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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

What Bettors Need To Know: Rangers at Lightning

New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning (-126, 5)

Lightning lead series 2-1

The New York Rangers have been taken out of their game and, as a result, are in danger of falling behind 3-1 for the second consecutive postseason series. The visiting Rangers will attempt to slow down the high-flying Tampa Bay Lightning and square the series when the teams clash in Friday's Game 4 of the Eastern Conference final.

The Lightning have roared back from a series-opening loss by pumping in 12 goals in back-to-back wins, taking Game 3 on Nikita Kucherov's game-winning tally in overtime. "I think we've got a pretty quick team, and they have a quick team," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said. "... I don't know how it looks on TV, but when you're standing there, it is, pardon the pun, it is lightning fast." A beleaguered Henrik Lundqvist, the winningest goaltender in franchise history, has surrendered at least six goals on six occasions this season - and the Lightning have victimized him on the last four occasions. “Sometimes as a team, we can be a little bit better, but also I have to be better,” Lundqvist said. “We’re not going to win if I give up six goals.”

LINE HISTORY: The Lightning opened between -125 and -130 at online books with a total of 5.

INJURY REPORT: Rangers - LW Mats Zuccarello (Ques-Head) Lightning - D Matt Carle (Ques-Undisclosed)

ABOUT THE RANGERS: New York did a lot of good things in Game 3 - bolting to a 2-0 lead, erasing a two-goal deficit and converting twice on the power play - but the Presidents' Trophy winners need to contain an offense that produced an NHL-best 262 goals in the regular season. “We don’t want to play this way, a track-meet game, back-and-forth,” Rangers defenseman Dan Girardi said. “They’re fast, we’re fast, but I think we want to make it a little more tight-checking.” Jesper Fast, elevated to the No. 2 line alongside Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider, provided a spark with a pair of goals Wednesday - the first multi-goal game by a New York rookie since since Brandon Dubinsky in the 2008 Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING: Captain Steven Stamkos has emerged from his slump with four goals in five games and linemate Alex Killorn has tallied three times in the past two contests, but the biggest headache for the Rangers remains the "Triplets." The line of Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Kucherov has been unstoppable, combining for 25 of the Tampa Bay's 47 postseason goals and seven tallies and seven assists in the past two contests alone. "They've impressed me for a long time and now they're impressing the world," said Cooper of the unit that includes an undrafted free agent in Johnson (a league-best 12 goals in the postseason) and a seventh-round draft pick in Palat (four goals in his last four games).

TRENDS:

*Lightning are 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
*Rangers are 28-10 in their last 38 road games.
*Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Under is 7-3-1 in Lightning last 11 games following a win.

CONSENSUS: 53.52 percent are backing the Lightning with 59 percent on the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Cavaliers at Hawks

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks (-2, 197)

Cavs lead series 1-0

Atlanta forward DeMarre Carroll is questionable for Friday when the Hawks try to rebound from a series-opening loss to the visiting Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals. Carroll injured his left knee late in the opener when he landed awkwardly and an MRI exam performed Thursday determined he suffered a bruised bone.

There were fears Carroll suffered a major injury but the examination ruled out structural, ligament and cartilage damage so he is expected to return to play in the series. If Carroll can’t play on Friday, guard Kent Bazemore is expected to move into the starting lineup and that would represent a huge dropoff from Carroll, who is considered Atlanta’s top defender. Cleveland won the opener 97-89 and shooting guard J.R. Smith was tremendous and set a franchise postseason record with eight 3-pointers while scoring 28 points. “Once I start shooting,” Smith told reporters, “everybody keeps telling me to keep shooting.”

LINE HISTORY: The Hawks opened as 1-point dogs but are 2-point road faves. The total opened 198.5 and is down to 197.

INJURY REPORT: Cavs - G Kyrie Irving (Probable, knee), F LeBron James (Probable, ankle). Hawks - F DeMarre Carroll (Questionable, knee).

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: While Smith’s marksmanship was superb, coach David Blatt was just as pleased with his defense and rebounding. “I’d love to know when the last time a guy made eight 3s and got eight rebounds,” Blatt said in his postgame press conference. “I don’t remember but I’m sure it’s happened. That’s pretty unusual.” Forward LeBron James was unstoppable for the most part with 31 points, eight rebounds and six assists and posted his 52nd playoff performance of at least 30 points, five rebounds and five assists, breaking the record set by Michael Jordan.

