Courtesy of Kevin Cox
Gulfstream Park
Race 1 #6 TOTAL TALENT posesses killer speed, the outside slot in an abbreviaed field, and drops down the elevetaor shaft for Ramsey, who never met a horse he didn't like to get rid of for a quick win. Davis 2 for 2 with this filly. #3 IT'S MY BUSINESS appears best of rest as she drops in for a tag off of 2 starter races. 2 layoff lines not really much of a concern, as Zerpa 33% with this type of L/O ( 18% normally ). #5 LA HIJA DE OLGA is timid choice to round out the tri, as jockey/trainer combo 50% ( 2-4 ) together ( 14% apart ), and Garcia 27% with this type layoff angle.
Race 2 Davis/Ward early double ? Why not ? Ward is part owner of #6 JOJO'S GAL, and he's dropping her to the $12,500 level. ( Was a $65,000 sales purchase in 2012. ) She's been showing good speed facing tougher, and I always pay extra special attention to owned/trained horses that take a drop, rather than a step up, in class. #3 BENNE FIRST BABY was good with the hood in latest after a couple of clunkers. Gets a positive rider switch to Saez, and should be coming late presuming the blinkers prevent future stinkers. I don't particulary relish endorsing horses that ran up the track for a 32% trainer, and were claimed. In the case of #8 FELICIDADES, however, trainer Green is 4-14 ( 29 % ) off the claim ( just 10% normally ), and filly has enough decent back Beyers to merit inclusion from the remaining billy goats in this weak field.
Race 3 #2 DREAM MAESTRO returns off a 7+ month layoff today. Thrice in his history, he has come back off layoffs in the 3-8 month range. In those races he averaged an 81.7 Beyer, to go along with a win and 2 thirds. 68 % ITM locally, and 83% ITM at the DX make the 8-1 M.L. odds seem pretty generous. Paco on top of his back can't hurt either. #7 BELIEF SYSTEM makes first start since claim by Maragh out of slightly tougher event in which he finished 3rd. Gets weight break with improving bug signed on, and is tactically drawn from the outside. #4 TARPY'S GOAL makes 3rd start in nearly 2 years, but Romans ( a bit snakebit @ this meeting ) can be count on for having them sound. Stakes winner drops in for lowest level yet. BEATABLE FAVORITE : #3 HOLDIN BULLETS does have decent early foot, but I feel that speed may possibly be countered by the #7 here. Although he did finish 2nd against similar in latest, the Beyer came back a little weak, and I'm willing to take a stand against today. ( Only a beatable favorite play if the #7 runs. )
Race 4 Terrible betting race, so it looks like a fine time to re-watch that episode of "Horseplayers" you DVR'd the other night ! #4 HOT COFFEE ran a clear second in last going 2 turns against cheaper. I happen to feel she's more of a one turn animal, however, and wouldn't be shocked to see a move forward today. Connections are Nordic cold, so demand value. #1 ARABIAN DREAM is 7 for 8 ITM with a bug on her back, so she must be included with the 10 pound apprentice signed on and a rail draw. 4-6 ITM @ G.P. #6 STEFFI was claimed for 30K right around the time we were turkey shopping. 2 months later and Ramsey does his usual drop-looking to pop-move. Try and get a look at her warming up beforehand, as nothing's a given in this game, and if she was 100% they would've wheeled her right back.
