Friday's Top Action
Illinois Fighting Illini (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-5)
Heart of Dallas Bowl
Cotton Bowl Stadium - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Louisiana Tech -6, Total: 58
After winning two straight games to reach six victories, Illinois tries to extend the win surge at the Heart of Dallas Bowl against Louisiana Tech on Friday.
The Illini really struggled in the first 10 games of the year, as they went 3-7 ATS and managed just four SU wins. They put things together at the right time though, with victories as the underdog against both Penn State and Northwestern, and winning by an average of 8.0 PPG. Part of their success was being able to secure the football, as they did not turn over the pigskin in any of the final three contests. They last made a bowl in back-to-back seasons (2010 and 2011) while winning each time (SU and ATS) by an average of 15.0 PPG.
The Bulldogs did well enough to earn a spot opposite Marshall in the C-USA championship game after being 7-1 SU in conference action, and finished a strong 10-3 ATS overall. They nearly earned an upset win against the Thundering Herd on Dec. 6 as 8.5-point underdogs in a 26-23 loss while forcing four turnovers, but could not get past the double-digit win program. Much of Louisiana Tech's solid play stemmed from its ability to create turnovers, as it racked up the most takeaways in FBS with 40.
The Bulldogs' last postseason appearance came in 2011 at the Poinsettia Bowl as 9.5-point underdogs against TCU when they wound up on the wrong side of a tight contest, losing 31-24. These teams did meet recently in 2012 and played an ugly 52-24 game with Louisiana Tech coming away the victor as the 3-point road underdog. There were nine total turnovers between the two clubs, as Illinois fumbled five times while adding an interception.
Some trends to keep an eye on for Friday include that the Fighting Illini are 7-5 ATS (58%) after a game where they committed one or less turnovers in the past three seasons, while being a poor 21-42 ATS (33%) after a game where they forced 3+ turnovers since 1992. There are no significant injuries to either school in this one that could affect the outcome of the game.
Illinois had a solid passing attack this season (243.2 YPG), but failed to do much of anything with its ground game (117.1 YPG, 15th-worst in FBS) and scored a mere 26.6 PPG. QB Reilly O’Toole (1,049 pass yards, 9 TD, 7 INT) started for this team in each of the final two wins while averaging 152 YPG with 4 TD and 1 INT. He also made a big difference with his ability to run the ball as he had 147 rushing yards on 21 attempts (7.0 YPC) in the Nov. 29 win over Northwestern on the road.
HB Josh Ferguson (685 rush yards, 8 TD) has averaged 4.9 YPC on the year, and he is coming off a solid performance (95 rush yards, 2 TD) against Northwestern to cap off the 2014 regular season. He was a big part of the receiving game as well with 44 catches for 373 yards (8.5 avg) and 2 TD. The toughest matchup on this offensive unit is WR Mike Dudek (965 rec yards, 6 TD) who had three scores in the final three games and managed two games over 100 yards on the year.
LB Mason Monheim (108 tackles, 2 INT, 1 sack, 1 TD) and DB Zane Petty (104 tackles) have done their best to solidify this defense, but it has just not worked, as the unit is surrendering 33.9 PPG (19th-worst in nation) and 464.3 YPG of offense (14th-worst in FBS).
Louisiana Tech’s offense looked solid for a majority of the season, finishing with 37.5 PPG (13th in FBS) behind 242.6 passing YPG and 151.1 rushing YPG. QB Cody Sokol (3,189 pass yards, 29 TD, 13 INT) has been great in his senior year with three games over 300 passing yards in the final six games while performing poorly in the C-USA championship game against Marshall. In that contest he was a mere 7-for-20 (35%) for only 72 yards and tossed an interception.
HB Kenneth Dixon (1,236 rush yards, 21 TD) averaged 133 YPG over the past three games while getting into the end zone 10 times in the final four contests. Dixon was able to get some big plays in the passing game as well this season, totaling 306 yards on 26 catches (11.8 avg) and five touchdowns.
WR Trent Taylor (814 rec yards, 9 TD) was the clear No. 1 receiver in this offense and scored seven of his nine touchdowns over the final five games. He also had two performances with 110+ receiving yards.
