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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Friday’s NBA Playoff Action

Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls (-2, 196)

Series tied 1-1

The Cleveland Cavaliers experienced a sharp turnaround while tying the series and look to take a 2-1 edge when they visit the Chicago Bulls in Friday’s Game 3 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Cleveland also gets shooting guard J.R. Smith back from a two-game suspension for hitting Boston’s Jae Crowder in the opening round.

The Cavaliers controlled Game 2 after succumbing in the opener as LeBron James rebounded from a subpar performance to record 33 points and eight rebounds in a 106-91 victory. “There wasn’t one possession where he wasn’t dominant,” point guard Kyrie Irving told reporters. “When he has that mindset, he’s the greatest player playing our game right now.” Chicago trailed by 20 points after the opening quarter in Game 2 and was never really in the contest as guards Jimmy Butler (5-of-14) — named the league’s Most Improved Player on Thursday — and Derrick Rose (6-of-20) both had poor shooting efforts. Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said the defense and rebounding will need to be better in Game 3 in addition to the shooting.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The line opened at CHI -2 with a total of 196.

INJURY REPORT: Cavaliers – G Iman Shupert (Ques-Groin), G J.R. Smith (Elig-Suspension) Bulls – N/A

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: Smith returns just as the status of guard Iman Shumpert becomes uncertain after he suffered a groin injury in Game 2. Shumpert is averaging 18.5 points and made eight 3-pointers in the first two games of the series and insisted afterward that he would play but coach David Blatt told reporters the determination will be made on game day. “Time for one of those miracle 48-hour recoveries, that’s what we’re hoping for,” Blatt told reporters. “He’s obviously a very, very important player for us.”

ABOUT THE BULLS: Rose is shooting 37 percent in the series but more disturbing is that he hasn’t shot a single three throw over the past three games. “I can’t think about that,” Rose told reporters. “I don’t even want to talk about that. But I’m playing and if they’re not calling it, they’re just not calling it.” Power forward Pau Gasol will be seeking a bounce-back game after having just 11 points and four rebounds in Game 2 after producing 21 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots in Game 1.

TRENDS:

*Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
*Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
*Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games following a ATS win.
*Under is 6-1 in Bulls last 7 games following a S.U. loss.

CONSENSUS: 52 percent are backing CLE +2 with 57 percent on the over.



Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5, 217)

Series tied 1-1

It appears Los Angeles point guard Chris Paul will again be on the sidelines when the Clippers host the Houston Rockets in Friday’s Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals. Paul missed the first two games of the series due to a hamstring injury he suffered the Game 7 of the first-round series against the San Antonio Spurs.

Houston tied the series at one game apiece with Wednesday’s 115-109 victory as it set franchise playoff records for free throws made (42) and attempted (64) and received 32 points from star guard James Harden. “I knew my team was battling extremely hard and, basically, it was up to me to go out there and push us forward,” Harden told reporters. The Clippers continue to get big outings from power forward Blake Griffin, who had 34 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2 for his ninth straight double-double of the postseason. “It definitely feels like we let one get away,” Griffin told reporters. “We came here to win two but we’ve got to protect home court now. We can’t hang our heads.”

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE HISTORY: The opening line had LAC -4.5 with a total of 217.

INJURY REPORT: Rockets – G K.J. McDaniels (Out-Wrist) Clippers – G Chris Paul (Ques-Hamstring)

ABOUT THE ROCKETS: Center Dwight Howard has played like the dominant star he once was in the first two games and contributed 24 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks in Game 2. His knee injury is now behind him and he is averaging 23 points, 13 rebounds and 4.5 blocks while making 17-of-24 field-goal attempts. “At this point, it’s win or go home,” Howard told reporters. “You have to continue to play hard and you get through whatever. It is going to be tough out there every night. Every possession counts.”

ABOUT THE CLIPPERS: Coach Doc Rivers expects Paul to return at some point in the series but it doesn’t seem like Friday is even remotely possible since Paul has yet to resume running. “It’s really tough, especially with the way that I play, there’s only way I know how to play,” Paul told reporters. “It’s one of those things where you don’t want to make it worse than it already is.” Austin Rivers has started at the point in Paul’s absence and is averaging 13.5 points and 2.5 assists in the series.

TRENDS:

*Rockets are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
*Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
*Over is 10-2 in Rockets last 12 vs. Western Conference.
*Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.

CONSENSUS: LAC -4.5 is receiving 52 percent backing with 63 percent on the ‘under’.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, May 8 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

This doesn’t exactly rank up there with gutsy predictions like Babe Ruth calling his shot in Game 3 of the 1932 World Series at Wrigley Field against the Cubs or the Jets’ Joe Namath guaranteeing victory for his Jets over the heavily-favored Miami Dolphins in Super Bowl III. But I’m going to guarantee this: there will be a lead change in Game 3 of the Cavaliers-Bulls series on Friday night. Rather amazingly, there hasn’t been one yet, and thus it has been a rather drab first two games with big early leads in each. Both Game 3s on Friday night will be on ESPN.

Cavaliers at Bulls (-1.5, 196)

I’ll eat some crow on Game 2 of this series, a 106-91 Cavs win. I thought that Cleveland would win to even things up, but I took the six points on Chicago. However, the Bulls looked almost disinterested from the start, and LeBron James was much more aggressive than he was in the opener. James, who had his headband back on, took a whopping 29 shots and made 13 of them for 33 points to go with eight rebounds, five assists and just two turnovers. He was a team-best plus-31. And David Blatt outcoached Tom Thibodeau in Game 2. Blatt started Tristan Thompson over Mike Miller, as I projected. Thompson had only five points but played very good defense, had 12 rebounds and was plus-20. His activity against the pick-and-roll made a huge difference after Pau Gasol killed the Cavs on open shots off the pick-and-roll in Game 1. Miller played just 13 minutes off the bench and didn’t score. I doubt he plays at all in Game 3 as the Cavs welcome back J.R. Smith off suspension. Will he start or come off the bench? Iman Shumpert has played very well starting in his place the first two games. Shumpert had to leave Wednesday with a slight groin injury, but it’s not thought to be serious.

