Friday 4/15/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

French Ligue 1 TODAY 19:30

Lyon

v

Nice

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT2		1/2	10/3	11/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LYON	RECENT FORM
HWHWADHWAWAW​ Most recent​	1 - 2 4 - 0 3 - 0 3 - 4	HLHWAWHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Lyon have won seven of their last eight home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Champions League is the target for these two teams and Lyon are looking in outstanding shape having dropped points in only two of their last ten Ligue 1 matches. That is reflected in the prices and, while the hosts should win, Nice have produced enough this term to suggest it will be tight.

RECOMMENDATION: Lyon to win 2-1
1

 

[superbeets]

German Bundesliga TODAY 19:30

Hannover

v

Mgladbach

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BTEU		4	11/4	4/6	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HANNOVER	RECENT FORM
HLALHLALHLAD​ Most recent​	0 - 3 3 - 1 2 - 3 2 - 1	HWALHWALHWAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Gladbach have won six of their last seven games against Hannover

EXPERT VERDICT: Monchengladbach’s away form seemingly makes them vulnerable at odds-on with the Champions League chasers collecting only two points from their last eight Bundesliga road fixtures. However, rock-bottom Hannover will soon be relegated and have conceded a first-half goal in 12 of their last 14 matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Gladback-Gladbach double result
1

 

[superbeets]

Spanish La Liga TODAY 19:30

Levante

v

Espanyol

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SS3		11/8	23/10	21/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT LEVANTE	RECENT FORM
HLADHWALHDAL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 2 - 2 3 - 0 3 - 2	HLHWADHWADHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Both teams have scored in nine of the last 11 meetings

EXPERT VERDICT: This is a massive match for lowly Levante who are desperate for the points in their fight against relegation and a visit of Espanyol gives them a fair chance. Espanyol have not kept an away clean sheet in La Liga this season but the Budgies have scored in seven of their last eight road trips.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
1

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 16Apr 12:45

Norwich

v

Sunderland

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BT1		11/8	9/4	2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NORWICH	RECENT FORM
HLALHDAWHWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 2 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 4	ALHDADADHDHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Norwich have won only one of their last six at home

EXPERT VERDICT: Norwich’s dramatic late win over Newcastle boosted their survival chances but Sunderland could ensure a nervy end to the season in Norfolk. The Black Cats are defending well, unlike Norwich, and they have enough attacking edge to nick a crucial victory at Carrow Road.

RECOMMENDATION: Sunderland
2


REFEREE: Andre Marriner STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Premier League Sa 16Apr 15:00

Newcastle

v

Swansea

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		11/8	9/4	2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NEWCASTLE	RECENT FORM
ALHLALHDALAL​ Most recent​	2 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 2 0 - 0	AWHWALHWADHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Newcastle have taken just one point from their last seven league games

EXPERT VERDICT: Dear oh dear oh dear. Newcastle have gone from bad to worse since Rafa Benitez took charge and they look almost certain to be relegated. Swansea are in decent nick and Gylfi Sigurdsson can’t stop scoring. They beat Chelsea last week and can follow up with victory on Tyneside.

RECOMMENDATION: Swansea
4


REFEREE: Lee Mason STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

First Round Cheat Sheet

Key:
A – Atlantic
M – Metropolitan
C – Central
P – Pacific
W – Wild Card

Eastern Conference

1M Washington vs. 2W Philadelphia

Capitals: 56-17-8, 120 points
Flyers: 40-27-14, 94 points

Season series: The Capitals and Flyers each won two meetings this season in four matchups with the final three games decided by one goal each. Philadelphia edged Washington in the shootout on March 30 in a 2-1 home victory, while the Flyers shocked the Capitals as +200 road underdogs in overtime, 4-3 on January 27.

Previous playoff outcome: The Capitals reached the second round of the playoffs last season before bowing out to the Rangers in seven games. Washington knocked out the other New York squad in the first round by edging the Islanders in seven games, as each of their last five playoff series since 2012 have gone the distance. The Flyers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2014, as Philadelphia fell in seven games to the Rangers.

1A Florida vs. 1W N.Y. Islanders

Panthers: 47-26-9, 103 points
Islanders: 45-27-10, 100 points

Season series: The Panthers beat the Islanders in the first two matchups early in the season, but New York rallied from a 2-0 deficit in the third period of their last meeting to win, 3-2 in mid-March. In the only contest in South Florida, the Panthers edged the Islanders, 3-2 in the shootout on the night after Thanksgiving to begin a five-game winning streak.

Previous playoff outcome: Florida hasn’t won a playoff series since reaching the Stanley Cup Final in 1996, as the Panthers are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2012. The Panthers stretched the Devils to the limit, but lost Game 7 at home in the opening round in double-overtime. The Islanders fell in seven games to the Capitals in the first round of last season’s playoffs, while scoring one goal each in three of the losses.

2A Tampa Bay vs. 3A Detroit

Lightning: 46-31-5, 97 points
Red Wings: 41-30-11, 93 points

Season series: These two teams split four matchups this season with the home team winning each time. Detroit held Tampa Bay to one goal apiece in the two victories at Joe Louis Arena early in the season, while the Lightning scored six goals in their final meeting at Amalie Arena in late March. Three of the four meetings finished ‘under’ the total.

Previous playoff outcome: The Lightning and Red Wings are hooking up in the opening round for the second straight season, as Tampa Bay held off Detroit in seven games. Tampa Bay won three of four games at Amalie Arena, while the Bolts overcame a 3-2 deficit to win the final two games en route to capturing the Eastern Conference championship.

2M Pittsburgh vs. 3M N.Y. Rangers

Penguins: 48-26-8, 104 points
Rangers: 46-27-9, 101 points

Season series: The Penguins caught fire at the end of the season to win 14 of 16 games to finish in second place of the Metropolitan division. Pittsburgh grabbed three of four meetings from New York, including the last two matchups at Madison Square Garden. There weren’t any clear trends on the total between these teams with one ‘over,’ one ‘under,’ and a pair of ‘pushes.’

Previous playoff outcome: New York and Pittsburgh are locking horns for the second straight postseason in the first round, as the Rangers made quick work of the Penguins in five games. All four losses by the Penguins came in exact 2-1 scores, including a pair of losses at home. Pittsburgh has been bounced by New York in each of the last two postseasons, as the Rangers overcame a 3-1 deficit to stun the Pens in the 2014 second round in seven games.

Western Conference

1C Dallas vs. 2W Minnesota

Stars: 50-23-9, 109 points
Wild: 38-33-11, 87 points

Season series: The Stars captured four victories in five games against the Wild this season, including three wins in overtime. Dallas won all three games at Xcel Energy Center, as all three road victories eclipsed the ‘over.’ The only win for Minnesota came at Dallas on January 9 in a 2-1 triumph, while the Wild blew a 3-0 third period lead in a 4-3 home overtime setback to the Stars in late November.

Previous playoff outcome: Minnesota advanced to the second round last season before getting bounced by eventual champion Chicago in four games. The Wild eliminated St. Louis in six games, while yielding two goals or less in all four victories. The Stars are back in the postseason following a one-year absence, as Dallas lost in six games to Anaheim in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs. The last time Dallas advanced past the first round, it reached the conference finals in 2008 as the Stars lost to the Red Wings in six games.

1P Anaheim vs. 1W Nashville

Ducks: 46-25-11, 103 points
Predators: 41-27-14, 96 points

Season series: These teams haven’t met since November 17, as the home squad won all three matchups. Nashville ripped Anaheim at home on October 22 by a 5-1 count, as the Ducks finished that early-season road trip at 0-5. The Ducks picked up revenge in the next meeting at the Honda Center on November 1 in a 4-2 victory before dropping a 3-2 decision in Nashville 16 days later.

Previous playoff outcome: Anaheim rolled past Winnipeg and Calgary in the first two rounds of last season’s playoff before losing in seven games to Chicago. Nashville is making its fourth playoff appearance since 2011, while looking to advance to the second round for the first time since 2012. The Predators fell to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Blackhawks in six games of the opening round of the 2015 playoffs.

2C St. Louis vs. 3C Chicago

Blues: 49-24-9, 107 points
Blackhawks: 47-26-9, 103 points

Season series: The Blues won three of five matchups this season with the Blackhawks, including a comeback 2-1 victory at the United Center in overtime on April 7. All three losses by Chicago to St. Louis came past regulation, including two overtime defeats at home. After the first two meetings eclipsed the ‘over,’ the ‘under’ rebounded and went 2-0-1 in the final three matchups.

Previous playoff outcome: Chicago claimed its third Stanley Cup title since 2010 when the Blackhawks knocked out the Lightning in six games last June. The Blackhawks last met the Blues in the playoffs back in 2014 in the opening round, as Chicago rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to eliminate St. Louis in six games. The Blues have been bounced in the first round in each of the last three postseasons, as they last escaped past the opening round in 2012 before bowing out to the Kings in the conference semifinals.

2P Los Angeles vs. 3P San Jose

Kings: 48-28-6, 102 points
Sharks: 46-30-6, 98 points

Season series: The Sharks won three of five meetings against the Kings, including a pair of victories at Staples Center. This series was dominated for a long time by the home team, but the road team went 4-1 in the five matchups, while four contests were decided by at least two goals.

