FOOTBALL NEWSLETTERS (WEEK #8)

[SportsGuru]

POINTWISE COLLEGIATE & PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* CLEMSON over North Carolina
1* PURDUE over Michigan
2* GEORGIA TECH over Maryland
2* WYOMING over San Diego State
3* TOLEDO over Ball State
4* ARIZONA STATE over Ucla
5* TULSA over Southern Methodist
5* MINNESOTA over Illinois

Detailed Analysis of NCAA Key Releases

Purdue 24 - MICHIGAN 23 - (12:00) -- Wolves have scored 87 pts in their last 5 quarters, along with 57 FDs in last 2 outings. Check 275 RYs at Illinois, after averaging just 83 in previous 4 games. Boilers on 6 game run (SU & ATS), & have 15, 19, & 13½ minute time edges in last 3. Purdue rush "D" the key here.

CLEMSON 45 - North Carolina 10 - (3:30) -- Check the stats of UNC's final play loss to ArizSt. That's right, a 598-331 yd deficit. Heels field the worst "D" in the nation, & won't contain the streaking & balanced Tigers, who've held the likes of GT, Va, & NCSt to 45, 53, & 70 RYs respectively. Covered first chalk role by 9. reeling from 45-14 home loss to Memphis, as 5-pt chalks. Stand at 5-2, with losses by 47 & 31 pts. If rush "D" returns, could give Tcu anxious moments.

Wyoming 33 - SAN DIEGO STATE 30 - (9:00) -- Cowboy upset of BYU wasn't in classic 'Poke style. No offensive TDs, after 48 pts previous week. Aztecs can't run (43 ypg last 3), & are in off 11, 12½, & 22 pt ATS losses. Threw 59 passes vs NMex: 7 pts. That says it all. Bramlet had field day LY, & will again.

GEORGIA TECH 27 - Maryland 20 - (7:30 - ESPN) -- Both squads had LW off. The Terps have been one of the better "go-to" squads for the past 2½ seasons, but note that they are on an 0-4 road spread slide, by 20 ppg. Had a 44-yd deficit vs Duke in last outing. Jackets have posted 3 outright upsets, so a revenge call.

NFL KEY RELEASES
2* TAMPA BAY over Dallas
3* NEW ORLEANS over Carolina
4* CLEVELAND over New England
4* TENNESSEE over Jacksonville
5* CINCINNATI over Seattle

Detailed Analysis of NFL Key Releases

TAMPA BAY 30 - Dallas 13 - (1:00) -- The Cowboys are possibly this season's #1 NFL story. Parcells' genius has guided them to 5 wins thus far, which matches their total wins in each of the previous 3 years (5-11, 5-11, & 5-11). Check RY edges of 51, 54, 136, 65, & 51 in 5 of Dallas' 6 games. Check also, the 'Boys 25-9 FD edge over the Lions. They do seem to get better with each game. However, this week presents a huge roadblock. Catching the Bucs off a loss has been pure murder for their foes. After Tampa's first 2 setbacks, it won 31-10 (14½ pt cover), & 35-13 (19-pt cover). Bucs ceded 458 yds at SanFran, & had a 212-68 RY deficit. This showcase contest again presents them with a golden opportunity. Bucs are amazing 19-1 ATS after being upset. Too much, even for Parcells, who almost took Buc job LY.

NEW ORLEANS 26 - Carolina 13 - (4:15) -- Season's first revenge setup, as the Panthers recorded 19-13 win over the Saints, just 3 wks ago. Carolina had its perfect record snapped in style with 37-17 home loss to the Titans (21-pt ATS loss), with Davis managing only 20 RYs. Must try to regroup vs a Saint squad, which may have finally found itself in thrashing of Atlanta. In that one, McAllister reached 100 RYs for the 4th straight wk, complementing Brooks' 352 PYs. Carolina has squeaked by in its last 3 RGs, winning by 4, 3, & 3 pts (last 2 in OT), but it ends here. Saints are no 1-wk wonders.

 

[SportsGuru]

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[This message was edited by The General on November 07, 2003 at 07:32 PM.]