The Bulls trailed 13-2 at the start, and that was it. Gasol was pretty much shut down, attempting only eight shots and hitting three of them. He had 11 points and four rebounds and was minus-19. Jimmy Butler outplayed LeBron in Game 1 but was dominated in Game 2 as Butler was only 5-for-14 from the field and was a team-worst minus-26. Derrick Rose continued his struggles playing on just one day of rest, hitting 6-for-20 from the field. He didn’t attempt a single free throw again, meaning he is settling mostly for jumpers. “Our energy wasn’t the way it was in Game 1,” Bulls power forward Taj Gibson said. No kidding. I think it’s simply human nature to have a letdown after stealing Game 1 on the road. The question now is whether Thibodeau will make the correct alterations in Game 3 like Blatt did in Game 2.

Updated series line: Cavaliers -160, Bulls +140.

Key trends: The Cavs are 0-5 against the spread in their past five Friday games. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four following a win of at least 10 points. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The “over/under” has gone under in six of Chicago’s past seven after a loss. The under is 4-0 in Cleveland’s past four after a win.

Early lean: The Cavs team that showed up Wednesday would beat anyone. I’m sure the Bulls will play with much more energy at home, but I’ll take Cleveland. Go under.



Rockets at Clippers (-4, 217)

There was no delay on posting this Game 3 line, so obviously the oddsmakers fully expect Clippers star point guard Chris Paul to play in this one. I said in previewing Wednesday’s game that the Clips already had accomplished their goal of a split in Houston and there’s no way I’d play Paul in Game 2 if he wasn’t 100 percent. Clearly he wasn’t. Houston won 115-109 by outscoring L.A. by eight in the fourth quarter. James Harden scored 16 of his 32 points in that quarter. Dwight Howard finished with 24 points and 16 rebounds — yet despite big games from their two stars, the Rockets were in jeopardy of losing to the short-handed Clippers yet again. And here’s another guarantee I will make: Houston will not shoot 64 free throws in Game 3 as it did in Game 2, making 42 of them. A total of 64 attempts is a joke; the referees decided Game 2, not the players. I understand the home team generally gets the benefit of the calls, but the refs almost got caught up in that. OK, true, the Clippers did do some hack-a-Howard, but 64 attempts?

Blake Griffin had 34 points and 15 rebounds to lead the Clippers, but the Rockets focused their defense entirely on him in the second half when he had only eight. The Clippers only had three more points in the entire second half (44) than they had in the second quarter. They shot only 32 free throws overall by comparison. L.A. hit just 6-for-25 from 3-point range. Jamal Crawford, its only bench threat, was 1-for-8 from long range and 6-for-22 overall. Matt Barnes fouled out, two Clippers finished with five fouls, and four finished with four fouls.

Updated series line: Clippers -145, Rockets +125.

Key trends: The Rockets are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. L.A. is 1-8 ATS in its past nine at home. The over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ past five on the road. The over is 4-1 in the Clippers’ last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Early lean: If Paul plays, and I assume he will, take the Clippers (who better be getting some makeup calls). Go over the total.



Pro Basketball Trend Report

CLEVELAND (58 – 30) at CHICAGO (55 – 35) – 5/8/2015, 7:05 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 9-5 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-6 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

HOUSTON (61 – 28) at LA CLIPPERS (61 – 30) – 5/8/2015, 10:35 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CLIPPERS is 9-4 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 9-4 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
8 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

When Lebron James stumbles, ‘Under’ bettors win
By Jason Logan

Rarely does LeBron James lay an egg. But when the King does falter, it’s not his legions of loyal subjects laying the points with the Cleveland Cavaliers that suffer. It’s those betting the total.

LeBron was blasted by the media for his less-than-regal performance in Game 1 of the Cavaliers’ conference semifinal series with the Chicago Bulls Monday, with James finishing the game with only 19 points on 9-for-22 shooting. Cleveland lost 99-92 as a 4.5-point home favorite and fell Under the 195-point total.

That was just the 18th time in James’ 75 total games this season (including playoffs) that he’s scored fewer than 20 points. And in those 18 games, the Under has hit 14 times – a 78 percent winning clip for those betting on low-scoring action.

Sure, Cleveland does have a tough time covering the spread when James has an off night, but going 10-8 SU and 7-11 ATS is nothing for this talent-stacked team that faces sizable spreads on a nightly basis. Those numbers aren’t too far off from what the Cavs do when LeBron scores 30 or more points either: 15-6 SU, 11-10 ATS, 11-10 O/U.

The Under, however, remains the constant winner when LeBron mails it in, and it’s not just this first season back in Cleveland that this trend has shown up. Last year, when James was still with the Miami Heat, he posted 17 sub-20-point games, leaving the Heat to go 4-13 Over/Under in those contests. And going back to his first season in South Beach, LeBron’s teams are a collective 24-50-1 Over/Under when he records fewer than 20 points – a 67.5 percent winning rate for Under bettors.

Of course, LeBron doesn’t stay down for too long, as evidenced by his 33-point performance in Game 2’s 106-91 victory over the Bulls Wednesday night. That effort not only made for an easy ATS winner for Cleveland bettors laying the 5.5 points but also topped the 194.5-point total.

But the Over or Cleveland ATS isn’t automatic in LeBron’s games following those scoring duds. Cleveland is 14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS, and 7-11 Over/Under in games following a sub-20 effort from King James this season (did miss eight games due to a knee injury after scoring 17 points on Dec. 28).