Previous playoff outcome: Two seasons ago, San Jose built a commanding 3-0 advantage over Los Angeles in the opening round, but ended up losing the final four games. The Kings wound up winning the Stanley Cup that season, as Los Angeles is back in the playoffs after missing out last season. The Sharks also return to the postseason following a one-year absence, as the Kings knocked out San Jose in both 2013 and 2014 in seven games apiece.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Eastern Conference Outlook
By Alex Smith

Washington Capitals vs. Philadelphia Flyers
2015-16 Head-to-Head Record: Tied 2-2 SU, 1-1-2 O/U
Home team has won 6 of the Last 9 Meetings
Flyers: 7 of the Last 10 Meetings
Capitals: Lost 12 of Last 17 Road Playoff Games

Two clubs who's playoff history dates back to the vicious Patrick Division battles during the 1980s, The Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers are set to clash once again in the first round of this year's Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The Capitals have had a monstrous campaign, dominating for well over 3/4ths of the season. Washington set a new record for most wins (56/57), most points (120/121/122) and they captured their second President's Trophy in franchise history. Led by their superstar captain Alexander Ovechkin, who notched his 3rd consecutive 50-goal season and goaltender Braden Holtby, who ended the season tied with Martin Brodeur for most wins by a goaltender in a season with 47, the Caps have been the odds-on favorite to win the Stanley Cup since after the New Year.

However, we have seen President's Trophy-winning clubs fall short of the grand prize time and time again. The 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks are the last club to win both the President's Trophy and Stanley Cup in the same year, and that was a shortened season due to a lockout. You have to go back to the 2001-02 Detroit Red Wings to find a club that won both trophies in a full 82-game season year. Philadelphia returns to the postseason after a down year in 2015-16.

The Flyers, led by first year coach Dave Hakstol, played simple, stripped-down hockey this year, focusing on puck possession, clean neutral-zone play and balanced lines that provided a good wealth of scoring all season. Forwards Wayne Simmonds & Claude Giroux along with rookie D-man Shayne Gostisbehere have been the 3 key pieces for this club's success offensively, while goaltender Steve Mason has turned in a decent ledger this season for the Flyers, but he has yet to prove his worth in a postseason series. With a 2-6 career playoff record, he will the biggest piece of the puzzle in order for them to pull what would be a big upset.

The Flyers haven't fully returned to the "Broad Street Bullies" just yet, but they play a strong, physical brand of hockey that is a contrast from the fast, offensive possession style that the Capitals have made an art form of this season. While these two teams have a built-up rivalry and some tight contests between each other, this Washington team is on a mission to get over their recent playoff struggles. This team will turn on an extra gear in this series and advance to the 2nd Round in what should be a deep postseason run.

Prediction: Capitals in 6

Washington Capitals
(Record: 56-17-8; 120 Points - Presidents' Trophy Winners)
O/U Record: (21-12-19 at 5 / 12-17 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#5: 21.9%)
Penalty Kill: (#2: 85.2%)
# of OT/SO Games: 19

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015
(Beat NY Islanders in 7, Lost to NY Rangers in 7)
(7-7 SU, 3-9-2 O/U & 7-7 ATS Last Postseason)

14-14, 6-17-5, 18-10 ATS Last 5 Series
5-12 Last 17 Playoff Road Games

Current Form: On a 3-6 SU Run Last 9 Games
PK Unit: 20 Kills/22 Chances Last 9 Games

Leading Scorers: Evgeny Kuznetsov (20g, 77pts)
Alex Ovechkin (50g, 71pts), Nicklas Backstrom (20g, 70pts)
Justin Williams (22g, 52pts), T.J. Oshie (26g, 50pts)

#1 Goalie: Braden Holtby (48-9-7, 2.20 G.A.A; .923 Sv% with 3 SO in 65 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 16-18, 1.92 G.A.A; .936 Sv%)

Philadelphia Flyers
(Record: 41-27-14; 96 Points)
O/U Record: (23-11-20 at 5 / 8-18 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#11: 18.9%)
Penalty Kill: (#20: 80.5%)
# of OT/SO Games: 27

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to NY Rangers in 7)
(3-4 SU, 3-2-2 O/U & 3-4 ATS in that Series)
8-10 SU, 10-6-2 O/U & 8-10 ATS Last 3 Playoff Series

Current Form: On a 15-8 SU Run
On a 6-3 SU Run Last 9 Games as a Favorite

Leading Scorers: Claude Giroux (22g, 67pts)
Wayne Simmonds (32g, 60pts), Brayden Schenn (26g, 58pts)
Jakub Voracek (11g, 55pts), Shayne Gostisbehere (17g, 46pts)

#1 Goalie: Steve Mason (23-19-10, 2.51 G.A.A; .918 Sv% w/ 4 SO in 53 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 2-6, 3.11 G.A.A; .907 Sv% in 8 GS)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Detroit Red Wings
2015-16 Head-to-Head Record: Tied 2-2, 1-3 O/U
Home team has won 10 of last 14 meetings
Lightning: Beat Red Wings in 1st Round Last Year in 7 Gms
Red Wings: 25 Straight Postseason Appearances (Longest Streak in North American Sports)

This rematch from last year's opening round series will have a much different feel this time around. The Tampa Bay Lightning enter this series as defending Eastern Conference Champions after beating the Red Wings in a thrilling seven-game series that was very physical and showcased the defensive prowess from both clubs that hadn't been their mantra during the season prior.

One major change in this match-up will be the absence of Bolts star winger Steven Stamkos, who is out indefinitely after surgery to correct a blood clot in his arm. Stamkos was 2nd in points scored for this Tampa club that has had trouble off and on all season finding consistent secondary scoring, a trait that carried them deep into the playoffs just a season ago. Detroit fought off Boston to grab the 3rd spot in the Atlantic Division on the final weekend of the season to extend their postseason record to 25 consecutive seasons.

Kudos to 1st year coach Jeff Blashill for handling the pressure of dealing with rotating injuries, shaky goaltending and maintaining a record that the Motor City faithful take great pride in. With that said, this series will be a test of which club's offense can heat up at the right time. The Wings will be looking for a boost from rookie sensation Dylan Larkin and veteran mainstay Pavel Datsyuk, who has announced this will be his last NHL season at the conclusion of the playoffs. The oft-injured winger is one of the last members from the Detroit clubs that won Stanley Cups in 2002 & 2008.

The goaltending tandem of Jimmy Howard & Petr Mrazek were the glaring weakness in this series last year, and it seems like not much has changed in that time. Jimmy Howard has been solid as of late, winning 6 of his last 9 starts, but Petr Mrazek, who started all 7 games in the 2015 series, has lost 4 of his last 5 starts. For the Bolts, it's Ben Bishop who has been turning in yet another solid season between the pipes. The 6'7" netminder has won 6 of his last 8 starts and held opponents to 2 or fewer goals in 6 of his last 9 appearances overall. This will be another tightly contested series where goals will be at a premium, and small mistakes will be critical.

Prediction: Lightning in 6

Tampa Bay Lightning
(Record: 46-31-5; 97 Points)
O/U Record: (23-25-10 at 5 / 11-16 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#28: 15.8%)
Penalty Kill: (#7: 84%)
# of OT/SO Games:

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015
(Beat Detroit in 7, Beat Montreal in 6, Beat NY Rangers in 7, Lost to Chicago in 6)
(14-16, 12-17-1 and 16-14 ATS Last 5 Series dating back to 2014)

Current Form: 0-4 SU Last 4 as an Underdog, 3-6 Last 9 Road Games,
PK has allowed 1 Goal in 5 of Last 8 Games

Leading Scorers: Nikita Kucherov (30g, 66pts)
Steven Stamkos (36g, 64pts - Injured), Victor Hedman (10g, 47pts)
Alex Killorn (14g, 40pts), Ondrej Palat (16g, 40pts)

#1 Goalie: Ben Bishop: (35-21-4, 2.06 G.A.A; .926 Sv% with 6 SO in 60 GS)
(Career Playofff Record: 13-11, 2.18 G.A.A; .921 Sv%)

Detroit Red Wings
(Record:41-30-11; 93 Points)
O/U Record: (25-28-16 at 5 / 6-14 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#13: 18.8%)
Penalty Kill: (#14: 81.5%)
# of OT/SO Games: 22

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015 (Lost to Tampa Bay in 7)
(3-4 SU, 2-4-1 O/U & 3-4 ATS in that Series)
19-23 SU, 13-17-12 O/U & 23-18 ATS Last 5 Postseasons

Current Form: 5-13 SU Last 18 Road Games
Power-Play has scored at least 1 Goal in 9 of Last 11 Games
Howard: 6-3 SU Last 9 Starts
Mrazek: 1-4 SU Last 5 Starts

Leading Scorers: Henrik Zetterberg (13g, 50pts)
Pavel Datsyuk (16g, 49pts), Tomas Tatar (21g, 45pts)
Dylan Larkin (23g, 45pts), Gustav Nyquist (17g, 43pts)

Goalies:
Jimmy Howard (14-14-5, 2.80 G.A.A; .906 Sv% in 33 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 21-24, 2.53 G.A.A; .919 Sv%)

Petr Mrazek (27-16-6, 2.33 G.A.A; .921 Sv% w/4 SO in 49 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 3-4, 2.11 G.A.A; .925 Sv%)

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Rangers
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Pens lead 3-1 SU, 1-1-2 O/U
Road Team has won 7 of Last 10 Meetings
Under is 5-2-2 Last 9 Meetings
Rangers: Beat Penguins in 5 Games of first round in 2015
Penguins: Lost 6 of Last 10 meetings vs. Rangers

Another first round re-match from last postseason takes place as the scorching hot Pittsburgh Penguins take on the New York Rangers.

It was the Blueshirts who made short work of Sidney Crosby and company last April as the Rangers won the series 4 games to 1, but this season, the Penguins have picked up 3 wins in their 4 meetings. Earlier in the year it was the Rangers that were the all the rage in the Eastern Conference, starting off on a 18-7-3 run, but then cooling off once the injury bug started to hit and affect key guys like goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, and defensemen Kevin Klein & Dan Girardi.

