Fort Worth Bowl - Boise State vs TCU

[oldmanTED]

Bounced back nicely yesterday going 3-0 with a win each in the NFL, NCAAF, and NCAAB. Today we move on to the Fort Worth Bowl with Boise State vs TCU.

Respect Boise State's aerial assault and decent ground game but view TCU with better overall balance particularly in running the ball. Futhermore, like defensive speed of the Horned Frogs, although they can be beaten going long once in awhile. TCU has played bowl teams much better than Boise State and will have a large home crowd of supporters. Boise will not be playing on it's beloved blue carpet but rather on grass. Last, there is tremendous line value here. The number seems extremely high to me in a game which I think TCU can win outright. Can you say moneyline? Hence, my first 3* play of the bowl season.

3* TCU +11.5

Overall Unit Record YTD (All Sports): (31-16.6) 65.13% 3*(4-1)(+8.7) 1*(19-12-1)(+5.7)
Overall W/L Record YTD (All Sports): (23-13-1) 63.89%
NCAAF YTD: (4-0)(+8.0) (Bowl Game Record 3-0 Included)
NFL Record YTD: (4-4-1)(-2.7)
NCAAB Record YTD: (11-7)(+5.3)
NBA Record YTD: (4-2)(+3.8)

Plays are rated 1*-5*

Good Luck All

 

[hansenbros.]

good work old man!

gl

 

[Co-Captain]

oldmanTed, I can smell upset. Finally, the first DD dog is going to bark.

 

[SportSavant]

I am waiting for a dog to bite Kansas & Oakland didnt even meow today!!!!!!!

 

[SportSavant]

Old Man,

All I am seeing right now is +11...Do you think the line will get higher?

 

[oldmanTED]

Line is currently +11.5 at the WSEX. It may go higher but the question is will it reach +13 and is it worth the wait when +11.5 covers all the way through +11. In the other direction, I saw it fall earlier to +10 which means it is possible to go below that. I took the number now because I am satisfied that it is plenty of cushion plus as I stated I believe TCU can win outright.

 

[LeeOrtz]

OMT,

I think you have some solid picks, but I think this one is going the other way. We hammered the over in the Kansas game. Can't see you on the side of TCU though. Read my write up and let me know your thoughts.

Good luck bro!

Uncle Leo

 

[oldmanTED]

Leo

Read your thread earlier this morning and provided a brief comment. Good luck to you today. Maybe Boise State wins by 11 and we both win. That would be nice wouldn't it.?

 

[volhound]

thanks old timer
keep on kicking the man's ass

i will be following you throughout the football season

do you feel that you are better at college or nfl? ( bowls or playoffs )

vol

 

[oldmanTED]

volhound

Better, i.e. more comfortable, as follows:

1. NFL Regular Season
2. NFL Playoffs
3. College Bowls
4. College Regular Season

But, there has not been a great deal of difference in my winning percentage for any of the above. You can tell how I feel by the unit level of the play. Normally only have about a half dozen 5 unit plays the entire 6 months of football.

 

[theerodfather]

TED,LETS KICK THE MANS ASSSSSSSSS!!!!!
GOOD LUCK TONIGHT.
THEERODFATHER

 

[SportSavant]

ted, question,

I had TCU tonite + 12...In the second quarter when TCU was up Big I had some opportunities to hedge..

Could have taken...

Boisie +150 ML
Boise +3.5 -120
Boise -6.5 +150....

I hesitated & didnt take any...I thnk the Boise + 50 was awesome as I would have locked in 30% + big chance to hit both sides...

Would you have taken these odds if presented to you...

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant

Simple answer is No! The way this game is developing I wouldn't hedge or try to win both sides. Sit tight. Maybe take a peak at the 2H line and see if there is value to add to your play.

 

[SportSavant]

BOise -6...31...?

 

[oldmanTED]

Opinion only. Over 31. No Play. Choosing to sit tight. Still like what I see. Teams are equal.

 

[SportSavant]

thanks alot for answering, lots of folks around here get all worked up if you ask alot of questions that they think are dumb...Myself I figure if I dont ask i wont learn..

If I had to do it again, only becauz Boise can score alot & they were heavy favs, I would have Bought back at Boise pick + 50...of course hindsight is 20/20...But I could have cashed in 40% with such a big chance of both sides....Would have been a great headge...IMHO

 

[oldmanTED]

Savant

It's important to not let the fact that Boise State was a heavy favorite influence your thinking. If you liked TCU enough to take the +12 and you are sitting at 24-24 at the half, with your team playing well and receiving the opening kick-off, sit tight and believe in your play. We don't know the outcome of course, but hopefully the Frogs will come through for us.

 

[SportSavant]

Agree with you fully Old Man...This case however was very attrctive with BOISE Pick + 150

Is there nor an credenece to the part about locking in 40% of your bet aswell as really good chance to get both sides? This of course could also be re-worded as throwing away 60% of your bet...So the question is, is it worth it to lock in 40% for that 12 point middle chance? By not doing this you could walk away with nothing???

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha oldmanTed, its looking good so far, woof. Got some info and more insight in my thread, may help with your selection in the Hawaii Bowl. Aloha and woof, Co-Captain.

 

[SportSavant]

congrats on the comfortable victory...it was never really in doubt...bout time a dog barks in these bowls...

Appreciate our discussions..

SS