ABOUT THE HAWKS: Losing the series opener at home and giving up homecourt advantage was a blow to Atlanta and the players are fully aware that heading to Cleveland in a 0-2 hole would be a highly undesirable position. “Just got to come out fighting and come out ready to play with a lot of intensity,” point guard Jeff Teague told reporters. “It’s going to be a war the next couple of games. We know that. So it’s a must-win for us next game with our backs against the wall.” Teague had a solid opener with 27 points while power forward Paul Millsap (13 points on 3-of-11 shooting) and backup point guard Dennis Schroder (six points on 2-of-10) had poor outings.

TRENDS:

*Cavaliers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
*Hawks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a S.U. loss.
*Under is 6-1 in Cavaliers last 7 road games.
*Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 vs. NBA Central.

CONSENSUS: 53.27 percent are backing the Cavs with 62.7 percent on the under.

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Championship Sa 23May 12:00

Hibernian

v

Rangers

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		11/10	12/5	12/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HIBERNIAN	RECENT FORM
HWNLAWHWAWAL​ Most recent​	0 - 2 4 - 0 0 - 2 0 - 2	AWHDADAWHDHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hibernian have won seven of their last 11 Championship home fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Rangers manager Stuart McCall admitted his side were flattered by the 2-0 victory in the first leg of their Premiership playoff clash with Hibernian and has warned the tie is far from over. Hibs, who have played less football in recent weeks, can respond with a win but it may not be enough to seal an aggregate success.

RECOMMENDATION: Hibernian
1


REFEREE: John Beaton STADIUM: Easter Road

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga 1 Sa 23May 14:30

Hamburg

v

Schalke

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		7/5	13/5	9/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HAMBURG	RECENT FORM
HLALHWAWHDAL​ Most recent​	0 - 3 3 - 1 1 - 2 2 - 1	HDADALHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hamburg have kept one clean sheet in their last ten home fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Hamburg have never been relegated from the Bundesliga but their fate could be sealed by a defeat at home to Schalke. Victory for the hosts would open up the possibility of survival or a place in the relegation/promotion playoff but they can take nothing for granted against the Royal Blues, who will be keen to hold on to fifth place.

RECOMMENDATION: Schalke
1

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A Sa 23May 17:00

Juventus

v

Napoli

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		2	23/10	7/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT JUVENTUS	RECENT FORM
AWHWHDADAWND*​ Most recent​	2 - 2 3 - 0 2 - 0 4 - 2	ALHWHDADALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Juventus are unbeaten in their last 46 Serie A home games

EXPERT VERDICT: Juventus have two trophies in the bag and will be switching their focus towards the Champions League final and their quest to complete an historic treble. Serie A games have been taking a back seat for some time for the champions and that may be to the benefit of Napoli, who can dig out a point from their trip to Turin.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

English League Two Sa 23May 17:30

Southend

v

Wycombe

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		13/8	23/10	19/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
AWAWHWALADHD*​ Most recent​	2 - 2 1 - 4 1 - 1 1 - 2	HWADHLAWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in 13 of Wycombe’s last 18 games

EXPERT VERDICT: Southend and Wycombe narrowly missed out on automatic promotion but they both have a second chance in the League Two playoff final and this should be a tight match. Only goal difference separated these teams after 46 matches and it may take extra-time, or possibly even penalties, to split them.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Simon Hooper STADIUM: Wembley

 

[superbeets]

Spanish Primera Liga Sa 23May 17:30

Barcelona

v

Deportivo

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		1/4	5	10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BARCELONA	RECENT FORM
HWAWHWHWALAW​ Most recent​	2 - 0 0 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0	HLADALHDADHW​ Most recent​

EXPERT VERDICT: Barcelona wrapped up the La Liga title with a game to spare and can sign off their league campaign with an easy win over relegation-threatened Deportivo. Only a victory would be enough to guarantee top-flight survival for Depo, but the Galicians have not triumphed at Camp Nou since 2003.

RECOMMENDATION: Barcelona to win 3-0
1

 

[superbeets]

Spanish Primera Liga Sa 23May 19:30

Real Madrid

v

Getafe

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS5		1/8	8	20	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT REAL MADRID	RECENT FORM
HWAWALHDHDAW​ Most recent​	4 - 1 4 - 0 4 - 2 4 - 0	ALHLALHLALHD​ Most recent​

EXPERT VERDICT: Real Madrid have collected more points than on each of the last two seasons despite finishing behind Barcelona and can increase their tally to 92 with an easy home win over Gefafe. Survival is guaranteed for 14th-placed Getafe but they have taken just one point from their last six games and the short trip to the Bernabeu is unlikely to signal an improvement.

RECOMMENDATION: Real Madrid to win 4-0
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Phillies @ Nationals
O'Sullivan is 1-2, 3.68 in his four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Scherzer is 3-0, 2.57 in his last three starts.