Now it's Pittsburgh that has been one of the best teams in the NHL down the stretch, winning 16 of their last 20 contests to bounce from a fringe team on the bubble of reaching a Wild Card berth to firmly planting themselves into 2nd place in the Metropolitan Division. The mid-season coaching change, hiring Mike Sullivan to replace Mike Johnston, worked out very well, as this dynamic offense, led by Crosby, Evgeni Malkin & newly acquired Phil Kessel finally woke up and took charge, scoring goals in bunches for most of the 2nd half of the season.

Pittsburgh's only major concern has to be their current situation in net. Marc-Andre Fleury has missed time this season on two separate occasions with concussion issues, and while rookie Matt Murray looked stellar in goal during Fleury's recent absence, he too was injured in their season finale, suffering a blow to his head and is now listed as questionable for the start of this series.

As of now, should Fleury & Murray both be ruled out, the goaltending duties would be on Jeff Zatkoff & Tristan Jarry, the latter of which has never even appeared in an NHL contest. This will be an all-out battle, given these two clubs' history with one another. And while the offense for Pittsburgh has been electric, the question mark between the pipes is just big enough to cause some serious concern. I'll give the edge to King Henrik's club to edge out a close series victory.

Prediction: Rangers in 7

Pittsburgh Penguins
(Record: 48-26-8; 104 Points)
O/U Record: (26-16-12 at 5 / 10-17 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#16: 18.4%)
Penalty Kill: (#5: 84.4%)
# of OT/SO Games: 18

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015 (Lost to NY Rangers in 5)
(1-4 SU, 1-4 O/U & 5-0 ATS in that Series)
16-17 SU, 16-16-1 O/U & 16-17 ATS Last 6 Series

Current Form: On a 16-4 SU Run Last 20 Games
Scored 4+ Goals in 11 of Last 14 Games
PK Unit: 41 Kills / 45 Chances over Last 14 Games

Leading Scorers: Sidney Crosby (36g, 85pts)
Kris Letang (16g, 67pts), Phil Kessel (26g, 59pts)
Evgeni Malkin (27g, 58pts) Patric Hornqvist (22g, 51pts)

Goalies:
Marc-Andre Fleury (35-17-6, 2.29 G.A.A; .921 Sv% w/5 SO in 58 GP)
(Career Playoff Record: 53-44, 2.65 G.A.A; .906 Sv%)
(Last 5 Years Postseason: 15-20, 2.86 G.A.A; .905 Sv%)

Matt Murray (9-2-1, 2.00 G.A.A; .930 Sv% in 13 GS)
Rookie Was Starting in Place of Fleury, who was out with a concussion, but he suffered a head injury in the Season Finale and is questionable as well.

Jeff Zatkoff (4-7-1, 2.79 G.A.A; .917 Sv% in 11 GS)
(No NHL Playoff Experience)

New York Rangers
(Record: 46-27-9; 101 Points )
O/U Record: (20-29-16 at 5 / 8-9 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#14: 18.6%)
Penalty Kill: (#26: 78.2%)
# of OT/SO Games: 16

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015
(Beat Pittsburgh in 5, Beat Washington in 7, Lost to Tampa Bay in 7)

11-8 SU, 6-12-1 O/U, 5-14 ATS Last Postseason
40-41 SU, 24-40-17 O/U & 31-50 ATS Last 5 Postseasons
4-5 in 1st Home Game of Series since 2013

Current Form:On a 7-4 SU & 6-0-5 O/U Run Last 11 Games
Allowed 2+ Goals in 18 of Last 19 Games
Lundqvist: 4-8 SU Last 12 Starts

Leading Scorers: Mats Zuccarello (26g, 61pts0
Derick Brassard (27g, 58pts), Derek Stepan (22g, 53pts)
Keith Yandle (5g, 47pts), J.T. Miller (22g, 43pts), Chris Kreider (21g, 43pts)

#1 Goalie:
Henrik Lundqvist (35-21-7, 2.48 G.A.A; .920 Sv% with 4 SO in 64 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 54-56, 2.22 G.A.A; .923 Sv% with 9 SO)

Florida Panthers vs. New York Islanders
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Panthers lead 2-1 SU, 1-0-2 O/U
Home Team has won 6 of the Last 10 Meetings
Underdogs have won 6 of the Last 10 Meetings
Over is 8-0-2 Last 10 Meetings
Panthers: 18-8 SU Last 26 Home Games
Islanders: On a 7-4 SU Run Last 11 Games Overall

It's a Cross-Divisional clash as the Atlantic Division Champion Florida Panthers open the Stanley Cup Playoffs against the New York Islanders.

This has been a miraculous season for the 'Cats, as many people picked this club to fall somewhere between a Wild Card entry and a Top 5 Lottery Pick for the next Draft. However, with a solid blend of youthful talent and some crafty veterans, the Panthers not only reached the playoffs for the 2nd time in this decade, but with 103 points, the team set a new record for most points in franchise history, en route to winning their 2nd ever division title.

The "Ageless Wonder," 46-year old Jaromir Jagr is not only still skating on an NHL roster, but he leads this club in points and has really set an example for the younger guys on this hockey team with his tireless work ethic and love for this game. He's a perfect locker room guy to have around up-and-coming stars like Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad & Nick Bjugstad.

The New York Islanders had a nice honeymoon season in their new digs at the Barclays Center over in Brooklyn, reaching the playoffs for the 3rd time in 4 seasons. The core of this club remains intact from last year, with star winger john Tavares leading the way, along with contributions from Forwards Kyle Okposo & Brock Nielson. This club is tough & gritty and will bang the boards with anyone in the league.

Their one weakness heading into the postseason is their defense, and that's as a result of injuries sweeping through their blue line and goaltenders as of late. D-men Travis Hamonic & Calvin de Haan both missed time late in the season with ailments, the former has yet to return to the line-up. In net, Starter Jaroslav Halak has been out for over a month with a groin issue, and Thomas Greiss has been moved to the #1 role, but his new back-up, Jean-Francois Berube, went down a week ago with a lower body issue, and he's questionable for Game 1.

Should something happen to Greiss, who virtually has no NHL playoff experience, the task of tending net would go to either Berube or Christopher Gibson, who barely even have a week's worth of NHL season time on their pads.

This will be a fun series to watch, as we get to see Florida in the playoffs, which is a rare treat, and we also get to see a great fan base in Brooklyn cheer on their squad. Both teams have made great strides over the last couple of seasons to reach this point and we will see a pair of hungry hockey clubs battle it out in this one. I like the Panthers here to win their first playoff series in over 20 years.

Prediction: Panthers in 6

Florida Panthers
(Record: 47-26-9; 103 Points, Atlantic Division Champions)
O/U Record: (25-18-18 at 5 / 8-13 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#23: 16.9%)
Penalty Kill: (#24: 79.5%)
# of OT/SO Games: 17

Last Playoff Appearance: 2012 (Lost to New Jersey in 7)
(3-4 SU, 2-2-3 O/U & 5-2 ATS in that series)

Current Form: On an 11-5 SU Run Last 16 Games Overall
PK Unit has allowed 1+ Goals in 9 of Last 11 Games
Offense has scored 3+ Goals in 13 of Last 17 Games

Leading Scorers: Jaromir Jagr (27g, 65pts)
Jussi Jokinen (18g, 60pts), Aleksander Barkov (28g, 59pts)
Jonathan Huberdeau (20g, 59pts), Vincent Trocheck (25g, 53pts - Injured)

#1 Goalie: Roberto Luongo (34-19-6, 2.35 G.A.A; .922 Sv% w/4 SO in 59 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 32-31, 2.54 G.A.A; .916 Sv% with 5 Shutouts)

New York Islanders
(Record: 45-27-10; 100 Points)
O/U Record: (11-9-8 at 5 / 22-32 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#17: 18.3%)
Penalty Kill: (#4: 84.5%)
# of OT/SO Games: 21

Last Playoff Appearance:2015 (Lost to Washington in 7)
(5-10 SU, 6-7-1 O/U & 8-5 ATS Last 2 Postseasons)

Current Form: Over is 8-2-1 Last 11 Games
On a 4-1 SU run Last 5 Games as a Favorite

Leading Scorers:
John Tavares (33g, 70pts), Kyle Okposo (22g, 64pts)
Frans Nielsen (20g, 52pts), Brock Nelson (26g, 40pts)

Goalies:
Jaroslav Halak (18-13-4, 2.30 G.A.A; .919 Sv% w/3 SO in 36 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 13-15, 2.39 G.A.A; .924 Sv%) (Injured-Groin)

Thomas Greiss (23-12-4, 2.36 G.A.A; .924 Sv% in 38 GS)
(No NHL Playoff Experience)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Western Conference Outlook
By Alex Smith

Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Stars lead 4-1 SU, 3-2 O/U
Road Team has won 6 of the Last 9 Meetings
Favorite has won 5 of the Last 8 Meetings
Over is 6-2 Last 8 Meetings
Stars: On a 13-5 SU Run Last 18 Games Overall
Wild: 2-5 SU Last 7 Playoff Games

With a dramatic 3-2 victory in their regular season finale at home, the Dallas Stars clinched both the Central Division crown and the top seed in the Western Conference, and will now open the Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Minnesota Wild in the first round.

Dallas has been one of the best teams in the league all season from an offensive standpoint, with one of the best power-play units converting at a 22% clip, led by the duo of forwards Jamie Benn & Tyler Seguin, the two combined for 74 Goals & 87 Assists during the season.

Minnesota comes into this series on a 5-game losing streak, after previously winning 6 in a row. Their schizophrenic offensive attack has been the primary cause for their roller-coaster season, which saw a bit more stability once John Torchetti was brought in as new Head Coach late into the season. The Wild went 15-11-1 down the stretch with the former Chicago assistant at the helm. Injuries have bit this club as of late, as two key forwards Thomas Vanek & Zach Parise, could miss the start of this series. That duo combined for 43 goals during the season.

