Friday 12/5/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

German Bundesliga 1 TODAY 19:30

B Dortmund

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Hoffenheim

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTX		8/15	7/2	9/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT B DORTMUND	RECENT FORM
ALHWHWADALAL​ Most recent​	3 - 2 1 - 2 3 - 1 1 - 1	HWHWALHLALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Dortmund have kept one league clean sheet this season

EXPERT VERDICT: It is quite staggering to see Borussia Dortmund bottom of the Bundesliga but they are not being priced up as a struggling side which is probably correct seeing as it is a matter of time before they climb the table. Hoffenheim will fancy their chances of scoring but Dortmund can edge themselves to victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Dortmund to win 2-1
1

 

[superbeets]

Italian Serie A TODAY 19:45

Fiorentina

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Juventus

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN		5/2	9/4	11/10	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FIORENTINA	RECENT FORM
ALHDHLAWAWAW​ Most recent​	0 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 0 0 - 5	AWHWHWAWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Juventus’s seven away league games have produced 13 goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Juventus could be forgiven for having one eye on their huge Champions League clash with Atletico but there is no love lost between these two clubs and this is also a big contest. Fiorentina are lacking a forward threat but can be difficult to break down and Juventus will have to work hard for the victory.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Juventus double result
1

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Premiership TODAY 19:45

Ross County

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Dundee Utd

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1		10/3	13/5	4/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ROSS COUNTY	RECENT FORM
HLADHLAWALAL​ Most recent​	3 - 0 2 - 4 1 - 0 1 - 2	ALAD*HWALHWAW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ross have lost six of their last seven home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Ross County have given themselves a chance of avoiding the drop after starting the season with seven straight defeats, but they still have plenty of work to do and will not envy a visit from Dundee United who are pushing Celtic all the way at the top of the table. This is a good chance for the visitors to end a run of three straight league away defeats.

RECOMMENDATION: Dundee United
2


REFEREE: Bobby Madden STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Championship TODAY 19:45

Fulham

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Watford

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		5/4	13/5	2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FULHAM	RECENT FORM
HLADHDHWALAW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 2 - 0 5 - 0 1 - 2	ADHWALALHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Fulham have won five of their last seven home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Fulham are much improved under Kit Symons and can continue on an upward curve by beating Watford. The Hornets are in the midst of an alarming slump having suffered four straight defeats and will do well to stop a side who have scored 17 goals in their last seven fixtures at Craven Cottage..

RECOMMENDATION: Fulham
2

 

[superbeets]

English FA Cup TODAY 19:55

Hartlepool

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Blyth Sptns

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC2		11/8	7/2	11/8	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HARTLEPOOL	RECENT FORM
ALHDHWALHLHL​ Most recent​	5 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 1	AWHWHDALHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Blyth have lost just two of their last 11 away fixtures

EXPERT VERDICT: Three divisions separate League Two strugglers Hartlepool from Evo-Stik North side Blyth Spartans but there might not be much to choose between them in the FA Cup. Blyth overcame a two-tier gap to beat Altrincham 4-1 in the first round and can match a Pools side who are deep in relegation trouble.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Andy Madley STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grand Salami - December

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
12/1 5 26.5 31 OVER
12/2 10 55.5 45 UNDER
12/3 4 21 22 OVER
12/4 11 60.5 65 OVER
12/5 3 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Canadiens (17-8) at Blackhawks (16-8)

Date: December 05, 2014 8:30 PM EDT

The Chicago Blackhawks' recent stretch has seen them roll through some of the best the Western Conference can offer.

One of the East's top teams has seen in person just how formidable they can be.

The Montreal Canadiens look to avenge last month's blowout loss to the red-hot Blackhawks and re-establish their dominance following a rough patch Friday night in Chicago.

The Blackhawks (16-8-1) have won a season-high four straight and nine of 11 after taking care of Central Division-leading St. Louis 4-1 on Wednesday. Their previous two victories were by the same score, beating defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles and West-leading Anaheim.

"We've been playing the right way, particularly lately," coach Joel Quenneville said. "Eventually, you get your turn."

Wednesday marked Chicago's return home after a 10-day, six-game road trip which included five victories. The Blackhawks have averaged 4.7 goals in the last eight games, compared to 2.5 through their first 17.

"We have way more pace to our game," Quenneville said. "Way more directness, way more consistency, better thought process. Everybody's excited right now.

"We got some momentum and everybody's having fun with it. We came together on that trip and got it going."

