NBA Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Hawks at Wizards (-2 ½, 197) – 7:00 PM EST – ESPN
Game 6 – Atlanta leads 3-2
The Hawks and Wizards went back and forth in the final few minutes of Wednesday’s Game 5 at Philips Arena but Atlanta holds the upper-hand in this series with a trip to the Verizon Center for Friday’s Game 6. The top-seeded Hawks overcame a late Paul Pierce three-pointer with eight seconds remaining in regulation as Al Horford’s layup gave Atlanta an 82-81 victory to move one win away from their first conference finals appearance since moving to Georgia in 1968.
Following three straight games topping the 100-point mark, the Hawks were limited to their third-lowest point total of the season in Game 5. Horford paced Atlanta with 23 points and 11 rebounds, but Kyle Korver’s struggles from the floor continued with a 1-of-5 shooting performance from three-point range. The Hawks were limited to 41% shooting, but held Washington to 37% shooting from the field, while the Wizards knocked down just 4-of-17 three-pointers.
John Wall returned to the lineup after missing three games with a fractured left wrist, as the Wizards’ point guard scored 15 points and dished out seven assists. Washington improved to 7-2 ATS in the playoffs by covering as seven-point underdogs, as Randy Wittman’s squad owns a remarkable 11-2 ATS record since last season as a ‘dog in the playoffs. However, the Wizards have compiled a 3-4 ATS mark as a favorite in the postseason since 2014, while laying points for the first time in this series in Game 6.
Washington has performed well as a home favorite since February 7, winning 13 of their last 14 when placed in the role, while going 8-4-2 ATS. The Hawks have yet to win three straight games in the playoffs, while putting together a 2-5 ATS ledger as a road underdog in the playoffs since 2013 (first time in ‘dog role this postseason).
Chris David is buying the ‘over’ again on Friday and he’s expecting a big rebound for both offensive units.
He explained, “I was very surprised to see the Hawks held in the eighties on Wednesday but when you shoot 22 percent from 3-point land and only get to the free throw line 11 times, you’re going to see that type of production. I’m even more surprised the oddsmakers adjusted the total down to 197 for Game 6 especially with Game 5 closing at 202. The only explanation I could see for the move is that they’re expecting the public to look for a repeat of the last game.”
“For those of you who missed it, both teams shot a combined 39 percent from the field, they combined for 9 triples and the most important factor, they only had 27 combined trips to the free throw line. I question some of Mike Budenholzer’s tactics in this series, especially with Dennis Schroder running the point late in the game, but I can’t ignore his offensive success against the Wizards. Toss out the 82-point effort in Game 5 and the Hawks have averaged 103 PPG in 12 other games since Bud has taken over in Atlanta. Coincidentally, the ‘over’ has gone 10-2 in those contests. Don’t be surprised to see late steam on the ‘over’ Friday and some heavy buy orders on the Hawks team total ‘over’ of 97 ½.”
Atlanta opened the series as -230 favorites to eliminate Washington, as the Hawks are currently -700 (Bet $700 to win $100) to advance. If you have faith in the Wizards to win the next two games, Washington is listed at +500 (Bet $100 to win $500) to advance to the Eastern Conference finals.
Warriors (-5) at Grizzlies – 9:30 PM EST – ESPN
Game 6 – Golden State leads 3-2
Following a rout in the series opener, Golden State suddenly dropped consecutive games to Memphis to fall into a 2-1 hole with Game 4 at FedEx Forum. The Warriors cruised to a 101-84 rout of the Grizzlies to even the series at 2-2 and took that momentum back home for Wednesday’s Game 5 whipping of Memphis, 98-78 to cash as 10-point favorites.
The Grizzlies jumped out to a 21-10 advantage with less than five minutes remaining in the opening quarter of Game 5, but the Warriors outscored Memphis, 16-4 to close the period and take the lead for good. Golden State limited Memphis to just 37 second half points as the Grizzlies shot below 40% from the floor for the second straight game. The Warriors connected on 14 three-pointers, including six from MVP Stephen Curry, who finished with 18 points. Neither team shot many free throws as each club converted 8-of-10 from the charity stripe.
The ‘under’ has cashed in all five games of this series, while Steve Kerr’s club has compiled a 7-1-1 mark to the ‘under’ in the postseason. Since late March, the Warriors own an 8-2 record to the ‘under’ in their last 10 road games, including a 3-1 mark in the playoffs away from Oracle Arena. In the last two losses for Memphis, Marc Gasol has made just 15-of-41 shots from the floor, while point guard Mike Conley is 9-of-25.
Tony Allen is expected to return to the lineup for Memphis in Game 6 after missing Wednesday’s loss with a hamstring strain. Allen’s offense hasn’t been much of a factor in this series (21 combined points in Game’s 2, 3, and 4), but his defense helped Memphis limit Golden State to 6-of-26 shooting from long range in the two Grizzlies’ victories. Memphis has split six contests as an underdog this postseason both SU and ATS, while looking to avoid its third losing streak of at least three games this season.
David believes that we’re starting to figure out who the better defensive team is in this series. David said, “It’s understood that Memphis is an offensive juggernaut but when you’re held to less than 86 points three times in the same series, it’s more than issues with shooting. Golden State is a very sound defensive club and it’s done a great job of keeping Memphis off the free throw line. During the season, Memphis averaged close to 23 free throw attempts per game and that average is down to 18 in this series, which includes only 10 trips in Game 5. Unless the Grizzlies get more aggressive, I don’t see this being close and would expect Golden State to close out this series on the road.”