The keys to this series will undoubtedly come down to Goaltending & Special Teams. Dallas has been platooning between the Finnish duo of Antti Niemi & Kari Lehtonen all season. While both netminders have turned in respectable records this year, the 32-year old Niemi holds a 10-4-2 career record versus the Wild, which could give him the starting edge, despite Lehtonen winning 6 of his last 7 starts.

Devan Dubnyk will start between the pipes for Minnesota, and he will have to shake off his recent struggles if the Wild stand a chance of advancing out of the first round for the 3rd consecutive year. Dallas' PP shouldn't have too much of a struggle against the Wild's penalty-killing units.

Minnesota is ranked 4th-worst in the league in PK% at just under 78%. The Wild are a disciplined team, that stresses puck possession, but if they can't find the back of the net, they do get frustrated easily, which can turn into penalties.

If the Stars' blue-line corps can do enough to keep quality shots away from either netminder, this could be a very quick series for the club that once called the Twin Cities home over 2 decades ago.

Prediction: Stars in 5

Dallas Stars
(Record: 50-23-9; 109 Points - Central Division Champions)
O/U Record: (2-1-1 at 5 / 43-33 at 5.5 / 0-2 at 6)
Power Play: (#4: 22.1%)
Penalty Kill: (#10: 82.3%)
# of OT/SO Games: 17

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to Anaheim in 6)
(2-4 SU, 4-2 O/U & 4-2 ATS in that series)

Current Form: On a 9-2 SU run Overall and 6-0 Run at home.
5-1 SU Last 6 as a Favorite
PP has scored at least 1 Goal in 6 of Last 9 Games
PK Unit 50 Kills/53 Chances in the Last 15 Games
Lehtonen: 6-1 SU in his Last 7 Starts

Leading Scorers: Jamie Benn (41g, 88pts)
Tyler Seguin (33g, 73pts), Jason Spezza (33g, 63pts)
John Klingberg (10g, 57pts), Patrick Sharp (20g, 54pts)

Goalies:
Kari Lehtonen (25-10-2, 2.76 G.A.A; .906 Sv% in 39 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 2-6, 3.88 G.A.A; .874 Sv%)

Antti Niemi (25-13-7, 2.68 G.A.A; .905 Sv% in 43 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 35-26, 2.74 G.A.A; .907 Sv%

Minnesota Wild
(Record: 38-33-11; 87 Points)
O/U Record: (21-25-20 at 5 / 8-8 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#15: 18.5%)
Penalty Kill: (#27: 77.9%)
# of OT/SO Games: 15

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015
(Beat St. Louis in 7, Lost to Chicago in 4)
10-18 SU, 14-9-6 O/U & 14-15 ATS Last 5 Series
0-5 in Game 1's Last 5 Series

Current Form: On an 0-5 SU run
Offense held to 30< SOG in 7 of Last 9 Games

Leading Scorers: Mikko Koivu (17g, 56pts)
Zach Parise (25g, 53pts), Ryan Suter (8g, 51pts)
Mikael Grandlund (13g, 44pts), Nino Niederreiter (20g, 43pts)

#1 Goalie: Devan Dubnyk (32-27-6, 2.33 G.A.A; .918 Sv% with 5 SO in 65 GS) (Career Playoff Record: 4-7, 2.53 G.A.A; .908 Sv%)

St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Blues lead 3-2 SU, 2-1-2 O/U
Road Team has won 5 of the Last 7 Meetings
Underdog has won 4 of the Last 6 Meetings
Blackhawks: 3-10 in Game 1 of Playoff Series since 2011
Blues: Lost to Chicago in 6 Games in 2014 first round

A historic division rivalry is renewed once again in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks look to officially begin their quest for a repeat, start off battling against the St. Louis Blues.

The Hawks & Blues face-off in an opening round series just 2 postseasons ago, where the Blues held a 2-0 series lead and dropped 4 straight, leading to the 2nd of what became 3 consecutive first round exits, while Chicago went all the way to Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals, losing in Overtime to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion LA Kings.

This year's series has a similar setup, with St. Louis clinching home-ice less than a week ago after picking up a 2-1 OT win against these Hawks, in a game where they trailed for virtually the entire game, and tied up the contest with under a minute left and picking up the 2nd point early in the extra frame.

Both teams have superb offenses and talented defenders, but some hot & cold spells with goaltending. Chicago's top netminder Corey Crawford has returned after missing 11 starts with concussion-like symptoms, but he showed a bit of rust in his last start, a 5-4 OT loss at Columbus to conclude the regular season. The 2-time Cup Winner was looking like a Vezina Trophy Finalist during the 1st Half of the Season, going 28-12-2 with 7 shutouts before the All-Star Break, but faltering down the stretch with a 7-6-3 record.

The Blues are riding the hot pads of Brian Elliott, who suffered a mid-season injury, only to return and dominate between the pipes with a 12-1-1 record in his last 14 starts. Jake Allen was also very strong in net during Elliott's absence, but he is now out with his 2nd significant injury of the season and is questionable to even back-up his 31-year old counterpart.

The hottest offensive line in all of hockey has been the trio of Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin & Artem Anisimov. The 2013 Conn Smythe Winner will be adding to his trophy room collection this Summer regardless of how the Playoffs fare, as Kane becomes the 1st ever American-born player to win the Art Ross Trophy for most points scored during the regular season with 106. In addition, the 25-year old rookie Panarin led all first-year players with 76 points and is a shoe-in for the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year.

With all of this being said, the Hawks will need this line to produce as well as major contributions from Captain Jonathan Toews and veteran Marian Hossa, who is slated to return from a minor leg injury in time for this series. St. Louis has been a very tough team and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder knowing that they have done well against Chicago during the season and will look to avenge their playoff defeat from 2 years ago. This club has just enough talent to pull off their first series win since 2012.

Prediction: Blues in 7

St. Louis Blues
(Record: 49-24-9; 107 Points)
O/U Record: (29-31-10 at 5 / 3-9 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#6: 21.5%)
Penalty Kill: (#3: 85.1%)
# of OT/SO Games: 22

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015 (Lost to Minnesota in 7)
11-17 SU, 12-12-4 O/U & 10-18 ATS Last 4 years

Current Form: On a 14-4 SU run Last 18 Games.
Brian Elliott: 12-1-1 Last 14 Starts
Under is 6-4 Last 10 Games
PK Unit: 24 Kills/26 Chances over Last 10 Games

Leading Scorers:
Vladimir Tarasenko (40g, 74pts), Alex Steen (17g, 52pts)
Paul Stastny (10g, 48pts), David Backes (21g, 45pts),
Kevin Shattenkirk (14g, 44pts)

Goaltenders:
Brian Elliott (23-8-6, 2.01 G.A.A; .931 Sv% with 4 Shutouts in 37 GS)
(Career Playoff Record:6-10, 2.55 G.A.A; .898 Sv%)

Jake Allen (26-15-3, 2.35 G.A.A; .920 Sv% with 6 Shutouts in 44 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 2-4, 2.20 G.A.A; .904 Sv%)

Chicago Blackhawks
(Record: 46-27-9; 103 Points)
O/U Record: (11-16-22 at 5 / 12-14 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#2: 22.6%)
Penalty Kill: (#22: 80.3%)
# of OT/SO Games: 20

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015 (Beat Nashville in 6,
Beat Minnesota in 4, Beat Anaheim in 7, Beat Tampa Bay in 6)
45-26 SU, 34-27-10 O/U & 36-35 ATS Last 5 Years
3-10 SU in 1st Road Game of a Series since 2010 Cup Final

Current Form: On a 5-3 SU run Last 8 Games Overall
Offense has scored 3+ Goals in 6 of Last 8 Games.
PK Unit: 32 Kills / 35 Chances over the Last 13 Games
7/19 on the Power-Play over the Last 5 Games

Leading Scorers:
Patrick Kane (46g, 106pts - Art Ross Trophy Winner)
Artemi Panarin (30g, 77pts - Leads All Rookies)
Jonathan Toews (28g, 58pts), Brent Seabrook (14g, 49pts)

#1 Goalie: Corey Crawford (35-18-5, 2.34 G.A.A; .924 Sv% in 58 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 45-29, 2.23 G.A.A; .921 Sv% with 5 SO's)

Anaheim Ducks vs. Nashville Predators
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Predators lead 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 O/U
Over is 9-0-1 Last 10 Meetings
Ducks: 7-3 SU Last 10 Meetings
Predators: 7-9 SU Last 16 Playoff Games

One of the biggest comeback stories in this NHL season will be taking part in the Stanley Cup Playoffs as the Anaheim Ducks take on the Nashville Predators in a first round series.

The Ducks got off to a 5-12 SU start to the season and looked like they would be a lottery pick contender, but they were able to muster through the storm and finished the 2nd half of the season with a 25-11 run over the last 3 months to climb all the way back and win the Pacific Division on the very last day of the regular season.

The longtime duo of Corey Perry & Ryan Getzlaf, along with a ton of young core players like Hampus Lindholm & Josh Manson, and the goaltending of Frederik Andersen & John Gibson all contributed to what was a magical run after a disastrous start.

For Nashville, the Predators were looking to expand on what had been a nice 2015-16 campaign, ended abruptly by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks. The club had a bit of a roller-coaster season and eventually made the playoffs with a late push in, clinching the top Wild Card spot in the Western Conference.

Wingers James Neal & Filip Forsberg hold down the offense for the Preds while veteran goalie Pekka Rinne leads a slightly-above average defense. Once considered one of the top goaltenders in the world, the 33-year old starter has logged a lot of ice time and has shown signs of fatigue in the last couple of seasons.

Both of these clubs possess solid Special Teams units, with Anaheim leading the league in both Power-Play & Penalty Kiliing percentage. Nashville's numbers rank within the middle of the league, but this time of year is all about momentum, which is certainly on the side of the Ducks. This will be an interesting series to watch, but I don't expect any shocking finishes here.

