POINTWISE COLLGE AND PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* PITTSBURGH over Virginia Tech
1* OKLAHOMA over Texas A&M
2* FLORIDA STATE over Clemson
3* SYRACUSE over Temple
4* WAKE FOREST over North Carolina
4* DUKE over Georgia Tech
5* NORTHWESTERN over Penn State
5* NAVY over Notre Dame
NFL KEY RELEASES
2* TAMPA BAY over Carolina
3* DALLAS over Buffalo
3* NEW YORK JETS over Oakland
4* PITTSBURGH over Arizona
5* JACKSONVILLE over INDIANAPOLIS
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP KEY RATED PLAYS
PITTSBURGH 27 - Virginia Tech 20 - (12:00) -- Two moredefensive TDs for the Hokies in stellar upset of Miami. That pushes host spread edge to 7-0 this yr, the last 3 by 26, 35, & 34½ ATS. That being the case, have to call Panthers' number here. Still no rushing "O" for Pitt, but check 223 ypg "D" improvement last 2 weeks. Panthers own series. Until Rutherford to Fitzgerald is contained.
OKLAHOMA 52 - Texas A&M 10 - (3:30) -- What a masterpiece! Okies' double revenge rout of OklaSt featured perfect offensive balance, as well as holding formerly 445 ypg 'Poke "O" to 10 FDs & 161 yds. Chalk is on a 7-0 ATS run in Aggie games, by 30 ppg! Can't stop anyone, & hopeful offense will be crushed but note that the host is on a 5-0 ATS run in Orange games, by an average of 20.4 pts. Averaging 258 RYs & 181 PYs at home. Owls also had LW off, but were stung for 624.5 ypg by Miami & BC, & QB McGann is now ailing (elbow).
Tampa Bay 23 - CAROLINA 6 - (1:00) -- Bucs just can't put 2 wins together. Had 21-10 FD, & 362-257 yd edges vs the Saints, but lost in the last 0:08, thanks to 6 TOs. Can they continue to be a superb play off a win? It can't go on forever, but until things change, we certainly aren't about to look the other way. Panthers finally suffered a road loss, but check Davis with 153 RYs, on the heels of his franchise-record 178 previous week. In their first meeting (12-9 Panther OT win), Bucs had a 25-14 FD edge, but a 171-60 RY deficit. Look for that to change. Carolina lost its last HG, 37-17 (21-pt spread loss), & the Bucs are 20-1 ATS off a SU loss as a chalk. Like we said, it can't go on forever, but until Tampa fails, we ride the Bucs off a loss.
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
1* PITTSBURGH over Virginia Tech
1* OKLAHOMA over Texas A&M
2* FLORIDA STATE over Clemson
3* SYRACUSE over Temple
4* WAKE FOREST over North Carolina
4* DUKE over Georgia Tech
5* NORTHWESTERN over Penn State
5* NAVY over Notre Dame
NFL KEY RELEASES
2* TAMPA BAY over Carolina
3* DALLAS over Buffalo
3* NEW YORK JETS over Oakland
4* PITTSBURGH over Arizona
5* JACKSONVILLE over INDIANAPOLIS
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF TOP KEY RATED PLAYS
PITTSBURGH 27 - Virginia Tech 20 - (12:00) -- Two moredefensive TDs for the Hokies in stellar upset of Miami. That pushes host spread edge to 7-0 this yr, the last 3 by 26, 35, & 34½ ATS. That being the case, have to call Panthers' number here. Still no rushing "O" for Pitt, but check 223 ypg "D" improvement last 2 weeks. Panthers own series. Until Rutherford to Fitzgerald is contained.
