Forget about the nfl spread ... It rarely matters

CHANCE · Sep 30, 2009

In the NFL, just throw out the spread ... It rarely matters.

As a matter of fact, I have tracked this for many, many years and the point spread comes into play an average of just 17% of all NFL games. In other words, the S/U winner covers 83% of all NFL games .... Every year, without fail. Even in the preseaon.

For example: This past preseaon, the S/U winners went 55-5-5 ATS. In other words, if you picked all the S/U winners this past preseason, you cashed an amazing 92% of your tickets.
Sounds impossible, right? Go check it out.

Currently, through Week 3 of the current NFL season, the S/U winner is 41-7 ATS & 30-2 ATS the past two weeks. (11-5 Week 1).

This is not an abnormal ocurrence. Year in and year out 82-83% of ALL S/U NFL winners cover the spread. If you like a dog in the NFL, you should only bet them if you feel they can win the game on the field.

One caveat --- Throw out the DD dogs. Last year (2008 season) the spread winning record for the S/U winners was 202-44-9 ATS (Philly & Cincy played to a tie). However, if you throw out the DD (Double Digit) faves, which went 29-4 S/U, but just 14-24 ATS, your new record is 188-20-9 ATS. An amazing 90% spread winners for the S/U winners.

I am not talking about betting favorites only and I am not talking about the ATS results for the posted faves. I am talking about the teams that win the games on the field ... THE S/U WINNERS, be they dog or faves.

So, once again, if you like a SD (Single Digit) dog, you better feel secure in their chances of winning that game on the field.

I saw so many posts in here on Monday night, with people stating that they thought Dallas could win the game, but 8 points was just too, too many and Carolina would lose the game, but cover the spread. Remember this, it does happen, (17-18% of the time), but in an amazing 82-83% of ALL the NFL games, if the team loses the game, they just don't cover the spread, especially, as we said, if you throw out all games with a line of 10 or more.

By the way, in the NFL this year, only four of the 48 games (final scores) have come within three points of the posted spread:
Week 1: Indy & NYG
Week 2: Indy & Atlanta
Week 3: None
I know it will come into play at times, but to worry about a ½ point here and a ½ point there is obviously a waste of time in the NFL.

You should also consider betting the ML, if you like the single digit dog. Odds are they are only going to cover the spread if they win the game S/U, so get the extra money for the win and save the juice if they lose.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THIS:
IF U CAN PICK S/U WINNERS IN THE NFL, U CAN B RICH !!!
(not as easy as it sounds)

MORE EXAMPLES: This is also amazing, but also true ---
Despite the SF loss this past weekend, which was the only one on the board where the S/U winner did NOT cover ... The S/U winner is 25-2-2 ATS the past 29 San Fran games. The S/U winner is 46-4-1 the last 51 Philly games. The S/U winner is 29-1 the last 30 Baltimore games. The S/U winner is 31-4-1 the last 36 GB games. The S/U winner is 28-3-1 the last 32 Chicago game .... I think you get the idea.

Good luck everyone ... Just find those S/U NFL winners and have a profitable season.

cashducats · Oct 1, 2009

that read like a late night infomercial

"you want women and boats like i have? buy my tapes!"

TomGshotput · Oct 1, 2009

To most of us, 17% is a lot

aiverson · Oct 1, 2009

Ok, you must have gone to the "Ace Ace" school. While a good handicapper, this logic and mentality is not +EV long term. I've disagreed w/ Ace in the past, I will do it anytime he mentions it, and I will disagree with you here. Mainly to help young handicappers realize the pitfalls of this logic.

My thought on "points don't matter":

Winning vs. losing in this sport is a fine line. You pick 50% of the games right, you lose. You pick 55% right, you win. That's only 5% difference between a winner and a loser.

If points matter in 15% of the games, your damn sure I'll be worrying about the points.

If points mattered in only 1-2% of games, maybe I won't worry as much. But 15% is HUGE when the margin between winning vs. losing is only a couple percentage points.

And again, this assumes that you are betting on every single game and therefore would only be affected by the points in 15% of them.

If you have 16 games in week 3, then Ace (who says points matter in 15% and not a big deal) is saying the points matter in 2.4 of those games. But if you only play 3 games a week, and your 3 games happen to be the 2.4 games that week, you are affected by the points in 100% of the games you are playing.

I don't agree w/ this advice at all, and I don't want young gamblers to be disillusioned by thinking all they have to do is pick a side. That's what the books would want you to think. "Hey kid, it's easy, just pick a side." Trust me, it's not easy, and 15% is HUGE.