The defense for the Bulldogs did well this season in giving up 25.2 PPG to their opponents, as they were tremendous against the run (117.9 YPG, 15th in FBS). DBs Xavier Woods (62 tackles, 5 INT, 1 TD) and Adairius Barnes (44 tackles, 5 INT, 4 TFL) were able to create plenty of turnovers, and will once again be spotlighted as they look to make some big plays.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-5) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (6-6)
Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field - Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Friday, 4:30 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -3, Total: 67
North Carolina tries to finish its season with a winning record when it collides with Rutgers on Friday in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.
These two teams have built up nice momentum with Rutgers erasing a 25-point deficit to win at Maryland in its regular-season finale, and North Carolina finishing 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the second half of the season. The Scarlet Knights don't have a 500-yard rusher on their roster, but junior WR Leonte Carroo has given opponents fits all year with 10 TD grabs and a hefty 19.7 yards per catch. The Tar Heels got a strong season out of dual-threat QB Marquise Williams, but he threw only 3 TD passes in his final four games.
Both defenses have struggled, especially on the road where Rutgers allows 40.5 PPG and 496 total YPG, while UNC surrenders 44.0 PPG on 525 total YPG. While the Knights are 31-15 ATS in away non-conference games since 1992, the Tar Heels are 16-6 ATS in this same timeframe in non-home games off a conference home loss.
While Rutgers will be without DB Kiy Hester (personal) and top RB Desmon Peoples (undisclosed) is doubtful, North Carolina may not have questionable DB Ryan Mangum (undisclosed), but RB Elijah Hood (undisclosed) has been upgraded to probable for Friday.
Rutgers scores only 25.6 PPG on 379 total YPG this season, but has been better in non-home games (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) with 26.2 PPG on 391.5 total YPG. Defensively is where the school really struggles though, allowing 30.9 PPG on 440 total YPG (6.5 yards per play). The Knights gain 148 rushing YPG (4.0 YPC) and 231 passing YPG (8.2 YPA), but they allow 213 rushing YPG (5.6 YPC) and 228 passing YPG (7.7 YPA).
Senior QB Gary Nova (2,667 pass yards, 8.7 YPA, 20 TD, 12 INT) is coming off a monster game at Maryland on Nov. 29 when he threw for 347 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That was quite a turnaround from the 3 TD and 5 INT that he amassed in his previous five games combined.
His main target is WR Leonte Carroo (53 rec, 1,043 yards, 10 TD), who has six 100-yard receiving efforts and three multi-touchdown performances this season. He caught six passes for 104 yards and two scores in the last game at Maryland. Sophomore WR Janarion Grant (25 rec, 312 yards, 0 TD) also had a big day against the Terrapins with eight receptions for 105 yards.
With top RB Desmon Peoples (447 rush yards, 3.9 YPC, 3 TD) unlikely to play, the bulk of the rushing workload will reside with freshman RB Robert Martin (334 rush yards, 4.9 YPC, 5 TD) who has rushed for 208 yards (5.2 YPC) and 4 TD in his past three games. The Knights need to be more careful with the football on Friday, as they have at least one turnover in 11 of 12 games this season, including five giveaways in the past two contests. The defense has only three multi-takeaway efforts in the past 10 games.
North Carolina's offense has scored a hefty 34.3 PPG (33rd in nation), thanks in large part to an air attack gaining 279.3 YPG (24th in FBS) and much smaller part to the ground game with 146.2 rushing YPG on 3.8 YPC. The defense has really hurt this program though, as it allows 38.9 PPG overall (119th in nation) on 496 total YPG (6.4 yards per play). The Heels have been hurt in both facets, as they surrender 232 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 263 passing YPG (8.5 YPA).
Junior QB Marquise Williams (2,870 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 20 TD, 9 INT) is coming off his worst game of the season in the 35-7 defeat versus NC State (11-of-22, 97 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT), but has thrown for more than 275 yards in five of his past nine games, while tossing multiple TD passes seven times during the 2014 season. Williams is also the team's leading rusher with 737 yards (4.1 YPC) and 12 TD on the ground.
The team will try to get RB T.J. Logan (472 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 3 TD) back on track after he gained a mere 11 yards on six touches in the last game, which was a far cry from his 271 total yards and 2 TD in his previous two contests. UNC has a host of talented receivers with four players surpassing 400 yards through the air. Sophomore WRs Ryan Switzer (55 rec, 703 yards, 4 TD) and Mack Hollins (34 rec, 611 yards, 18.0 avg, 8 TD) are the top targets for Williams, but the duo combined for just 36 yards on six catches in the Nov. 29 loss. North Carolina has committed multiple turnovers in 6-of-12 games this year, but has also forced multiple turnovers five times during the 2014 season.