OKLAHOMA 52 - Texas A&M 10 - (3:30) -- What a masterpiece! Okies' double revenge rout of OklaSt featured perfect offensive balance, as well as holding formerly 445 ypg 'Poke "O" to 10 FDs & 161 yds. Chalk is on a 7-0 ATS run in Aggie games, by 30 ppg! Can't stop anyone, & hopeful offense will be crushed but note that the host is on a 5-0 ATS run in Orange games, by an average of 20.4 pts. Averaging 258 RYs & 181 PYs at home. Owls also had LW off, but were stung for 624.5 ypg by Miami & BC, & QB McGann is now ailing (elbow).
Tampa Bay 23 - CAROLINA 6 - (1:00) -- Bucs just can't put 2 wins together. Had 21-10 FD, & 362-257 yd edges vs the Saints, but lost in the last 0:08, thanks to 6 TOs. Can they continue to be a superb play off a win? It can't go on forever, but until things change, we certainly aren't about to look the other way. Panthers finally suffered a road loss, but check Davis with 153 RYs, on the heels of his franchise-record 178 previous week. In their first meeting (12-9 Panther OT win), Bucs had a 25-14 FD edge, but a 171-60 RY deficit. Look for that to change. Carolina lost its last HG, 37-17 (21-pt spread loss), & the Bucs are 20-1 ATS off a SU loss as a chalk. Like we said, it can't go on forever, but until Tampa fails, we ride the Bucs off a loss.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS
BEST BETS
SEATTLE over *WASHINGTON by 14
*KANSAS CITY over CLEVELAND by 21
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*NY GIANTS over ATLANTA by 17
*CINCINNATI over HOUSTON by 14
BUFFALO over *DALLAS by 4
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS
SUPER BEST BET
*NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 27
BEST BETS
*NORTHWESTERN over PENN STATE by 8
*WASHINGTON STATE over UCLA by 22
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
WEST VIRGINIA over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 7
WISCONSIN over *MINNESOTA by 2
BALL STATE over *WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
KENT STATE over *OHIO by 6
TEXAS over *OKLAHOMA STATE by 10
*LOUISIANA TECH over SMU by 33
RUTGERS over *CONNECTICUT by 1
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
BEST BET
SEATTLE over *WASHINGTON by 14
You’ve got to be thinking that third time is the charm for Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks in their annual first-weekend-in-November match-up vs. the Redskins. Last year, a very banged-up Seattle team held its own defensively, but lost 14-3 on their home field when Steve Spurrier was smart enough to listen to someone outside his own head and ran theball at a weak Seattle defensive front. Two seasons ago, the Seahawks came East and laid an egg in DC, but that was a non-conference road game (when Seattle was in the AFC). The Seahawks are in better shape now than for either of the prior two, while Washington may not know which end is up. The two teams are contrasts in management. The Seattle owneryanked Holmgren from the GM spot and put a real guy there. Ownersown, GMs GM, and coaches coach players. But in Washington, the owner wants to do a lot more than own and it takes the goofy GM and coaches, and players, off track. Seattle’s defensive front is to the point where Holmgren is talking about having “numbers” at the position, and DT John Randle has been removed from every-down duties and shifted to third-downspecialist. That’s a very positive thing for Seattle’s run defense, and a bad thing for Washington QB Patrick Ramsey, who rarely gets good protection. Unsatisfactory protection will be even more of a problem now that the Seahawks have gotten their defensive secondary healthy again, because a hurried QB will be an intercepted QB. Ramsey was sacked 4 times for 43 yards in losses last week. Because of injuries, the Redskins have had no continuity in their running game, and even if RBs Ladell Betts or Trung Canidate return, it’s easy to see them being out of sync with the other guys because most of the others are already out of sync. SEATTTLE, 27-13.
