Football Wagering: What Will Be Your Goals and Why?

[oldmanTED]

As we await the beginning of football season, thought it might be interesting to discuss various related topics over the next few weeks. With that in mind, thought a discussion on goals might be appropriate. I've always felt it important to establish goals prior to beginning of the football season. This way one can work towards a reasonably set target and hopefully remain disciplined to achieve their goal. I have a number of goals which I try to achieve during the season but a couple that are pretty standard are as follows:

Winning Percentage: 55%-60%
Increase Bankroll Percentage: 60% or better

Please feel free to share your thoughts and goals for the upcoming football season.

 

[TheGeneral+]

Reduce my wagers, get away from a sport that is tough for me to win at, but try and make a dollar or two by using good money management and help from posters in the forum.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Turn a profit.

 

[SSI]

same as you ted,,,,, ill probably play 3-4 on saturday and 2-3 on sunday.. probably wont vary that much,,, will probably flat bet mostly and take a few selected shots, no more than one a week... 57% would be a nice number...

 

[oldirtyku]

Ted,

I want to reduce my NFL play's to max one a week. I hit a very low percent of my plays so I want to reduce them and eliminate them id possible.

College football:

55% 1 unit plays.
70% 2 units plays (7-3 I avg about 10 a year)
80% 3 unit plays (4-1 I avg about 5 a year)

The goal is to make 25 units. If I hit that I will be VERY Happy.
Ku

 

[PanchoSanza]

Make 200 dimes.

 

[barman]

I'm like you....I will likely play a lot of NFL for the social fun factor at parties etc, but for about 1/3 of my normal Unit size, since I struggle to stay ahead in the NFL.

College will likely be about as normal with a goal to win 3+ units weekly.

 

[WildBill]

As always, just make sure I get the best numbers and let the results fall where they may. I think goal setting for such a variable and short season like football can border on self-destructive. But that is just my opinion...

 

[oldmanTED]

WildBill:

Can you possibly elaborate on how you feel setting goals "can border on self-destructive"? Respect your opinion.

 

[wilheim]

Personally never set season long goals. I set ROI goals by deposit. For example a deposit of 10K IMO would be sucessful with a ROI of 12K after 2 weeks of play. Not sure if this makes sense to anyone, but I try to play my bankroll up to cash-out levels, so moving 10k to 12k after week 2 would allow me a 2K withdrawal (my minimumn).


wil.

 

[Kevy]

College: I'm debating on maybe just concentrating on the Pac-10 (I live in Portland) and maybe just playing a couple
sides and a total or vice versa. I do really well on Pac-10, but I end up getting stupid/undisciplined and playing some of the televised non Pac-10 games to have some action. I will use more discipline, and just stick with the Pac-10.

NFL: The last two season's have been two of my most profitable ever (02' and 03') after my worst season ever which was 01' What helped me the last two years was getting and keeping disciplined (something I will try to be in College wagering for the first time). In the NFL I will maybe play 3 to 6 sides or totals combined. I also have avoided jumping off any plays just because a hot capper is on the other side for example. Or the scamdicappers on Sunday morning like em too. After I do my home work and narrow down my plays, once I place them, I don't play any head games and second guess myself (win or lose).

 

[WildBill]

Goals are good for longer seasons or even full years. Football is just too short of a season with too few samples, at least for me, to be able to really expect to come close to goals. If I have a 65% season it wouldn't be too shocking, but I will have shattered all my goals if I made them. Now what happens if year two I go 49%? Same thing. Goal achievement is just very hard to do because football is almost like 4 or 5 weeks of bases. The reason I think it could be destructive is the majority of people treat football as 1 and 1A in their sports betting year. Not good, but once again just my opinion.

 

[SportSavant]

Ted,

Great TOPIC...

My main goal is going to be to ALWAYS REMEMBER, that each game is simply 1 GAME. What I mean is that the NFL sometimes seems larger than Life... I have often forced wagers on the NFL due to the lack of Games... (Every played on the Monday nighter just for the sake of action?

)

These are mistakes I usually do not make in NHL, NBA or MLB due to the fact that there are so many games & the events are not as spectaculor.

 

[Illini]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Kevy:
College: I'm debating on maybe just concentrating on the Pac-10 (I live in Portland) and maybe just playing a couple
sides and a total or vice versa. I do really well on Pac-10, but I end up getting stupid/undisciplined and playing some of the televised non Pac-10 games to have some action. I will use more discipline, and just stick with the Pac-10.

NFL: The last two season's have been two of my most profitable ever (02' and 03') after my worst season ever which was 01' What helped me the last two years was getting and keeping disciplined (something I will try to be in College wagering for the first time). In the NFL I will maybe play 3 to 6 sides or totals combined. I also have avoided jumping off any plays just because a hot capper is on the other side for example. Or the scamdicappers on Sunday morning like em too. After I do my home work and narrow down my plays, once I place them, I don't play any head games and second guess myself (win or lose).<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You give me your Pac 10 plays and I'll give you my Big Ten plays, and we should roll. I don't think I won a single Pac 10 game last year. Most difficult and unpredictable conference season ever, I felt. Did you make money on that conference last year? If so, wow! I cleaned up the Big 10 pretty well the last 2 years.

