Friday's Tip Sheet
By Chris David
Eastern Conference – Game 6 – Raptors lead 3-2
Toronto at Indiana – ESPNews/NBATV, 7:35 p.m. ET
Backing teams off a bad loss is never a smart decision and bettors face that dilemma on Friday with Indiana. In Game 5 on Tuesday the Pacers built a 90-77 lead after three quarters but forgot to show up for the final 12 minutes. The Raptors outscored Indiana 25-9 in the fourth and captured a 102-99 win and 3-2 series lead.
Indiana’s Paul George was once again the best player on the court (39-8-8) but he only managed to take three shots in the final quarter. Rookie Norman Powell did a great job defending the All-Star and his plus-16 effort in Game 5 was the top mark for the Raptors.
Toronto was also helped with a 34-point performance from DeMar DeRozan, which made many forget his 13.3 points per game production in the first four games. Fellow All-Star Kyle Lowry still hasn’t found his shot (15.2 PPG) in this series for the Raptors but he’s been picked up by backup Corey Joseph (10.4 PPG) and the aforementioned Powell.
Despite collapsing on Tuesday, Indiana opened as a two-point home favorite for Game 6 and that says something since the Raptors opened as road favorites in the first two games played at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in this series.
Based on recent playoff history for the pair, NBA Expert Kevin Rogers doesn’t have much confidence in either club. He explained, “The Raptors haven’t advanced past the first round of the playoffs since 2001, losing in the conference quarterfinals five consecutive times. The Pacers put together an incredible 6-0 both SU and ATS record as a home favorite during the 2013 playoffs, but Indiana has dropped off in that department recently by posting a 3-6 ATS mark in its past nine opportunities when laying points at home in the postseason.”
Indiana has gone 3-3 in Game 6 when facing elimination at home and according to Rogers, you might be inclined to bet against teams with their backs to the wall.
“In the 2015 postseason, all six road teams looking to close out a series in Game 6 up 3-2 won and covered. Only two of these squads were listed in the underdog role as the Hawks and Cavaliers each finished off their series as a road 'dog in the conference semifinals.”
Those of you watching this year's playoffs can note that Atlanta helped that record improve to 7-0 last night as it eliminated Boston on the road.
Indiana has gone 5-3 both SU and ATS when listed as a favorite between 1-2 points this season while the ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in those games. Toronto has gone 8-10 SU and 10-7-1 ATS as a road underdog this season and that includes a 1-1 record versus Indiana.
Toronto (7-3) and Indiana (10-6) have both been solid bets on two days of rest this season but if you’re playing percentages, the Raptors get a slight lean.
Eastern Conference – Game 6 – Hornets lead 3-2
Miami at Charlotte – ESPN, 8:00 p.m. ET
After watching the home team win the first four games in this first round series, the Hornets defeated the Heat 90-88 as six-point road underdogs (ML +210) in Game 5 on Wednesday. Charlotte took the lead with 25 second left on a 3-pointer from Courtney Lee and Miami couldn’t come up with an answer but many believe Heat guard Dwyane Wade was fouled on a late attempt.
The win snapped the Heat’s eight-game winning streak at home and also was the first road playoff win for Charlotte in 14 years. Including that victory, the Hornets have won three straight in this series and have a chance to finish the Heat in a possible Game 6 clincher on Friday.
The Hornets opened as 1 ½-point home favorites and that number is much shorter than the first two games (-3, -2.5) played at Time Warner Cable Arena. A couple major outfits have moved to Charlotte to -2 and based on what we’ve seen from Miami the last three games, I’d expect the line to go up.
Miami scored 123 and 115 points in its two wins while connecting on 18-of-34 shots (53%) from downtown. Since then, the Heat are 23-of-69 (33%) and it makes you believe that the first two games were offensive anomalies especially when you realize that the team only made 34 percent from 3-point land during the regular season.
Make no mistake, Charlotte hasn’t been great in this series either but it’s hard to see them losing at home. Including wins in this series, Charlotte has gone 15-2 in its last 17 home games. Plus, Miami is 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS as a visitor since the All-Star break and that includes a 1-7 record as a road underdog.
Rogers pointed out that past clubs from Miami have been known to pack it in when facing these kind of situations. He said, “The Heat haven’t fared well with their backs to the wall on the road in postseason play. Since 2009, Miami has been eliminated three times on the road, all by double-digits. In 2009, the Heat fell by 14 points in the decisive Game 7 of the first round to Atlanta, followed by a 10-point defeat at Boston the next postseason. In the 2014 NBA Finals, the Spurs blasted the Heat by 17 points, as Miami hopes to avoid a disappointing end to the season.”
To be fair, this Heat team has a lot of new faces on the roster with a lot less experience. Wade is the only tested veteran and his 7-7 record when facing elimination is simply ordinary.
Western Conference – Game 6 - Trail Blazers 3-2
L.A. Clippers at Portland – ESPN, 10:35 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers opened the Trail Blazers as 10-point home favorites over the Clippers in Game 6 on Friday and I believe that number is inflated and solely based on the outcome from Wednesday.
Portland earned a 108-98 win in Game 5 as a 2 ½-point road favorite at the Staples Center and certainly capitalized on the absence of Clippers’ Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. The backcourt of Damian Lillard (22) and CJ McCollum (27) finally got going for the Trail Blazers as they combined for 49 points but the game was much tighter than the final score.
Los Angeles led by five points (50-45) at halftime and the game was knotted 71-71 after three quarters. In the final 12 minutes, Portland opened with a 19-6 run and they just couldn’t miss offensively. They scored 37 points on 12-of-21 shotsin the fourth, which includes an eye opening 6-of-11 effort from 3-point land. On the other end of the court, the Clippers were just 1-of-6 from downtown in the fourth and 6-of-20 (30%) overall.
Portland has now won three straight against Los Angeles and owns a 3-2 series lead. Winning the fourth quarter has fueled Portland during this streak, outscoring the Clippers by 27 total points (26-21, 32-20, 37-27) in the victories.
Winning at Portland won’t be an easy task for Los Angeles according to Rogers. “Since blowing a 15-point halftime lead to the Rockets on February 25, the Blazers have been nearly unbeatable at the Moda Center. Portland has won 11 of its last 12 home contests, while limiting six of those opponents to fewer than 100 points,” said Rogers.
Los Angeles owned a winning record on the road (24-17 SU, 20-18-3 ATS) during the regular season but a lot of those losses came down the stretch. Including the two postseason setbacks, the Clippers have gone 3-7 both SU and ATS in their last 10 games as visitors.
While Portland is expected to advance by the oddsmakers and win this game, you could be hesitant to lay the heavy wood. Portland was installed as a double-digit favorite five times during the regular season and the club went 5-0 in those games, which isn’t surprising considering none of the opponents made the playoffs. However, the Trail Blazers only managed to post a 1-4 record against the spread. For what it’s worth, the Clippers were 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season.
Due to the injuries and Portland winning the last three games, it’s now listed as high as a minus-1300 favorite (Bet $100 to win $7) to win this series. The takeback on the Clippers is close to 8/1 odds and while it’s wishful thinking to grab the generous return, I do believe L.A. will be competitive on Friday.