Patrick Kane has led the charge with eight goals and seven assists over his last nine games after scoring twice Wednesday. Linemate Kris Versteeg assisted on both of Kane's goals and has 14 points in his last eight contests.

Brad Richards has also displayed the talent level Chicago hoped to see after signing the 34-year-old center in the offseason. Richards has three goals and two assists in his last three games. He had only three goals through his first 22 games.

Richards, Kane and Versteeg all scored against Carey Price in a 5-0 win at Montreal on Nov. 4.

The Canadiens (17-8-2) bounced back from that game to win six straight and Price has since posted a 1.71 goals-against average, but his team heads into the rematch in a funk. Montreal has dropped four of five to lose its lead atop the East, including a 2-1 defeat in Minnesota on Wednesday behind just 19 shots.

"When we have success, it's for a reason: we're all on the same page and we all play a certain way," club points leader Max Pacioretty said. "When we get away from that, we're just another team. When we play the way we're capable of ... that's when we have success and that's when we're a great team."

The primary reason for the Canadiens' recent woes has been their offensive shortcomings. Montreal's already average offense, which scored 2.68 goals per game through the season's first 19, has averaged 1.88 in the last eight.

Tomas Plekanec ranks second on the team with 18 points but has one in the past five games. David Desharnais, who had 16 goals last season, has scored one in his last 20 games.

Patrick Sharp led Chicago with 34 goals last season but hasn't played since suffering a knee injury in the first meeting with Montreal. Sharp skated with the team this week, though, and may return Friday.

Chicago's Antti Raanta performed well Wednesday with 40 saves in place of Corey Crawford (foot) and will likely start Friday as well.

Montreal has lost all four of its visits to the United Center since winning there Feb. 27, 2002.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rare game with no rest for Avalanche
Justin Hartling

The Colorado Avalanche have only played with no rest three times this season and they have lost all three of those games. The Avs lost all three of those games with a final score of 3-2, twice in regulation and once in overtime.

Colorado goalies have managed to play well, with a .922 save percentage in those games.

The Avs will travel to Winnipeg on no days rest Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DINERO
TALKS

NBA 1st Quarter Report

Now that the Philadelphia 76ers have finally won a game, the NBA season can actually begin.

Ironically, they picked up their first win in 18 tries on the same night Brooklyn finally beat a team with a winning record, taking down San Antonio. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker had rested Monday in Philly. The Nets were playing the second of a back-to-back.

Parlaying those money lines would've paid handsomely. Losing on both, like some of us, certainly provided an unpleasant surprise.

In the spirit of the Oklahoma City Thunder's current predicament, there's nothing to be gained by looking back now. There's no choice but to concentrate on the long road ahead.

Reigning MVP Kevin Durant is back, updated future odds have been released and it's time to move on to things that are more predictable.


Odds to win 2014-15 NBA MVP

Favorites: LeBron James 7/5, Anthony Davis 3/1, Stephen Curry 3/1, Blake Griffin 10/1, Marc Gasol 10/1

Solid options: Chris Paul 20/1, James Harden 20/1, LaMarcus Aldridge 20/1, Demarcus Cousins 25/1

Longshots: Carmelo Anthony 50/1, Derrick Rose 50/1, Kevin Love 50/1, Dwight Howard 75/1, Damian Lillard 100/1, DeMar DeRozan 100/1, John Wall 100/1, Kobe Bryant 100/1

Bank on: Curry is the guy to get behind. On the court, he's dominating as both a scorer and distributor. Off the court, you're starting to see him in more commercials, becoming more popular on social media, generally increasing his profile to another stratosphere. If the Warriors continue to win big, hanging around the West's top four, he can overcome both James and Davis, the only other realistic front-runners through the season's opening month.


Odds to Win 2014-15 Rookie of the Year

Favorites: Jabari Parker (MIL) 10/11, Andrew Wiggins (MIN) 4/1

Solid options: Bojan Bogdanovic (BRK) 11/2, Nerlens Noel (PHI) 11/2, Dante Exum (UTA) 12/1, K.J. McDaniels (PHI) 12/1

Top longshots: Shabazz Napier (MIA) 14/1, Nikola Mirotic (CHI) 15/1, Tarik Black (HOU) 22/1

Bank on: Parker and Wiggins continue to be the likely choices, since the top two picks are the only ones who consistently are showcased as the focal point of their current squads. Since Parker has had the more consistent numbers and shown the steadiest improvement, it would be surprising to see him not continue improving. Mix in the Bucks surprising record and the fact that the Timberwolves will eventually get their injured starters back, diminishing Wiggins' role, and the No. 2 pick emerges as the clear choice.


