When the whole world is on one side, run to the other. Obvious advice. Everyone marked up the dollar, hasn't gone anywhere since then. Everyone was convinced bond rates were a one-way bet, they have dropped since. Oil is the last bubble left. The reasoning is simple. Inventories are a good deal higher this year than they have been in a number of years. The price is pinching enough to crimp demand ever so slightly. The biggest kicker is whenever King George finally stops topping off the reserves down there in Louisiana the last kicker to this oil price bubble will be ended. Oil might have spikes higher than $60, but in no way does it make sense to stay there. There are vast stores of oil out there that are not economic to take out of the ground when barrels are at $20 or less, but start making sense above that point. The longer we stay well above that point, rest assured the minions up there in Alberta and in numerous other places are stirring looking for ways to kick up production. The most ineffective sources of oil are a jackpot at these prices, once a few majors get into those sources the prices will start to tumble down into the $30s. I would say only 20% chance at best at this time next year we are at our current prices, the bulls will be out of the market and sanity in supply/demand will assert itself as it always does eventually. Oil in the $22-28 band OPEC used to stick to probably isn't in our future, but the band almost assuredly isn't up to $50-58 either.