BEST BET
*KANSAS CITY over CLEVELAND by 21
The popular story-line about the Chiefs this season is the Dick Vermeil parallel. Now in his third season as head coach at Kansas City, Vermeil won the Super Bowl in his third season as head coach of the Rams in 1999. But the more important Vermeil parallel from that year is that his Rams were 14-2 ATS in the regular season, when they averaged anNFL-record high +12 vs. the point-spread. The Chiefs are currently on pace to match that money-making level, at 7-1 ATS, playing +10.8 ATS on average, best in the NFL. In a season where favorites are covering nearly 55%, many pre-game cases made for the underdog have turned out to be real “stretches.” And that’s what a lean to the Browns would seem to be. They have a banged-up offensive line, and two QBs who may as well be named Bad and Worse. Their best running back, William Green, has apparently carried more weed than footballs. Dave Campo’s re-tooled Cleveland defense has been playing its heart out, not allowing a TD in three games this season. But when there is little support from the offense, sometimes the bottom falls out of a defense. KANSAS CITY, 37-16.
BEST BET
*NORTHWESTERN over PENN STATE by 8
The Nittany Lions rushed for 423 yards, including 257 by Larry Johnson, in a 49-0 win over Northwestern last year. Don’t expect those kind of numbers this time around as Johnson is in the NFL and nobody has stepped up to fill his large shoes. Wildcats have been more than respectable against the number this season, posting a 5-3-1 ATS record
so far. That includes a 16-7 home win over a Wisconsin team that beat Penn State in Happy Valley. Compare the Wildcats to the 2-7 ATS mark of Penn State, where the fingerpointing at longtime coach Joe Paterno continues unabated despite a nice try in a 21-20 loss to Ohio State (the Nittanies’ first cover since September). Off-the-field problems continueto dog the Lions, as yet another player was kicked off the team before last week’s game. On-the-field hasn’t been much better, as Paterno has flip-flopped between Michael Robinson and Zack Mills at QB, and neither has sparked this lifeless offense. Although this isn’t the Wildcats’ final home game (next week versus Michigan is), Northwestern’s playersare smart enough to realize they can win this game. Northwestern, 28-20
SUPER BEST BET
*NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 27
In Notre Dame’s fantasy season of 2002, when Ty was Fly and the majority of loose footballs slow-motioned into the waiting hands of wide-eyed Fighting Irish players, this match-up occurred during a “perfect storm” of converging handicapping fronts that pointed to Navy. Notre Dame had been coming off their first loss of the season after an 8-0 start, and spent the lead-in week applying for a spot on the Boulevard of Broken Dreams. Navy, meanwhile, in head coach Paul Johnson’s first season, was coming off a bye. It was the classic military ambush – a well-prepared, surprise attack on a distracted Axis Power – and Navy successfully torpedoed the chalk-players with a direct-hit, near-upset that landed three touchdowns inside the linemaker’s target. But now, Navy lacks all those important edges. The Middies’ offense is a known quantity to Ty Die, and there ain’t no bye. So say hi to the Irish method thatdowned academy-school Air Force last season, which is simple execution of offensive and defensive game plans by bigger, faster, stronger players who know what’s coming at them when they’re on defense, and whose offensive players can blow holes through and run past the Navy defenders. Throw out the 2003 straight-up and ATS records and the stats from their recent games this season. Don’t mean nothin’. NOTRE DAME, 37-10.
BEST BET
*WASHINGTON STATE over UCLA by 22
We have been wondering all season long just how good a team UCLA really is and this is the week we’re going to find out, although last week’s upset loss at 3-4 Stanford was a pretty good clue. We won’t hold a 54-29 trouncing at the hands of Oklahoma against the Bruins, and neither should you, because everyone gets thumped by the Sooners. So too, does almost everyone get thumped by USC, so let’s forget lastweek’s 43-16 embarrassment in LA and move on. The Cougars only other loss was ingame #1, a 29-26 OT loss in South Bend caused greatly by turnovers. The key to this game is a solid State defense that is 29th in the country, allowing just 19.8 PPG and 25th in total yards allowed. The Bruins have had trouble moving the ball all year (109th in total yards) and will be hard pressed to move the chains vs. a quick defense in an angry mood coming off its worst effort, points-wise, in almost four years. Washington State, 31-9.