 

[SportsGuru]

THE RED SHEET

RED SHEET ONLINE RATINGS:
89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR PLAY
88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE PLAY

NEBRASKA 48 - Iowa State 10 - (12:30 EDT) -- Line opened at Nebraska minus 22, and is now minus 23½. A year ago, the Cyclones ran off 6 straight wins, behind QB Wallace's brilliance, climbing into the top ten in the land. But they were murdered in their showcase match with Oklahoma, & it has been all down hill since. They are on a 3-11 SU slide, as well as a 1-10 spread run. Their defense has been mauled by the week, & ranks 108th in the nation. Check allowing 107 FDs the past 3 weeks! A week ago, they hosted Texas, & were outgained 346-45 in the first half. Yes, the list of their current dismal performances is long indeed.The Huskers, on the other hand, field the nation's #2 defense. Not only that, but scoreboard is finally reflecting their on-field showing. Revenge is game's name.
RATING: NEBRASKA 89

Syracuse 34 - PITTSBURGH 31 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Pittsburgh minus 7½, and is now minus 7. A year ago, the Panthers turned an early 3-0 deficit into a 48-3 lead, before eventual 48-24 win over the Orange. That one ended an 11-game series losing streak to the 'Cuse. Pitt wound up last season with a 38-13 blowout of OregonSt in the Insight Bowl, & with 15 starters back, including the most dangerous combo in the nation (Rutherford-to-Fitzgerald), great things were expected this year. However, the Panthers are struggling, with their "D"Ranking 86th in the nation. Emergence of Orange QB Anderson (20-of-27 vs BC), complements Reyes' brilliant running, behind an ever-improving "O" line. Yet another revenger.
RATING: SYRACUSE 89

Arizona State 31 - UCLA 24 - (10:00) -- Line opened at Ucla minus 3½, and is now minus 3. A week ago, we had the Sun Devils as a high choice on Pointwise, & they failed to bring home the bacon at NoCarolina, despite winning SU on a 5-yd Walter pass on the game's final play. An outright loss in that one would have marked their 4th in 5 games, with the distinct possibility of towel tossing. However, that comeback ensures an all-out effort here. In that narrow escape vs UNC, Walter threw for 408 yds, & now has 724 the past 2 weeks, to go along with 6 TD passes. Spells trouble for Bruins, who rank 69th in aerial defense. And Ucla ranks
114th in rushing offense. Devils are finally showing pre-season potential.
RATING: ARIZONA STATE 88

CLEMSON 45 - North Carolina 14 - (12:00) -- Line opened at Clemson minus 13, and is now minus 13½. This one goes directly against one of the strongest current trends in college ball, namely the success of the visitor when the Heels take the field. The guest is on a 16-3 ATS run in UNC games. However, it was 16-2 before LW's miss, so all things come to an end. A week ago, as noted above, the Tars went down on the game's final play, which is the ultimate drainer. Heels rank 107, 111, & 116 in rushing, passing, & total "D". Not proper credentials in attempting to contain efficient Tiger offense. And defensively, Clemson ranks 22nd. The series favorite has covered 12-of-15, for yet another edge. Lay the pts!
RATING: CLEMSON 88

TEXAS A&M 38 - Oklahoma State 33 - (3:30 -- Line opened at OklahomaSt minus 6, and is still minus 6. We earlier had the smoking Cowboys as a 10-pt winner in this one, but respected sources have convinced us that this is the spot to step out with the Aggies. OkieSt is in off a pair of monumental drainers (38-34 win over KansasSt, & 51-49 triumph over TexasTech), & has arch-rival Oklahoma up next week. If this doesn't represent a flat spot, the term has no meaning. There is no questioning the ability of 'Pokes' quick-strike offense, but A&M posted73 pts in its last hoster, & has been contained only by Nebraska's 2nd-rated stop unit. Franchione regroups Aggies, after that horrid 8 turnover showing vs the Huskers.
RATING: TEXAS A&M 88

PITTSBURGH 30 - St Louis 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Pick-em, and is now Pittsburgh minus 1½. To say that the Steelers have been a disappointment, in the NFL's early going, would be a hugeunderstatement. A year ago, Pitt was a single play from making it to the AFC title game, & was figured to be there again. But, since its opening week blowout of Baltimore, Pittsburgh has impressed only in its narrow loss at Denver. Not only that, but check near identical 30-13 & 33-13 home losses in its last hoster. However, Steelers had last week off, & are 14-5 ATS at home off a pair of losses. Rams have been great at home, but this marks 1st road trip in more than a month, & they've been less than special on natural turf.
RATING: PITTSBURGH STEELERS 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Purdue, Tulsa, Stanford, Mississippi -- NFL: Tampa, New Orleans, San Diego

 

[to81]

THANKS FOR POSTING THESE NEWSLETTER SPORTS GURU.

UCUNV

 

[SportsGuru]

WINNING POINTS NEWSLETTER

SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** Pittsburgh over St. Louis by 17
*** Buffalo over *Kansas City by 8

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*New Orleans over Carolina by 11
Dallas over *Tampa Bay by 4

NFL TOTALS:

**OVER: Houston at Indianapolis – The Texans are giving up an average of more than 28 points per game, and the potent Colts offense figures to be even stronger with the return of Edgerrin James to the lineup.

