Easy Win Last Night with Kansas State
The seasons final play. Georgia - Alabama.
After going 24-9 in the bowls- here is the Biggest of all.
This entire analysis is based on no Covid issues changing the forecast. If things change before game day, this may or may not - become a different play.
No trends are considered. They are worthless as always to me. Only todays team with todays players matter.
Georgia -3 over Alabama
Georgia ML -145.
The Common opponent is important here as always. Statistical Advantages are also relevant, with a careful analysis on those stats.
Winning teams can pay a hundred games against each other and the best team doesn't always win.
Georgia lost SU to 6-point underdog Alabama in the Conference Championship game. The game was lost in the 2nd qtr when Alabama scored 24 points.
The Georgia run game was shut down to 109 yds on 30 carries. That is the main reason they lost offensively - with the defense being clueless for the first half. I'll explain later here.
The two interceptions were damaging, but the last one in the fourth qtr for a TD made no difference in the final outcome.
Georgia must be able to run the ball.. When that happens, the opponent gets fewer chances to score. It also puts the opponent in a pass mode to catch up.
When Alabama took the lead, Saban was smart to know that the Bulldogs would no longer be able to stop them.
Georgia was the top run defense in the country so Saban decided to see if they could pass on them and it worked. Georgia was unprepared for that and never made the adjustment to it and lost.
This game will be different - as changes will likely be made to shut down the pass first and the run second. Georgia has the better defense and will make that change. Many of the passes that Bama had were long gainers. Georgia needs to fix that and then win the game.
In common opponents, Georgia was better against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn than how Alabama played them. The scores were closer for the Bama games while Georgia won easily and shut down all three opponents.
The Point spread was over priced for Alabama on all three games because of betting public on Alabama.
Validation for that is recognized as well, because only Florida was played by Bama before Georgia played them. But Georgia played at a neutral site against Florida for the game.
Scores for Alabama were:
Bama (-14). 31-29 over @ Florida
Bama (-21). 24-22 iver @ Auburn
Bama (-21). 42-35 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home and 2 away.
Scores for Georgia were:
Bulldogs (-14) 34-7. over Florida (N)
Bulldogs (-14.5) 34-10 over @Auburn
Bulldogs (-16.5) 37-0 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home game. 1 away and 1. Neutral site.
Now we get to Georgia and the Alabama spread and SU loss in the Conference playoff game..
Georgia was a 6 point favorite and lost SU as explained above.
The spread was based on the public over paying on common opponents in the earlier matchups as shown above.
The playoff game was a neutral site game.
Obviously with Georgia out-scoring all three opponents that Alabama played - the line was based on those scoring advantages and put into play on the playoff game being at a neutral site. Thats all true and correct.
In statistical advantages - Georgia should have won the game by more than 7 points, but lost.
Knowing that the line was realistic to the potential outcome and since Vegas has the betting history in their favor to justify the spread to their advantage, they were counting on a win.
Regular season scoring against all opponents was Georgia 39-10.
Alabama scoring was 43-20. A natural difference when is subtracted from the other is @6 points.
Georgia was better on defense by 10 points, but Bama was better by 4 points on offense. Result Georgia better by 6.
But in these 3 games against common opponents, Georgia was far better with averages at. 35-6.
Alabama was 32-28. The main difference was the defense by Georgia. That defense didnt play like that against Alabama just a few weeks ago.
This game is where its at now. Strictly the defense and that's where the adjustment must come from. The offense will take car of itself when the defense plays the way its capable of playing.
I doubt that Bama could ever play defense any better than it did in the last game - with Georgia only scoring 24 points, - but Im sure that the Georgia defense can fix everything this time to prevent Alabama from reaching that score again, or anywhere near it.
In addition - If Georgia removes the interceptions for this game, they will drive the ball and continue to score more.
As we speak - its noted that 63% are on the SU Dog-winner again, all because of that last game. The Public is all over Alabama.
Vegas just did what their betting history advantage gives them. They feel that they still have their best interest on Georgia and moved the spread down to 3 points from 6 in the previous game - with all the masses on Bama.
They just put 3 more points in their advantage.
They are still basing the spread by the public being on Bama. and they are keeping the public there - even though they gave themselves a better advantageof 3 points without losing any Bama backers on that side.
The season-long points scored are the original factors the line was set on in the last game. Now The public is banking all the money on the upset that day -again!.
All the public see's now - is a 41-24 win by the dog who is a dog again.
Finally Looking at the last 2 teams that played Georgia and Alabama, (Michigan and Cincinnati), there is no doubt what team was better.
Cincy couldn't beat Michigan at anytime and Georgia dominated Michigan - just the way they're are going to play Alabama for this game on Monday,
Georgia must focus on the pass, as Alabama was one of the worst bowl teams with only a 3.6 yds per rush average vs bowlers.
The Georgia defensive line will be good enough to cover the run - and that gives Georgia the chance to play 5 DB's against the pass. Something they didnt do until the second half in the last game.
In the Playoff game for the SEC Championship, Alabama scored on its last four possessions of the 1st half. Alabama produced 365 yards, including Young's 286 passing -- an SEC title-game first-half record. That wont happen again.
My Plays are Georgia ML -145
Georgia -3.
Looking For Win #25!
GL to all. We had a great Bowl-Run together.