SUMMARY OF NFL SELECTIONS
BEST BETS
SEATTLE over *WASHINGTON by 14
*KANSAS CITY over CLEVELAND by 21
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*NY GIANTS over ATLANTA by 17
*CINCINNATI over HOUSTON by 14
BUFFALO over *DALLAS by 4
SUMMARY OF NCAA SELECTIONS
SUPER BEST BET
*NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 27
BEST BETS
*NORTHWESTERN over PENN STATE by 8
*WASHINGTON STATE over UCLA by 22
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
WEST VIRGINIA over *BOSTON COLLEGE by 7
WISCONSIN over *MINNESOTA by 2
BALL STATE over *WESTERN MICHIGAN by 6
KENT STATE over *OHIO by 6
TEXAS over *OKLAHOMA STATE by 10
*LOUISIANA TECH over SMU by 33
RUTGERS over *CONNECTICUT by 1
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
BEST BET
SEATTLE over *WASHINGTON by 14
You’ve got to be thinking that third time is the charm for Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks in their annual first-weekend-in-November match-up vs. the Redskins. Last year, a very banged-up Seattle team held its own defensively, but lost 14-3 on their home field when Steve Spurrier was smart enough to listen to someone outside his own head and ran theball at a weak Seattle defensive front. Two seasons ago, the Seahawks came East and laid an egg in DC, but that was a non-conference road game (when Seattle was in the AFC). The Seahawks are in better shape now than for either of the prior two, while Washington may not know which end is up. The two teams are contrasts in management. The Seattle owneryanked Holmgren from the GM spot and put a real guy there. Ownersown, GMs GM, and coaches coach players. But in Washington, the owner wants to do a lot more than own and it takes the goofy GM and coaches, and players, off track. Seattle’s defensive front is to the point where Holmgren is talking about having “numbers” at the position, and DT John Randle has been removed from every-down duties and shifted to third-downspecialist. That’s a very positive thing for Seattle’s run defense, and a bad thing for Washington QB Patrick Ramsey, who rarely gets good protection. Unsatisfactory protection will be even more of a problem now that the Seahawks have gotten their defensive secondary healthy again, because a hurried QB will be an intercepted QB. Ramsey was sacked 4 times for 43 yards in losses last week. Because of injuries, the Redskins have had no continuity in their running game, and even if RBs Ladell Betts or Trung Canidate return, it’s easy to see them being out of sync with the other guys because most of the others are already out of sync. SEATTTLE, 27-13.
BEST BET
*KANSAS CITY over CLEVELAND by 21
The popular story-line about the Chiefs this season is the Dick Vermeil parallel. Now in his third season as head coach at Kansas City, Vermeil won the Super Bowl in his third season as head coach of the Rams in 1999. But the more important Vermeil parallel from that year is that his Rams were 14-2 ATS in the regular season, when they averaged anNFL-record high +12 vs. the point-spread. The Chiefs are currently on pace to match that money-making level, at 7-1 ATS, playing +10.8 ATS on average, best in the NFL. In a season where favorites are covering nearly 55%, many pre-game cases made for the underdog have turned out to be real “stretches.” And that’s what a lean to the Browns would seem to be. They have a banged-up offensive line, and two QBs who may as well be named Bad and Worse. Their best running back, William Green, has apparently carried more weed than footballs. Dave Campo’s re-tooled Cleveland defense has been playing its heart out, not allowing a TD in three games this season. But when there is little support from the offense, sometimes the bottom falls out of a defense. KANSAS CITY, 37-16.