Prediction: Ducks in 5

Anaheim Ducks
(Record:47-25-11; 103 Points - Pacific Division Champions)
O/U Record: (21-24-16 at 5 / 11-10 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#1: 23.1%)
Penalty Kill: (#1: 87.2%)
# of OT/SO Games: 18

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015
(Beat Winnipeg in 4, Beat Calgary in 5, Lost to Chicago in 7)
21-15 SU, 17-12-7 O/U & 16-18 ATS Last 6 series

Current Form: On a 5-3 SU Run Last 8 Games
On a 6-4 SU Run Last 10 Games as a Favorite
6-14 SU This Season as an Underdog

Leading Scorers:
Ryan Getzlaf (13g, 63pts), Corey Perry (34g, 62pts)
Ryan Kesler (21g, 53pts), Richard Rakell (20g, 43pts)

Goalies:
John Gibson (21-13-4, 2.07 G.A.A; .920 Sv% w/4 SO in 37 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 2-2, 2.70 G.A.A; .919 Sv% in 4 Starts

Frederik Andersen (21-9-7, 2.36 G.A.A; .917 Sv% w/ 2 SO in 36 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 14-7, 2.54 G.A.A; .913 Sv%)

Nashville Predators
(Record: 41-27-14; 96 Points)
O/U Record: (19-15-18 at 5 / 14-16 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#10: 19.7%)
Penalty Kill: (#16: 81.2%)
# of OT/SO Games: 20

Last Playoff Appearance: 2015 (Lost to Chicago in 6)
2-4 SU, 5-1 O/U and 4-2 ATS in 2015 Playoffs

Current Form:
1-6 Last 7 Road Games, 5-2 Last 7 Home Games
5-1 Last 6 as a Favorite, 5-16 Last 21 as an Underdog

Leading Scorers:
Filip Forsberg (33g, 63pts), Roman Josi (14g, 61pts)
James Neal (31g, 57pts), Shea Weber (20g, 51pts)

#1 Goalie: Pekka Rinne (34-21-10, 2.48 G.A.A; .908 Sv% w/4 SO in 66 GS)
(Career Playoff Record:15-19, 2.48 G.A.A; .914 Sv%)

Los Angeles Kings vs. San Jose Sharks
2015-16 Head-to-Head Series: Sharks lead 3-2 SU, 3-0-2 O/U
Road Team is 7-4 SU Last 11 Meetings
Over is 4-2-1 Last 7 Meetings
Kings: 3rd-Fewest Goals Allowed in NHL (192)
Sharks: Blew 3-0 Lead to Kings in 2014 first round

Two hated Pacific Division rivals clash in this opening round series between the Los Angeles Kings and the San Jose Sharks.

These two squads faced off just 2 postseasons ago, with the Sharks suffering a historic collapse after taking a 3-0 series lead, allowing the Kings to come back and win 4 straight en route to their 2nd Stanley Cup in 3 years. That series loss was the catalyst for San Jose to fire coach Todd McLellan and a shake up of leadership and infusion of youth within the Sharks locker room.

Now this team is hungry again and ready to make another run into the playoffs after a one-year rebuild. The Kings also look primed and ready to make a deep postseason push after missing out on the playoffs last year, becoming the first team since the 2007-08 Carolina Hurricanes to miss the postseason a year after winning the Stanley Cup.

Both of these teams are built in similar fashion, with big, strong forwards up front who have the skills to score but also the toughness to bang bodies along the boards. They each have very dangerous Power-Play attacks and neither club takes a ton of dumb penalties. However, given the nature and history of this rivalry, we will definitely see our fair share of hits, collisions, extra-curriculars after the whistles, and maybe even a fight or two break out. The one glaring edge in this match-up is goaltending.

Jonathan Quick is one of the best goalies in the world when he's hot and with his deep playoff experience, he is always a guy the Kings can rely on to steal a game within a series. He'll either face off against his old back-up in Martin Jones, who has done a stellar job this season for SJ, but doesn't have any postseason experience, or James Reimer, who was acquired from Toronto near the Trade Deadline. The 28-year old backstop has played in one postseason series a few years ago, and has looked good since joining the club with a 6-2 record.

I expect this to be one of the roughest and toughest series of all of the first round match-ups, and with the past events looming in the heads of those veteran Sharks players like Joe Thornton & Patrick Marleau, I expect the San Jose club to see "Red" whenever the Silver & Black hit the ice, and I look for them to get past LA in this opening round.

Prediction: Sharks in 7

Los Angeles Kings
(Record:48-28-6; 102 Points)
O/U Record: (24-27-23 at 5 / 4-5 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#8: 20%)
Penalty Kill: (#15: 81.4%)
# of OT/SO Games: 18

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014
(Beat San Jose in 7, Beat Anaheim in 7, Beat Chicago in 7, Beat NY Rangers in 5)
16-7 SU, 14-8-4 O/U and 15-11 ATS in 2014 Playoffs

Current Form:
On a 4-7 SU Run Last 11 Games Overall
1-5 SU Last 6 Road Games
Allowed 3+ Goals in 8 of Last 11 Games

Leading Scorers:
Anze Kopitar (25g, 73pts), Jeff Carter (24g, 61pts)
Tyler Toffoli (30g, 57pts), Milan Lucic (20g, 54pts)

#1 Goalie: Jonathan Quick (40-23-5, 2.22 G.A.A; .919 Sv% w/ 5 SO in 68 GS)
(Career Playoff Record: 45-31, 2.22 G.A.A; .923 Sv% with 9 Shutouts)

San Jose Sharks
(Record: 46-30-6; 98 Points)
O/U Record: (19-18-8 at 5 / 23-14 at 5.5)
Power Play: (#3: 22.5%)
Penalty Kill: (#21: 80.5%)
# of OT/SO Games: 15

Last Playoff Appearance: 2014 (Lost to Los Angeles in 7)
(3-4 SU, 5-1-1 O/U & 3-4 ATS in that series)
58-56 SU in Playoffs from 2004-2014 (10 Appearances)

(Note: 2013 Sharks became the 4th team in Stanley Cup Playoff History to blow a 3-0 Series lead with 1942 Red Wings, 1975 Penguins, 2010 Bruins)

Current Form: On a 5-2 SU Run Last 7 Games overall
10-3 SU Last 13 Road Games
Power-Play has scored at least 1 Goal in 12 of Last 15 Games

Leading Scorers:
Joe Thornton (19g, 82pts), Joe Pavelski (38g, 78pts)
Brent Burns (27g, 75pts), Patrick Marleau (25g, 48pts)

Goalies:
Martin Jones (37-23-4, 2.27 G.A.A; .918 Sv% w/6 SO in 65 GS)
(Only NHL Playoff experience: 56 Minutes of Relief in 2 GP)

James Reimer (6-2, 1.62 G.A.A; .938 Sv% with 3 Shutouts in 8 GS for SJ)
(Career Playoff Record: 3-4, 2.88 G.A.A; .923 Sv%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Hockey Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews

I love the NHL but honestly don't watch much hockey during the regular season. But I would argue that the Stanley Cup playoffs are the best postseason of any major American sport, and the pucks drops on them starting Wednesday.

Certainly the top storyline has to involve the Chicago Blackhawks, the team of the decade. Chicago has won three Stanley Cups in the past six seasons but has yet to repeat. The last team to go back-to-back was the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 & '98. These Hawks don't look as good as last year's club, but if any team knows how to flip a switch, it's this one. Patrick Kane finished with an NHL-high and career-best 106 points to become the first American-born player to win the Art Ross Trophy as top scorer. Kane, who had 27 multipoint games, has to be the NHL MVP, which will be announced later this summer. And the Hawks should have the Calder Trophy winner as Rookie of the Year in Kane's linemate Artemi Panarin, who led all rookies with 77 points. The last Hawk to win that award? Kane in 2007-08.

Chicago is +450 to win the Western Conference and +750 to win the Cup. The Hawks open at St. Louis on Wednesday night. A reminder that Chicago will be without top defenseman Duncan Keith, the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner as playoff MVP, for that game as he finishes a suspension. The Hawks and Blues are both -110 on the series line.

St. Louis will get back captain David Backes after he missed the final week or so with an injury. The Blues won three of the five regular-season meetings, with three of the five games decided after regulation. The Blues took a 2-0 lead in the first round of the playoffs two years ago against Chicago and then proceeded to lose the next four games. This franchise hasn't won a playoff series since the 2011-12 season, and I highly doubt Coach Ken Hitchcock is brought back if it happens again.

The other main story is that of the Presidents' Cup-winning Washington Capitals. Alex Ovechkin won yet another Rocket Richard Trophy as the NHL's top goal-scorer with 50. It's the fourth straight season and sixth time overall he has done that. But Ovechkin's teams have flamed out in the postseason, failing to reach the conference finals with him. The Capitals have not played past the second round since they reached the Stanley Cup Finals in 1998.

The Caps are +400 favorites to win the Cup and +150 to win the East. It's actually pretty rare for a team to win the Presidents' Trophy and Stanley Cup in the same season, doing so just eight times. Chicago was the last in 2012-13. Washington opens against Philadelphia, a team I didn't think would make the playoffs and which has a negative goals differential (minus-4). Washington is -265 on the series line with Philadelphia at +225. The teams split four regular-season meetings.

Probably the marquee playoff matchup is Pittsburgh against the New York Rangers. The Pens won three of the four meetings and are -155 series favorites. Back in 2014, the Penguins won Game 4 of the conference semifinals against the Blueshirts at Madison Square Garden to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. However, the Rangers won the next three and also ousted Pittsburgh last year in five games.