UNDER: Cleveland at New England – The Browns have held more than half their opponents to 13 or fewer points, but could encounter problems on offense with backup linemen dealing with Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s multiple defensive looks.

UNDER: New York Jets at Philadelphia – Only one team has scored more than 23 points on the Jets, while the Eagles are getting healthier on defense with the return of cornerbacks Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor.

SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:

BEST BETS
**** NOTRE DAME over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14
*** PURDUE over MICHIGAN* by 8

RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Tennessee over Alabama* by 14
Syracuse over Pittsburgh* by 3
Texas A&M* over Oklahoma State by 4
Virginia* over Troy State by 14

DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BETS

****BEST BET
*Pittsburgh over St. Louis by 17
The Rams take to the road for the first time in five weeks. They haven’t met the Steelers in seven years and will be on grass for the first time this season, where their record against the spread the past three years is a dismal 4-11. The Rams were just 1-7 SU last year on the road. This is a special game for the Steelers. It’s their 1,000 regular season game, and the FOX network crew will note the historic occasion by broadcasting their pre-game show live from a studio set up in Heinz Field. The Steelers ranked fifth in rush defense going into their bye, and the Rams still figure to be without Marshall Faulk and maybe his backup Lamar Gordon (check status). So don’t expect the Rams to have any kind of successful ground attack. The Steelers’ rebuilt offensive line has had trouble protecting QB Tommy Maddox, who hasn’t thrown a TD pass the past 14 quarters and has been picked off 19 times the last 14 games. Maddox has been pressing too much. Given an extra week of preparation, look for the Steelers to regroup and be primed for this matchup. Getting left offensive tackle Marvel Smith back this week is a huge key for Pittsburgh. He’s missed the past three games with a pinched nerve forcing the Steelers to use more combos than a drive-through Wendy’s hamburger joint with their offensive linemen. All that shifting around has had a negative effect on Maddox. The Steelers’ 2-4 record is deceiving when you consider the quality of their opponents. The combined record of their foes is 24-15 heading into Monday. The Rams are a carpet team that plays much better at home. This is Pittsburgh’s spot. Expect them to be well prepared, solidified at last on the offensive line and to play with a great deal of urgency knowing they can kiss their season goodbye if they fall to 2-5. PIITSBURGH 30-13.

***BEST BET
Buffalo over *Kansas City by 8
Going into Monday night’s game against Oakland, the Chiefs ranked fourth from the bottom in total defense, including last in rush yardage allowing 4.9 yards per carry. Their last three foes had rushed for 202, 176 and 183 yards against them. While faster and more athletic defensively than last season, the Chiefs still are not a physical unit. The Bills have a balanced offense with Drew Bledsoe throwing to star WR Eric Moulds, and Travis Henry rushing. Bledsoe should be able to effectively go after cornerbacks Eric Warfield and Dexter McCleon, who only have marginal coverage skills. Turnovers and big plays by kick and punt return star Dante Hall have masked some hidden Kansas City deficiencies that include a weak rush defense, a mediocre passing attack and vulnerable secondary. Consider the Chiefs were tied 10-10 with the Ravens in the fourth quarter before Hall broke the game open with a 97-yard kickoff return. The Broncos out-gained the Chiefs by 208 yards, but lost by one point on a fantastic 93-yard punt return by Hall. The Packers blew a 17-point fourth quarter lead when a tipped pass led to a Kansas City interception return for a touchdown. The Chiefs also were out-gained in that game, too, until overtime. The Chiefs’ record wouldn’t look so gaudy if they had lost a couple of these games. The Bills’ defense is coming around as newcomers Takeo Spikes, Sam Adams and Lawyer Milloy learn the system. This is a tough turnaround spot for the Chiefs despite being at home. The Chiefs were nip and tuck with Denver three weeks ago, beat Green Bay in overtime two weeks ago and were on the national stage again this past Monday playing their old arch-rival the Raiders. Those games take a toll. Note to totals players, the Bills have gone under in 15 of their last 17 dating back to last season. BUFFALO 24-16.


**PREFERRED
*New Orleans over Carolina by 11
Stop Stephen Davis and you stop the Panthers. It helps, too, to have a hot quarterback, which Aaron Brooks was last week for the Saints, throwing for 352 yards and three touchdowns. The Saints piled up 497 yards of offense against Atlanta in a 45-17 victory. That win should give the dangerous, but ego damaged Saints a boost of needed confidence. We realize the Panthers’ defense is nowhere as bad as the Falcons’ defense, and Carolina has won nine of its last 11. So is picking the Saints an overreaction from last week? No. When the teams met three weeks ago the Saints still out-gained the Panthers, 344-309, despite Brooks not being sharp. Brooks is playing much better now. The Panthers’ excellent defensive line won’t be able to tee off on Brooks because RB Deuce McAllister is having a second straight brilliant season, going above the 100-yard rushing mark each of the past four weeks. Defensively the Saints have held their last three foes, Carolina, Chicago and Atlanta, to an average of one offensive touchdown. New Orleans has held four of their seven opponents to less than 20 points. The Saints definitely will be keying on Davis, but they also know the tendencies of Carolina QB Jake Delhomme. Before coming to Carolina this season, Delhomme was the Saints’ backup QB for five seasons. NEW ORLEANS 27-16.