Race 5 Plesa saw fit to claim the #4 MEUSER 2 starts back for 75 big ones, and roan colt didn't disgrace himself when facing winners for the first time next out when losing by 3 in a wild finish. Paco on/Bravo off, for my money is a positive rider switch, and gets a little post relief as well. #3 BRANDED HAND beat the top choice by a mere 1/2 length in last, and this one is 3-1 M.L., compared to 6-1 for Meuser, so therein lies the rub for reversing these 2 today. I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for #2 DADDY'S KID, as he was my first professional winner with Saratoga Bets. That being said, he was claimed off that win, and moves in from the 10 hole to the 2 slot today, and is eligible to crash the exotics here, should a nice pace develop up front. Off Turf : 8-1-4
Race 6 #2 READY SIGNAL was marooned from the 11 hole in last, when overmatched in the $100,000 South Shore Stakes. Prado did the right thing and didn't persevere when he knew the mare was beaten, and she gets class and rail relief today. May sit a nice trip here. #1 COARSEGOLD likes the course and finds herself in an appreciable softer spot than the stakes foes she's been locking horns with in 6 of last 7. Hennig/Bravo click at a 33% rate together, more than double their regular numbers. #5 CECI AND RED wheels back off a brief 6 day respite for Farro, who's an obscene 36% in that area. Whip flew outta Rocco's hand in last, so can be given a small excuse. Start 2 back was sharp. Off Turf : 3-5-4
Race 7 #1 FLORIDA SUN put forth a real nice debut when beating home 9 of 12 on 1/15. That was for a $50,000 tag, and now Morales puts her where he can't lose her. He also switches her to the dirt, for which she's probably better bred. Trainer 3 for 10 with 2nd time starters. ( Just 10% overall. ) #7 DARING KATHY boasts the highest Tomlinson # in the field @ the DX. ( 397 ) and needn't be much to make an impact here. #2 HARMONY PLACE shows a bullet 5F breeze over the track, from the gate, and is also sporting a nice Tommy # ( 396 ). Nice longshot play if top choice falters. BEATABLE FAVORITE : #8 SOUPER SCOOP is a bad actor at the start, hasn't been seen in half a year, and is a bit of a money burner, so I'm not entirely sold on his being the 3-1 M.L. fave in this spot.
Race 8 Maiden Claimers on the lawn mixing it up here. #4 PARED displayed a nice "Z" pattern in latest, when dropping back a bit, then re-rallying. Has also displayed some early foot in past, so it'll be interesting to see what new connections instruct Jaen in the paddock. Draw a line through the latest of #5 LARCENY IN MY HEART--he was rushed up into contention from the 10 hole, then steadied on the far turn. Closed like a freight train 2 back against tougher, and am willing to give him a shot @12-1. #8 KENAI WARRIOR has run 3 straight solid races on the green stuff, and it's not a matter of "if", but "when" with this fella. Must be included in the exotics hopper.
Race 9 I have to be honest with you, I'm taking a bit of a flyer here with the #8 BELVIN. This 4YO colt by Empire Maker took really well to the Poly out in California last year, and I think that may translate nicely to the grass, as poly #'s lean more towards grass than dirt. I realize there's been a couple of layoff lines in his P.P.'s, but he's never been 12-1 in his life, and Saez sees fit to ride, so I feel he's worth a shot. #3 LOCHTE has done very little wrong in his turf career and keeps getting better and better. He's interchangeable with my 3rd selection, #2 ONE GOLDEN ROAD who is a perfect 2-2 over the course and beat 50K starter foes in impressive fashion 3 weeks ago when closing into a slow pace. Off Turf : 1-5-7
Race 10 Trombetta, 15% overall, is 23% first off the claim, and he seems to have made a good one here in #1 BIG JOHN B. This game gelding has been claimed in 2 of his last 3 starts, and has hit the board in 14 of his 17 turf starts. Always tries his best, and is entered where he can't be snagged. Bravo won on his lone start with him at The Shore this summer. 5-1 very generous. #2 POLITICAL COURAGE gets huge post relief, and digs the course ( 3-7 ) ; figures to be coming late with projected speed duel. I'm surprised Ramsey hasn't dropped #8 LIVE IN JOY in for a tag yet---after all it's been 2 whole starts since the $62,500 claim. Jokes aside, I like the fact that they're hanging in there with this guy, as he was a reclaim after they lost him for a quarter 5 starts prior. Perhaps they feel they can earn that money back without the ol' drop and pop. BEATABLE FAVORITE : #3 MR. ONLINE will NOT get away with pedestrian fractions as long as #7 Concert stage is in the race. That figure in latest is bloated because he stole the race, and feel he will be overbet as a result of it.. ( Only a beatable favorite play if both run. ) Off Turf : 9-7-4