Phillies lost four of last five games with Washington; three of last four went over the total. Philly won seven of its last nine games (under 6-3). Nationals won last five games, scoring 35 runs; eight of their last ten went over.

Mets @ Pirates
Syndergaard is 1-1, 3.18 in his first two MLB starts (under 1-0-1).

Cole is 5-2, 2.47 in his last seven starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Mets lost three of last four games with Pittsburgh; eight of last ten in series stayed under total. NY won four of last six games overall- they're 7-12 away from home. Pirates lost six of last seven games; seven of their last 10 games stayed under.

Brewers @ Braves
Peralta is 1-5, 4.81 in his last seven starts; his last four road starts went under.

Wood is 1-2, 5.09 in his last four starts; over is 6-1-1 in his last eight.

Milwaukee lost six of last seven games with the Braves; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Brewers lost six of last nine games (under 5-3-1). Atlanta won five of their last six games, with four of last six going over the total.

Giants @ Rockies
Vogelsong is 2-0, 1.37 in his last three starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.

Kendrick is 0-1, 1.93 in his last two starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight.

Giants just shut LA out three days in row; they lost five of last six games vs Colorado- under is 4-0-1 in last five. SF won last six games overall; last three stayed under. Colorado is 4-6 in its last ten games.

Cubs @ Diamondbacks
Lester is 4-0, 2.67 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Collmenter is 1-2, 11.30 in his last three starts; six of his last eight went over.

Cubs won eight of last ten games, with four of last five staying under total, but they've lost their last five games with Arizona. D'backs won their last four games overall, with four of last five staying under.

Padres @ Dodgers
Cashner is 0-5, 4.64 in his last five starts, with four of five staying under the total; Padres scored a total of four runs in the five games.

Greinke is 6-1, 1.52 in his last ten starts; seven of his last eight starts went over the total.

Dodgers got shut out in last three games; they're scored two runs in last five contests. LA won seven of last ten games with the Padres- seven of the ten games went over. San Diego lost five of its last six games overall.

American League
Astros @ Tigers
Astros are 7-1 when McHugh starts (2-1, 5.19 in last four); four of his last six starts went over the total.

Simon is 0-1, 2.89 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went under.

Houston lost four of last five games in Detroit; four of last six series games stayed under. Astros won seven of last nine games; over is 5-3 in their last eight. Tigers are 5-3 in eight games; four of their last six stayed under.

Rangers @ Bronx
Lewis is 2-0, 2.77 in his last four starts; all four games went over.

Pineda is 3-1, 2.41 in his last five starts; over is 6-1-2 in his last nine.

Texas lost four of last six games with Bronx; eight of last nine stayed under the total. Rangers won three of last four games, allowing seven runs; all four stayed under total. Bronx lost seven of last eight games, with six of the eight staying under the total.

Mariners @ Blue Jays
Hernandez is 5-1, 2.11 in his last six starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine.

Estrada is 0-2, 6.14 in his three starts (over 2-1).

Seattle lost three of last four games with Toronto; seven of last nine got over the total. Mariners are 3-5 in last eight games (under 6-2). Blue Jays lost seven of last nine games; five of their last eight went over.

Angels @ Red Sox
Richards is 3-1, 1.83 in his last five starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Porcello is 3-0, 2.10 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Boston lost seven of last nine games with the Angels; six of last eight went under total- Sox lost three of last four games overall, with last eight staying under total. Boston lost seven of its last nine home games. Angels are 7-3 in their last ten games (under 8-2).

A's @ Rays
Kazmir is 0-2, 7.16 in his last three starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Archer is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; six of his last eight stayed under.

A's lost 11 of last 13 games; three of last four stayed under. Oakland is 7-3 in last ten games with Tampa Bay, with under 7-1-1 in last nine. Rays won last four home games, allowing five runs; five of their last six home games went under the total.

Twins @ White Sox
Hughes is 3-0, 5.12 in his last three starts; three of his last four went over- Twins scored 18 runs in his last three starts.

Samardzija is 2-1, 6.92 in his last four starts, three of which went over.

White Sox lost their last four games with Minnesota; six of last nine series games went over total. Twins won four of last five games; three of last four went over the total. Pale Hose lost last three games, scoring six runs; their last four stayed under.

Interleague
Reds @ Indians
Leake allowed nine runs in five IP last start, after going 2-0, 0.41 in previous three; three of his last four starts stayed under.

Carrasco is 2-3, 5.91 in his last five starts; four of those went over.

