Basketball bettors can get hurt handicapping big-name NBA injuries
By JOE FORTENBAUGH
The sports foundation of the city of Chicago was rocked to its core on Tuesday night when the news surfaced that three-time All-Star point guard Derrick Rose would likely miss the remainder of the 2014-2015 season with a medial meniscus tear in his right knee. Almost instantaneously, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas adjusted its NBA title odds to reflect the loss of Rose, moving the Bulls from 8/1 to win the championship to 20/1.
The injury to Rose is just the latest in a wave of ailments to plague some of the league’s brightest superstars. Miami power forward Chris Bosh was recently diagnosed with blood clots in his lungs that could keep the two-time champion away from American Airlines Arena for the rest the year, while Oklahoma City small forward Kevin Durant is out indefinitely after undergoing a procedure to replace a screw in his foot that was seriously ailing the six-time All-Star.
On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers were more than ecstatic to welcome LaMarcus Aldridge back to the starting lineup Wednesday night for the team’s marquee showdown with the San Antonio Spurs after the power forward missed Sunday’s game against Memphis with a right thumb sprain.
Injuries to NBA superstars, major or minor, tend to have a significant effect on both the pointspread and total. For example, the Bulls opened offshore on Tuesday afternoon as a 9-point favorite for Wednesday night’s home date with the Charlotte Hornets before the Rose announcement forced an adjustment all the way to Chicago -6.5.
The key for gamblers, however, is to determine whether the line movement in these situations is an overreaction to the injury news or an accurate reflection of the updated market.
“Players are evaluated on not only what they mean to their team but what the makeup of the other personnel on the team is,” Johnny Avello, Executive Director of Race & Sports at the Wynn Las Vegas said. “If Kevin Durant is out, Russell Westbrook becomes more of the offensive show and guys like D.J. Augustin and Dion Waiters can pick up the slack. Therefore, Durant may only be worth three points to the line, whereas an injury to Chris Bosh may be worth as many as five points because of what’s surrounding him.”
Of course, bettors must first take into account whether or not the injury news they have discovered is still flying below the radar or already accounted for.
“If bettors find out that a player is out before we do, we’ll definitely see a bet,” said Avello. “If we get the information first, the line is adjusted and it usually means slower action on that specific game.”
Take for example the January 5, 2012 matchup that saw the Miami Heat travel to Atlanta for a showdown with Josh Smith and the Hawks. Miami opened in the neighborhood of a 6-point favorite, but a few hours before tipoff it was announced that LeBron James and Dwayne Wade would not play for the Heat in order to catch up on some much-needed rest. The subsequent announcement that two-thirds of the “Big Three” would not suit up that evening triggered an overreaction by the betting public, which drove the price of the game down to a closing line of Miami -1.
The final result? Chris Bosh and the Heat prevailed 116-109 in overtime.
Will the same type of overreaction take place to the aforementioned teams that have lost superstar talent for the foreseeable future?
Chicago Bulls: While the loss of Rose serves as a devastating blow to Chicago’s title chances, it’s worth noting that this situation is nothing new for head coach Tom Thibodeau and the Bulls. Rose appeared in just 21.3 percent of Chicago’s regular season contests in the three seasons prior to this year, with the Bulls covering the number in just 48 percent of those contests without Rose (87-94) and 59.1 percent with their star point guard (29-20).
During the 2012-2013 campaign that Rose missed in its entirety, Chicago went 36-46 ATS during the regular season. The Bulls may be in familiar territory here with Rose out of the lineup, but that doesn’t mean they’ll find a way to cover the spread on a consistently profitable basis.
Oklahoma City Thunder: The best time to ride the Thunder may be when Durant is out of the lineup thanks to the overreaction that takes place on behalf of the betting market. When the OKC star missed the first 17 games of the season his team still managed to post a 9-7-1 mark against the spread.
However, since Durant has been back in action, the Thunder have gone just 19-20-1 ATS. That isn’t a huge discrepancy, but it speaks to how good of a team this can be with Russell Westbrook running the show on his own.
Miami Heat: In the 44 games the Heat have played with Chris Bosh on the floor this season, the team is averaging 96.4 points per game while surrendering an average of 96.0 points for a grand total of 192.4 points per contest. In the 12 games Miami has taken the court without Bosh, the club is averaging 92.7 points per game while permitting an average of 96.8 points per game for a grand point scoring total of 189.5 points per contest.
Defensively, this team is giving up just .8 points per game more without Bosh in the lineup, but offensively the Heat are scoring 3.7 fewer points per outing. That indicates a Bosh-less lineup would be more inclined to go Under the total while at the same time struggling to cover the number as a favorite.
