Mike, I have been posting this system for 3 years now, saying it sucked was tongue in cheek. I don't have a lot of posts (I have other things to do) but i've been here.. Just try to help when I can. I did not know it had been a winning play for that long. I just know I've played it for 7 years (7 winning years). I would estimate the avg price at +112 based on last 7 years.. If you pulled up that stat, maybe you could tell me ats dogs of more than 7? I mean for atleast 10 years or so? Thanks one way or the other..
NFL Home Dogs 1985-2000 (ATS)
+7 32-37-1
+7.5 9-17
+8thru+11 71-45-2
+11.5&up 23-19-1
Have no idea why +7/+7.5 is so bad, yet +8 and up is so good. It seems like all the value in home dogs is from +1 to +3,and +8 & up.Last year I figured that the home dog subset of +3.5 to +7.5 was 49.3% over this 15 yr. period.
Don't know why this subset has been priced correctly, but the lower & higher #'s have been great value.Anyone have any theories?
+7 32-37-1
+7.5 9-17
+8thru+11 71-45-2
+11.5&up 23-19-1
Have no idea why +7/+7.5 is so bad, yet +8 and up is so good. It seems like all the value in home dogs is from +1 to +3,and +8 & up.Last year I figured that the home dog subset of +3.5 to +7.5 was 49.3% over this 15 yr. period.
Don't know why this subset has been priced correctly, but the lower & higher #'s have been great value.Anyone have any theories?
NO, don't know why. As far as college am trying to work on an automatic play there. Do have a 2nd half play that works very well w/big favs. thats 3-0 this year. It happens very rarely; but when it does it seems to be money. Will post it; if someone has the time to do research for previous years; as I've got a full time business to run also.
Split (w/ Cin,Atl) now at 1.55 units..
Mike, only theory I can come up with regarding the <3 dogs is that its two even teams, home field does matter.. Matters every year.. If they are playoff teams, or sorry teams, as long as they are evenly matched, it matters.. As far as >8 dogs go, you just can't give up that many points in the nfl, due to the conservative nature of nfl hc's.. As far as those between 3-8, law of averages dictate there must be losers, LOL..
Mike, only theory I can come up with regarding the <3 dogs is that its two even teams, home field does matter.. Matters every year.. If they are playoff teams, or sorry teams, as long as they are evenly matched, it matters.. As far as >8 dogs go, you just can't give up that many points in the nfl, due to the conservative nature of nfl hc's.. As far as those between 3-8, law of averages dictate there must be losers, LOL..
I think if you're playing dogs in the NFL you're better off taking the ML all the time instead of the points. I only play dogs and my record this year is 17-24 (-8.29) taking the points. Had I played the ML my record would be 14-27 (+2.3). Not sure if it's the case every year but last year i finished in the + and would have been up more had I played the ML instead.
JimmyK, I can work on getting those numbers, just been real busy lately..
Zoom, the fact is that you can make money betting dogs by losing more games that you win..
Exactly why I like the nfl home dog <3 system (and dd dogs), going 3-4 but winning money helps the psyche, lol...
Zoom, the fact is that you can make money betting dogs by losing more games that you win..
Exactly why I like the nfl home dog <3 system (and dd dogs), going 3-4 but winning money helps the psyche, lol...