Reds won last three games with Cleveland, scoring 21 runs; last four in series went over total. Cincinnati lost its last five games overall, scoring 13 runs; four of those five went over. Indians won five of last seven games, with last five staying under.

Orioles @ Marlins
Jimenez is 2-2, 3.24 in his last four starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Alvarez is 0-3, 6.23 in his three starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Miami lost its last seven games (four of last five stayed under) but they've won six of last seven games with Baltimore- six of those seven went over total. Orioles are 3-1 in last four games; five of their last seven stayed under.

Cardinals @ Royals
Lynn is 2-0, 0.68 in his last two starts; under is 5-3 in his last eight.

Young is 2-0, 1.08 in his three starts (under 2-1).

St Louis lost four of last five games with the Royals; under is 3-1-1 in those games. Cardinals are 3-4 in last seven games- six of their last nine stayed under. Kansas City won five of its last six games; three of last four stayed under.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Phil-Wsh- O'Sullivan 1-3; Scherzer 5-3
NY-Pitt-- Syndergaard 1-1; Cole 5-3
Mil-Atl-- Peralta 2-6; Wood 2-6
SF-Colo-- Vogelsong 4-2; Kendrick 2-6
Chi-Az-- Lester 6-2; Collmenter 3-5
SD-LA-- Cashner 1-7; Greinke 6-2

Hst-Det-- McHugh 7-1; Simon 5-3
Tex-NY-- Lewis 3-5; Pineda 6-2
Sea-Tor-- Hernandez 7-1; Estrada 0-3
A's-TB-- Kazmir 3-5; Archer 5-4
LAA-Bos-- Richards 4-2; Porcello 6-2
Min-Chi-- Hughes 3-5; Samardzija 4-4

Cin-Clev-- Leake 3-5; Carrasco 4-4
Balt-Mia-- Jimenez 3-4; Alvarez 0-3
StL-KC-- Lynn 4-4; Young 3-0

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Phil-Wsh- O'Sullivan 2-4; Scherzer 1-8
NY-Pitt-- Syndergaard 0-2; Cole 3-8
Mil-Atl-- Peralta 2-8; Wood 3-8
SF-Colo-- Vogelsong 1-6; Kendrick 5-8
Chi-Az-- Lester 3-8; Collmenter 3-8
SD-LA-- Cashner 3-8; Greinke 4-8

Hst-Det-- McHugh 2-8; Simon 0-8
Tex-NY-- Lewis 1-8; Pineda 2-8
Sea-Tor-- Hernandez 1-8; Estrada 2-3
A's-TB-- Kazmir 1-8; Archer 3-9
LAA-Bos-- Richards 0-6; Porcello 2-8
Min-Chi-- Hughes 2-8; Samardzija 3-8

Cin-Clev-- Leake 1-8; Carrasco 4-8
Balt-Mia-- Jimenez 0-7; Alvarez 1-2
StL-KC-- Lynn 2-8; Young 0-3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Rangers (53-22) at Lightning (50-24)

Date: May 22, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Henrik Lundqvist seems baffled.

The New York Rangers allowed 12 goals in losing their last two playoff games, and one of the NHL's top goalies is at a loss to explain why.

If Lundqvist and his teammates can't find answers in a hurry, their chances of overcoming a 2-1 deficit in the best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals don't appear good.

'It's really challenging for me, the way they move the puck and find open ice for the shot, the way they get scoring chances from right in front. They're good, but I need to be more consistent with my game plan,' Lundqvist said Wednesday night after a 6-5 overtime loss in Game 3.

Game 4 is Friday night, with the Lightning looking to move a step closer to a spot in the Stanley Cup Final and the Rangers hoping to even the series heading back to New York for Game 5 on Sunday.

'Sometimes as a team, we can be a little bit better, but also I have to be better,' Lundqvist said. 'We're not going to win if I give up six goals.'

And the Rangers realize they have to help their goalie.

The speedy Lightning are only halfway to the four wins necessary to advance, however the way they've forged their series edge after dropping Game 1 2-1 on the road has been impressive.

The Rangers have a fast team, too, yet they've still had difficulty keeping up with Tampa Bay's Triplets, the high-scoring line featuring Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov.

Johnson scored his NHL playoff-leading 12th goal, Palat scored twice and Kucherov rammed the Game 3 winner past Lundqvist 3:33 into overtime.

'We found a way, and that's what the playoffs are all about - finding a way,' Lightning captain Steven Stamkos said. 'It wasn't pretty at times, but you get the win and that's all that matters.'

Both teams squandered two-goal leads Wednesday night. Tampa Bay went ahead again with under 6 minutes left in regulation, only to see the Rangers counter with under 2 minutes remaining.