Odds to win 2015 NBA Finals (Odds on 10/27/14 --Current Odds)


Favorites: Cleveland Cavaliers 5/2--13/4, San Antonio Spurs 15/4--9/2, Golden State Warriors 16/1--6/1, Oklahoma City Thunder 7/1--9/1

Solid options: Chicago Bulls 6/1--17/2, Dallas Mavericks 16/1--12/1, Los Angeles Clippers 17/2--12/1, Memphis Grizzlies 50/1--12/1, Toronto Raptors 50/1--14/1, Houston Rockets 22/1--16/1, Portland Trail Blazers 40/1--22/1

Top longshots: Washington Wizards 33/1--28/1, Miami Heat 50/1--50/1, New Orleans Pelicans 100/1--66/1, Phoenix Suns 100/1--66/1, Atlanta Hawks 100/1--75/1, Sacramento Kings 250/1--75/1

No chance: Brooklyn Nets 66/1--100/1, Denver Nuggets 100/1--150/1, Los Angeles Lakers 75/1--200/1, New York Knicks 50/1--200/1, Boston Celtics 200/1--300/1, Charlotte Hornets 66/1--300/1, Indiana Pacers 66/1--300/1, Milwaukee Bucks 300/1--300/1, Orlando Magic 200/1--500/1, Utah Jazz 300/1--500/1, Detroit Pistons 200/1--1000/1, Minnesota Timberwolves 300/1--1000/1, Philadelphia 76ers 500/1--5000/1

Bank on: Of the favorites, the Spurs look like the best bet. With Cleveland still figuring things out, GSW still having to prove it can climb the mountain and OKC scrambling just to make the playoffs, the defending champs getting 9/2 is definitely a smart choice. The L.A. Clippers, Memphis and Portland would each net a nice return and seem to have all the tools to win 16 postseason games.


Divisional Odds

Odds to win 2015 Atlantic Division: Toronto Raptors 1/10, Brooklyn Nets 6/1

Bank on: So long as Kyle Lowry is running the show, the Raps will roll as the best of a bad division. Toronto will probably lose a few more games with DeMar DeRozan out, but have already built up an insurmountable cushion given the mediocrity in the division.

Odds to win 2015 Central Division: Cleveland Cavaliers 5/6, Chicago Bulls 1/1, Milwaukee Bucks 25/1, Indiana Pacers 40/1

Bank on: Derrick Rose being day-to-day still makes it a challenge to back the Bulls, but Jimmy Butler's emergence and the fact they can now play through Pau Gasol makes them the favorite here over the Cavs, who still lack a rim protector and will struggle defensively until they get one.

Odds to win 2015 Southeast Division: Washington Wizards 1/2, Miami Heat 3/1, Atlanta Hawks 4/1

Bank on: Given the odds, it wouldn't be a bad investment to back the Hawks. Dennis Schroder has made great strides and can now better spell Jeff Teague on the second unit, Al Horford is healthy and collaborating nicely up front with Paul Millsap and the ball movement is crisp, usually resulting in good shots. The Wizards are up for now, but Atlanta has a great chance to take the Southeast.

Odds to win 2015 Southwest Division: San Antonio Spurs 6/5, Dallas Mavericks 3/1, Memphis Grizzlies 3/1, Houston Rockets 5/1

Bank on: The Grizzlies look like the top play here, even above the favored Spurs. Tony Parker is still fighting himself this season, dealing with nagging injuries and nights where he just can't find it, which really affects what San Antonio can consistently do during the regular season given the diminished importance the organization puts on it. The Grizzlies play championship defense on a nightly basis, which is key to emerging as top dog in the NBA's most loaded division.

Odds to win 2015 Northwest Division: Portland Trail Blazers 1/4, Oklahoma City Thunder 5/2

Bank on: The Thunder are in too large a hole to consider here, so even though it might be enticing now that they finally have all 15 players healthy, the Blazers have too large a lead and are too loaded to pick against. Count on Portland being a top-four seed in the Western Conference.

Odds to win 2015 Pacific Division: Golden State Warriors 4/7, Los Angeles Clippers 7/5, Phoenix Suns 20/1, Sacramento Kings 50/1

Bank on: Now is the time to hop in on the Clippers if you're going to. Sure, we all love Curry and believe the Warriors are definitely a legitimate championship threat, but after a puzzling start where the team looked disjointed, Doc Rivers has gotten his team to better trust one another, resulting in wins in eight of nine games to stay right behind GSW through its current 10-game winning streak.


