Free NHL Pick for Monday Night.

[AAASports]

Hello. I am new to this forum. I'll try to give out a Bonus Play winner every day. In this case, I believe the Avs are worth the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.


This is a 1* Bonus Play on the Colorado Avalanche on the puck-line at Detroit on Monday night (7:30 EST).

These teams played on March 5th, and Detroit held on for the 2-1 victory. I believe tonight's game sets up as another hard-hitting, scrappy, competitive affair. Colorado is 12-18-4 overall, and just 2-13-3 on the road. The Avs though will look to build off their 1-0 home win over Nashville on Saturday, and take advantage of a discombobulated Wings side which has lost two straight, including a disturbing 7-1 setback to the Blackhawks yesterday (note that Detroit is interestingly just 8-9 this season vs. teams with a losing record). Detroit is 17-13-5 overall, and 9-6-3 at home. This is a brutal spot for the Wings, who are struggling right now in every facet of the game, getting outscored 9-1 over their current slide. Colorado's Semyon Varlamov stopped 34 shots last time out for his third shutout of the year, and there's no reason not to believe that he won't be at the top of his game tonight as well. ''Varly has been unbelievable,'' Avalanche center Matt Duchene echoed yesterday. ''He's been so consistent for us.'' It's a tough two game set for the Avs, who are in Nashville for the re-match tomorrow night. And because of that, I'm expecting Colorado to make the most of the situation it finds itself in coming into this one, and have no issues laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.

AAA

 

[sherwood]

The absolute worst bet in all of sports is an NHL team +1½ goals. It`s like betting a horse to show. The main reason is because if you`re team is down one goal, they are going to pull the goalie and then you`re in prayer mode for the next 90 seconds, laying a huge price. If they`re leading or tied, you could`ve taken back 3-1 (or thereabouts) on your money by playing them on the money line.

 

[Nolockshere]

Wow!A Bonus Play in a free pick forum.

Take it to the tout forum junior.

 

[VegasVic]

The absolute worst bet in all of sports is an NHL team +1½ goals. It`s like betting a horse to show. The main reason is because if you`re team is down one goal, they are going to pull the goalie and then you`re in prayer mode for the next 90 seconds, laying a huge price. If they`re leading or tied, you could`ve taken back 3-1 (or thereabouts) on your money by playing them on the money line.

I'm surprised at this view Sherwood. The math really proves just the opposite. Dogs ATS are running 67.88% this year. You could lay -200 on every game and still be ahead. Colorado can be presently had at -195 making this a modest +EV opportunity. Considering the propensity of Western Conference games going into OT only strengthens the position.

On the other hand Colorado is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a dog.

I don't bet dogs on the puck line usually. However I have parlayed them together, (two teamers only), to produce a better risk/reward result.


Thanks for the write-up triple A. GL

 

[sherwood]

I'm surprised at this view Sherwood. The math really proves just the opposite. Dogs ATS are running 67.88% this year. You could lay -200 on every game and still be ahead. Colorado can be presently had at -195 making this a modest +EV opportunity. Considering the propensity of Western Conference games going into OT only strengthens the position.

On the other hand Colorado is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a dog.

Small sample size Vic. Look at it at +½ instead of +1½. The results are similar, making the +½ bet a more profitable one. Also note that when taking back +1½ goals, you are usually laying -220 or more. Trust me on this, it's a losing proposition over time in a big way.