Lundqvist said it's been tough to keep track of the puck with the Lightning seemingly able to do anything they want the past two games.

And while the Rangers say they need to do a better job on defense in front of the goaltender, both teams agree it won't be easy to slow the pace of play.

'I think both teams want to play fast. I think that's been our identity all season long,' Stamkos said.

'How do you slow a game down between two really fast teams?' Lightning coach Jon Cooper offered. 'I think it's just two hockey teams trying to win a game. If it's 6-5 or 2-1, you're still trying to win a game.'

Nevertheless, it's difficult to imagine the Rangers prevailing without finding a way to get back to playing low-scoring games.

Nine of the 15 games they've played this postseason have been decided by a score of 2-1, with New York winning seven of those games.

Still, coach Alain Vigneault rejected the notion that his team has to prevent the Lightning from setting the tempo.

'I don't think either team can dictate the pace of the game,' Vigneault said Thursday, noting the Rangers did score five goals on Tampa Bay's Ben Bishop in Game 3.

'It was a good hockey game,' the coach added.

Tampa Bay won Game 2 on the road, converting three of six power-play opportunities. Wednesday night, they scored at least five goals on Lundqvist for the fourth time in six meetings between the teams this season (including three regular season games).

Rangers center Derek Stepan said a lack of discipline, leading to penalties, undermined New York in Game 2. He called Game 3 'just one of those games' where each team was able to take advantage of mistakes by the other and put the puck in the net.

Even though the Lightning won, they weren't entirely comfortable with it turning into a run-and-gun game.

'We think we definitely have the talent to play that way,' center Alex Killorn said. 'But I think we prefer not to trade chances because you never know what could happen. I think if we played a more structured game defensively, that would be to our advantage.'

The Rangers aim to play better defense, too, in hopes of giving Lundqvist a chance.

'You have to believe you can make a difference,' the goalie said. 'I have to play better. I'll do whatever I can.'

New York is counting on it.

'Hank is very accountable, very demanding of himself,' Vigneault said. 'He's going to do what any good goaltender does. He's going to put (Wednesday's) game behind him and move on to (Friday night).'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Lightning torch Lundqvist once again
Andrew Avery

New York Rangers goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has allowed five or more goals just six times during the 2014-15 regular season and postseason, but after Wednesday's 6-5 loss in the Eastern Conference Final, four of those games have come against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Wednesday's scoreline marked the second-consecutive game in the series that the Lightning put six past the Swedish netminder. Tampa Bay tallied five in a 5-1 win against the Blushirts back on Nov. 17 and another five in a 6-3 win on Dec. 1.

The Lightning have a 2-1 lead in the series with Game 4 slated to go Friday evening in Florida.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game 2: Cavs at Hawks
By Tony Mejia

Cavaliers at Hawks (-1.5/197) – 8:30 PM EST – TNT

East Finals Game 2 – Cavs lead 1-0

For the Cavs, there was both great and sobering news in the series opener, starting with the fact they immediately stole homecourt advantage. J.R. Smith was white-hot, drilling contested shot after contested shot to break the spirit of the Hawks after he brought Cleveland back from an early deficit. Unfortunately, Kyrie Irving aggravated a case of knee tendinitis and didn’t have the burst he hoped a few days off would afford him. Unless there’s some unexpected turnaround ahead, the Cavs are going to have to get used to chasing a championship with their second-best player hobbled.

Given the presence of LeBron James, winning the first championship in major Cleveland sports since 1964 will still be possible even if Irving can’t get right. He took advantage of mismatches and finished 12-for-26, scoring 31 points, grabbing nine rebounds and distributing six assists in Game 1. He said he’d be surprised to see DeMarre Carroll out there against him given how injured Atlanta’s stopper looked in being helped off the floor on Wednesday, but you wonder if a little of that isn’t wishful thinking. Counting Game 1, James is shooting 31 percent from the field when defended by Carroll and way up at 61 percent when guarded by any other Hawk. Carroll is bigger and stronger than would-be replacement Kent Bazemore, who relies on his boundless energy to be effective, a trait that may be tempered if he’s forced to start and pace himself.

NBA analyst Chris David still sees a low-scoring game in the cards in spite of the Hawks’ primary wing defender potentially being limited or absent. “Not having Carroll at 100 percent will be tough to overcome,” said David,” but I believe Budenholzer will shorten the game and play off the crowd to get the split. Including Tuesday’s result, Atlanta’s defense has allowed 93.1 PPG in the postseason. Oddsmakers opened the total for Game 2 at 197 and it’s holding steady but I expect that number to come down by tipoff. I’d be surprised to see either team get to 100 points in this matchup.”