Hoop Props to Watch


Will the Thunder Make the Playoffs in the 2014-2015 Season? Yes EVEN (1/1), No -140 (5/7)

Bank on: The Suns currently take up residence in the No. 8 spot with a 5.5-game lead, so by no means is the edge they have over the Thunder insurmountable. In fact, the teams haven't faced one another yet and won't see each other for the first time until Dec. 14, so OKC can further control its destiny. I wouldn't bet against them. At even money, look for the Thunder to finish at No. 8.

Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more or less than their current projected total of 9.5 wins?

Bank on: Unless they allow Joel Embiid to play in 2015 and he hits the ground running, there's no way the 76ers reach a double-digit victory total. Ride the under.

Will the Kentucky Wildcats finish the 2014-15 NCAA Basketball Season Undefeated (no losses in regular or post season)

Bank on: Riding John Calipari's Wildcats to a perfect season would currently net you a 7-to-1 payoff at Sportsbook.ag, but I'd hop in on playing contrarian here while you have the chance. Although the odds are just 1-to-12, they happen to be that for a reason. Plainly, it's nearly impossible to come out unscathed after taking everyone's best punch in a college basketball season. We're closing in on 40 years since Bob Knight-led Indiana last accomplished the feat in 1976, and I think that record is safe. Kentucky will lose at least once this season and probably will fall multiple times. Don't get it twisted, though. They still remain the best bet to win a national championship.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Celtics remain the top over play in NBA
Justin Hartling

No team in the NBA has a higher over rate than the Boston Celtics, who have currently been topping the total at a rate of 75 percent. Of their 16 games this season, the Celtics have gone over in 12.

Boston has scored an average of 103.8 points this season, while allowing 107.3 points this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Only one under on the road for Pacers
Justin Hartling

The Indiana Pacers are 8-1 over/under on the road this season. The Pacers have been allowing an average of 99 points per game on the road this season, while allowing at least 100 points in their last four games away from home.

Indiana will travel to Portland Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Nets have been one of the top under plays
Justin Hartling

The Brooklyn Nets have gone under in nine of their past 10 games, including their past six in a row. The Nets have averaged 94.4 points per game, while allowing 99.1 ppg during that 10 game stretch.

Brooklyn will host the Atlanta Hawks Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'DINO-MIGHT'

The Raptors off a 123-104 victory at Utah return to the friendly confines of Air Canada Centre where they'll host LeBron and his Cavaliers. Raptors will once again be without the services of DeMar DeRozan in the lineup. But, Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez picking up the slack Toronto remains one of the most consistent teams in the league ranked in the top tier in offensive efficiency netting 112.4 per 100 possessions. Raps will have their hands full, Caves are slowly but surely starting to gel and have won 5 straight since their loss to the Raptors back on November 22nd. Still, we expect Raptors send a message to Cleveland that the best team in the East is Toronto. Consider Raptors knowing Cavaliers will be playing tonight without rest and that scheduling advantage is in Toronto's favor, as Purple Dino's are on a profitable 11-2 ATS streak when rested and playing an un-rested opponent. Also, the Cavaliers fall into a negative, team-based situation, as they're 1-3 ATS this season after netting =< 90.0 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Kentucky is 7-0, with 71-52 win over Buffalo closest game (they were down 5 at half); Wildcats are forcing turnovers on 27.1% of possessions, holding teams to 28.8% INSIDE arc, while using its bench most of any team in country with 7th-youngest roster. Texas' PG is out hurt- they're also 7-0, with three top 60 wins, holding teams to 31.8% inside arc. Will be curious if they can hold their own on boards with Wildcats.

Young UConn (#306 in experience) is 3-2, losing last two games, by 10 to West Virginia, by point to Texas; Huskies' wins are by 13-8-12- they beat Yale 80-62 LY, making 11-17 from arc while Bulldogs shot 31.8% inside arc. Yale is 7-2 this year, losing by 6 to Providence in its only top 100 game- they've got road wins at Kent State and Bryant.

Home side won last four Providence-Boston College games; Friars lost last three visits here, by 5-2-3 points. Providence is 6-1 with wins over Florida State, Notre Dame; they lost by 20 to Kentucky last game- was 26-22 at half. Experienced Eagles are 3-3, losing three of four to top 100 teams, with only win by 4 over New Mexico on neutral floor.

