Where the action is: Early money moving big-name bowl game odds
By JASON LOGAN
Odds for the big-name college football bowl games have only been open for short time and already early action has dictated a few notable moves.
We talk with Peter Childs, about that first rush of money, where it landed and how the books are adjusting.
Cotton Bowl: Baylor Bears at Michigan State Spartans – Open: +1, Move: +2.5
Oddsmakers opened with Baylor, fresh off a College Football Playoff shunning, as a 1-point favorite versus Michigan State and immediately took money on the favorite, bumping this spread as high as BU -2.5. But according to Childs, he first considered opening the Cotton Bowl as a pick’em.
On one side, you can say the Bears will come out to prove they belong among the Final Four vying for the national title. And on the other, you can say that Baylor will come out flat after the disappointment of not making the playoff cut.
“I hate this spot for Baylor,” says Childs. “They were all in to get into the playoffs and it’s all they’ve talked about. Hell, they campaigned for it and hired media companies to market for it.”
“They have to be disappointed being here and that lack of motivation is a factor, in my opinion,” he adds. “I don’t understand all the support for Baylor in the past few hours, but we had to move it with the amount of action we’ve seen.”
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -9, Move: -10
The No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff opened just under a double-digit favorite versus No. 4 Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl – the semifinals for the national title game. Money hit the Tide and pushed the number to -10. However, that adjustment prompted action on the Buckeyes, following their one-sided stunner against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. Alabama -10 (-105) / Ohio State +10 (-115).
“So far, good two-way action at the number 10,” says Childs. “Solid number and I don’t see this one moving all that much. We’ve seen quite a bit of Ohio State moneyline bets, to the point where we lowered them down from +280 to +270.”
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Mississippi Rebels at TCU Horned Frogs – Open: -3, Move: -3.5
Texas Christian is another Big 12 team with a chip on its shoulder heading into bowl season. The Horned Frogs were bumped from the Final Four by Ohio State, despite ranking No. 3 entering Week 15 and thumping Iowa State 55-3. They did everything they could do and weren’t even given a New Year’s Day time slot, instead settling for a New Year’s Eve game with Ole Miss.
A flood of action forced bookmakers to move off the key number. They first adjusted the juice on TCU, going -3 (-115) trying to entice money on the discounted Rebels. But it wasn’t enough and they made the move to -3.5.
“Moving off the number -3 takes a lot of money, basically all the early money was on TCU but at 3.5, we’re starting to see a bit of Mississippi money come in,” says Childs.
Much like its Big 12 brethren, Baylor, Texas Christian could be motivated to show up the selection committee or be completely disinterested in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl after having its national championship hopes dashed.
“I see this like I do the Baylor game, I question TCU’s motivation here,” adds Childs. “They wanted to be in the playoffs, not this bowl game. Mississippi will also have strong crowd support with this game being in the South, in Georgia (Georgia Dome).”
