At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
The betting action at Pimlico starts early this morning, with a first post at 11:30am ET for the marathon 14-race card that includes seven stakes races.
While much of the talk this week is the impending rain that is in the forecast for Saturday, the weather is supposed to be perfect for Friday’s card.
The feature is the $250,000 Black Eyed Susan (G2) for three-year-old fillies going nine furlongs on the main track. Land Over Sea, a fast closing second in the Kentucky oaks (G1) wheels back on two weeks rest for trainer Doug O’Neill, who sends out the betting favorite for the Preakness Stakes (G1) in Nyquist.
The race drew a field of 14 and it’s tough to take a late running filly at a short price in such a wide open race so as you can see below I am swinging for the fences with longshot Dothraki Queen, who is 15-1 on the morning line.
One of the highlights of the day will be seeing the 10-year-old Ben’s Cat in action again. The gelding is looking for his fifth win in the $100,000 Jim McKay Turf Sprint going five furlongs on turf.
Trained by Hall of Famer King T. Leatherbury, he earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure of 105 winning this race last year as a nine-year-old.
He has made 54 career starts and has won 31, with nine seconds and four thirds. He has earned $2,530,937 in his career.
His price may drift south from his 9-5 morning line so I am looking for a bit more value with Night Officer, who was third behind the favorite last out but has a shot of turning the tables and will likely go off right around his 3-1 morning line.
Here is today’s opener from Pimlico to get the day off to a good start:
PIM Race 1 Alw $52,000N1X (11:30 ET)
#6 Anna Rae 6-1
#8 Touch and Smile 8-5
#4 Miss Wilby 2-1
#7 Ring Knocker 9-2
Analysis: Anna Rae makes her first start since fading to finish a well beaten sixth in the Frizette (G1) last October in the slop. This gal showed promise with a good looking maiden score in her debut, then was in too tough in Grade 1 company in her next two starts. She returns her with blinkers added and a class drop for the Englehart barn that is 40% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a +180-day layoff. Decent value in this spot if we catch most of the 6-1 morning line.
Touch and Smile ships in from Keeneland where last out the filly was a game second against Alw-2L foes in her first start against winners, beaten a length while five lengths clear of the rest of the field. She broke her maiden in her debut at Turfway Park on poly going 6 1/2 furlongs. She took action in both starts and will here too. Our top pick is going to end up offering more value for the top spot.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,8 / 4,6,7,8
TRI: 6,8 / 4,6,7,8 / 2,4,6,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Pimlico:
PIM Race 11 The Black Eyed Susan G2 (4:50 ET)
#2 Dothraki Queen 15-1
#3 Land Over Sea 2-1
#9 Midnight On Oconee 15-1
#5 Go Maggie Go 5-2
Analysis: Dothraki Queen is going to be a decent price here as she rents to dirt after an eighth place finish in the Appalachian (G3) last out at Keeneland going a mile in her first start off a 4 ½ month break. The filly as bothered coming out of the gate, was outrun early and showed some late interest, beaten 9 ¼ lengths for the top spot. The winner Catch a Glimpse came back to win the Edgewood (G3) in her next outing on May 6. This filly showed some ability last year on the main track including winning the Pocahontas (G2) at Churchill Downs in her first start against winners. She then caught slop in a runner up finish in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland and was seven lengths behind Songbird when third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) where she as third. She capped off her year when fourth and placed third via a DQ in the Golden Rod (G2). She should move forward in her second start off the bench and picks up a new rider in Julien Leparoux.
Land Over Sea wheels back off a two week break where she was a good second in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She made a good late rally after being outrun early but could not get to Cathryn Sophia, beaten 2 ¾ lengths. She had the misfortune of running into Songbird five straight times, then won the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in her first start where she did not have to face that undefeated filly. The question here is whether she is going to see enough early pace in front of her, her short price, and whether she regresses on the rather quick turnaround.
Midnight On Oconee makes her first start since running seventh behind Lane Over Sea in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The runner up in that race was Dream Dance, who beat Alw-1 foe sin her next outing on April 16 at Keeneland. The Larry Jones trainee ran well in her two previous starts, a runner up in the Rachel Alexandra and the Silverbulletday. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and she has some pedigree on the bottom side that might get to be able to handle nine furlongs. She figures to bounce back with a much better effort here and is going to be a generous price.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,5,9
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,5,9 / 2,3,5,9,10
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Pimlico
R2: Bioterp 8-1
R3: #1 Sweetrayofsunshine 12-1
R4: #10 Unspoken 15-1
R5: #1 Tekton 15-1
R6: #11 Pennies Appeal 15-1
R6: #10 Pret Say Eye 15-1
R7: #5 Idolo Porteno 12-1
R8: #1 Rapid Dan 8-1
R9: #9 Super Majesty 15-1
R10: #14 Wessex 8-1
R11: #2 Dothraki Queen 15-1
R11: #9 Midnight On Oconee 15-1
R12: #10 Loves Last Chance 12-1
R13: #5 Quick Release 10-1
R14: #6 Outofthedepths 15-1
Good luck today!