Pitt won last 12 games wirh crosstown rival Duquesne, with last six wins by 9+ points; Panthers lost three of last four D-I games with upset loss at Hawai'i- their defense has slipped so far. Duquesne is 2-1 vs easiest schedule in country; #293 NJIT is best team they've played. Dukes have made 46.5% of 3-pointers, which is best %age in country.

First road game for 7-0 Wyoming whose best win was over Colorado by 23; Cowboys are shooting 66% inside arc against #339 schedule. SMU is 4-3, 1-3 against teams in top 120; they've turned ball over 21.1% of time, won four of five home games, losing to Arkansas. Five of Wyoming's last six wins were by 15+ points. Curious to see them play on road.

6-0 Louisville is in Ohio State/Indiana sandwich, is only playing Florida Int'l because Richard Pitino was coach there. Cardinals forces turnovers 26.6% of time, but they're not shooting well (26.3% from arc, 58.4% on line); how do they score if FIU breaks press? Panthers turn it over 19.8% of time (average); they haven't played a top 150 team yet this year.

3-3 Florida is 0-3 vs top 100 teams; best win was over #134 WmMary; Gators are shooting just 29.5% from arc, 44% inside it- they won 67-61 over Kansas LY in game that was 36-21 at half. Florida was +16 (24-8) in turnovers that day. Jayhawks won Orlando tourney, beating Michigan St by 5 in final, after they beat SEC's Tennessee 82-67 in semi-finals.

Missouri-Oklahoma used to be Big 12 rivals; this is first meeting since Mizzou bolted to SEC- they won last three games with Sooners by 23-38-3 points. Tigers are 4-3 with young team, new coach; they're 0-2 vs top 50 teams, losing by 19-21 points to Arizona/Purdue. Oklahoma lost Bahamas final to Wisconsin; they're 4-2, having played #28 schedule.

Manhattan won four of last five games with Fairfield, but lost six of last seven visits here; Jaspers are 1-4 after losing last game to George Mason by point- their only win was over #335 Binghamton. Fairfield is 2-5 vs #141 schedule; they're 0-4 vs top 200 teams, with nine points closest of those losses- best team they've beaten is #239 South Dakota.

Siena had an ugly 0-18 run in 69-67 loss at Fordham Monday; Saints lost only home game to Vermont by 8- they force turnovers 22.6% of time,. but are bad on defense if they don't force TOs. Saints split pair of close games with Quinnipiac LY, losing in OT here, winning on road by hoop. bobcays force least TOs in America, are #2 offensive rebounding club.

Youngstown thrashed South Dakota 85-59 at home LY; was 53-18 at the half. Penguins are 4-4 vs D-I teams, 0-4 vs top 200 teams, 4-0 vs teams outside top 200. #239 Coyotes won two Calfornia games on road, to get to 2-5 vs D-I teams; this is their first D-I home game. Both teams here are experienced. Coyotes won 68-65 in Northridge three nights ago.

Western Carolina has played #51 schedule; they're 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 10-6-15 points to two SEC teams and Georgia State. Western lost 96-89 game to East Tennessee 48 hours ago. Minnesota won in ACC challenge at Wake Forest; they're 3-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with wins by 22-18-15 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF MAC Championship Preview
By Joe Nelson

The MAC Championship matchup is the same as last season despite some major changes for both programs this season as Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will meet Friday night in Detroit. Bowling Green beat Northern Illinois last season to cost the Huskies a possible BCS bowl spot, but neither squad is as decorated this season. Here is a preview of the big game to close an exciting season in the conference.

Match-up: Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies
Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Date: Friday, December 5, 2014
Time/TV: 7:00 PM ET – ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -6½, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: 2013, Bowling Green (+3) 47-27

This is the fifth straight MAC Championship game for Northern Illinois and a chance to avenge last season’s loss to Bowling Green in the title game. The Huskies were 12-0 at this point last season with potentially a BCS bowl spot on the line heading into this game as a slight favorite. Bowling Green took control early with a 17-7 first quarter lead and the Huskies never got closer than four points in a 47-27 rout for the Falcons with 574 yards posted. Northern Illinois wound up in the Poinsettia Bowl where they lost to Utah State, while Bowling Green fell to Pittsburgh in the Little Caesar’s Bowl.

Bowling Green entered the season again as the favorites in the MAC East, but the program has gone through some major changes. After five solid seasons, Dave Clawson left Bowling Green to take over at Wake Forest. Dino Babers was hired to take over after two successful seasons at the FCS level at Eastern Illinois, while working his way up as a position coach at several prominent programs, notably at UCLA and Baylor. Babers brings an up-tempo pace to the offense and after a disastrous debut with a 59-31 loss to Western Kentucky, the Falcons posted a nice season at 7-5.