Both teams have injury questions. New York captain Ryan McDonagh is dealing with an upper-body injury, reportedly a broken hand, and won't start Game 1. It's not clear if he will play at all. Fellow defenseman Dan Girardi is questionable, as is center Eric Staal, who was acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes in a trade on Feb. 28.

Pittsburgh remains without Evgeni Malkin, who has been sidelined since March 11 due to a suspected wrist/hand injury. He's not likely to play in the opener at least. Who will be in net for the Pens? Marc-Andre Fleury hasn't played since March 31 due to a concussion but was at practice on Monday. Youngster Matt Murray was great in Fleury's place but he was injured on Saturday -- a possible concussion -- and being called day-to-day. Why was he playing in a meaningless game?

The other significant injury to watch around the league is to the Stars' Tyler Seguin. He has been out since March 17 with an Achilles injury but was at practice on Monday. Coach Lindy Ruff wouldn't say if Seguin could play in Game 1 against Minnesota on Thursday. Seguin had 33 goals and 40 assists in 72 games for the NHL's highest-scoring team. The Stars probably don't need him to beat Minnesota, which enters the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. Dallas, the West's top seed, is -175 on the series line.

My Western Conference picks to advance are: Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles (over San Jose) and Anaheim (over Nashville), so chalk there. In the East: Washington, NY Rangers, NY Islanders (over Florida) and Detroit (over Steven Stamkos-less Tampa Bay).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blackhawks (47-26) at Blues (49-24)

Date: April 15, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The St. Louis Blues have plenty of pieces still in place from their previous postseason failures.

Maybe goaltender Brian Elliott is the change that finally drives them into the second round.

After posting the Blues' first playoff shutout in four years, Elliott looks to lift them to a 2-0 lead Friday night over the Chicago Blackhawks - who will get top defenseman Duncan Keith back - in the Western Conference quarterfinals.

The Blues could be facing their final shot at a deep playoff run with coach Ken Hitchcock and the core of their current roster after first-round exits the previous three seasons.

Elliott, however, is the new face in goal as St. Louis tries to change its postseason fortunes. A strong regular season and dominant closing stretch - he went 12-1-1 with a 1.90 goals-against average in his last 16 games - earned Elliott the starting nod ahead of oft-injured Jake Allen, and he came through in Wednesday's opener.

Elliott made 35 saves in a 1-0 overtime win that ended when David Backes' pass deflected off Chicago defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk's skate and past goalie Corey Crawford.

The ugly goal gave the Blues their third straight victory over Chicago.

'You just try to get your emotions in check and try not to get too revved up, calm yourself down a little bit when needed,' Elliott said. 'At this time of the year it's just about that next game. You're not looking at the past or the future.'

Elliott led the league with a .930 save percentage and posted a 1.76 GAA and three shutouts in his final eight starts.

He started all six games in a 2013 playoff loss to Los Angeles but made only his second postseason appearance since then in Game 1. Elliott logged the Blues' first playoff shutout since he shared one with Jaroslav Halak on April 14, 2012.

St. Louis, though, has little reason to be overly confident. The Blues appeared in control against the Blackhawks in 2014 after winning twice in overtime at home to start the series, then dropped four straight - two of which went to OT.

All three Blues wins in this regular season's five-game series required overtime, and they've played four straight OT playoff games against the Blackhawks in St. Louis. Chicago went 4-1 in overtime games in last season's playoffs en route to its third Stanley Cup in six seasons.

The well-tested Blackhawks felt they played well Wednesday, and the return of Keith should provide a big boost. The 2015 Conn Smythe winner served the final game of a six-game suspension for high-sticking Minnesota's Charlie Coyle on March 29.

'We're happy to have him back,' coach Joel Quenneville said. 'He gives us some speed, he gives us a lot of different looks and a lot of other options.'

Crawford was sharp with 17 saves in just his second game back from nearly a month-long absence due to a head injury, but the Blackhawks went 0 for 5 on the power play.

Hitchcock called Backes' goal "fluky."

'That's the type of goal that gets scored in overtime,' defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson said. 'But they deserved it too, and we've got to find a way to score.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Predators (41-27) at Ducks (46-25)

Date: April 15, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) After a 3 1/2-month sprint from the bottom of the NHL to the top of the Pacific Division, the Anaheim Ducks realize they don't get any chance to catch their breath.

A first-round matchup with the powerful Nashville Predators could undo all of that hard work in a hurry.

Two tough-nosed Western Conference teams meet in the first round beginning Friday night in Anaheim. Both are hoping to punctuate their midseason surges with playoff success.

'Anaheim, they're kind of like us,' Nashville center Mike Fisher said. 'They played really well down the stretch, the last half (of the season). A really good hockey team.'

The Ducks got home-ice advantage with their fourth straight Pacific Division title, but their rewards are 1,800-mile flights to Tennessee to face a dangerous opponent. Despite a midseason lull, Nashville stayed competitive in the brutal Central Division, finishing fourth with 96 points - 18 more than the Pacific's fourth-place team, Arizona.

Coach Bruce Boudreau sees a collision of strengths in this series, from the centers to the goalies.

'They're really strong down the middle,' Boudreau said. 'We think with (Ryan) Getzlaf, (Ryan) Kesler and (Nate) Thompson, we feel we're very strong down the middle. It'll be a very interesting contest there.'

The Predators have been known for stingy, defense-dominated strategies over the years, but second-year coach Peter Laviolette has injected offensive acumen into his club.

Meanwhile, the usually high-flying Ducks unexpectedly won the Jennings Trophy this season as the NHL's stingiest defensive team, repeatedly shutting down opponents in front of its stellar goalie tandem of John Gibson and Frederik Andersen.

'We're hopefully playing a brand of hockey that we want to play going into the playoffs here,' Getzlaf said. 'Any time you can limit scoring chances and those things, it (boosts) our chances to win.'

Here are some more things to watch when the clubs get it going at Honda Center:

LAST MEETING: The Ducks and Predators met in the first round of the 2011 playoffs, with Nashville earning the first playoff series victory in franchise history despite six goals from Anaheim's Teemu Selanne. Only three Ducks remain from that series: Getzlaf, Corey Perry and defenseman Cam Fowler. 'It was a tight series ... but it was a big series,' Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne said. The Predators reached the second round for the first time in franchise history, but have never gone farther.

RYJO EFFECT: The Predators go into the postseason with a true first-line center in Ryan Johansen for the first time in their nine playoff appearances. Nashville swapped defenseman Seth Jones to Columbus for Johansen on Jan. 6, and Johansen scored eight goals and 26 assists in 42 games with the Predators. Nashville ranked 18th averaging 2.55 goals per game, and was held to two goals or less in 21 games. Since the trade, Nashville ranked 11th, averaging 2.90 goals per game.

UNFAMILIAR FACES: These teams haven't met since Nov. 17, when Nashville finished the three-game season series with its second victory. Both teams have changed significantly since then, with Nashville adding Johansen and the Ducks picking up a wealth of complementary players, including high-scoring forward David Perron, who is expected to return from injury against the Preds. The Ducks also played largely terrible hockey until Christmas, when they dramatically righted their season. 'Obviously, they were struggling,' Nashville defenseman Shea Weber said. 'I think everyone around the league was kind of surprised how they were doing. We knew it was just a matter of time before they turned it around.'

THEY CALL HIM SCORESBERG: Forward Filip Forsberg led the Predators with 64 points and tied the franchise record with 33 goals this season. He also led the NHL with 12 goals in February, a stretch that coincided with the start of Nashville's team-record 14-game point streak.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

1st Round Cheat Sheet

SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread

No. 1 Cleveland (57-25 SU, 37-43-2 ATS vs. No. 8 Detroit (44-38 SU, 42-37-3 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (Pistons 3-1)
Nov. 17 Cavaliers at Pistons (+4.5) 104-99 Over (195.5)
Jan. 29 Cavaliers (-4) at Pistons 114-106 Over (207.5)
Feb. 22 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+9) 96-88 Under (207.5)
Apr. 13 Cavaliers vs. Pistons (+4) 112-110 Over (194)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Cleveland: 33-8-0, 20-21
Detroit: 26-15, 24-15-2

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Cleveland: 24-17, 17-22-2
Detroit: 18-23, 18-22

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Cleveland: 19-11 SU, 14-16 ATS, 15-14 O/U
Detroit: 17-11 SU, 15-12-1 ATS, 13-14-1 O/U

No. 2 Toronto (56-26 SU, 44-37-1 ATS) vs. No. 7 Indiana (45-37 SU, 42-40 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season Raptors (3-1)
Oct. 28 Raptors (-5.5) vs. Pacers 106-99 Over (199.5)
Dec. 14 Raptors at Pacers (-4.5) 106-90 Under (200)
Mar. 17 Raptors (+2) at Pacers 101-94 Under (203.5)
Apr. 8 Raptors (-5) vs. Pacers 111-98 Over (193.5)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Toronto: 32-9, 23-18
Indiana: 26-15, 21-20

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Toronto: 24-17, 21-19-1
Indiana: 19-22, 21-20

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Toronto: 21-9 SU, 16-14 ATS, 16-14 O/U
Indiana: 17-12 SU, 15-14 ATS, 11-18 O/U

No. 3 Miami (48-34 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) vs. No. 6 Charlotte (48-34 SU, 42-38-2 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (2-2)
Oct. 28 Heat (-6.5) vs. Hornets 104-94 Over (194)
Dec. 9 Heat at Hornets (+1) 99-81 Under (192)
Feb. 5 Heat (+4) at Hornets 98-95 Under (194.5)
Mar. 17 Heat vs. Hornets (+4.5) 109-106 Over (208)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Miami: 28-13, 20-20-1
Charlotte: 30-11, 21-18-2

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Miami: 20-21, 20-21
Charlotte: 18-23, 21-20

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Miami: 19-10 SU, 17-12 ATS, 16-13 O/U
Charlotte: 21-8 SU, 16-13 ATS, 16-13 O/U