**PREFERRED
Dallas over *Tampa Bay by 4
The Cowboys have won and covered all but one game, are 3-0 on the road and have lost only two fumbles all season. So why not take a shot with them against the struggling Super Bowl champions? Through Week 6 the Cowboys ranked third in defense and fourth in offense. And that was before out-gaining Detroit, 330-150, in a 38-7 romp this past Sunday so the ratings are sure to climb. Talking playoffs is no longer a foreign subject anymore in Dallas. The Cowboys are off to their best start in eight years and their confidence is growing and growing. The Cowboys had been 5-11 the prior three seasons under Dave Campo, mainly because they couldn’t win on the road. Bill Parcells has changed that. Dallas already has more road victories this season than the two previous years combined. Veteran wideouts Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway have rejuvenated their careers thanks to Parcells and QB Quincy Carter, who has displayed a willingness to throw downfield. The Bucs haven’t been anything special at home under Jon Gruden, going 7-4. They have dropped three of their past four at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs’ defense has given up big yardage two of the last three weeks, and their offense has become one-dimensional because of lack of a consistent ground attack. DALLAS 21-17.

****BEST BET
NOTRE DAME over BOSTON COLLEGE* by 14
After seemingly finding themselves in that solid win at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, Tyrone Willingham and the Fighting Irish were rudely reminded of just how far they have to go to be back among the nation’s elite again in that decisive rout in South Bend vs. Southern Cal. Before they can compete with the likes of the Trojans they will need a significant upgrade in speed and big play ability, which can only be solved by future recruiting classes. But that does not mean that they are without certain strengths right now, and much like the road win two weeks ago, their tools can carry the day here. Now they are not facing any kind of talent disadvantage, which means that the discipline of Willingham, tenacious running of Julius Jones, and a defense that can dominate when not facing the U.S.C. caliber of athletes, all come to the front. Motivation is easy to find, with films of last year’s 14-7 home loss to these Eagles reminding them of a bitter afternoon in which the Irish were uncharacteristically the ones making mistakes – they led 22-9 in first downs and 357-184 in total offense, but turned the ball over five times, including an interception that was returned for a TD. Boston College has not been dominating anyone with the defensive front this season, which is somewhat hidden by a soft early schedule (perhaps only Miami of the first seven opponents will be bowl bound), and Quinton Porter and the rest of the skill people on offense are average at best. NOTRE DAME 30-16.

***BEST BET
PURDUE over MICHIGAN* by 8
When an experienced Purdue squad arrived to spring practice dedicated to make up for 2002’s disappointing campaign, there was the promise of major things ahead. And that cast has more than held up to the pre-season promises, going 4-0 SU and ATS in revenge games so far. They will at least make it 5-0 ATS with the points being offered here, and with the veterans they have on their roster calling for the outright win on this field is not asking too much at all. That senior-laden defense is allowing only 66 yards per game on the ground and can keep Chris Perry in check here, which forces the inconsistent John Navarre to have to carry the load, something that we question his ability to do against a quality defense (something he has rarely had to face this season). Meanwhile the offense is also the ideal type to use as a road underdog, having turned the ball over only seven times in seven games. Maturing Kyle Orton turned in the best game of his career at Wisconsin last week, largely because he has veterans in John Standeford and Taylor Stubblefield that do not mind playing in hostile Big 10 environs. Those two combined for an amazing 30 catches at Madison last Saturday, and they lead a ball control attack that has a remarkable advantage of 103 offensive snaps over conference opponents in their three Big 10 games this season. Hard to find any edges that the host has in any particular matchup this week, so a “money line” should also be in order. PURDUE 28-20.

 

[Tigerseye]

Thanks for posting these!

 

[Brock Landers]

Even if most of the Analysis is total bogus bullshit LOL

The pittsburgh/St Louis matchup is laughble..

"is a special game for the Steelers. It’s their 1,000 regular season game, and the FOX network crew will note the historic occasion by broadcasting their pre-game show live from a studio set up in Heinz Field"

SO WHAT??? Thats all media hype and the players won't know or give a shit either way. had to be one of the dumbest things ever put in a review of a game to be supposedly used as an "angle".

Laughable ignorance...

 

[Big_Orange]

Thanks as always Sports Guru.