Bowling Green suffered a big blow early in the season as starting quarterback Matt Johnson was injured in that opener, but the Falcons still picked up a nice win over Indiana in non-conference play and wound up winning every game against the MAC East. The East was by far the weaker of the two MAC divisions this season with Bowling Green the only team to emerge with a winning record and the Falcons went 0-3 vs. the MAC West, though Northern Illinois was not on the schedule. Bowling Green limps into this game with back-to-back losses to close the season, but this is a difficult team to match up with as sophomore quarterback James Knapke had a number of strong performances and the offense has great rush/pass balance while scoring nearly 31 points per game.

Bowling Green has struggled defensively, allowing more points and yards than produced on the season and surrendering 6.1 yards per play. The run defense will be tested against the Huskies and compared with last season, Bowling Green is 198 points worse in scoring differential in conference games as last year’s squad was a truly dominant unit, especially on defense by MAC standards. The same type of decline can be seen for Northern Illinois as while the coaching staff remained, losing Heisman Trophy candidate Jordan Lynch was difficult and the Huskies were not nearly as impressive as past seasons despite another strong record. The Huskies were 142 points worse in MAC point differential compared with last season as both of these teams failed to match the success from 2013 despite doing enough to return to this title game.

Northern Illinois remains a viable rushing team, averaging 49 attempts and 246 yards per game on the ground. Sophomore Drew Hare leads the offense at quarterback and with a 15/1 touchdown to interception ratio as he has been efficient while avoiding big mistakes. Hare is not as central to the offense as Lynch was, though still rushing for nearly 800 yards this season to lead the team on the ground. Northern Illinois was actually out-rushed in three MAC games this season and despite a few early fumbles last week, the Huskies turned the ball over rarely this season, featuring one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation.

Northern Illinois is riding a six-game win streak, but there have been some narrow escapes with none of the wins coming by more than 14 points. Last week’s win at Western Michigan featured six turnovers to help the Huskies back into the title game and this will technically be a third straight away game for the Huskies. The Huskies only out-scored foes by six points per game this season in a 10-2 campaign and they were not often the most impressive team in a loaded MAC West division with four teams that each would be favored over Bowling Green in this game, counting Western Michigan, Toledo, and Central Michigan in addition to the Huskies. It is worth noting that the underdog has actually covered in each of the last four MAC championship games.

Last season’s win was the first since 2003 for Bowling Green in this series though they have covered in four of seven meetings since 1998. Bowling Green has been on a great run in the underdog role going 52-39-2 ATS since 1998 when getting points. The Falcons covered in two of three games this season as an underdog and four of the last five instances going back to last season. Northern Illinois is just 3-11-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2005 and the Huskies have failed to cover in five of six games as a favorite since October, despite a 29-21-3 ATS run as a favorite since 2010. The Huskies are 20-12 ATS since 1999 as a favorite of fewer than seven points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Championship Preview
By ASA

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Date: Saturday, Dec. 6
Time/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Wisconsin -4, Total 53

The Big Ten Championship game takes place at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday with Ohio State representing the East and Wisconsin representing the West.

The dynamic of this matchup completely changed with the injury to Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett. With Barrett under center, OSU would have likely been a 3-5 point favorite in this game.

Instead, Wisconsin heads into the weekend as a four-point favorite. The dynamic of the matchup may have changed, but the stakes are still just as high for the Buckeyes, who could potentially move into the CFB Playoff top four with a win over the Badgers.

OSU’s Barrett, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, broke his ankle in last week’s win over Michigan. Only a handful of quarterbacks were having better campaigns than Barrett, who tallied 2,834 passing yards and 34 pass TD’s & 938 rush yards and 11 TD’s this season.

He’ll give way to third-string QB Cardale Jones, who has shown flashes of brilliance in limited playing time. Jones – a 6’5” 230 LB sophomore – has completed 11-of-19 passes for 121 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT in two years at OSU. He’s a proven running threat as well as he has tallied 334 rush yards on 43 attempts with 1 TD in his two-year career.

Still, most of those stats came in mop-up duty in OSU blowout wins, and it’ll be a completely different atmosphere in Indianapolis on Saturday. He’ll also be taking on a Wisconsin defense that ranks 2nd nationally in total YPG allowed, 2nd in pass YPG allowed, 8th in rush YPG allowed, and 4th in PPG allowed.