BEST BET
*NORTHWESTERN over PENN STATE by 8
The Nittany Lions rushed for 423 yards, including 257 by Larry Johnson, in a 49-0 win over Northwestern last year. Don’t expect those kind of numbers this time around as Johnson is in the NFL and nobody has stepped up to fill his large shoes. Wildcats have been more than respectable against the number this season, posting a 5-3-1 ATS record
so far. That includes a 16-7 home win over a Wisconsin team that beat Penn State in Happy Valley. Compare the Wildcats to the 2-7 ATS mark of Penn State, where the fingerpointing at longtime coach Joe Paterno continues unabated despite a nice try in a 21-20 loss to Ohio State (the Nittanies’ first cover since September). Off-the-field problems continueto dog the Lions, as yet another player was kicked off the team before last week’s game. On-the-field hasn’t been much better, as Paterno has flip-flopped between Michael Robinson and Zack Mills at QB, and neither has sparked this lifeless offense. Although this isn’t the Wildcats’ final home game (next week versus Michigan is), Northwestern’s playersare smart enough to realize they can win this game. Northwestern, 28-20
SUPER BEST BET
*NOTRE DAME over NAVY by 27
In Notre Dame’s fantasy season of 2002, when Ty was Fly and the majority of loose footballs slow-motioned into the waiting hands of wide-eyed Fighting Irish players, this match-up occurred during a “perfect storm” of converging handicapping fronts that pointed to Navy. Notre Dame had been coming off their first loss of the season after an 8-0 start, and spent the lead-in week applying for a spot on the Boulevard of Broken Dreams. Navy, meanwhile, in head coach Paul Johnson’s first season, was coming off a bye. It was the classic military ambush – a well-prepared, surprise attack on a distracted Axis Power – and Navy successfully torpedoed the chalk-players with a direct-hit, near-upset that landed three touchdowns inside the linemaker’s target. But now, Navy lacks all those important edges. The Middies’ offense is a known quantity to Ty Die, and there ain’t no bye. So say hi to the Irish method thatdowned academy-school Air Force last season, which is simple execution of offensive and defensive game plans by bigger, faster, stronger players who know what’s coming at them when they’re on defense, and whose offensive players can blow holes through and run past the Navy defenders. Throw out the 2003 straight-up and ATS records and the stats from their recent games this season. Don’t mean nothin’. NOTRE DAME, 37-10.
BEST BET
*WASHINGTON STATE over UCLA by 22
We have been wondering all season long just how good a team UCLA really is and this is the week we’re going to find out, although last week’s upset loss at 3-4 Stanford was a pretty good clue. We won’t hold a 54-29 trouncing at the hands of Oklahoma against the Bruins, and neither should you, because everyone gets thumped by the Sooners. So too, does almost everyone get thumped by USC, so let’s forget lastweek’s 43-16 embarrassment in LA and move on. The Cougars only other loss was ingame #1, a 29-26 OT loss in South Bend caused greatly by turnovers. The key to this game is a solid State defense that is 29th in the country, allowing just 19.8 PPG and 25th in total yards allowed. The Bruins have had trouble moving the ball all year (109th in total yards) and will be hard pressed to move the chains vs. a quick defense in an angry mood coming off its worst effort, points-wise, in almost four years. Washington State, 31-9.
WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
*** Dallas over Buffalo by 18
RECOMMENDATIONS
Minnesota over *San Diego by 15
Chicago over *Detroit by 9
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
*** RICE* over TULSA by 14
RECOMMENDATIONS
Auburn* over Mississippi by 18
Ball State over Western Michigan* by 11
Nevada* over Fresno State by 14
Rutgers over Connecticut* by 4
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
****BEST BET
Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
The defending Super Bowl champion Bucs have a knack for rising to the occasion, while the Panthers’ 6-2 record is deceiving. The Panthers already have tied an NFL mark by winning three games in overtime. Besides edging the Colts in overtime, the Panthers’ only other victory against an above .500 team was against the Bucs. That occurred back in Week 2 in a bitterly contested game the Panthers won, 12-9, in of course overtime. There were close to 300 yards in penalties. The Bucs out-gained Carolina, 397-258 and led in first downs, 25-14. They held Carolina QB Jake Delhomme to less than 100 yards passing. The Bucs dominated and should have won, but were hurt by the Panthers blocking several kicks. The Bucs have been pointing to this rematch ever since. The Bucs are especially angry blowing a game at home to New Orleans last week by committing six turnovers. Playing on the road has been a Tampa Bay strength under Jon Gruden. The Bucs are 11-4 SU away from home. The Bucs have won seven of their past eight road games, outscoring their foes, 203-98, in these games. The Bucs hold a huge edge in the passing game. Brad Johnson has thrown 38 TD passes and just 14 interceptions the last two years. The Bucs have done a good job protecting the immobile Johnson. He’s been sacked 10 times this year. The Bucs should get healthier on defense with safety John Lynch (check status) possibly returning. The Panthers rely on RB Stephen Davis, not Delhomme. Davis rushed for 142 yards in the team’s first meeting. The Bucs have gone to more of a gap control type of defense. They held the Cowboys to just 60 yards on the ground, and kept Deuce McAllister from scoring last week. Monte Kiffin is one of the top defensive coordinators. He’ll find a way to slow up Davis. Without Davis producing a big game, the Panthers are in trouble. TAMPA BAY 24-7.