North Carolina State Wolfpack (7-5) vs. Central Florida Knights (9-3)
St. Petersburg Bowl
Tropicana Field - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: UCF -2, Total: 49
Two schools looking to extend their win streaks meet in Friday's St. Petersburg Bowl when NC State faces American Athletic Conference co-champion Central Florida.
Both schools closed out the regular season on a high with wins as 6.5-point underdogs. NC State won three of its final four games (SU and ATS) by playing turnover-free football in all three victories. The school has also won two of its past three bowl games.
UCF finished with four straight wins (SU and ATS), capped off by a pair of road victories at South Florida and East Carolina thanks to a final-play Hail Mary. This school is riding a three-game bowl win streak, including a 52-42 upset of 17-point favorite Baylor in the Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl.
Wolfpack QB Jacoby Brissett threw 22 TD and only 5 INT this season, and also rushed for 498 yards, but it's not easy piling up yards versus a Knights team allowing a mere 17.9 PPG this season, good for ninth-best in the nation. Both teams won three road games this season, and both won big at South Florida, with NC State prevailing 49-17, and UCF winning 16-0.
The Wolfpack are 22-10 ATS in non-home games after a bye week since 1992, while the Knights are 10-0 ATS in the past two seasons after playing their previous game on the road.
The only significant injury for either team is Central Florida G Joey Grant, who is listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury.
NC State has a very balanced offense with 206 rushing YPG (37th in nation) on 5.4 YPC and 196 passing YPG, leading to 29.8 PPG. The offense has also done well in its five road games (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS) by chewing up the clock for 32:54 in time of possession and outgaining these hosts by 56 yards per game.
QB Jacoby Brissett (2,344 pass yards, 6.8 YPA, 22 TD, 5 INT) has not only thrown the ball exceptionally well, but has chewed up 498 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and three scores for the season. This includes his 167 yards on just 14 carries (11.9 YPC) in the upset at North Carolina on Nov. 29.
The team's main ball carrier is junior Shadrach Thornton (811 rush yards, 5.5 YPC, 9 TD) who closed out the regular season with back-to-back games of 110+ rushing yards and one touchdown. When Brissett does drop back to pass, he'll first look for WR Bo Hines (42 rec, 537 yards, 1 TD), who is the only wideout on NC State with at least 350 receiving yards. Sophomore TE David Grinnage (25 rec, 331 yards, 5 TD) is the main red-zone threat with his 6-foot-5, 269-pound frame.
On defense, the Wolfpack allow a pedestrian 27.0 PPG (68th in nation), while giving up only 197 passing YPG and 176 rushing YPG. Although they were unable to stop Georgia Tech's triple option that hung 479 rushing yards on NC State on Nov. 8, since that date, the Wolfpack have held their two opponents to 88 rushing yards on 63 carries (1.4 YPC). They have also done a great job of forcing turnovers with eight takeaways in the past four games.
Central Florida's offense scores only 28.2 PPG (including 21.3 PPG away from home) and gains 362.8 total YPG. This is split into a breakdown of 132 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) and 231 passing YPG. It has been the defense that has carried this club, allowing only 17.9 PPG on 282.8 total YPG (4.3 yards per play).
Sophomore QB Justin Holman (2,661 pass yards, 7.9 YPA, 20 TD, 13 INT) has stepped in admirably this year for the departed Blake Bortles, throwing at least one touchdown pass in all 12 games this season. Holman has been helped greatly by the presence of RB William Stanback (659 rush yards, 3.7 YPC, 10 TD), who after a two-game absence, made his triumphant return on Dec. 4 in East Carolina with 101 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) to help the Knights pull off the stunning victory as 6.5-point underdogs.
Central Florida also has another star in junior WR Breshad Perriman (906 rec yards, 9 TD), who is a beast to bring down with his 6-foot-3 frame and averages 22.1 yards per reception. Perriman was on the receiving end of Holman's 51-yard TD pass on the final play of the Dec. 4 win at ECU. That 32-30 win gave the Knights a share of the conference title with Memphis. Turnovers have been a problem for the Knights this year, as they have at least one giveaway in nine straight games, totaling 23 miscues in this stretch. But the UCF defense has been the equalizer with eight games of at least two takeaways.
