Saturday
11AM.
Ohio +4 (-120) over Ga Southern. 10 units
Ga. Southern had scored less than 20pts per game vs defenses that allowed 20 points per game or less. Transfers will be important here, but this game will be won by the better defense . Ga.So was not good at all on defense and allowed 30pts per game on the season and is ranked as one of the worst of the bowlers defensively.
The line moved drastically - but it is an over reaction to the transfer losses by Ohio.
2:15PM
UL Lousianna +3.5 over J'ville St.. 10 units.
UL was a Plus scoring team during the season but fell a full 6 pts vs Bowlers in to a negative-4 scoring team. They will need at least 24 pts to cover this one and against a far better defense.
UL is starting a 3rd string QB , but his rating is as good or better than Wooldridge who was out since September.
The second string QB is also out, which puts the 3rd stringer in. UL held their own vs a superior Troy team and could upset here vs first time Bowler J'Ville - who is starting a first year QB.
J'Ville got here as a favorite by barely losing to New Mexico State, but was out gained by 120yds and also was gifted 4 turnovers by NMS. That WAS their Bowl game. This one could be much different. We'll see.
3:30PM Dec 16th
Miami, OH. +6.5 over Appy state. 10 units
Miami ML+215 2 units.
Nearly the same story as the Ohio play above, as the Appy defense was also one of the worst on defense allowing 28pts per game. Offensively they are a plus 7 as they averaged 35pts per game but facing this defense will be hard for Appy. The Redhawks dont like losing and could pull-off the upset.
Miami is starting a 3rd sting QB but will be able to stay in it all day with their defense and the lack offense for Appy .
Troy was another excellent defensive team that allowed on 17pts per game and they held Appy to 23 pts but Troy pounded them by rolling up 49.
In addition - Appy beat Ga.So. 55-27 to inflate their value in the 2nd last game of the season, but did it on FOUR(4) Ga.Southern. turnovers. Otherwise that game would have been much closer, compared to the final score.
Miam held 6 bowlers to an average of only 18pts per game and that includes the 38-3 near-shutout they lost to Miami. Fla.
5:30PM
Fresno State +3.5 over New Mexico St. 10 Units
NMSU won aas a 25pt dog to Auburn and that one game has inflated this line vs Fresno.
NMSU QB Pavia has been outstanding but has a shoulder injury that could keep in the pocket instead of running the ball.
This is a home game for NMSU as its in the "NewMexico Bowl".
One common opponent for these two teams was New Mexico. Fresno was favored by -22 while NMSU was DOG by only 2. Thats a 26 pt. difference with the two teams which now are only 3.5 pts apart for this game. Im not sure Fresno has fallen 24 points ATS, in game stats, to justify the spread differences here.
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7:30PM
UCLA -4.5 over Boise. 10 Units.
Bosie lost its starting QB to transfer to Arizona. They will be starting True Freshman CJ Tiller who has never thrown a pass this year.
Boise's offense was scoring 33 pts per game. Expect a significant drop in scoring with the True Fresman on the run.
Cal +3.5 over Texas Tech. 10 units
Tech Red Raiders have the 4th best Running back (Tahi Brooks) in College, but several players are out from transfer portal - even though Head Coach McGuire say's "Some " of the transfer players will play. I'm Not banking on who "some" are, so Cal is my play in this one.
TT lost 4 games by turnovers. They are minus -7 on the season (21-14)
TT running back with his lofty status still puts TT above average running the ball, but against Bowl level teams they averaged 4.5 which is solid, but not dominating. The TT run defense is horrible allowing 5 yds per rush vs bowlers and that gives Cal a shot at winning.
Cals run defense is decent (Ranked 38th) also allowing only 4.2 vs Bowlers - so this game is all about overall defense.
Brooks was held to only 95 yds rushing vs Texas and Cal will focus on that. Texas shut down the run and in turn it killed the TT passing game and held them to 88 yds in the Air.