No. 4 Atlanta (48-34 SU, 41-39-2 ATS) vs. No. 5 Boston (48-34 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season Hawks (3-1)
Nov. 13 Hawks at Celtics (+1.5) 106-93 Under (206.5)
Nov. 24 Hawks (-2.5) vs. Celtics 121-97 Over (204.5)
Dec. 18 Hawks (+3.5) at Celtics Won 109-101 Over (206.5)
Apr. 9 Hawks (-5) vs. Celtics Won 118-107 Over (207.5)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Atlanta: 27-14, 21-19-1
Boston: 28-13, 22-17-2

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Atlanta: 21-20, 20-20-1
Boston: 20-21, 19-22

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Boston: 16-11 SU, 11-16 ATS, 12-15 O/U
Atlanta: 17-10 SU, 15-12 ATS, 11-15-1 O/U

No. 1 Golden State (73-9 SU, 43-36-3 ATS) vs. No. 8 Houston (41-41 SU, 37-45 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (Warriors 3-0)
Oct. 30 Warriors (-1) at Rockets 112-92 Under (216.5)
Dec. 31 Warriors (-3.5) at Rockets 114-110 Over (211)
Feb. 9 Warriors (-14) vs. Rockets 123-110 Over (229.5)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Golden State: 39-2, 20-19-2
Houston: 23-18, 17-24

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Golden State: 34-7, 23-17-1
Houston: 18-23, 20-21

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Golden State: 25-5 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U
Houston: 14-13 SU, 14-13 ATS, 15-12 O/U

No. 2 San Antonio (67-15 SU, 43-38-1 ATS) vs. No. 7 Memphis (42-40 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (Spurs 4-0)
Nov. 21 Spurs (-8) vs. Grizzlies 92-82 Under (190)
Dec. 3 Spurs (-3) at Grizzlies 103-83 Over (183)
Mar. 25 Spurs (-13) vs. Grizzlies 110-104 Over (190.5)
Mar. 28 Spurs (-5.5) at Grizzlies 101-87 Under (193)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
San Antonio: 40-1, 22-18-1
Memphis: 26-15, 22-18-1

Away Records (SU/ATS)
San Antonio: 27-14, 21-20
Memphis: 16-25, 19-21-1

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
San Antonio: 22-7 SU, 10-19 ATS, 10-19 O/U
Memphis: 11-18 SU, 16-13 ATS, 16-13 O/U

No. 3 Oklahoma City (55-27 SU, 37-43-2 ATS) vs. No. 6 Dallas (42-40 SU, 44-37-1 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (Thunder 4-0)
Nov. 22 Thunder (-3.5) vs. Mavericks 117-114 Over (208.5)
Jan. 13 Thunder (-12.5) vs. Mavericks 108-89 Under (207)
Jan. 22 Thunder (-6.5) at Mavericks 109-106 Over (208)
Feb. 24 Thunder (-5.5) at Mavericks Won 116-103 Over (215)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
Oklahoma City: 32-9, 21-20
Dallas: 23-18, 22-18-1

Away Records (SU/ATS)
Oklahoma City: 23-18, 16-23-2
Dallas: 19-22, 22-19

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
Oklahoma City: 15-14 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 15-14 O/U
Dallas: 13-14 SU, 14-12-1 ATS, 14-13 O/U

No. 4 L.A. Clippers (53-29 SU, 40-38-4 ATS) vs. No. 5 Portland (44-38 SU, 44-38 ATS)

2015-16 Regular Season (Clippers 3-1)
Nov. 20 Clippers at Trail Blazers (-4.5) 91-102 Under (210)
Nov. 30 Clippers (-7) vs. Trail Blazers 102-87 Under (206)
Jan. 6 Clippers (-3.5) at Trail Blazers 109-98 Over (205.5)
Mar. 24 Clippers (-5.5) vs. Trail Blazers 96-94 Under (216)

Home Records (SU/ATS)
L.A. Clippers: 29-12, 20-20-1
Portland: 28-13, 21-20

Away Records (SU/ATS)
L.A. Clippers: 24-17, 20-18-3
Portland: 16-25, 23-18

Current Form (Record Since All-Star Break)
L.A. Clippers: 18-12 SU, 14-15 ATS, 10-19 O/U
Portland: 17-11 SU, 14-14 ATS, 15-13 O/U

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

1st Round Series Odds

Home Team listed first - Best of 7 Games (2-2-1-1-1)
(Opening Odds in parentheses)

Eastern Conference - First Round

Cleveland vs. Detroit
Cavaliers (-1600)
Pistons (+1000)

Toronto vs. Indiana
Raptors (-300)
Pacers (+250)

Miami vs. Charlotte
Heat (-175)
Hornets (+140)

Atlanta vs. Boston
Hawks (-150)
Celtics (+155)

Western Conference - First Round

Golden State vs. Houston
Warriors (-8500)
Rockets (+2100)

San Antonio vs. Memphis
Spurs (-10000)
Grizzlies (+2500)

Oklahoma City vs. Dallas
Thunder (-3000)
Mavericks (+1400)

L.A. Clippers vs. Portland
Clippers (-300)
Trail Blazers (+25)


Exact Game Props

Pistons vs. Cavaliers
5 Games Cavaliers Win 6/5
4 Games Cavaliers Win 3/1
6 Games Cavaliers Win 3/1
7 Games Cavaliers Win 4/1
6 Games Pistons Win 15/1
7 Games Pistons Win 20/1
5 Games Pistons Win 50/1
4 Games Pistons Win 100/1

Pacers vs. Raptors
5 Games Raptors Win 8/5
7 Games Raptors Win 3/1
6 Games Raptors Win 4/1
4 Games Raptors Win 6/1
6 Games Pacers Win 6/1
7 Games Pacers Win 10/1
5 Games Pacers Win 15/1
4 Games Pacers Win 30/1

Hornets vs. Heat
7 Games Heat Win 5/2
5 Games Heat Win 7/2
6 Games Hornets Win 7/2
6 Games Heat Win 4/1
7 Games Hornets Win 5/1
4 Games Heat Win 10/1
5 Games Hornets Win 10/1
4 Games Hornets Win 18/1

Celtics vs. Hawks
7 Games Hawks Win 3/1
5 Games Hawks Win 7/2
6 Games Celtics Win 4/1
6 Games Hawks Win 4/1
7 Games Celtics Win 5/1
4 Games Hawks Win 10/1
5 Games Celtics Win 10/1
4 Games Celtics Win 18/1

Rockets vs. Warriors
4 Games Warriors Win 2/7
5 Games Warriors Win 7/5
6 Games Warriors Win 10/1
7 Games Warriors Win 25/1
7 Games Rockets Win 100/1
6 Games Rockets Win 150/1
5 Games Rockets Win 500/1
4 Games Rockets Win 1500/1

Grizzlies vs. Spurs
4 Games Spurs Win 1/4
5 Games Spurs Win 8/5
6 Games Spurs Win 8/1
7 Games Spurs Win 25/1
7 Games Grizzlies Win 150/1
6 Games Grizzlies Win 200/1
5 Games Grizzlies Win 500/1
4 Games Grizzlies Win 2000/1

Mavericks vs. Thunder
5 Games Thunder Win 6/5
4 Games Thunder Win 8/5
6 Games Thunder Win 4/1
7 Games Thunder Win 6/1
6 Games Mavericks Win 25/1
7 Games Mavericks Win 40/1
5 Games Mavericks Win 100/1
4 Games Mavericks Win 250/1

Blazers vs. Clippers
5 Games Clippers Win 8/5
7 Games Clippers Win 14/5
6 Games Clippers Win 4/1
4 Games Clippers Win 6/1
6 Games Blazers Win 7/1
7 Games Blazers Win 8/1
5 Games Blazers Win 20/1
4 Games Blazers Win 40/1

Odds Subject to Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

1st Round Betting Angles
By Marc Lawrence

Opening Round Betting Strategies

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four time-tested proven theories that have lined our pocket during the opening round of playoffs since 1991.

Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 straight up) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to the second round of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 against the spread, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of 4 or more points in their last game.

Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than 8 points..

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.

Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.

And if these same guys are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.

And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.

Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.

Enjoy the opening round of the 2016 NBA playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

First Round Predictions

The 16-team field for the NBA Playoffs was finalized on Wednesday with Houston clinching the eighth and final seed in the Western Conference. Unfortunately for the Rockets, they’ll open the postseason against the defending champion Golden State Warriors.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving Houston much of a chance in this series and NBA handicapper Tony Mejia doesn’t believe we’ll see any shockers in the West.

Mejia explained, “I wouldn't advise anyone to take a shot at a Western Conference upset, series price-wise. Although the Warriors/Rockets could've conceivably been a conference finals on paper when the season began, 82 doses of reality should've slapped you in the face enough to know an upset isn't coming there.”

“The Grizzlies were swept out of the 2013 conference finals by the Spurs last time these teams met in the playoffs, and they're spiraling towards a similar fate without Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. Rick Carlisle is calling his team the "masking tape" Mavs given their journey this season, but even his elite coaching isn't likely to make a dent against OKC unless he takes Billy Donovan completely apart and Dirk Nowitzki suddenly looks a decade younger.”

“That leaves the Clips and Blazers as the best spot for an upset, but if Blake Griffin continues to quickly round into shape, there's little chance of that either.”

Editor and NBA contributor Chris David echoes Mejia’s thoughts in the West but he’s more confident with the top quartet. He said, “The top four seeds in the West were all but locked in by the All-Star break and I look at this first round as nothing but a formality. The NBA has always been a top-heavy league and the disparity in the West between 1-4 and 5-8 is huge. I did give some thought about Portland being able to steal one at home to the Clippers but Los Angeles should be able to exploit the frontcourt of the Trail Blazers and break out the broom.”