James missed his only 3-point attempt on Wednesday, so he seems to have abandoned that part of his game altogether. He’s 7-for-49 beyond the arc this postseason but looked far more comfortable getting to his spots in Atlanta than at any point against Chicago’s Jimmy Butler. Not having Carroll could be disastrous for the Hawks if LeBron continues his trend of explosive Game 2s this postseason, averaging 31.5/8.5/6 thus far against the Celtics and Bulls. He’s typically taken series openers as opportunities to survey the scene and get others involved while coming back vowing to be more aggressive. James might be a monster here.

Smith isn’t likely to shoot 8-for-12 from 3-point range again, but the Cavs won’t have to tell him twice to seek out his shots if they deem Irving is again best-suited as a decoy. After returning from his two-game suspension in Game 3 of the Chicago series, Smith has hit 20 of his last 39 3-point attempts. Iman Shumpert will look to continue to aid the cause by masking Irving’s defensive shortcomings, rotating between the Hawks point guards and sniper Kyle Korver.

Tristan Thompson continued to be Cleveland’s most effective big man in Game 1, producing his third consecutive double-double with a career playoff-high 14 points and 10 boards in a playoff-high 42 minutes. He’s become invaluable, generating second-chance opportunities and giving the Cavs a presence at both ends.

For the Hawks to re-emerge in the series, it may have to start inside in neutralizing Thompson and doing a better job protecting the paint. It wasn’t until Al Horford willed his team past Washington by imposing his will inside that they were able to survive the No. 5 seed, so it stands to reason they’re going to need their only three-time All-Star to come up with more than seven rebounds and demand more paint touches. Horford was 8-for-12 in Game 1, so he can certainly score efficiently and force defensive breakdowns. Because Pau Gasol was injured for the latter stages of the semifinals and Boston has no true post presence, Cleveland really hasn’t been tested by a gifted offensive post player. Horford is giving up an inch or three to Thompson and Timofey Mozgov, but has a versatile inside-outside game that should pose problems. Paul Millsap took himself out of rhythm by trying to bully James and Thompson, winding up 3-for-11 while coming up short on finishes in the paint. Although he got to the free-throw line 10 times, he was 0-for-3 from 3-point range and needs to be more efficient and help stretch the floor by knocking down a perimeter look.

Korver made a pair of 3-pointers in four attempts, letting the game come to him and not forcing the issue. After a prolific start to the playoffs where he made an average of 4-for-10 from beyond the arc against Brooklyn, Korver hasn’t hit more than two 3-pointers since Game 2 of the Wizards series, a span of five contests. That’s also the last time he cracked double-figures in scoring. Jeff Teague’s speed was the greatest weapon Atlanta had at its disposal on Wednesday, as he wound up with 27 points on 24 shots. He’ll have to be more efficient too, and it would help to improve on 1-for-6 3-point shooting. The Hawks probably won’t win a game where they’re out-performed from 3-point range in this series and are likely aware that Cleveland is perfect in these playoffs when they’re able to win the rebounding battle. At home, Atlanta must find a way to be more physical while also turning the tables from 3-point-point land.

Kevin Rogers points out that “the Hawks are trying to avoid consecutive losses at Philips Arena for the first time this season, while Atlanta owns a dreadful 2-5 ATS record at home during the playoffs. Amazingly, LeBron won a Game 1 on the road for the first time in his career, snapping an eight-game skid dating back to 2006 with both the Cavaliers and the Heat. Obviously, James is looking to grab a 2-0 series lead on the road for the first time, as Cleveland has lost just once in six away contests this postseason.” The Cavs opened -210 to win the series according to Sportsbook.ag., and are currently -600 after taking the advantage. The Hawks can be had at +400, which offers decent value since they’re favored here. Cleveland has played to unders in consecutive games, while Atlanta games have come in below the posted total three straight times.

On that note, VI’s David is a little surprised the total of 197 hasn’t dropped more for Game 2. He explained, “Despite seeing 102 points scored in the first-half of Game 1, the ‘under’ managed to cash on Tuesday based on pace and defense. The Cavaliers took 84 shots while the Hawks managed just 77 and I believe will see a similar style in Game 2. Defensively, these are two of the best clubs in the league and their form has been even better in the playoffs, especially Cleveland. The Cavaliers are allowing 91.6 PPG in 11 postseason games and Atlanta’s offense seems to be lacking confidence from the outside.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

We have a three day holiday weekend of racing coming up, with a Monday card at Belmont Park that will feature six stakes which is Big Apple Showcase Day for New York breds.