It’s all in your head

Staying with “The Choosing One”, James was back to sporting his trademark headband in Game 2 Wednesday for the first time since shedding this accessory midway through a March 7 game against the Phoenix Suns.

During that two-month headband-less stretch, the Cavaliers went 17-5 SU, 12-10 ATS (7-4 ATS at home), and 11-11 Over/Under (James did sit out one game versus Boston). He averaged 22.8 points in that span, a drop from his season tally of 25.3 points per game.

ZZ Top

The once-popular Zig-Zag theory is back like Britney and Risky Business Ray-Bans in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. The betting system of playing on the team coming off a loss is a profitable 7-1 ATS in Round 2, with the Los Angeles Clippers’ cover against Houston Wednesday standing as the only blemish.

For the 2015 postseason, however, Zig-Zagging is just 22-19-1 ATS (19-23 SU), with the Western Conference showing a bit more value at 12-9-1 ATS.

Tracking trends

Last week, we unearthed some stunning trends involving underdogs in the East and favorites in the West, along with a startling Over/Under trend in physical playoff games. Here’s a look at how those trends have rounded out with the postseason on hold Thursday:

Eastern Conference underdogs are 14-10 ATS (10-14 SU) but East road teams continue to be a solid wager at 15-9 ATS (10-14 SU) – 62.5 percent winners. In the Western Conference, favorites were pretty much printing money for a while but that has evened out to 12-12-1 ATS (17-8 SU) with home sides going 13-11-1 ATS (16-9 SU).

As for games with 50 or more free-throw attempts, those have kept their value to the Over (since teams are scoring with the clock stopped), going 15-5-1 Over/Under – 75 percent Over winners. As for games with less than 50 foul shots, those have gone 7-21 Over/Under – a 75 percent cash cow for Under bettors.

MVP curse

Having the best player in the league on your team doesn’t mean you’re a shoe-in for the NBA title. In fact, going back to 2000, the winner of the regular season MVP has only gone on to win the NBA title just four times: LeBron James (2012, 2013), Tim Duncan (2003), and Shaquille O’Neal (2000). And of those 15 MVPs, just six have made to the Finals: Kobe Bryant (2007), Allen Iverson (2001).

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry was awarded the NBA MVP before Game 2 of the Western Conference semifinal matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday, then went on to lose 97-90 as 10.5-point favorites. A sign of things to come? I know Bookmakers in Las Vegas and online would like to see Curry and the Warriors knocked out of contention with Golden State holding the most liability in the NBA futures market. Chief Curry and the Warriors are currently -110 favorites to win the title.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB Betting Cheat Sheet: Harvey helping Mets stay ‘under’ the totals
By Doc Sports

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for this weekend’s major-league schedule:

The Amazin’ Mets

Thanks to stellar work on the mound, the New York Mets (18-10) are both atop the National League East and regularly staying under the total. They are 0-5 O/U in their last five games. Matt Harvey (2.41 ERA) and Bartolo Colon (2.90 ERA) are tied for the major-league lead in wins (five) with just two other pitchers. Harvey is taking the mound again on Friday against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Dallas Buyers Club

Houston Astros’ starter Dallas Keuchel is 3-0 with a miniscule 0.80 ERA on the season. All six of his starts have been quality. The 27-year-old southpaw’s worst start featured two runs on seven innings back on April 12 at Texas. Keuchel, who will pitch on Saturday at the Los Angeles Angels, has given up two runs in his last 31 innings.

You’re gone!

The Cincinnati Reds could be without their first baseman for a game or two. Joey Votto was ejected from Wednesday’s contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates after a post-strikeout argument during which he made contact with umpire Chris Conroy. Stay tuned for news regarding an inevitable suspension.

Pitching Notes

Like Houston’s Keuchel, Nick Martinez of the Texas Rangers is a quality-start machine. All five of his outings in 2015 have been of that variety. Martinez is 2-0 with a 0.84 ERA, although he has taken three straight no-decisions due to a lack of run support. The 24-year-old righty will be back in action on Thursday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have some struggling pitchers going into their upcoming series against the high-powered San Diego Padres. Thursday starter Rubby De La Rosa is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA. Jeremy Hellickson, who will climb the bump on Friday, is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA. In 10 combined starts they have lasted at least seven innings only once. San Diego leads the NL with 140 runs scored and is 17-11-1 O/U.

Hitting Notes

Toronto Blue Jays’ catcher Russell Martin is a ridiculous 12-for-19 in his last five games, with a trio of three-hit performances. In just those five his season average has soared from .185 to .286. Four of those 12 hits have been home runs. The Blue Jays (16-12-2 O/U) have crossed the plate a MLB-leading 155 times.
Dee Gordon, Martin Prado, and Ichiro Suzuki have been coming up big for the Miami Marlins of late. Gordon (.430, 12 SB) is on an 11-game hitting streak. Prado (.295, 14 RBI) has hit safely in six straight. Ichiro (.291) has extended his hitting streak to seven games. The Marlins are 16-10-2 O/U (3-1-1 O/U in their last five).

Totals Streak

Oakland Athletics (21-7-1 O/U): The A’s are the most lucrative O/U team in baseball by a wide margin and they are an incredible 10-1-1 O/U in their last 12 games. Toronto is the only other team that has both scored and given up at least 135 runs this season.

Injury Notes

Boston Red Sox left fielder Hanley Ramirez (.283, 10 HR, 22 RBI) left Monday’s game against Tampa Bay with a shoulder injury and has not yet returned. He is expected to resume taking swings on Thursday and could be available for this weekend’s series against Toronto if all goes well. Boston is 1-6 O/U in its last seven overall.