Whether you play every game on the board or a select few a week, the points matter and you'd be foolish to bet on a game ignoring them. I want to make sure those who haven't been at this very long don't get derailed.

lindabp1 · Oct 1, 2009

To pick S/U winner, you have to pay high juice. Need a much higher winning percentage to be profitable.

ClayBetting · Oct 1, 2009

lindabp1 said:
To pick S/U winner, you have to pay high juice. Need a much higher winning percentage to be profitable.

Not if you are picking underdogs correctly. Then you can have a lower percentage to be profitbale because you are getting + money.

powerz · Oct 1, 2009

lindabp1 said:
To pick S/U winner, you have to pay high juice. Need a much higher winning percentage to be profitable.

he's trying to tell you to lay the points if you think the fav will win

GunShark · Oct 1, 2009

I'll stick with the ATS and it's too early in the season to predict any accurately.

tool21 · Oct 1, 2009

Here's some logic behind this and tell me if this doesn't make sense....the average line since the conception of football is probably -3 which is the AVERAGE home field for all those games.....now if the average line is -3 then a team that wins is going to cover a HUGE majority of the time. How many games really end within 3 points? That's logical that AVERAGES tell us winning teams cover.

but

This is retrospective where you can say, well because this happened then this will happen. But it can't be used to predict future events like a winning team covering a spread. A single entity has barely anything to do with the averages of a life time of football.

JomoSmooth · Oct 1, 2009

thinks for that response A.I.

CHANCE · Oct 1, 2009

It seems that a few of you are missing the point ---

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<HR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82; COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>To pick S/U winner, you have to pay high juice. Need a much higher winning percentage to be profitable.
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Nowhere did I suggest that anyone bet any team to win S/U, unless you are wagering on the dog. Nobody has to pay HIGH juice. If you played GB -7 last week and lost, your juice is still 10%. I didn't suggest betting GB on the ML. The idea is to NOT bet a single digit dog, UNLESS you can make a case for them to win the game S/U.

And, Iverson --- I went to no Ace - Ace school and I am not a young gambler. I have been doing this for 35 years, not that that should matter.

And yes, 17% is suibstantial, BUT 83% is more substantial. I am not saying any of this is easy, merely stating that as much as we want to not believe, because we have been conditioned to look for that elusive value, NFL games are rarely decided by the spread.

As for the infomercial remark --- Infomercials are shown to sell you something --- All I am saying (not selling) is that if you play one or two games on Sunday, you would be wise to select teams which you believe can win the game S/U. After all, those S/U winners do cover 83% (on avg) every NFL season. And that is a fact, regardless of what school you went to.

One last thing --- Nowhere did I say this was easy to do. I don't and didn't advocate betting every game on the board and I only offered this info as an additional tool to help achieve that elusive 54+ % wiinning mark.

And this is not some theory ... It is just a fact.
The S/U winners are 41-7 ATS (30-2 ATS the past two weeks)
You can make all the criticisms you want, but those numbers are what they are.

And think back to all those times when Philly (for example) was a favorite and you figured they could win, but probabl would not cover that damn spread. Don't you think it would have helped you decide on your wager if you knew ahead of time that the S/U winner was 46-4-1 ATS (92%) in their last 51 games? If Philly was a 6-point home fave over Dallas and you thought Dallas could not win the game, but they should certainly keep it under 6, so you wager on Dallas +6, you are asking for something to happen that has only happened in 8% of the past 51 Philly games.

That 8% (17% on avg) that you say is no laughing matter, is only true when comparing it to a number less than 17, NOT when compaing it to 83%.

The point of the post was to show people that despite what we were led to believe, and we have all assumed to be true forever, the fact of the matter is --- NFL games are rarely decided by the spread. PERIOD !!

aiverson · Oct 1, 2009

CHANCE said:
It seems that a few of you are missing the point ---

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<hr style="background-color: rgb(253, 222, 130); color: rgb(253, 222, 130);" size="1">To pick S/U winner, you have to pay high juice. Need a much higher winning percentage to be profitable.
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Nowhere did I suggest that anyone bet any team to win S/U, unless you are wagering on the dog. Nobody has to pay HIGH juice. If you played GB -7 last week and lost, your juice is still 10%. I didn't suggest betting GB on the ML. The idea is to NOT bet a single digit dog, UNLESS you can make a case for them to win the game S/U.

And, Iverson --- I went to no Ace - Ace school and I am not a young gambler. I have been doing this for 35 years, not that that should matter.

