS Purdue.
I dont think that Michigan will have a let down after the biggest game of the year last week.
More later.
 
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added plays
 
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Good luck on the plays.

Great info as usual. Thanks for sharing.

Any thoughts on UCF/Tulane?
 

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Good luck on the plays.

Great info as usual. Thanks for sharing.

Any thoughts on UCF/Tulane?
Sorry.
I didnt see this until UCF game started.
But I had no side. Couldnt find any big advantage.
UCF had issues all season with Turnovers..
Worth a live bet if you can get UCF +7.5...
 

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Michigan top RB is out. Looks like mass bettors are all on Purdue.
Im sure Michigan will finish the season undefeated until playoffs.
No Bet for me.

Line moves down from 17 to 14 favor taking Michigan IMO.
 

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Utah +3. (2 units)...............W
North Texas +8.5...............L.
K-State (2 units)..................W
Toledo -3 over Ohio..........W
Troy -6.5................................W
Fresno +3.............................W
LSU +17.5.............................L

Clemson -7.5 (2 Units).......W

Week Total. 6-2.

Season. 109-70. (60%)
 

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Utah +3. (2 units)...............W
North Texas +8.5...............L.
K-State (2 units)..................W
Toledo -3 over Ohio..........W
Troy -6.5................................W
Fresno +3.............................W
LSU +17.5.............................L

Clemson -7.5 (2 Units).......W

Week Total. 6-2.

Season. 109-70. (60%)
Congrats on another outstanding day, my friend! I appreciate all the work you put into this game.
 

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