***BEST BET
*Dallas over Buffalo by 18
The last time we saw the Bills they were proving to America just how strong Kansas City is and how overrated they are. Simply put, the Bills are not a good team. The Bills are 4-4, but they have not looked good during five of their last six games. Their minus 9 turnover ratio was the worst in the AFC through eight weeks. Buffalo has looked especially bad away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have dropped seven of their last eight road contests. They’ve been outscored, 187-99, in these games. In four of these road defeats, the Bills offense failed to produce a touchdown. Buffalo is on pace to set a team record for fewest rushing yards in a 16-game season. The Bills were ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards at the halfway point. So much for Buffalo’s commitment to become better balanced. The problem the Bills have on the road is they can’t count on QB Drew Bledsoe. He’s thrown five TD passes, been intercepted 15 times and sacked 26 times in his road performances for Buffalo. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells is very familiar with Bledsoe, having coached him at New England. Parcells knows how to get inside Bledsoe’s head, and he loves to match up against one-dimensional offenses. So look for Parcells to have the right defenses set up against Bledsoe. The Cowboys have allowed a touchdown or less against three opponents, and 13 of Tampa Bay’s 16 points against Dallas two weeks ago were either set up by interceptions or penalties. Buffalo had just 19 takeaways in 2002, last in the NFL. Despite adding some marquee defensive names like LB Takeo Spikes and safety Lawyer Milloy, the Bills haven’t improved in this key area. They have just 10 takeaways and only 13 sacks. Parcells has shored up Dallas’ passing attack. Already three Dallas wideouts have more than 300 receiving yards. The coaching edge is huge, too, between Parcells and overmatched Gregg Williams. DALLAS 21-3.
****BEST BET
PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
Joe Tiller’s Boilermakers showed the kind of pride and character that a quality veteran team should possess in that easy romp vs. Northwestern, with no hangover from their loss to Michigan the previous Saturday, and also putting the Rose Bowl firmly within their grasp. That would be a fitting climax to the season for a team that deserved a much better fate LY, and there will be absolutely no problem for them bring their ‘A’ game this week. It was not many months ago that the Hawkeyes were in a BCS bowl while the Boilermakers were relegated to El Paso, despite the fact that Purdue may have been the better team LY. They won an overwhelming percentage of the snaps when these two met head-to-head in Iowa city, leading 30-14 in first downs and 507-384 in total offense. But the special teams play by Iowa turned the game in a major way, with TD’s being scored on a blocked punt and a blocked field goal. The Hawkeyes then got over the hump on a late 95 yard TD pass. This time we expect a similar Purdue dominance on a snap by snap basis, and if Tiller’s special teams can play a clean game this one can be rather easy. The limited Hawkeye skill corps has only had to play from behind twice on the road all season, and could produce next to nothing in losses at Michigan State and Ohio State (only 20 points, while turning it over seven times). Now they face a defense that can cover their limited playbook, creating great field position for their own offensive unit. PURDUE 31-10.