And yes, 17% is suibstantial, BUT 83% is more substantial. I am not saying any of this is easy, merely stating that as much as we want to not believe, because we have been conditioned to look for that elusive value, NFL games are rarely decided by the spread.

As for the infomercial remark --- Infomercials are shown to sell you something --- All I am saying (not selling) is that if you play one or two games on Sunday, you would be wise to select teams which you believe can win the game S/U. After all, those S/U winners do cover 83% (on avg) every NFL season. And that is a fact, regardless of what school you went to.

One last thing --- Nowhere did I say this was easy to do. I don't and didn't advocate betting every game on the board and I only offered this info as an additional tool to help achieve that elusive 54+ % wiinning mark.

And this is not some theory ... It is just a fact.
The S/U winners are 41-7 ATS (30-2 ATS the past two weeks)
You can make all the criticisms you want, but those numbers are what they are.

And think back to all those times when Philly (for example) was a favorite and you figured they could win, but probabl would not cover that damn spread. Don't you think it would have helped you decide on your wager if you knew ahead of time that the S/U winner was 46-4-1 ATS (92%) in their last 51 games? If Philly was a 6-point home fave over Dallas and you thought Dallas could not win the game, but they should certainly keep it under 6, so you wager on Dallas +6, you are asking for something to happen that has only happened in 8% of the past 51 Philly games.

That 8% (17% on avg) that you say is no laughing matter, is only true when comparing it to a number less than 17, NOT when compaing it to 83%.

The point of the post was to show people that despite what we were led to believe, and we have all assumed to be true forever, the fact of the matter is --- NFL games are rarely decided by the spread. PERIOD !!

I didn't intend to say that you, personally were young. Moreso that young gamblers are on this board, reading these threads, and I don't want them to be led down the wrong path.

Technically your statement "NFL games are rarely decided by the spread" is dependent upon your definition of "rarely". 17% is not that rare. And when the margin of a winning season vs. a losing season is a matter of a few percentage points, 17% is HUGE.

This is not math class where 83% > 17% and thus, points are insignificant.

Points are huge, fighting for that -105 vs -115 or -120 is huge. I can't believe if you have been doing this for 35+ years you don't know this. Long term, you always want to be +EV. Overpaying juice or getting a bad line because "who cares, points don't matter much" is definitely -EV.

immauser · Oct 1, 2009

GunShark said:
I'll stick with the ATS and it's too early in the season to predict any accurately.

i agree, its way too early right now to ditch the ATS.

krh7 · Oct 1, 2009

ace-ace always mentions this. the points matter in only 12-16% of nfl games.

if you like the fave, lay the points and don't buy hooks. if you like a short dog, take them on the ml to win straight up. you can pick at a much lower winning percentage and still be profitable if you are picking the right dogs.

aiverson · Oct 1, 2009

krh7 said:
ace-ace always mentions this. the points matter in only 12-16% of nfl games.

if you like the fave, lay the points and don't buy hooks. if you like a short dog, take them on the ml to win straight up. you can pick at a much lower winning percentage and still be profitable if you are picking the right dogs.

Forget what Ace Ace says. Does not mean it is right. Read my comments above and think for yourself.

pgcluu · Oct 1, 2009

sound like everybody is RIGHT. those info are good to know and for entertainment purpose. we all come here to help each others to win. so, share your pick(s) and if you are a winner. you are #1.

don't waste time on this, working on this wk games and post here.

peace

aiverson said:
Forget what Ace Ace says. Does not mean it is right. Read my comments above and think for yourself.

Romanowski · Oct 1, 2009

lol this is comical

spreads dont matter in outcomes, for a low % of games

dogs win out right, favs cover close to 85% of the time

now tell me who all the SU winners are this sunday/monday

lmao clown

Shamrocks33 · Oct 1, 2009

Romanowski said:
lol this is comical

spreads dont matter in outcomes, for a low % of games

dogs win out right, favs cover close to 85% of the time

now tell me who all the SU winners are this sunday/monday

lmao clown

Didn't you know? Picking winners in the NFL is child's play :laugh:

BAGIANT · Oct 1, 2009

I've been stating that fact for years and years also. The problem is, most players play the favorites, and you have to have a balance of upset dog winners to get a high % of wins.

midman2161 · Oct 1, 2009

I agree.. what he says makes sense and there are good numbers ATS to back it up, still doesnt make it any easier to pick the Bengals to upset the Steelers or Jets the Titans