The Padres have been dealing with multiple injuries of late. Starter Brandon Morrow (shoulder) went on the disabled list last weekend. Reliever Joaquin Benoit (arm) has appeared just once since April 27. Starter Josh Johnson (elbow) has not pitched this season and experienced soreness following a simulated game earlier this week. As for some good news, first baseman Yonder Alonso (back) returned from a two-game absence by going 2-for-4 on Wednesday while raising his average to .341.

Umpire Note

The Minnesota Twins are 0-5 in their last five games with Mike Everitt behind home plate. Everitt will be calling balls and strikes when the Twins host the Oakland A’s Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Friday, May 8, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Will we see a four-homer game by player this season? It’s more rare than a perfect game. It has happened only four times this century, last on May 8, 2012, by the Rangers’ Josh Hamilton. I bring this up because Washington’s Bryce Harper homered in his first three at-bats on Wednesday, each one further than the previous. Each of the home runs came on the second pitch of the at-bat off the Marlins’ Tom Koehler. With a chance for history, Harper finished with an RBI groundout. He has six multi-homer games in 1,614 career plate appearances. Maybe he can go back-to-back with three-homer games Friday (Nats were off Thursday)? That would be pretty incredible.

Braves at Nationals (-185, 7.5)

Harper entered Wednesday’s game just 1-for-17 in May but became the youngest player (22 years, 202 days) since 1970 with a three-homer game since Carney Lansford in 1979. Harper’s first few at-bats Friday will be against Braves lefty Eric Stults (1-2, 4.91). He comes off his worst outing of the season by far, allowing six runs and 11 hits over seven innings against Cincinnati. The start before that, he allowed two runs and four hits over 6.1 innings vs. Washington. Stults has allowed five homers in 29.1 innings. Harper has a single in five at-bats off him. Danny Espinosa is 5-for-9 with a double and a solo homer. Fellow lefty Gio Gonzalez (2-2, 3.86) starts for the Nats. He was great last time out, shutting out the Mets over seven innings on six hits, striking out nine. He generally has either been spectacular or shaky this season. Andrelton Simmons is 6-for-18 with two homers and five RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Braves are 4-1 in their past five against a left-hander. They are 1-8 in their past nine after a win. Washington is 5-0 in Gonzalez’s past five at home. Washington is 0-8 in Gonzalez’s past eight vs. Atlanta. The “over/under” has gone under in four of the past five.

Early lean: Take the Braves at -135 on the runline. Go over.



Reds at White Sox (-108, 9)

It’s possible you won’t see Reds star Joey Votto in this game. I say that because I’m not sure any punishment from the league office would come before Cincinnati’s game on Thursday. Votto was ejected from Wednesday’s game against Pittsburgh after spiking his helmet and then bumped the umpire while arguing. That’s going to get him something, although Votto can play during an appeal if he goes that route. It’s veteran right-hander Jason Marquis (3-1, 5.22) for the Reds in this interleague series opener. He allowed three runs and five hits over 6.1 innings vs. Atlanta last time out. Adam LaRoche has seen him more than any White Sox, going 11-for-38 with three homers. Hector Noesi (0-3, 6.75) starts for Chicago and this may be his last start for a while if it’s not a good one. Noesi has yet to last more than 5.2 innings. Very few Reds have seen him. Votto is 1-for-1.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-9 in their past 10 Friday games. The Sox are 5-1 in Noesi’s past six in Game 1 of a series. The under is 8-3 in his past 11 at home.

Early lean: White Sox and over.



Red Sox at Blue Jays (-123, 9)

Will the Sox get back outfielder Hanley Ramirez in this one? He left Monday’s game early with a shoulder injury but has avoided the disabled list. Ramirez is set to take some swings on Thursday, and if he feels fine then he probably will be back in there. Aaron Sanchez (2-2, 4.62) is on the mound for the Jays. He walked six over 5.2 innings and gave up two runs to Cleveland last time out but got the win. He has had control issues all season. Sanchez pitched at Boston on April 27 and allowed four runs and five hits in 5.2 innings. Pablo Sandoval is 2-for-2 with a homer and three RBIs off him. Ramirez is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts. Struggling Wade Miley (1-3, 7.15) goes for Boston, his first start against the Jays. Edwin Encarnacion is 2-for-2 with a double off Miley.

Key trends: Boston is 7-2 in its past nine series openers. The Jays are 7-1 in their past eight at home vs. lefties. The over is 7-1 in Toronto’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Jays and over.



Astros at Angels (-142, 8)

I touched on Houston possibly not having outfielder George Springer for a while in Thursday’s line report, and indeed the team put him on the seven-day concussion disabled list after the outfielder hurt himself running into the right field wall at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday. Houston starts Roberto Hernandez (1-2, 4.25) on the mound, the weak link of the rotation. He faced the Angels on April 17 and gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision. Mike Trout is 4-for-11 with three homers and four RBIs off him. The Angels’ Jered Weaver (0-4, 6.29) is obviously a shell of his former All-Star self these days as he just has no velocity left. One of his better starts of the season was April 17 in Houston opposite Hernandez, allowing two runs over six innings. Jason Castro is 4-for-15 with two homers and a double off him.

Key trends: Houston is 4-1 in its past five Friday games. L.A. is 1-7 in Weaver’s past eight starts. The under is 3-0-1 in Weaver’s past four against Houston.

Early lean: Astros and over.