The seasons final play. Georgia - Alabama.
After going 24-9 in the bowls- here is the Biggest of all.
This entire analysis is based on no Covid issues changing the forecast. If things change before game day, this may or may not - become a different play.
No trends are considered. They are worthless as always to me. Only todays team with todays players matter.
Georgia -3 over Alabama
Georgia ML -145.
The Common opponent is important here as always. Statistical Advantages are also relevant, with a careful analysis on those stats.
Winning teams can pay a hundred games against each other and the best team doesn't always win.
Georgia lost SU to 6-point underdog Alabama in the Conference Championship game. The game was lost in the 2nd qtr when Alabama scored 24 points.
The Georgia run game was shut down to 109 yds on 30 carries. That is the main reason they lost offensively - with the defense being clueless for the first half. I'll explain later here.
The two interceptions were damaging, but the last one in the fourth qtr for a TD made no difference in the final outcome.
Georgia must be able to run the ball.. When that happens, the opponent gets fewer chances to score. It also puts the opponent in a pass mode to catch up.
When Alabama took the lead, Saban was smart to know that the Bulldogs would no longer be able to stop them.
Georgia was the top run defense in the country so Saban decided to see if they could pass on them and it worked. Georgia was unprepared for that and never made the adjustment to it and lost.
This game will be different - as changes will likely be made to shut down the pass first and the run second. Georgia has the better defense and will make that change. Many of the passes that Bama had were long gainers. Georgia needs to fix that and then win the game.
In common opponents, Georgia was better against Arkansas, Florida and Auburn than how Alabama played them. The scores were closer for the Bama games while Georgia won easily and shut down all three opponents.
The Point spread was over priced for Alabama on all three games because of betting public on Alabama.
Validation for that is recognized as well, because only Florida was played by Bama before Georgia played them. But Georgia played at a neutral site against Florida for the game.
Scores for Alabama were:
Bama (-14). 31-29 over @ Florida
Bama (-21). 24-22 iver @ Auburn
Bama (-21). 42-35 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home and 2 away.
Scores for Georgia were:
Bulldogs (-14) 34-7. over Florida (N)
Bulldogs (-14.5) 34-10 over @Auburn
Bulldogs (-16.5) 37-0 (H) over Arkansas.
1 home game. 1 away and 1. Neutral site.
Now we get to Georgia and the Alabama spread and SU loss in the Conference playoff game..
Georgia was a 6 point favorite and lost SU as explained above.
The spread was based on the public over paying on common opponents in the earlier matchups as shown above.
The playoff game was a neutral site game.
Obviously with Georgia out-scoring all three opponents that Alabama played - the line was based on those scoring advantages and put into play on the playoff game being at a neutral site. Thats all true and correct.
In statistical advantages - Georgia should have won the game by more than 7 points, but lost.
Knowing that the line was realistic to the potential outcome and since Vegas has the betting history in their favor to justify the spread to their advantage, they were counting on a win.
Regular season scoring against all opponents was Georgia 39-10.
Alabama scoring was 43-20. A natural difference when is subtracted from the other is @6 points.
Georgia was better on defense by 10 points, but Bama was better by 4 points on offense. Result Georgia better by 6.
But in these 3 games against common opponents, Georgia was far better with averages at. 35-6.
Alabama was 32-28. The main difference was the defense by Georgia. That defense didnt play like that against Alabama just a few weeks ago.
This game is where its at now. Strictly the defense and that's where the adjustment must come from. The offense will take car of itself when the defense plays the way its capable of playing.
I doubt that Bama could ever play defense any better than it did in the last game - with Georgia only scoring 24 points, - but Im sure that the Georgia defense can fix everything this time to prevent Alabama from reaching that score again, or anywhere near it.
In addition - If Georgia removes the interceptions for this game, they will drive the ball and continue to score more.
As we speak - its noted that 63% are on the SU Dog-winner again, all because of that last game. The Public is all over Alabama.
Vegas just did what their betting history advantage gives them. They feel that they still have their best interest on Georgia and moved the spread down to 3 points from 6 in the previous game - with all the masses on Bama.
They just put 3 more points in their advantage.
They are still basing the spread by the public being on Bama. and they are keeping the public there - even though they gave themselves a better advantageof 3 points without losing any Bama backers on that side.
The season-long points scored are the original factors the line was set on in the last game. Now The public is banking all the money on the upset that day -again!.
All the public see's now - is a 41-24 win by the dog who is a dog again.
Finally Looking at the last 2 teams that played Georgia and Alabama, (Michigan and Cincinnati), there is no doubt what team was better.
Cincy couldn't beat Michigan at anytime and Georgia dominated Michigan - just the way they're are going to play Alabama for this game on Monday,
Georgia must focus on the pass, as Alabama was one of the worst bowl teams with only a 3.6 yds per rush average vs bowlers.
The Georgia defensive line will be good enough to cover the run - and that gives Georgia the chance to play 5 DB's against the pass. Something they didnt do until the second half in the last game.
In the Playoff game for the SEC Championship, Alabama scored on its last four possessions of the 1st half. Alabama produced 365 yards, including Young's 286 passing -- an SEC title-game first-half record. That wont happen again.
My Plays are Georgia ML -145
Georgia -3.
Looking For Win #25!
GL to all. We had a great Bowl-Run together.