 

[silver7]

Glad I`m not alone in my struggles w/NFL. Usually up by Sat. nite, 24 hrs later lost a % back. In my case I think it`s because of my love for CFB. I like the pro game but not like coll. for me. Therefore I spend most of the week going over everything re. Sat. and neglect the NFL. So when Sunday AM arrives I`m scurrying around with #`s,info and decisions. Not very organized to say the least. But I AM smart enough to recognize this and bet Sun. games for much less than Sat. As w/you Bar mostly social.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

My goal is to remain consistently profitable, why? Because I hate losing, I do not do this for recreation or fun. No %'s, no amounts, none of that. Last thing I need is to put self induced pressure on myself. I cap the games, recap and pull trigger. Also scalp, middle and collect bonuses that I can. In my mind, if you set a goal, let's say 100 dimes, and in Novemeber you are up only 20 dimes, you have to upwardly adjust your % of bankroll wagered to realistically have a chance to meet that goal. It can actually be detrimental, and can cause loss of betting discipline, and possibly chasing. Since in Foots I gauge my profits/losses weekly, I try to string winning weeks. But again, like the marathon man, I really just want to keep moving forward, steady, slow and focused. If I follow that plan, I should be profitable at the end of season. % of plays won, will not matter, and I make what I make. % of bankroll expansion is important, but same there, I hope it is large. I would prefer to spend all of my time, capping, shopping and staring at the screen. Tracking progress towards goals makes nothing. Best Wsihes...OF

Also would like to do well on NFL contests.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Hard to make goals. Just pick more winners than losers.

That isn't a smart ass comment. I basically play the ML no matter what the line. Since as long as you can pick the SU winner you will win about 84% of your bets.

I never bet teams that are laying more than 7, so that helps out the odds quite a bit, but on those mid level fave I will sometimes split between ML and spread. I only do this because faves that win SU cover about 70% of the time, and counting pushes they have a non loss rate of about 75% of the time. These are for closing numbers at only one book. If you get the best number then I am sure there is a plus 2-3% to these numbers over that time period.

But I try to kep it simple.

 

[dimeplayersonly]

my main goals this football season.........

is not to smash any tv's or break any computer equipment...

dont yell at other people, blaming them for my mistakes...

dont cry because i made a 6k error on the books (not in my favor) at the end of the week.......

dont gloat if all the close games fall my way.......

dont tell my clerks to call me god, when i beat the game with a half-point while every other shop pushed...

dont cuss if all the close games fall the other way....

dont talk back, when my clerks call me an idiot for losing a game using a half-point, while every other shop pushed...

dont get middled on any totals (or sides) this bowl season....
(this is a very personal subject with me, and i have had to seek counseling in the past because i have been middled)

dont work with a hangover.......

joking aside..........having an important frame of mind is very important and underated....some serious suggestions are..

1. get organized....have a place where you can work in peace without interruption, ie. office or study....its hard to work if you have a wife or kids yelling and screaming in your ear.....

2. dont overdue it...staying up handicapping games until 3am isnt good......

3. if you are a serious handicapper and use multiple outs, and follow line changes during the entire day, time is of the essence.... think about getting some help...someone to keep track of line-movements or enter figures into your data-base, how many times have you wanted to bet a game, but got busy and missed the tip-off????

4. treat betting like a business

5. keep detailed records of progess (and set-backs)...ACCURRATE RECORDS....NOT GUESTIMATES.....

6. follow your game plan.....and dont vary it...(if you set a certain profit goal for the day, and reached it....dont blow it back on the last game....becuase you feel lucky)


just a few thoughts off the top of my head...but the above can help you maintain discipline...which will help you win in the long run..gl

 

[Kevy]

Illini, I was terrible on the few televised Big 10 games that I wagered on. Would gladly swap any info or insight this upcoming season. The majority of my Pac-10 wagers involve Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, and Washington. Here in Portland our local sports talk radio station, does a excellent job of covering the Pac-10. The Oregonian, our local paper does an excellent job on the two state schools. They also cover the conference very well. Also having access to the two Seattle newspapers and Spokane newspaper helps also. But alot of the really good info comes from our local sports talk radio shows. Quite a few of the on air personalities on these shows wager on both College and Pro.

 

[Illini]

Kevy- sounds good, man. We'll definitely have to talk each week and exchange info. My brother and I are huge Big Ten junkies, and have done pretty well the last two years. But we need serious help in the Pac Ten. Sadly, betting against Illinois was a cash machine last year. I ashamedly did take advantage a few times, even though I will pay for it dearly in the afterlife.