***BEST BET
RICE* over TULSA by 14
While speed and the passing game are bigger and bigger parts of the college football maps these days, when we get to the month of November there are still some loyal standby’s that we can work with, like a good old fashioned matchup of a surging ground attack against a tiring defense that will have trouble standing its ground in the trenches for 60 minutes. And that is exactly what we have here, nearly 12 months to the day that the identical teams matched up in a game that was also at the top of these pages. In that one the Owls were -7 on the road and rolled to a 33-6 lead in the fourth quarter, before finally getting a 33-18 margin. They pounded away at the Golden Hurricanes to the tune of 427 rushing yards, and now that Kyle Herm is healthy again the Rice option is clicking at one of its highest levels in recent years – 80 points and 771 rushing yards in that near-miss at Fresno State and upset of Nevada the past two weeks. And while Tulsa is among the nation’s most improved teams in Steve Kragthorpe’s first season, that traditional softness against the run that has plagued the program for many years is something that has not been corrected. The key from a value standpoint is that every bit of the Tulsa resurgence is reflected in this line, which also allows us a special category in which to use Ken Hatfied – how about a 13-1 ATS run in his last 14 games as an underdog in this stadium? This time he does not just get the cover, but the outright win. RICE 37-23.
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
*** Dallas over Buffalo by 18
RECOMMENDATIONS
Minnesota over *San Diego by 15
Chicago over *Detroit by 9
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
*** RICE* over TULSA by 14
RECOMMENDATIONS
Auburn* over Mississippi by 18
Ball State over Western Michigan* by 11
Nevada* over Fresno State by 14
Rutgers over Connecticut* by 4
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BET SELECTIONS
****BEST BET
Tampa Bay over *Carolina by 17
The defending Super Bowl champion Bucs have a knack for rising to the occasion, while the Panthers’ 6-2 record is deceiving. The Panthers already have tied an NFL mark by winning three games in overtime. Besides edging the Colts in overtime, the Panthers’ only other victory against an above .500 team was against the Bucs. That occurred back in Week 2 in a bitterly contested game the Panthers won, 12-9, in of course overtime. There were close to 300 yards in penalties. The Bucs out-gained Carolina, 397-258 and led in first downs, 25-14. They held Carolina QB Jake Delhomme to less than 100 yards passing. The Bucs dominated and should have won, but were hurt by the Panthers blocking several kicks. The Bucs have been pointing to this rematch ever since. The Bucs are especially angry blowing a game at home to New Orleans last week by committing six turnovers. Playing on the road has been a Tampa Bay strength under Jon Gruden. The Bucs are 11-4 SU away from home. The Bucs have won seven of their past eight road games, outscoring their foes, 203-98, in these games. The Bucs hold a huge edge in the passing game. Brad Johnson has thrown 38 TD passes and just 14 interceptions the last two years. The Bucs have done a good job protecting the immobile Johnson. He’s been sacked 10 times this year. The Bucs should get healthier on defense with safety John Lynch (check status) possibly returning. The Panthers rely on RB Stephen Davis, not Delhomme. Davis rushed for 142 yards in the team’s first meeting. The Bucs have gone to more of a gap control type of defense. They held the Cowboys to just 60 yards on the ground, and kept Deuce McAllister from scoring last week. Monte Kiffin is one of the top defensive coordinators. He’ll find a way to slow up Davis. Without Davis producing a big game, the Panthers are in trouble. TAMPA BAY 24-7.