11AM.
Ohio +4 (-120) over Ga Southern. 10 units
Ga. Southern had scored less than 20pts per game vs defenses that allowed 20 points per game or less. Transfers will be important here, but this game will be won by the better defense . Ga.So was not good at all on defense and allowed 30pts per game on the season and is ranked as one of the worst of the bowlers defensively.
The line moved drastically - but it is an over reaction to the transfer losses by Ohio.
2:15PM
UL Lousianna +3.5 over J'ville St.. 10 units.
UL was a Plus scoring team during the season but fell a full 6 pts vs Bowlers in to a negative-4 scoring team. They will need at least 24 pts to cover this one and against a far better defense.
UL is starting a 3rd string QB , but his rating is as good or better than Wooldridge who was out since September.
The second string QB is also out, which puts the 3rd stringer in. UL held their own vs a superior Troy team and could upset here vs first time Bowler J'Ville - who is starting a first year QB.
J'Ville got here as a favorite by barely losing to New Mexico State, but was out gained by 120yds and also was gifted 4 turnovers by NMS. That WAS their Bowl game. This one could be much different. We'll see.
3:30PM Dec 16th
Miami, OH. +6.5 over Appy state. 10 units
Miami ML+215 2 units.
Nearly the same story as the Ohio play above, as the Appy defense was also one of the worst on defense allowing 28pts per game. Offensively they are a plus 7 as they averaged 35pts per game but facing this defense will be hard for Appy. The Redhawks dont like losing and could pull-off the upset.
Miami is starting a 3rd sting QB but will be able to stay in it all day with their defense and the lack offense for Appy .
Troy was another excellent defensive team that allowed on 17pts per game and they held Appy to 23 pts but Troy pounded them by rolling up 49.
In addition - Appy beat Ga.So. 55-27 to inflate their value in the 2nd last game of the season, but did it on FOUR(4) Ga.Southern. turnovers. Otherwise that game would have been much closer, compared to the final score.
Miam held 6 bowlers to an average of only 18pts per game and that includes the 38-3 near-shutout they lost to Miami. Fla.
5:30PM
Fresno State +3.5 over New Mexico St. 10 Units
NMSU won aas a 25pt dog to Auburn and that one game has inflated this line vs Fresno.
NMSU QB Pavia has been outstanding but has a shoulder injury that could keep in the pocket instead of running the ball.
This is a home game for NMSU as its in the "NewMexico Bowl".
One common opponent for these two teams was New Mexico. Fresno was favored by -22 while NMSU was DOG by only 2. Thats a 26 pt. difference with the two teams which now are only 3.5 pts apart for this game. Im not sure Fresno has fallen 24 points ATS, in game stats, to justify the spread differences here.
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7:30PM
UCLA -4.5 over Boise. 10 Units.
Bosie lost its starting QB to transfer to Arizona. They will be starting True Freshman CJ Tiller who has never thrown a pass this year.
Boise's offense was scoring 33 pts per game. Expect a significant drop in scoring with the True Fresman on the run.
Cal +3.5 over Texas Tech. 10 units
Tech Red Raiders have the 4th best Running back (Tahi Brooks) in College, but several players are out from transfer portal - even though Head Coach McGuire say's "Some " of the transfer players will play. I'm Not banking on who "some" are, so Cal is my play in this one.
TT lost 4 games by turnovers. They are minus -7 on the season (21-14)
TT running back with his lofty status still puts TT above average running the ball, but against Bowl level teams they averaged 4.5 which is solid, but not dominating. The TT run defense is horrible allowing 5 yds per rush vs bowlers and that gives Cal a shot at winning.
Cals run defense is decent (Ranked 38th) also allowing only 4.2 vs Bowlers - so this game is all about overall defense.
Brooks was held to only 95 yds rushing vs Texas and Cal will focus on that. Texas shut down the run and in turn it killed the TT passing game and held them to 88 yds in the Air.