No opponent has topped 28 points against the Badgers this season (LSU & Illinois each scored 28 points) while six have been held to fewer than 20 points. The Bucks have scored fewer than 31 points just once this season and that was the 21-35 loss to Virginia Tech on September 6th.

Wisconsin has held opposing rushing attacks to just 103.8 YPG on 3.0 YPC with just three individuals exceeding 100 rush yards. The pass defense has been even better, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 46.4% completions with 10 TD and 6 INT.

They do a great job of getting after the quarterback (35 sacks) and stalling drives (13.3 first downs per game allowed – 1st in the B1G).

OSU’s defense has been tested already with some of the running backs & offensive lines that it has faced throughout B1G play. Michigan State’s Jeremy Langford, Minnesota’s David Cobb, and Indiana’s Tevin Coleman – three of the top RB’s in the nation – all had success against this Ohio State defense. Those three combined for 510 rush yards (170 rush YPG) on 7.1 YPC with 9 touchdowns.

The silver lining in that stat is that despite the success those three had on the ground, OSU won all three of those games by 11.3 PPG. Those previous struggles could be a significant issue with Melvin Gordon on deck this weekend. No opponent, aside from FCS Western Illinois, has had success slowing Gordon. He leads the nation with 2,260 rush yards on nearly 8.0 yards per carry with 29 total touchdowns. He seems to have gotten stronger as the season has progressed as he has tallied at least 200 rushing yards in three of the last four games.

Neither team has a huge situational edge here as Wisconsin has been to Indy twice (’11 & ’12) while Ohio State was here last year. Wisconsin is 2-0 SU, beating Michigan State in 2011 and Nebraska in 2012 while Ohio State lost the B1G Championship to Michigan State last year, 24-34.

OSU has won seven of the last 10 against Wisconsin, but is just 5-4-1 ATS in those games with just +3.4 the average margin (six of 10 games decided by seven points or fewer).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: 'Bama causing teaser liability for books vs. Mizzou
By COLIN KELLY

We’re down to the final weekend of college football’s regular season, with huge ramifications, as the four teams that will compete in the first-ever playoff will be decided. There are ostensibly six teams really in the mix – all with one loss except for unbeaten Florida State.

But if a couple of those six slip up on championship weekend, well, it could get pretty crazy – particularly if Missouri can unseat top-ranked Alabama. While other Southeastern Conference heavy hitters fell down around them, the Tigers (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS down the stretch to reach Saturday’s SEC title game. Mizzou capped the regular season with a 21-14 victory over visiting Arkansas as a 2-point home underdog.

For the second year in a row, the Crimson Tide got all they could handle from archrival Auburn, but a huge second half saved ‘Bama’s season in a 55-44 shootout as a 9.5-point favorite. The Tide (11-1 SU, 4-8 ATS) have won seven in a row SU since falling at Mississippi.

John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu, isn’t sold on Missouri for the neutral-site game, at Atlanta’s Georgia Dome.

“Mizzou kind of back-doored its way into this game,” Lester said. “The public won’t think the Tigers stand a chance against ‘Bama, so we’ll probably be moving this spread early and often. And we will have a ton of teaser liability on the Tide.”

Florida State Seminoles (-3) vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost in more than two years – a stretch of 28 games – but the Seminoles have hardly looked pretty this year, especially at the betting window, and their regular-season finale highlighted that fact. The ‘Noles (12-0 SU, 3-9 ATS) struggled to hold off a mediocre Florida squad 24-19 laying 7 points at home.

Georgia Tech (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) heads into the ACC championship game – at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. -- on a five-game SU and ATS surge, capped by a 30-24 overtime win as a hefty 10.5-point pup at Georgia.

“Paul Johnson is a coach that will take advantage if the Seminoles show up with another sloppy performance,” Lester said. “We keep waiting for Florida State to put a complete game together, but good teams find ways to win ugly. Still, we’re expecting a lot of sharp action on the underdog here.”

Oregon Ducks (-13.5) vs. Arizona Wildcats

Oregon’s chase for a championship looked to be derailed when it lost to Arizona 31-24 as a massive three-touchdown home chalk on Oct. 2. But now the Ducks (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) get a shot at revenge in the Pac-12 title game Friday night at Levi’s Stadium, the new home of the NFL’s 49ers. Oregon finished the regular season with a 47-19 road drubbing of Oregon State as a 21-point fave.

Arizona (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) bested Arizona State 42-35 giving 2 points at home, and got help when UCLA lost to Stanford, putting the Wildcats in the conference title tilt.

