France - Ligue 1 action for 11/19-11/20

[quantumleap]

Lyon over Paris St. Germain +180 (1 unit)
Lyon/PSG draw +195 (1 unit)
You've got to be kidding me! Lyon is the class of this league and PSG has been struggling. I'll say one thing for PSG and that is they have 3 victories at home but each of those were by 1 goal and 2 of them were by lower-tier teams. Lyon needs at least a tie here to keep Lille from tying them in the tables. Lyon has 5 wins on the road with 2 draws. They have scored 10 goals while only allowing 4 in road matches. Please, let's get serious here!

Lille pk and +0.5 over Lens +119
Lille is 3 points behind Lyon for the league lead. They would like a win here to get closer. Lens has scored only 7 goals in 6 matches at home.

Metz over Istres +175 (1/2 unit)
Metz/Istres draw +190 (1/2 unit)
Istres has scored 1 goal in 6 home matches in the league this year. Metz will be looking to do well after giving Caen their first road victory last week.

 

[X-Files]

Lyon over Paris St. Germain +180 (1 unit)
Lyon/PSG draw +195 (1 unit)
You've got to be kidding me! Lyon is the class of this league and PSG has been struggling. I'll say one thing for PSG and that is they have 3 victories at home but each of those were by 1 goal and 2 of them were by lower-tier teams. Lyon needs at least a tie here to keep Lille from tying them in the tables. Lyon has 5 wins on the road with 2 draws. They have scored 10 goals while only allowing 4 in road matches. Please, let's get serious here!

Lille pk and +0.5 over Lens +119
Lille is 3 points behind Lyon for the league lead. They would like a win here to get closer. Lens has scored only 7 goals in 6 matches at home.

Metz over Istres +175 (1/2 unit)
Metz/Istres draw +190 (1/2 unit)
Istres has scored 1 goal in 6 home matches in the league this year. Metz will be looking to do well after giving Caen their first road victory last week.

quantum:

May i ask how many units are you placing on this match?...

Lille pk and +0.5 over Lens +119

Since this game has been put at -119 instead of +119
perhaps an equal amount on both the side & draw is the
more economical way now. Both are at +195.

 

[quantumleap]

All my picks are for 1 unit unless specified. I usually bet 1/2 unit for the 3-way bets but the Lyon bet is for 1 unit each because I feel more strongly about that one.

As far as the "pk and +0.5 -119" vs. the "side & draw +195", the side & draw seems to be more economical. Good point. I see the "pk and +0.5" is now at -126 so there must be some money coming in on that.

 

[quantumleap]

Friday's result:
Lyon 0, PSG 0 (net +0.95)

Looks like Lyon was happy to get a draw. This will cause Lille to have even more drive to win over Lens to tighten things up for the league lead.

Here is the difference between taking each bet that x-files asked about. I'll still be taking the Lille pk and +0.5 -126 bet.

pk and +0.5 -126 (1 unit):
Lille win +0.80
draw +0.40
Lille loss -1.00

Lille side +195 (1/2 unit) & draw +195 (1/2 unit):
Lille win +0.48
draw +0.48
Lille loss -1.00

 

[ilovefootball]

quantumleap

Great job!!
I have them too.

 

[scripter]

Fully Agree With Lille
Thay Are Very Strong At Home 6 2 0 13-2 And Solid Away 3 0 3 5-5 And If They Win Will Be One Point Behind Lyon
Gl With All Your Picks ;-)

 

[scripter]

Btw Today I Bet On Draw With Exact Score And My Favourite Is 2-2 ))
Obviously Was Too Cold
Glta

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks ilov(e)football. Hope to see more of your picks.

Thanks scripter. Good luck on your picks too.

x-files, I checked my spreadsheet and found it to show the pk and +0.5 to be at -119 so that will be the price of record. Sorry for any confusion.

Let's get 'em tomorrow.

 

[Poopanugget]

Good start to the weekend QL.

Poopanugget:drink:

 

[quantumleap]

Good start to the weekend QL.

Poopanugget:drink:

I'll drink to that!

Lots more action left to be played out.

 

[booze]

unders looking good in ligue 1 today. Seems as though every score is 0-0 so far

 

[quantumleap]

Metz/Istres goes 0-0 too booze.

Saturday's results:
Lille 1, Lens 1 (net +0.40)
Metz 0, Istres 0 (net +0.45)

Series results: +1.80

I needed this series to do well to offset my 1-3 record in the English league.

Overall series results: 12 series wins, 6 series losses, 1 series draw
Overall net results: +18.58

 

[iluvefootball]

quantumleap

Great jobs again!!!


I can't login early, but I have lille too. They beated lyon and why are they underdog? sweet... I have mc and Boro too. Liverpool two top strickers were not playing..

Great jobs...

 

[quantumleap]

Great jobs again!!!


I can't login early, but I have lille too. They beated lyon and why are they underdog? sweet... I have mc and Boro too. Liverpool two top strickers were not playing..

Great jobs...

Thanks ilf. My personal theory is that too much emphasis is put on the home team. I find myself taking this into account as well but sometimes the line reflects this too much. I especially like the away team and draw for a half unit each in a situation like that except when I can get a pk and +0.5.

Where do you get your info on football (soccer)? I go to socceret on espn.com but I find that lacking at times.

 

[iluvefootball]

quantumleap

I have all kinds of sources. If you need inputs on the games you like lets me know if I can help. I will tell you later after my mission accomplished. I am here not for the praise or the glory and neither for attentions. I am here to do two things for friends that asked me to do .. When these two are done I will leave this forum...
1. Beat the bookies and bring the winnings ...
2. Already said....,but it far from accomplished.

I think you are doing just fine with french league and keep'em coming!!!

Good lucks,
ilovefootball