Orioles at Yankees (-125, 8.5)

Baltimore was expecting to activate shortstop J.J. Hardy for Thursday’s series opener at the
Yankees. He is coming off shoulder surgery. Hardy won Gold Gloves in 2012-13 and hit a combined 47 homers those seasons. He slipped a bit last year but is still one of the better all-around shortstops in the game. Hardy will face Yankees starter Adam Warren (2-1, 4.78). He has yet to last more than 5.2 innings. Last year he was 0-2 with a 19.29 ERA in six relief appearances against the Yankees. Hardy is 3-for-5 with a double and three RBIs off him. Miguel Gonzalez (3-1, 2.59) gets the call for the Birds. He beat the Yankees on April 14, allowing a run and four hits over seven innings, striking out 10. Carlos Beltran is 4-for-6 with two doubles and a solo homer against Gonzalez.

Key trends: The Orioles have lost five straight on Friday. New York is 5-1 in its past six in Game 2 of a series. The over is 5-1 in the past six meetings (entering Thursday).

Early lean: Orioles and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cardinals undefeated in Wacha’s past seven starts
Justin Hartling

Michael Wacha has taken a huge leap forward for the St. Louis Cardinals, which has the Red Birds looking for their eighth consecutive wins with the rightie on the mound. In Wacha’s past seven starts he has only allowed 1.6 runs per game, while allowing one or less four times.

This season has seen Wacha post a 4-0 record with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.

St. Louis visits the Pittsburgh Pirates Friday.

 

[superbeets]

English Championship TODAY 19:45

Brentford

v

Middlesbro

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		13/8	23/10	19/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BRENTFORD	RECENT FORM
HDADALHDAWHW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 4 0 - 1 2 - 1	ALHWHWAWALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Brentford have failed to win 11 of 23 home games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Brentford come into this Championship playoff having lost only one of their last nine games. However, the Bees did draw four of those matches and lost both meetings with a resilient Middlesbrough side this term, failing to score in either fixture. A tight first-leg draw looks the value call.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Jonathan Moss STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

French Division 1 TODAY 19:30

Paris St-G.

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Guingamp

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTX		1/7	7	20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT PARIS ST-G.	RECENT FORM
HLAWALHWHWAW​ Most recent​	2 - 0 2 - 0 2 - 0 5 - 0	HLALALHDAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: PSG have won 14 and drawn the other four of their last 18 home league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Paris St-Germain have bounced back from Champions League heartache with three routine wins and are looking almost unstoppable domestically. They’ve won six in a row in the league, scoring 20 goals in the process, and they’ve won their last four home games against Guingamp without conceding a single goal.

RECOMMENDATION: PSG-PSG double result
1

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga 1 TODAY 19:30

Hamburg

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Freiburg

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN		23/20	12/5	12/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HAMBURG	RECENT FORM
HLALHLALHWAW​ Most recent​	1 - 1 0 - 1 1 - 3 0 - 2	HWALADHLADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hamburg have failed to score in 18 league games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: This is an absolute humdinger at the bottom of the Bundesliga with former European giants Hamburg scrapping for their lives. They have won each of their last two games, but ten of their 15 home games have featured under 2.5 goals, while Freiburg’s 15 away matches have produced just 35 goals.

RECOMMENDATION: Hamburg to win 1-0

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Premiership TODAY 19:45

Motherwell

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Kilmarnock

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		6/5	12/5	11/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MOTHERWELL	RECENT FORM
HWAWHWALALHD​ Most recent​	1 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 2	ALHLHLALALHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Kilmarnock have lost their last six Scottish Premiership matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Motherwell have got three matches to avoid the playoffs and while they have six points to make up on Ross County, they should get three of those against Kilmarnock. Well are unbeaten in their last five matches at Fir Park and the Kilmarnock defence has been in dismal form, conceding at least twice in each of their last six league outings.

RECOMMENDATION: Motherwell
2


REFEREE: William Collum STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Championship Sa 9May 12:15

Ipswich

v

Norwich

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		9/4	23/10	7/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT IPSWICH	RECENT FORM
ALHWHWADHWAL​ Most recent​	0 - 1 1 - 5 3 - 2 2 - 1	HWAWAWHLADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ipswich have scored in all 12 league games since their 2-0 defeat at Norwich in March

EXPERT VERDICT: Ipswich have lost only three times at home all season and don’t concede many goals, with only Middlesbrough being more miserly on their own patch. The Tractor Boys lost both Championship meetings with Norwich during the regular campaign but they have improved recently.

RECOMMENDATION: Ipswich
1


REFEREE: Anthony Taylor STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Premier Sa 9May 12:45

Everton

v

Sunderland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		4/5	11/4	4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EVERTON	RECENT FORM
AWHWADHWHWAL​ Most recent​	0 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 0 1 - 1	HLALHWHLADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Everton have won their last four home games to nil

EXPERT VERDICT: Sunderland picked up a vital win over Southampton last weekend but they remain in the bottom three and face a dreadful run-in. A trip to Goodison Park is one of the tougher games as Everton’s narrow loss to Aston Villa was merely a blip in a fantastic run that saw them thrash Manchester United 3-0 a fortnight ago.

RECOMMENDATION: Everton
2


REFEREE: Lee Probert STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Capitals (45-26) at Rangers (53-22)

Date: May 08, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

During the first round, close games tilted in favor of the New York Rangers. Against Braden Holtby and the Washington Capitals, they've gone the other way.

The Presidents' Trophy winners are in a familiar spot down 3-1 in the second round, but can lean on their recent history and home ice Friday night when the series shifts back to Madison Square Garden.

Dating to last season, New York has played in an NHL-record 11 consecutive playoff games decided by one goal. The Rangers found themselves on the right side of four 2-1 contests in the first round against Pittsburgh, but haven't been so fortunate against the Capitals.

Andre Burakovsky scored two goals Wednesday while Holtby stopped 28 shots and stoned Carl Hagelin on a third-period penalty shot in the Capitals' 2-1 win.

"We depend on everyone, and tonight I thought everyone was committed," Holtby said. "We're going to expect that and better for (Game 5)."