Based on the series prices, the oddsmakers expect the Eastern Conference to be more competitive, especially in two of the matchups.

Kevin Rogers, a NBA handicapper and contributor on VI, is intrigued by the 4-5 matchup in the East and believes bettors will see a seven-game series. Rogers explained, “The most interesting series in the first round takes place between the Hawks and Celtics. Atlanta took a step backwards this season after capturing the top seed in the East last season, as the Hawks needed six games in each of the first two rounds against the Nets and Wizards. Boston drew Cleveland last season as an inexperienced playoff team and was predictably swept. The Celtics lost three of four meetings with the Hawks this season with the two road losses coming by double-digits. Neither team has a bevy of All-Stars and the matchup is all but even on paper, but Atlanta’s homecourt edge should help its cause.”

Similar to Mejia and Rogers, David is buying the Hawks, Raptors and Cavaliers in the first round but he’s the lone 'capper backing the Hornets. Why?

David answered, "I can certainly make an argument for Miami in this series as well but I believe Charlotte matches up better and a big part of my handicapping is current form. Outside of the Warriors and Spurs, the Hornets posted the best record (21-8) in the second-half of the season and that includes a 10-6 road mark. Plus, they’ve only dropped back-to-back games once during this span. Miami’s homecourt advantage isn’t as strong as past seasons and outside of Wade, the Heat aren’t exactly playoff tested. One number that also jumped out at me was Charlotte’s perfect record in overtime 5-0 and I’m guessing we’ll see at least one of these games go to an extra session.”

Below are each analyst’s predictions for all eight opening round series:

Eastern Conference

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

1 Cleveland vs. 8 Detroit
4-0
4-2
4-0
2 Toronto vs. 7 Indiana
4-2
4-3
4-3
3 Miami vs. 6 Charlotte
4-2
4-2
4-2
4 Atlanta vs. 5 Boston
4-3
4-2
4-3

Western Conference

Matchup Kevin Rogers Chris David Tony Mejia

1 Golden State vs. 8 Houston
4-1
4-0
4-1
2 San Antonio vs. 7 Memphis
4-0
4-0
4-0
3 Oklahoma City vs. 6 Dallas
4-1
4-0
4-1
4 L.A. Clippers vs. 5 Portland
4-1
4-0
4-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Playoff Opening Round Betting Strategies
By MARC LAWRENCE

With help from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of the NBA playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say.

No. 8 Seeds Are Behind The 8-Ball

For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents but just barely better than the dregs of the league.

Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 70% of time (54-133 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoffs.

And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch like an roaming 8-ball in the side pocket, going 4-25 SU and 9-20 ATS, including 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS whenever the 8-ballers are off a spread loss of four or more points in their last game.


Upset Losers Are Winners

No, it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.

That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 90-24 SU and 68-42-4, a rock solid number. And if they are squaring off against a No. 6 or lower seed they improve to 48-6 SU and 38-16-2 ATS – including 15-2-2 ATS when favored by less than eight points.

Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. They don’t lose their composure, instead they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.


Double-Digit Dogma

Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 32-17-2 ATS in this role.

If these same teams are involved in a game with the Over/Under total set at 193 or higher they zoom to 26-7 ATS, including 19-3 ATS when facing a non-division foe.

Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies, but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.


And Down Goes Frazier

The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a three game-exact loss skein are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.

With glass-like jaws, these swirling teams are just 46-63 SU and 44-61-4 ATS away from home this round, including 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in lid-lifters.

Worst of all, road dogs of more than six points on a three game exact losing skid are 3-27 SU and 8-22 ATS on their way to the canvas.


Trending

Defending champions (the Golden State Warriors in this case) are 74-33 SU and 59-44-4 ATS in opening round games the next season, including 16-8 SU and 15-8-1 ATS in Game One of Round One. They are, however, just 5-9 ATS as double-digit chalk in this round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'EC Quarterfinal'

Second-seeded Toronto Raptors off a franchise best 56-26 (45-37 ATS) campaign take on seventh-seeded Indiana Pacers earning their postseason spot behind a 45-37 record (41-40-1 ATS). According to the current opening number the Raptors are handing Pacers 6.0 points of offense in this early Saturday afternoon matchup at the Air Canada Center.

Raptors lead by DeMar DeRozan (23.5), Kyle Lowry (21.2) are netting 102.7 points/game on 45.0% from the field, 37.0% from long range, 77.7% from the charity line. Defensively, Raptors rank third in points allowed at 98.2 and 11th in defensive field goal percentage (44.4 %).

Pacers ranked 17th in scoring at 102.2 points/game share the wealth with five players in double digits lead by Paul George (23.1). At the other end, Pacers are eighth overall in points allowed (100.6 ppg) holding opponents to 44.0% from the field and a stellar third in three-point defense at 33.4%.

A Raptors team intent on erasing the bad taste of last year's 0-4 SU/ATS drubbing in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal does not bode well for the Pacers in this opener. Consider laying the points. Toronto was a sparkling 32-9 (23-18 ATS) on home court this season, Pacers were an unimpressive 19-22 (21-20 ATS) on enemy hardwood. Additionally, Toronto has had the edge in this series, winning three of four this season (3-1 ATS) and six of the past seven encounters (6-1 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Pistons Provide Cleveland's First Playoff Hurdle

The Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25, 37-42-3 ATS) will host the Detroit Pistons (44-38, 42-38-2 ATS) this weekend in Game 1 of their first-round series. Detroit took three out of four SU/ATS vs. Cleveland this season including Wednesday night's 112-110 OT win at Quicken Loans Arena as 4.0-point road dogs. However, Cavaliers sat LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and J.R. Smith for the home finale.

Detroit is in postseason for the first time since 2008-09, when they were swept in the opening round by Cleveland dropping the cash in each contest. Pistons could be in for another quick exit, Lebron James is 13-0 (10-3 ATS) in his last thirteen Conference Quarterfinals games with Cleveland and Miami.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

It is not often we have a Grade 1 race on a Friday, but that is the case this afternoon with the $300,000 Maker’s 46 Mile at Keeneland, a one-mile test on turf for four-year-olds and upward.

Heart to Heart comes into the race off three consecutive gate to wire scores, winning the River City Handicap (G3), Ft. Lauderdale (G2) and the Canadian Turf (G3), earning Beyer Speed Figures of 104 in each victory.

That looks imposing but the presence of the speedy Shining Copper makes for an interesting pace scenario. The Chad Brown trained Shining Copper set the early fractions and was nailed late, missing by a neck in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1), his first start since a 11trh place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

The possibility of a speed duel may set things up for my top pick in Reload, with the 6-1 morning line looking tempting. The Shug McGaughey trainee got up late to win the Tampa Bay (G3) last out in his first start off nearly a three-month break.

Coming up on Saturday Cupid will lead the field in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park, the last major Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

Cupid won the Rebel (G2) in his last start and likely will be the sixth consecutive year that trainer Bob Baffert has sent off the betting favorite in the race.

American Pharoah went off at 1-9 last year, Bayern was in third at 3-2 in 2014, War Academy was 9-5 in 2013 but did not finish, Bodemeister was 2-1 in his victory in 2012, and The Factor was seventh at 4-5 in 2011.

I will have selections for the race in Saturday’s column along with the $150,000 Lexington (G3) from Keeneland, which offers up 10-4-2-1 Derby points but not likely to have an impact on the Kentucky Derby field.


Here is today’s opener from Keeneland to get the day off to a good start:

KEE Race 1 Clm $20,000B (1:05 ET)
#1 Nyoman 5-1
#6 Tale of Honor 3-1
#4 Kutuzov 3-1
#5 Whyruawesome 5-2

Analysis: Nyoman cuts back from seven furlongs where last out at Tampa Bay Downs the gelding dueled for the early lead and weakened late to finish third against $25,000 non-winners of three, beaten three lengths. He draws the rail here and owns a solid pace profile throughout with good early and mid pace numbers. His best puts him in the hunt here and his 5-1 morning line looks fair enough.

Tale of Honor went gate to wire to bet $15,000 non-winners of two last out at Oaklawn Park and steps up a notch here to the non-winners of three level. He has rounded into sharp form for the Mason barn that claimed this guy for $25,000 four back, improving in his last two starts after getting outrun in his first go for the barn. A logical threat in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 1,6 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 The Maker's Mark G1 (5:30 ET)
#9 Reload 6-1
#4 Tourist 7-2
#3 Heart to Heart 3-1
#7 Shining Copper 7-2

Analysis: Reload made a good late rally to get up late and win the Tampa Bay (G3) last out in his first go off a 2 1/2 month break. The runner up Take the Stand came back to win the Muniz Memorial 'Cap (G2) at Fair Grounds in his next start on March 26. The seven-year-old should get a good pace set up here as there are a couple of runners in here that can keep the streaking Heart to Heart honest early.

Tourist makes his first start since running eighth in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1). The Mott barn is 14% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. The five-year-old was beaten just a head and a neck two back in the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) over the turf here. He has run well fresh in the past and should get a good tracking trip sitting just off the pace.

Heart to Heart has won three in a row in gate to wire fashion earning solid numbers, last out taking the Canadian Turf (G3). He looks tough but is going to feel more pressure here than he did in his last couple of starts.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 4,9 / 3,4,7,9
TRI: 4,9 / 3,4,7,9 / 1,3,4,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Keeneland
R2: #6 Bump Start 8-1
R3: #7 Kingston Terrace 8-1
R4: #3 Bonnie Blue Eyes 8-1
R5: #6 Silent Mission 8-1
R5: #8 Peppermint Zip 10-1
R6: #11 Construe 8-1
R7: #1 Makin’ Sense 20-1
R8: #12 The Sandman 8-1
R10: #5 Howling Mad Smith 10-1

Good luck today!