Playing the early Pick 5 at Belmont Park has not been a lot of fun over the past couple of week with too many short fields. Yesterday’s opening five races had fields of five, five, six, six and five. The payoff was $175.00 for 50 cents, which actually was not bad.

Friday’s nine-race card features one five-horse field and five six-horse fields. That makes it tough to find value and some horseplayers step out of the win and exacta pools and look to Pick 3 and Pick 4’s. The only problem with that is with the exception of the Pick 5, the takeout is much higher.

I would like to see the NYRA (and other tracks) cut back on racing. There is no reason Belmont Park cannot go to a four-day a week schedule and attempt to get some larger fields.

Saturday’s card looks much better, with just one six-horse field.

There has not been much change in early betting for the Belmont Stakes, with American Pharoah going from 20-21 to 1-1. Second choice Frosted has gone from 4-1 to 9-2 and third choice Materiality is at 8-1, up a point from 7-1 on Wednesday.

Latest betting odds for the Belmont Stakes:
American Pharoah 1-1
Frosted 9-2
Materiality 8-1
Mubtaahij 16-1
Carpe Diem 18-1
Divining Rod 20-1
Madefromlucky 20-1
Keen Ice 25-1
Tale Of Verve 25-1
Conquest Curlinate 30-1
War Story 30-1
Frammento 35-1


Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Clm $40,000 (1:20 ET)
4 Benny's Bullet 3-1
2 D'princess 2-1
5 Darnely Bay 7-2
3 Money Game 5-2

Analysis: Benny's Bullet tracked the early pace while in between foes and weakened to finish fifth last out against Alw-2 optional claimers and finds an easier spot here tagged for 440,000. The runner up in his last outing was Misszippyslewda, who came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers at Monmouth park by a dozen lengths. Our top pick won two and three back on the inner track and is better than he showed last out.

D'princess wheels back quickly with just a week off after beating $32,000 foes last out in gate to wire fashion. This will be his third start off the long layoff for the RRod barn. He looks sharp enough to win right back here, but hoping our top pick ends up offering a bit more value for the top spot.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4 / 2,5
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 7 OClm $80,000N1X (4:28 ET)
2 All Hands 7-2
1 Combat Diver 5-1
5 The Truth or Else 9-5
6 White Bay 8-1

Analysis: All Hands was the beaten favorite last out in the Federico Tesio where he tracked the early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish third. The colt was a good looking maiden winner two back on the inner track at the Big A over a wet track in his second career start. He went gate to wire that day and still appears to have some upside. Decent value here of he goes off near his 7-2 morning line.

Combat Diver was not a threat in his last two starts, catching muddy tracks in both trips. Three back this guy was a game second in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Park, beaten just a nose. The blinkers go on as he drops into the allowance optional claiming ranks. The cut back to one turn here should suit him.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,5
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R4: #2 Lutheran Miss 8-1
R6: #6 Take Cover 8-1
R7: #6 White Bay 8-1
R9: #9 Mohawk Lily 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Mohawk Racetrack

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 10:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$18000 - FILLIES & MARES, NW $10,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $21,000 LAST 10 STARTS. AE: OPT. CLM. $25,000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 NAT A VIRGIN 3/1


# 1 GREYSTONE LADYLIKE 7/2


# 3 D GS PESQUERO 4/1


NAT A VIRGIN gets the edge as our best wagering option in this competition. This horse looks dangerous. Check out the 84 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. The handicapping group gives this race horse a great chance to come home a winner, class numbers are tops in the group of animals. Win percentage for this driver/trainer is a sparkling 22 percent - excellent chance. GREYSTONE LADYLIKE - This solid standardbred looks very good. Check out the 84 avg TrackMaster Speed Rating. A nice class horse shouldn't be be glossed over. With an average class rating of 86 all signs say it's go time. D GS PESQUERO - Positive instinct - squaring off well enough to contend in this outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 7:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$4600 - FILLIES & MARES N/W $2,200 LAST 4 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 ALBANIAN ERA 8/1


# 1 FOX VALLEY AMANDA 4/1


# 4 WISHINGONADRAGON 3/1


ALBANIAN ERA figures to be our best wagering option in this gathering and just look at the nice morning line. This mare has been performing versus some of the most competitive company in this group recently. Had one of the best TrackMaster SRs of the field in her last outing. I'd recommend using in your bets. FOX VALLEY AMANDA - Her 79 average has this mare among the finest speed figures this time. The group gives this standardbred a great chance to come home a winner, class stats are tops in the group of horses. WISHINGONADRAGON - Some trainers just fit better with certain race horses. That seems to be the case right here with McLenaghan. A really strong wager. The ROI for interesting entrants starting out of the 4 position enhances this one's appeal as a strong play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $5800 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, TWO YEAR OLDS ELIGIBLE TO THE TRIALS. WEIGHT 124LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 LA SANTITA CORONA 4/1