“The Ducks get a chance to avenge the Arizona upset from earlier this season, and secure a spot in the playoff,” said Lester, noting Oregon is a healthier unit this time around. “Even though it could be without its center here, the Oregon line is much healthier than it was in the first meeting. Marcus Mariota was not 100 percent then either. I don’t think the Wildcats can win, but they could keep it close.”

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers (-4)

Ohio State is now down to its third-string quarterback after J.T. Barrett – who rallied the team after it lost Braxton Miller in the preseason – broke his ankle Saturday against Michigan. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) still notched a 42-28 home victory, but fell short as 21.5-point favorites and will have to start sophomore Cardale Jones in the Big 10 title game at Indianapolis.

Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won seven in a row SU (4-3 ATS), ending the regular season with a 34-24 victory over Minnesota giving 17 points at home.

“Ohio State is forced to play with a third-stringer under center this postseason. We don’t know a lot about him, but he’s a big-bodied quarterback with some concerns over accuracy,” Lester said. “Wisconsin should try to make the Buckeyes one-dimensional. This is a resilient Badgers team, and because of the Buckeyes’ change at QB, I think Wisconsin gets it done.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. With conference championship week upon us, Doc’s Sports continues to look at the little programs that could help you make big cash.

Team to watch: Boise State Broncos (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS)

This week: -20 vs. Fresno State

Saturday’s Mountain West Championship is a rematch of an Oct. 17 game, also played on the blue turf of Boise State and won by the Broncos 37-27.

“The teams are both different from where we were,” Boise State head coach Bryan Harsin said in his press conference earlier this week. “[From] five or six weeks ago, we’re a different football team. Guys are just executing and playing at a better level.”

The Bulldogs are 5-0 since beating Fresno State and have scored at least 50 points in four of those five. They had previously scored more than 38 points only once. Jay Ajayi’s role has always been big, but it has consistently expanded as the season has progressed. The junior running back has rushed at least 26 times in six of the last seven games and he has seven straight 100-yard, multi-touchdown performances.

The favored team is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings. Boise State is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 against the Bulldogs and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of those contests at home.

Team to beware: Marshall Thundering Herd (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS)

This week: -12.5 vs. Louisiana Tech

Marshall made its first Conference-USA Championship appearance last year and got blown out 41-24 at Rice. The Thundering Herd have home-field advantage this time around, but there is still reason to be cautious.

Doc Holliday’s squad is coming off its first loss of the season, in which it gave up 738 yards of total offense to Western Kentucky and fell 67-66 in overtime. Marshall will have to bounce back mentally after seeing any chance of a New Year’s Day bowl go up in flames.

Louisiana Tech is in its first C-USA title game (this is just its second season in the conference), but head coach Skip Holtz has been there before. He is the first coach to lead two different teams to the C-USA Championship (won it in 2008 and 2009 with East Carolina).

The Bulldogs lead the FBS with 36 takeaways and 150 points off turnovers. Marshall coughed it up four times against Western Kentucky.

Total team: Bowling Green Falcons (7-5 SU, 5-7 O/U)

This week: over/under 59 vs. Northern Illinois

Friday will mark the second straight MAC Championship between Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. The Falcons scored 47 points in a 20-point victory to win the 2013 title, but their offense has been sputtering—at least by its lofty standards—of late. BGSU scored 31 points or more in three straight games from Sept. 27 through Oct. 11 but has not put up that many in any of its last five outings.

Quarterback Matt Johnson played in just one game before being lost for the season due to injury. James Knapke has a modest 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions as Johnson’s replacement. Knapke has thrown only two touchdowns in his last five games and does not have a multi-score performance since Oct. 11.

The under is 6-1 in Bowling Green’s last seven overall. It is 5-0 in Northern Illinois’ last five overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Wisconsin vs Ohio State December 06, 08:15 EST

Wisconsin (10-2 SU, 7-1 Cnf) square off against Ohio State (11-1 SU, 8-0 Cnf) at Lucas Oil Stadium in this years conference title game. Wisconsin won't make the playoff, but can squash Buckeyes' national-title hopes. Ohio State will be without QB J.T. Barrett and that has oddsmakers giving Buckeyes +4 points of offense. Even with sophomore Cardale Jones taking snaps, wouldn't be quick writing off Buckeyes. Conference games are tough, spotting points within the conference is dangerous. Keep in mind, Urban Meyer's troops are 24-1 against Big Ten opponents under his guidance. Buckeyes have grabbed the cash in 11-of-13 as an underdog and have own the past seven meetings vs Badgers posting a 6-1 SU/ATS record.