Holtby has been the key. He gave up three goals in Game 1 against the New York Islanders and missed Game 2 with an illness, but has since won six of his nine starts with a .957 save percentage.

He owns a .978 save percentage in Washington's three wins this series, only faltering in a Game 2 loss in New York - a fact the Rangers can take solace in as they head home. Holtby yielded a goal to Chris Kreider 38 seconds into the first period and ultimately lost 3-2.

The Rangers had similar scoring troubles in last season's second round. They were shut out twice and totaled two goals over a three-game skid that put them behind 3-1 against Pittsburgh, but rebounded with a five-goal outburst in Game 5 before winning the series in seven games.

"It's been done before so it's not like it's impossible," Martin St. Louis told the Rangers' official website. "It's one game at a time."

Derick Brassard proved vital during that run with three goals over the three wins, and has two of New York's five goals in this series. He's picked up the slack left by Rick Nash, who has only one goal - none against the Capitals - after leading the team with 42 during the season.

"It's real frustrating," Nash said. "We know what it takes. It's a matter right now of worrying about one game, one period of the next one and focusing on that."

Conversely, Washington has gotten production up and down the roster in the postseason. Ovechkin has followed his 53-goal season with four goals and four assists, Joel Ward scored the winner in Game 1 against the Rangers and Jay Beagle netted the Capitals' only goal in Game 3.

Washington's younger core has also been involved. The 20-year-old Burakovsky scored for the first time since February on Wednesday and fellow rookie Evgeny Kuznetsov has four goals, including the Game 7 winner against the Islanders.

"We are not a two- or three-man team," coach Barry Trotz said. "It's an effort of 20 individuals, and the strength is in the numbers, the strength is in the team. Guys recognize that different contributions have to come from different guys all the time.

"We've talked about creating a culture where we can win in different ways with different people. To this point, we've done that all year and hopefully we can continue to do it.

Henrik Lundqvist has won six of his last seven home playoff starts against the Capitals behind a .932 save percentage.

Ovechkin, however, has totaled six goals while scoring in five straight visits to MSG.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Game of the Day: Thursday's NHL Playoff matchups

Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning (Off, Off)

Lightning lead series 3-0

The Tampa Bay Lightning have the visiting Montreal Canadiens down and can deliver the knockout punch when the teams square off Thursday in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semifinal series. The Lightning took a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven matchup with a last-second goal in Wednesday's Game 3 and look to avenge a sweep by Montreal in last year's postseason with one of their own.

Tyler Johnson scored with 1.1 seconds remaining in regulation for Tampa Bay, which has won all eight meetings with the Atlantic Division-rival Canadiens this season. It was a crushing blow for Montreal, which dominated much of the contest and now has less than 24 hours to regroup and avoid elimination. "We got lucky tonight," Lightning defenseman Anton Stralman admitted after his team was outshot 31-19. Montreal faces the sobering task of trying to become only the fifth team in league history to come back and win a series after dropping the first three games.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBCSN, CBC, TVA

LINE HISTORY: This line is presently off the board.

INJURY REPORT: Canadiens - D Nathan Beaulieu (Out indefinitely, upper body). Lightning - C Cedric Paquette (Questionable, undisclosed).

ABOUT THE CANADIENS: Montreal held the Lightning without a shot for 19 minutes and appeared poised to start a comeback when Brendan Gallagher celebrated his 23rd birthday by scoring the tying goal midway through the third period. The Canadiens were unable to get the go-ahead tally despite registering 15 third-period shots and have been limited to four tallies through the first three games of the series after being outscored 21-8 in the five regular-season meetings. Montreal's power play failed on both attempts to fall to 1-for-28 in the postseason.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Johnson, who had 29 goals and 72 points in the regular season, continued his sensational postseason with his league-best eighth tally, burying a perfect feed on the doorstep from defenseman Victor Hedman. "You're almost in disbelief, how did that happen? Like pulling a rabbit out of your hat," said captain Steven Stamkos, who added that (goaltender Ben) "Bishop was THE reason we won the game." Bishop missed last year's playoff sweep versus Montreal due to injury but has been brilliant in the series, turning aside 100-of-104 shots.

TRENDS:

* Canadiens are 0-8 in the last eight meetings.
* Canadiens are 1-5 in their last six overall.
* Lightning are 5-0 in their last five overall.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Lightning last six home games.

CONSENSUS: N/A


Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild (-119, 5)

Blackhawks lead series 3-0

The Chicago Blackhawks attempt to complete their first sweep of a playoff series in five years when they visit the Minnesota Wild for Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal matchup on Thursday. After needing six games to get past Nashville in the first round, Chicago is on the verge of eliminating Minnesota in the minimum amount of contests required and advancing to the conference final for the fifth time in seven postseasons.

The Blackhawks have not swept a series since 2010, when it accomplished the feat against San Jose in the conference final before defeating Philadelphia to capture the fourth Stanley Cup championship in franchise history. Chicago scored four goals against the Wild in each of the first two games but needed only one on Tuesday as Corey Crawford made 30 saves en route to his fourth career postseason shutout. Patrick Kane netted the lone tally in Game 3, giving him four in the series - the same amount as the entire Minnesota team. The Wild have been swept just once in their brief history, losing four straight to the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim in the 2003 conference final.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN, RSN, TVA2

LINE HISTORY: The Wild opened -119.

INJURY REPORT: Blackhawks - LW Kris Versteeg (Probable, lower body). Wild - RW Justin Fontaine (Questionable, lower body), RW Chris Stewart (Questionable, upper body).