# 1 THREE OLIVES N SMOKE 5/2


# 5 A BEAUTIFUL FLAME 3/1


I think LA SANTITA CORONA is a respectable choice. Cannot be underestimated - Orozco is a strong handler with the babies, winning 25 of his races. 2 year old contests can be dangerous but Orozco has this young pony in very strong shape, worth a look. Orozco has a reliable 26 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. THREE OLIVES N SMOKE - May be right there at the finish based on decent results of the trainer with juveniles. There is a quite good chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Has strong sire gains and may be worth the very dangerous nature of a two-year old race. A BEAUTIFUL FLAME - This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Look for a much better effort with the drop. Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been quite good - 55 avg - of late.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Mdws

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 72

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 22, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500, IF FOR $5,000, ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 DENALI TIZ A PARK 6/1


# 3 NOWINEFORWELLSE 12/1


# 1 P G RATING 7/2


DENALI TIZ A PARK looks to be a very good contender. Ought to be carefully examined for this event if only for the decent speed rating posted in the last race. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this group of horses. Exhibits the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 75 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the top in this group. NOWINEFORWELLSE - He has been travelling solidly lately while recording sharp Equibase speed figs. Has to be given a chance against this field displaying strong figs recently and an average speed fig of 85 under similar conditions. P G RATING - Have to play this gelding with the reliable earnings per start in dirt route races. Always tough to beat Arnett and Tohill working together, winning 18 percent of their races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 5:54pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,200 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 DANDY DEAL (ML=5/1)
#5 JUDGE BETH (ML=5/2)
#9 MISTY EYED (ML=7/2)
#8 SWAYZE LADY (ML=6/1)


DANDY DEAL - The race may set up nicely for this magnificent animal's late kick and she's probably the best closer in the field. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Indiana Downs last out. That contest had a class figure of 74 and she is moving down in this event. A certain win candidate. JUDGE BETH - Taking a trip down the ladder based on class rating points; has the class ability to make her presence felt. I like to see fast works. This filly's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Have to give this filly a chance. Ran a sharp contest last time out within the last 30 days. MISTY EYED - This mare's last race was back on October 17th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a layoff. Trainer Kopp moves this thoroughbred down the class scale to face a less competitive field. Look for a good effort at this level. Ran a less than stellar race at Belterra Park last time out. Racing under normal track conditions puts this mare at the top of my contenders roll call. A repeat of that recent performance on October 17th where she recorded a speed figure of 71 looks strong enough to score in this event. SWAYZE LADY - Have to like this mare today. If you take a look at her PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each race. Recent speed figures show dominant pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MAMAS KISSES (ML=9/2), #4 THE BARN MANAGER (ML=8/1),

MAMAS KISSES - Hard to take this vulnerable equine at these odds after the result (fourth) in the last event. THE BARN MANAGER - 52/45/22, are the deteriorating speed ratings for this mount.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MISTY EYED - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This horse looks good to me so I'm making a wager on her.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #6 DANDY DEAL on the nose if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #3 - Post: 7:57pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 47

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 LUCKY MAGGIE (ML=8/1)
#2 MADEITOUTTAHARLAN (ML=9/5)


LUCKY MAGGIE - Faced tougher last time around the track at Charles Town. Based on class figures, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of choice plays. MADEITOUTTAHARLAN - This pony coming off a nice performance in the last 30 days is a win candidate in my book. This horse could be tough in today's contest, especially since Montano rode last time out and now should be better acquainted with this one. Looking at this filly's running lines, I see she's almost always on the board. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per start (EPS) in here today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ADDED REWARD (ML=7/2), #4 ALWAYS A PRESENCE (ML=9/2), #1 HELLO GOVNOR (ML=5/1),

ADDED REWARD - You think this animal is going to be victorious just because she's always close. Just doesn't finish first regularly. ALWAYS A PRESENCE - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line of 9/2. HELLO GOVNOR - No good results for this vulnerable equine in a sprint race over the last sixty days tells me that this filly is in a difficult circumstance difficult to invest in any mount to turn things around if there is no reward to taking the risk. When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to earn a better speed figure than last out to compete in this dirt sprint.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MADEITOUTTAHARLAN - With the highest last speed rating of 50, this filly looks exceptional against these ponies.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #7 LUCKY MAGGIE to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass