this USF team is very undiscplined ---- penalties, turnovers, etc
they found a way to totally hand the game to USM last weekend
did I mention that their QB (Banks) SUCKS? seriously, this guy can only play if his team has a lead ... if he has to think under any sort of pressure he is COOKED ---- I've been to a couple USF games this year and saw the same thing in both games .... get to him early and he gets rattled EASILY
Cincy runs the ball better and stops the run better --- they've also played the tougher schedule
CINCY +2.5
they found a way to totally hand the game to USM last weekend
did I mention that their QB (Banks) SUCKS? seriously, this guy can only play if his team has a lead ... if he has to think under any sort of pressure he is COOKED ---- I've been to a couple USF games this year and saw the same thing in both games .... get to him early and he gets rattled EASILY
Cincy runs the ball better and stops the run better --- they've also played the tougher schedule
CINCY +2.5
Strut: I agree that he's a good runner, but he is REAL SMALL .... just don't see him being about to taking the beating he'd get as an every down QB
not sure how much you know about USF or how closely you follow them, but they do use him from time to time .... they like to bring him in the redzone (or "greenzone" as USF calls it) sometimes and also for 2 point coversions
they brought him to spark the team against TCU, but it was a little too late .....
not sure how much you know about USF or how closely you follow them, but they do use him from time to time .... they like to bring him in the redzone (or "greenzone" as USF calls it) sometimes and also for 2 point coversions
they brought him to spark the team against TCU, but it was a little too late .....
I had South Florida last week and was very disappointed in their performance. They take a lot of dumb penalties and their QB and running game is nothing special. They found a way to get blown out against a mediocre S. Miss Team that had a big play on the first play for a TD and later blocked a FG for a TD. Banks was not capable of rallying them back. I do not see how SF can be trusted in any future games.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Luckydan:
BigDaddyNole
I ran some numbers on this matchup and my adjusted predicted score taking into account strength of schedule has Cincy winning by 5.
_Cincy 25 - USF 20_<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dan: good work .... I put together a spread sheet that simplifies cranking out these by hand --- I sent you the over/under one today ... I also added a few things to that and it cranks out potential scores with the adjustments for schedule strength
one last thing I wanted to ask you guys though:
Do you add in any points for homefield advantage??? just me thinking out loud here, but I think that might be something to consider as well
another thing I do when I look at these numbers is try to adjust them, at least on lower numbers, to prime gambling numbers (3,4,7,1,0) ... example: if it predicts 19, I'd round that to 20 ... or if it's 25 and someone is on the road, call it 24
for instance in this USF/Cincy game, when I ran the numbers I also came up with the same score, but if you look at it, that takes into account all games and has no home/away bias included
but we can't just add 3 points (or whatever homefield advantage you might add) to USF's score because that would screw up the projected total
if we do add 3 to USF and subtract 3 from Cincy you get a score of USF 23 Cincy 22 --- would probably round it to 23-21 to keep it on "prime numbers", at least when the score is projected to be in the 20's
either way, Cincy covers .... just doesn't look as attractive in terms of playing it on the ML
make sense? am I totally off here? you're "numbers guys" too, so I'm pretty sure that makes sense to you
BigDaddyNole
I ran some numbers on this matchup and my adjusted predicted score taking into account strength of schedule has Cincy winning by 5.
_Cincy 25 - USF 20_<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dan: good work .... I put together a spread sheet that simplifies cranking out these by hand --- I sent you the over/under one today ... I also added a few things to that and it cranks out potential scores with the adjustments for schedule strength
one last thing I wanted to ask you guys though:
Do you add in any points for homefield advantage??? just me thinking out loud here, but I think that might be something to consider as well
another thing I do when I look at these numbers is try to adjust them, at least on lower numbers, to prime gambling numbers (3,4,7,1,0) ... example: if it predicts 19, I'd round that to 20 ... or if it's 25 and someone is on the road, call it 24
for instance in this USF/Cincy game, when I ran the numbers I also came up with the same score, but if you look at it, that takes into account all games and has no home/away bias included
but we can't just add 3 points (or whatever homefield advantage you might add) to USF's score because that would screw up the projected total
if we do add 3 to USF and subtract 3 from Cincy you get a score of USF 23 Cincy 22 --- would probably round it to 23-21 to keep it on "prime numbers", at least when the score is projected to be in the 20's
either way, Cincy covers .... just doesn't look as attractive in terms of playing it on the ML
make sense? am I totally off here? you're "numbers guys" too, so I'm pretty sure that makes sense to you