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS: Kane continued his torrid pace Tuesday, extending his goal-scoring streak to four games while notching at least one point for the eighth time in nine playoff contests. The 26-year-old Buffalo native has emerged as a leading candidate for his second career Conn Smythe Trophy, as he's collected 11 points in the postseason - third in the league behind Anaheim teammates Corey Perry (14) and Ryan Getzlaf (12) entering Wednesday - after missing more than 1 1/2 months with a broken clavicle. "I've had some good looks in this series where guys have gotten me good opportunities to some clear shots on net, and I've been fortunate enough to see them go in," said Kane, who believes he still can improve his play. "I think there (are) a lot of things (I) can do better, whether it's defensively or making strong plays with the puck or getting the puck more to create a little more."

ABOUT THE WILD: Despite playing its best game of the series, Minnesota was unable to get on the scoreboard and now finds itself one loss away from being knocked out of the playoffs by Chicago for a third consecutive year. The club now looks to become the fifth team in NHL history - and third in six postseasons - to overcome a 3-0 series deficit. "We just have to look at it as game by game now," forward Charlie Coyle said. "It's up to us. We're still breathing. We're still alive here. And it's just up to us and get that next one."

TRENDS:

* Blackhawks are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
* Blackhawks are 4-0 in their last four overall.
* Wild are 0-5 in their last five Conference Semifinals games.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota.

CONSENSUS: This game is split 50/50.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Washington held Rangers to one goal in winning Games 3-4; under is 3-0-1 this series. Caps won 78 of 125 faceoffs last two games. Under is 7-1-1 in Ranger playoff games, 7-2-2 in Washington's games. Capitals are 22-23 killing penalties in playoffs; Rangers are 1-9 on power play this series. Caps won six of last eight games overall. Rangers outshot Washington 51-26 in first period in series, then were outshot 87-75 in periods 2-3. New York has to win or series is over- they're 3-2 in last five games at home, Washington is 2-3 in last five on the road.

Home side won 11 of last 13 Calgary-Anaheim games, with Ducks 2-4 in last six games played in Saddledome- eight of last 11 series games went over. Calgary survived bad call that disallowed tying goal, tied game anyway with 0:19 left to play, then sent fans home happy 4:24 into OT with winning goal. Ducks are now 6-1 in playoffs, won ten of last 13 games overall- they won three of last four road games, but how will they react after first playoff loss? Both sides had only 21 shots in Game 3, even with Calgary having six power plays. Flames are 1-12 on power play in series, Anaheim is 2-10.

Home teams are 9-6 in this round of playoffs; under is 7-6-2.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's NBA Playoff Essentials
By Tony Mejia

Cavaliers at Bulls (-2/196) – 8:05 PM EST – ESPN

East Semis Game 3 – Series tied 1-1

LeBron James vowed to be more aggressive in Game 2 and wound up scoring 33 points on 29 shots. Outside of bringing back the headband, it was similar to the Celtics series in that he dropped passive facilitator act in Game 2 there, too, imposing his will on the contest. Attack mode must continue as the Cavs face their biggest challenge of the postseason, a road game likely to be more physical and hostile than anything they saw in Boston, and, yes, we all saw what happened in that sweep-clincher. J.R. Smith returns from a two-game suspension after a retaliatory back-handed punch that floored Celtics forward Jae Crowder in that game. He’s certainly been missed, since Matthew Dellavedova has had to play more minutes than expected and Mike Miller, James Jones and Shawn Marion were each dusted off to provide minutes on the wing. Whether he hits the ground running or not will be a key factor in Game 3, especially if Iman Shumpert is limited by his groin injury or isn’t able to play. Given all the uncertainty as the Cavs continue to work short-handed without Kevin Love, it’s no surprise the Cavs are an underdog for the first time this postseason.

Kevin Rogers writes that “the Cavaliers owned a 3-2 SU/ATS record as a road underdog this season with LeBron in the lineup, which includes a 114-108 overtime victory at Chicago back on Halloween night. Since the 2011 NBA Finals, James is 3-8 SU and 3-7-1 ATS when his team is in the away ‘dog role, as his Heat squad compiled a 1-3 SU/ATS record as a ‘dog in last season’s playoffs.” Kyrie Irving is 19-for-21 from the free-throw line in the series, averaging 25.5 points despite shooting just 2-for-8 from 3-point range. Bulls defenders are having a hard time keeping him in front of them, so he can take some pressure off James by being aggressive. The Cavs opened -215 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag., were placed at even odds alongside the Bulls before Game 2 and are now back as the favorite (-160). Cleveland is 4-2 ATS this postseason and broke a streak of four consecutive unders when Jones connected on a 3-pointer for Wednesday night’s final points.

The Bulls have played two different game thus far in the series, dominating the opener by being the aggressor at both ends and standing little chance in Game 2 after barely showing up. Some may attribute that to being satisfied with a split at Quicken Loans Arena that swiped homecourt advantage, but there’s also a theory that one day’s rest between games simply isn’t enough for a team that’s still banged up. Chicago is 4-0 SU/ATS with multiple days to prepare thus far this postseason. Put in the situation it faces today, its record is 1-3 SU/ATS with three consecutive setbacks. Derrick Rose suffered a shoulder stinger in Game 2 but professes to be fine on that front. His knees are always the greater concern, so we’ll see whether he can improve on the 30 percent (6-for-20) he shot on Wednesday. He was 5-for-20 in Game 5 against Milwaukee the last time the Bulls took the floor at home, which is part of another trend Rogers points out: “The Bulls haven’t been money in the bank at the United Center in the playoffs, posting a 2-7 SU/ATS record since 2013, with the two victories coming against Milwaukee in this year’s opening round.”