***BEST BET
*Dallas over Buffalo by 18
The last time we saw the Bills they were proving to America just how strong Kansas City is and how overrated they are. Simply put, the Bills are not a good team. The Bills are 4-4, but they have not looked good during five of their last six games. Their minus 9 turnover ratio was the worst in the AFC through eight weeks. Buffalo has looked especially bad away from Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Bills have dropped seven of their last eight road contests. They’ve been outscored, 187-99, in these games. In four of these road defeats, the Bills offense failed to produce a touchdown. Buffalo is on pace to set a team record for fewest rushing yards in a 16-game season. The Bills were ranked last in the NFL in rushing yards at the halfway point. So much for Buffalo’s commitment to become better balanced. The problem the Bills have on the road is they can’t count on QB Drew Bledsoe. He’s thrown five TD passes, been intercepted 15 times and sacked 26 times in his road performances for Buffalo. Cowboys coach Bill Parcells is very familiar with Bledsoe, having coached him at New England. Parcells knows how to get inside Bledsoe’s head, and he loves to match up against one-dimensional offenses. So look for Parcells to have the right defenses set up against Bledsoe. The Cowboys have allowed a touchdown or less against three opponents, and 13 of Tampa Bay’s 16 points against Dallas two weeks ago were either set up by interceptions or penalties. Buffalo had just 19 takeaways in 2002, last in the NFL. Despite adding some marquee defensive names like LB Takeo Spikes and safety Lawyer Milloy, the Bills haven’t improved in this key area. They have just 10 takeaways and only 13 sacks. Parcells has shored up Dallas’ passing attack. Already three Dallas wideouts have more than 300 receiving yards. The coaching edge is huge, too, between Parcells and overmatched Gregg Williams. DALLAS 21-3.
****BEST BET
PURDUE* over IOWA by 21
Joe Tiller’s Boilermakers showed the kind of pride and character that a quality veteran team should possess in that easy romp vs. Northwestern, with no hangover from their loss to Michigan the previous Saturday, and also putting the Rose Bowl firmly within their grasp. That would be a fitting climax to the season for a team that deserved a much better fate LY, and there will be absolutely no problem for them bring their ‘A’ game this week. It was not many months ago that the Hawkeyes were in a BCS bowl while the Boilermakers were relegated to El Paso, despite the fact that Purdue may have been the better team LY. They won an overwhelming percentage of the snaps when these two met head-to-head in Iowa city, leading 30-14 in first downs and 507-384 in total offense. But the special teams play by Iowa turned the game in a major way, with TD’s being scored on a blocked punt and a blocked field goal. The Hawkeyes then got over the hump on a late 95 yard TD pass. This time we expect a similar Purdue dominance on a snap by snap basis, and if Tiller’s special teams can play a clean game this one can be rather easy. The limited Hawkeye skill corps has only had to play from behind twice on the road all season, and could produce next to nothing in losses at Michigan State and Ohio State (only 20 points, while turning it over seven times). Now they face a defense that can cover their limited playbook, creating great field position for their own offensive unit. PURDUE 31-10.
***BEST BET
RICE* over TULSA by 14
While speed and the passing game are bigger and bigger parts of the college football maps these days, when we get to the month of November there are still some loyal standby’s that we can work with, like a good old fashioned matchup of a surging ground attack against a tiring defense that will have trouble standing its ground in the trenches for 60 minutes. And that is exactly what we have here, nearly 12 months to the day that the identical teams matched up in a game that was also at the top of these pages. In that one the Owls were -7 on the road and rolled to a 33-6 lead in the fourth quarter, before finally getting a 33-18 margin. They pounded away at the Golden Hurricanes to the tune of 427 rushing yards, and now that Kyle Herm is healthy again the Rice option is clicking at one of its highest levels in recent years – 80 points and 771 rushing yards in that near-miss at Fresno State and upset of Nevada the past two weeks. And while Tulsa is among the nation’s most improved teams in Steve Kragthorpe’s first season, that traditional softness against the run that has plagued the program for many years is something that has not been corrected. The key from a value standpoint is that every bit of the Tulsa resurgence is reflected in this line, which also allows us a special category in which to use Ken Hatfied – how about a 13-1 ATS run in his last 14 games as an underdog in this stadium? This time he does not just get the cover, but the outright win. RICE 37-23.
