For those of u Who think Bulls "Looks too ez"

zeketaylor · Dec 2, 2008

last night arkansas state went on the road to face Indiana State, in terre haute IN. ISU opened as a 4 pt favorite, and closed at -3 or -3.5...depending where u got it...

Indiana state was 0-4, and Arkansas State was 3-1, and ark state was 4-0 , i repeat....undefeated aganist theh spread, and facing a team that had yet to win a game, and was 1-3 ATS....so when vegas makes the losers Indiana State -4 faves at home vs a team thats 4-0 ATS....guess what happens? They effectively get a bunch of sharps to say "ahhhhh....they want us to bet Ark State...Im gonna bet Indiana State.....well it was a close game, with Ark state winning by 2 in the end outright....

The books are completely aware when they put a line out there (especially on blah blah days like monday and tuesday......i totally agree friday and saturday lines that look fishy are traps for recreational bettors), that people who bet sharp action are gonna interpret most lines they look at as trap plays. My point? Some times, its as ez as it looks, the line is probably correct in most cases......

At -2.... theres no reason to think bulls -2 is a bad play because it "looks to ez".....for fans of the NBa , they know the sixers game was a tale of 2 different halves........Ive been focusing much more lately on deciding when to "fade" these looks too ez plays....and when to recognize when its really as simple as it looks.....tonight...i feel it is quite ez

ZJP6050 · Dec 2, 2008

NBA and NCAAB aren't even comparable lol...you never know when the thugs of the NBA will show up. NCAAB = all heart (at least at the beginning!)

win some money tonight zeke buddy

zeketaylor · Dec 2, 2008

zjp6050 said:
NBA and NCAAB aren't even comparable lol...you never know when the thugs of the NBA will show up. NCAAB = all heart (at least at the beginning!)

win some money tonight zeke buddy

its not at a ll the game thats actually played that im t alkin about...its the lines and how "sharp bettors" interpret them.....

yanni_gogolak · Dec 2, 2008

im confused as to why ppl think this line looks to easy? these are too bad teams right now, both underachieving. CHI won b/c of a 31-11 3rd qtr last game. thats a 20 pt swing and CHI won by 11. you are betting that that is going to happen again?

HighFlyinKilla · Dec 2, 2008

I don't understand how anyone can think the Bulls look like an easy win. Because they beat Philly in Philly now suddenly they can't lose? If anything thats the reason I like the 6ers in this game. The loser of the first game in the home and home usually wins the next game. Its even better because this games in Chi so they could'nt juice Philly with a high spread.

brewers7 · Dec 2, 2008

Zeke, I understand what you are saying...

Just because it looks "easy" to take the Bulls, the "smart" bettor will take the other side, but that does NOT work every time...If it did, I'd be a millionaire already from looting vegas lines...

But it wins more times than it loses, IMO...You HAVE to pick your spots...I have been doing this for over 20 years and HighFlyinKilla is right, between fairly evenly matched teams on a home-and-home series, the team that wins the first game generally loses the next one...Every time??...No way...Not even close...But enough to make it a rule of thumb?...Yeah, I would agree with that...I would say that would be the "default" play until you see enough evidence to get away from the default play...

And NCAA is a completely different game than the NBA...Completely different...They don't play on back-to-back nights (except tourneys, and usually there, BOTH teams are playing back-to-back) and the trends that work in the NBA simply do not correlate to the NCAA game...they just don't...I tried it for a few seasons about 15 years ago...The NBA is a LOT more situational...The NCAA is not...But you are right about certain betting spots like the one you mentioned...But I don't know if it correlates to the NCAA game the way it does to the NBA game...

Anyway, I DO understand what you are saying here...It is a valid point that must be considered every time this spot comes up...

But you still could not pay me to take Chicago here...HighFlyinKilla is right again when he says that Vegas is "stuck" here...They really cannot put the line where they want to because the game is at CHI and you simply cannot make CHI a Home Dog in this spot...Can't do it...So to me, there is value here in taking the Philly because vegas is between a rock and a hard place...

zeketaylor · Dec 2, 2008

yanni_gogolak said:
im confused as to why ppl think this line looks to easy? these are too bad teams right now, both underachieving. CHI won b/c of a 31-11 3rd qtr last game. thats a 20 pt swing and CHI won by 11. you are betting that that is going to happen again?

not at all.....chicago is 5-2 at home and philly is 2-6 on the road....rose made some icnredible moves thayt mad ehighlight reels in the 2nd half of that game, and has a confidence verse andre miller thats gonna carry over here.....is ee bulls in wire to wire victory....dont see them needing a 31-11 3rd qtr to cover here.....

I always fast forward to the end of the game, and rewind my life.....do i find myself more often saying "wow....it really was that ez?"....or do i find myself saying "i knew that line was too good to be true"......when i first started ...more often is aid the latter.......over the last few years....i find myself saying"vegas giving away free money now, it really was that ez".......

basically im finding being sharp lately has to do w ith using the 2nd level of reverse psychology which results in making the original square play

OccamsRazor · Dec 2, 2008

"basically im finding being sharp lately has to do with using the 2nd level of reverse psychology which results in making the original square play ." :think2:

Zeke Taylor.

thou think that thy thinking is a tad too thoughtful.:monsters-

just pick the better team and avoid an aneurysm.

zeketaylor · Dec 2, 2008

OccamsRazor said:
"basically im finding being sharp lately has to do with using the 2nd level of reverse psychology which results in making the original square play ." :think2:

Zeke Taylor.

thou think that thy thinking is a tad too thoughtful.:monsters-

just pick the better team and avoid an aneurysm.