Most Improved Player winner Jimmy Butler has been the Bulls most effective piece in these playoffs and will be recognized pre-game and awarded his hardware. He’ll then tangle with James, who was able to get to his spots and use his bigger frame to bully him in the paint in Game 2. Butler is averaging 19 points and shooting 4-for-13 from 3-point range in the series, but needs to step it up further if the Bulls are going to pull this upset. Pau Gasol was a weapon on pick-and-pops and open jumpers in Game 1, finishing 10-for-16, but Cleveland made running bodies at him a priority on Wednesday and limited him to 11 points on 4-for-13 shooting. He was also beaten badly to loose balls and offensive rebounds by the more athletic Tristan Thompson, so he’ll have to play with much more energy. Joakim Noah is also struggling and playing hurt, unable to make his usual contributions thus far. Chicago initially was +185 to pull the upset in this series, got even after the Game 1 win and are now available at +140. Unders had prevailed in four consecutive Bulls games prior to the Game 2 over.


Rockets at Clippers (-4/217) – 10:35 PM EST – ESPN

West Semis Game 3 – Series tied 1-1

After a disappointing Game 1 loss to a Clippers team missing Chris Paul and playing less than 48 hours after surviving the Spurs, the Rockets recovered in Game 2 to even things up. Since Paul was absent again, the fact the game hung in the balance until the fourth quarter should be considered disconcerting since they were playing at home, turned it over sloppily for a second straight game and missed free-throws and defensive assignments by the bushel. Can Houston get comfortable? Rogers went back and looked at its last road game against the Clips as part of his research: “Back in mid-March, Houston overcame an early 10-point deficit to hold off Los Angeles 100-98 as five-point underdogs. Houston won in spite of shooting 37% from the floor, including a 7-of-30 effort from three-point range. What saved the Rockets in that victory was James Harden knocking down 17-of-18 free throws, while Chris Paul missed 14 shots from the floor. The Rockets have been a solid road underdog play since 2013, covering six straight in this role, including in a Game 3 win in the opening round at Dallas.”

The Rockets were the second-best road team in the West behind Golden State, tying the Clips at 26-15, and went 1-1 in Dallas during the first round, winning the critical Game 3 of that series. James Harden scored 42 points to pull out that victory, shooting a scorching 15-for-24, so it stands to reason he’ll be eager to start cooking early. He’s averaging 9.5 assists against L.A. thus far, but may look to get himself going early at Staples. Harden is 20-for-21 from the free-throw line in the series and has taken 73 free-throws through his seven playoff games. The Rockets took 64 FTs as a team in Game 2, with Dwight Howard finishing 8-for-21. Considering they boo him in L.A. for sport, count on Doc Rivers playing Hack-a-Dwight often in the hopes the variable of a hostile crowd will rattle him even further. Howard has been a force on the defensive end, averaging 4.5 blocks in addition to 13 rebounds. Houston lacks a rim protector when he’s off the floor, leaving its suspect defense further exposed. It’s imperative he plays smart and avoids foul trouble. UCLA product Trevor Ariza comes off a 15-point, 13-rebound output on Wednesday night and has been far more productive against the Clippers than he was against Dallas, which held him to 29 percent shooting. The Rockets are +150 at Sportsbook.ag. after having lost homecourt. Five of Houston’s seven playoff games have gone over the posted total, and the over is 10-3 in its games dating back to the end of the regular season.

Paul went through a workout on Thursday and is considered questionable with a significantly strained left hamstring. Head coach Doc Rivers doesn’t anticipate knowing whether his All-Star point guard will be available until close to game-time. Paul was brilliant in defeating San Antonio, shooting over 51 percent from the field, averaging 22.7 points and 7.9 assists, but wasn’t as successful against the Rockets, shooting under 37 percent from the field. Of course, the now-injured Patrick Beverley played in two of those games, but Howard’s size does discourage Paul from attacking the rim. If he can’t go, Austin Rivers and Lester Hudson will continue to play key roles alongside shooters J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford. After Blake Griffin dominated the first half of Game 2 with 26 points, he was held to just 8 points in the second as the Rockets made a concerted effort to get the ball out of his hands. He’s averaging 30 points, 14.5 rebounds and 8.5 assists thus far, continuing his run as one of the most productive performers of these playoffs. Whether Paul plays or not, he’ll have to confidently impose his will on the offensive end, limiting turnovers and attacking the rim when matched with smaller defenders. DeAndre Jordan got into early foul trouble in Game 2, allowing the Rockets to get off to a quick start. He was perfect from the floor (6-for-6) and actually made 4-of-6 FTs, but played just 25 minutes, the least he’s played in a game since Feb. 21. L.A. can’t afford for him to be watching from the bench for that long. Sportsbook.ag. has installed the Clippers as -170 chalk for the series entering Game 3. Five of L.A.’s last six games have gone over the posted total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Clippers winning at home, failing to cover
Justin Hartling

The LA Clippers are a solid 6-3 straight up in their past nine at home, but have only covered on one of those occasions.

Those nine games at the Staples Center have seen the Clippers favored in each instance, with an average spread of -7. The Clip Show has posted a scoring margin of +3.5 during those nine games, meaning they are failing to cover by 3.5 points.

LA is currently -4.5 when they host the Houston Rockets Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Wall, Washington - Doub Sat

Wall has missed the last two games due to five non-displaced fractures in left wrist and hand. He is unlikely to return for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Hawks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cavs closing gap with Warriors in title odds
Andrew Caley

After the Cleveland Cavaliers Game 2 win in their Eastern Conference semi final, their odds to win the NBA Championship have improved, according to Sportsbook.ag.

The Cavs were moved from +500 to +340 and closed the gap with the Golden State Warriors, who moved from -150 to -110.

Thursday is an off day for the NBA playoffs with the action resuming Friday with a pair of Game 3's. Cleveland travels to Chicago and the Houston Rockets take on the Clippers in Los Angeles.