Fullerton @ Georgetown - 4P (PST) on ESPN

[winkyduck]

***i did this write-up in Word then copied/pasted it here - and from the looks of things the format didn't come out so great - the content did but the layout didn't - sorry about that.***

our best player ralphy holmes either tore his MCL or meniscus in his left knee. either way - he is DONE for his <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> career. this is to bad for if he got to play on ESPN the country would get to see just how good he is - and he is GOOOOD! he has become the team's emotional leader and the go to guy down the stretch. he hit the GWG FG @ <st1:State><st1lace>oregon</st1lace></st1:State> state @ the OT buzzer and he is the UNQUESTIONABLE leader of this team. for those who recall when cedric ceballos played at fullerton – ralphy is somewhat of the same player – when things break down and the shot clock is winding down – the ball finds it way to ralphy who finds a way to create something out of nothing and if he doesn’t make the shot – at least gets it on the rim to prevent a shot clock violation and give his team the chance to get the ball back.



w/o him the team now only has EIGHT healthy bodies. check the boxscores

of <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City>'s 2 NIT games and you will see the starters literally played the entire game. now take away ralphy and that means a bench player has to come in and start and that also gives us 1 less backup on the bench.



we have ZERO depth for this game - and against G'town that is not good.

take a look at the 4 "bench" players we have - and now put 1 in the starting lineup (most likely justin burns). look now at the other 3 players and see it gets SCARY if any of thr BIG 4 get into any kind of foul trouble - and against GU - the titans WILL get into foul trouble.



also - take a look at <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City>'s travel plans. they left sunday on a 3:30A flight to <st1:City><st1lace>oakland</st1lace></st1:City> - spent 6 hours there until they could board a plane to DC. they will get there sometime today and be rested enough for tuesday's game - but i still think this stupid travel plan will get to them in the end.



here is the link to <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City>'s official site - and you will find the link to all of this info about a handful of stories down the page:



http://www.titansports.org



this is a direct link to the PDF file press release, too:



http://www.titansports.org/mbasketball/2004-05/headlines/NIT%20gtown.pdf



knowing how few healthy players we have - and how big GU is and how poor their guards are - i have ZERO doubt <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> will be forced to play a zone all game - for if they play "man" defense GU will pound the ball down low an get our big guys into foul trouble and it will be GAME OVER!



<st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> was the top scoring team in the BW this season - by far - but knowing all we do about their situation here - i don't see anyway they

can score a lot of points. we have GREAT guard play and i think <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> has to put the game in their hands and let them control it. you can mark this in stone - Bobby Brown will play all 40 minutes for us - barring foul trouble or injury. and should <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> have another injury i swear the possibility of ending the game with 4 players could happen. this team is THAT banged up.



when this game is being shown - and when it is over - the nation will wonder how <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> got to this game and walk away saying the team stinks. for this game - they will be 100% correct. but w/o the injuries - and even w/o the injury to ralphy - <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> would be able to "hang" in this game. but w/o ralphy and w/o any depth and height - this game has the makings of something ugly.



with ralphy - this line would have come about GU -6/-7



i don't see how <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> can score a lot of points and i also think <st1:City><st1lace>fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> KNOWS it can't win a 40-minute game and MUST make this a 25-30 minute game AT MOST to have any shot of winning. i see this game being played at the same kind of pace as the USU/Zona game the other day - one that went almost 20 points UNDER the total. I thought the total would come around 125-130 and i really don't see anyway the actual total gets anywhere near there - unless GU gets most of it by themselves - and GU isn't capable of that. Before playing the last 3 games of the season OVER the total, fullerton was a mind blowing 13-1 to the UNDER on the road and at home (OK – I grant you those game were at MCI Center not the crackerjack gym this game is played in – and if anything this might not hurt fullerton as much as you might think for fullerton plays in a rather tiny gym, too so this will seem more like being back home than on the road – with the HUGE exception of the crowd being AGAINST them – not FOR them!) the Hoyas are 11-2 to the UNDER and these 2 numbers add up to some serious UNDER tendencies. While GU is 11-2 to the UNDER at home – the MOST points scored in a GU home game this season was 133 (Illinois on 12/9/04 and Providence on 3/5/05) so now we are asking for a point total higher than ANY HOME GAME for GU this season (against “lined” D1 opponents that is). Am I the only one here who thinks this is asking for a <st1lace>LOT</st1lace> more than we should be asking for?



I said I thought this game would be played at the same kind of pace as USU/Zona was last week so why not pick the same score:



<st1:City><st1lace>Georgetown</st1lace></st1:City> 66

<st1:City><st1lace>Fullerton</st1lace></st1:City> 53



For this game put me on:



<st1:City><st1lace>Georgetown</st1lace></st1:City> -9.5

UNDER 134

p.s.) i know how TV works - and with that in mind i place an Over/Under of 30 minutes into the telecast before ESPN shows hilites of the Fullerton CWS win last year in Omaha and my guess is at the top of the telecast the announcers mention how something along the lines of, "for those of you out there familiar with fullerton it's because they have a GREAT baseball team - but this time it is the basketball team making an appearance on ESPN" and then they will also go over the MOUNTAIN of injuries we suffered recently as well as all season long

 

[MysticMan]

A very impressive and informative write-up on this game WINKYDUCK. I am the new guy here, as you can probably see by my lack of posts but I'm working on it, and I wish I had waited for your insights before making my play on this game as I did earlier. I personally liked the OVER on this game because of a few factors in play but after reading your post you have me second-guessing myself, which is never good to do from my experience but always appreciated when there is good reasoning behind it such as the ones you provided. I am hoping you're call on the Hoyas is correct because them scoring in bunches sounds like the only way I get to this number as you're not expecting Fullerton to do a heck of a lot, and why should you without them having their leading scorer and go-to-guy available at all. Thanks for your time and the best of luck to you on todays games.

MysticMan​

 

[michael777]

thanks winky

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Thanks for the update. I backed fullerton with a small play since gtown plays such a slow paced game. Im hoping they can stay within 10.

 

[Dante]

thanks WInky....im with you GOOD LUCK!!

 

[bhg]

I liked the under before I saw your thread. This confirmed it - nice work, as always

 

[whormoan]

Winky great work as usual. My only regret is that you post so late we always end up getting the worst of the line if we haven't read your mind as to your selection. Maybe you do this intentionally as your write-ups have influenced certain books to move lines before. Always hate playing a side or total after what I consider a major line move (more than 1 pt). Anyways, good luck. I will be rooting for you but sitting this one out.

 

[ASIInc.]

Thamls Winky

Long ass day of work at the real job. Appreciate your time and info

GL to everyone tonite

 

[Horseshoe]

Thanks Winky, they had already put me on G-town and the Under in the AM, whether by reading your post had an effect, or all on their own..many of the smarts are with you.

BUT, there are some varying views and reversals towards Over as of late..mostly 133.5 and 134 right now..figures 133 to 138.

South Carolina, Rockets and Under for your pocket my Duck!

 

[ThreeFreeThrows]

oh man lots of scoring early......

let's stay UNDER here boys....play that ZONE!

 

[OKSOONER]

The game is on ESPN here in SoCal. I like CSF but the best bet is on G-Town!

GOOD LUCK WINKY an EVERYBODY ELSE!!!

 

[HNYLOC]

Hey winky, after watching first half and their style of play, any buyback or you still like the und?

 

[ThreeFreeThrows]

could take the Over and Prey.........but you could get Polish Dog Middled.


Good Luck....let's see the first 10 mins of the 2nd half produce less than 20....and i will be happy.

 

[winkyduck]

Hey winky, after watching first half and their style of play, any buyback or you still like the und?

hard to buy back now - and it looks like this one is going over - not by much - but will. but we can always hope

 

[HNYLOC]

Holy ****>.. .we Won!#@@!@@#$@!@#!@#@$$@

 

[Brock Landers]

EXCELLENT CALL SIR!!!!


More than excellent, it was Perfect, i am talking GT -10 anyway!

arty:

 

[ThreeFreeThrows]

Oh man........



.......WINKY .....you are the man!!!

thank you !:toast: I owe you 1

We had to SWEAT.....but sweating is good when YOU WIN esp. by 1 point!

Thank you Ashanti Cook for missing the 2nd FT on the one and one. THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU

 

[Teddykgb]

nice call goose!!!!!!! had -10.5 & under 132.5 thought your boys would never stop fouling at the end

 

[joepro]

NICE CALL WINKY. Won 3 freakin' bets on that game.

 

[HPark1]

nice calls, GTown controlled the entire game.