Following Other Cappers: Advice?

[Grogan]

I've had a fair amount of success over the past 5+ years betting on pro football, and always made a point of not following somebody's else's picks, because it would just screw me up, mess up my thinking. So far, so good.

But I've been following this forum for a little while now, and after getting a sense for who the sharper handicappers were (not going to mention any names, I've also noticed there's a lot of ego in here!) I've checked them out every day, and then played the few picks that stand out (I don't know college hoops well enough at all to do my own capping, so there's nothing to screw up). So far, I'm up a bit, but it doesn't feel like the ideal strategy.

So......any suggestions on using other's plays? I'm guessing the first thing I'll hear is stick with one capper and ride it that way, but I'm not sure I'd have the discipline for that--ignoring what seems like good picks from others, etc. Any thoughts appreciated, thx.

 

[TigerVen]

I pretty much do the same thing you do, and overall it's worked out pretty well for me. I don't know exactly what to tell you except try not to read more than 3 or 4 of the better cappers threads. Like you said it takes discipline. I'm much better at football, so I rarely look at the forum during football season because it will screw me up (learned from experience); however, there are some pretty damn good b'ball cappers here and like everbody they get on streaks good and bad. I try to look at where everybody is from, and whether or not they are a fan of a team in that area. For example Kodiak 7 is from Michigan and is a big UM fan. Therefore I tend to believe he knows what he's talking about when it comes to teams in the Big 10 and the Mid-majors in his area. IF a man gambles then he is one hell of a sports fan and a statistic freak. He keeps an eye on every team around him in a constant search for an edge. Myself personally, I'm an LSU fan;so I know what is going on with every SEC team from recruiting to spring practice in football. I know what coaches and what teams match up well and when there is an advatage. I also know the history backwards and forwards of the SEC. Anything I can do or read to give me an edge. I also know what's going on with the local teams around me. You get the picture.


Good luck in the tournament.

 

[Grogan]

Thanks for the input, which makes sense. Good thought, actually--find the strengths of the top handicappers and rely more strongly on that.

So you'll be the go-to guy for the SEC!

 

[Highdaddy]

i usually cap the games myself, and i watch a few guys on here...and if we're on the same page ill hit it

 

[truelyhandicapping]

not to mention any names but i like to follow a few cappers here. I try to stay away from their favorite teams, just seems when you like a certain team, you let it effect your judgement.

 

[stewie21]

stewie's gems

 

[ElIguana]

Grogan, Tiger Ven & highdaddy offer good advice.

All I would add (a little off your subject, but possibly helpful) is that the dogs have been barking, especially now that it is tourney time and there is no more "home court advantage." If you take a favorite, the only way you win is if the team wins big enough. If you take a dog, your team can win or lose small, and you can still win. I know this is pretty simplistic--stuff you probably figured out a long time ago, but thought it might help. GL

 

[jimmymo]

i'll second highdaddy's comment -- its frustrating to see people complain about losing when they don't do their own homework.

if you are jsut starting out capping basketball, read the write ups, analyze the reasons for the play and follow up each play with a review of the results (boxscore and recap)-- eventually you have to make some determinations on what is important and what is not when selecting plays (e.g., public perception, strength of schedule, specific statistics, recetn trend, etc.)

also, ask questions -- i think you will find that most here are willing to answer and it should be helpful.

good luck

 

[Highdaddy]

stewies ghosts?

 

[pops69]

why dont you just get a copy of the pod stats, it list everyone that posed a pick of the day about 120 cappers, almost 1600 picks with w/l records etc plus how much money you would have made or loss following the picks. i guess that too easy

 

[stewie21]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Highdaddy:
i usually cap the games myself, and i watch a few guys on here...and if we're on the same page ill hit it<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

why don't you ever post these games that you "cap yourself"
would love to see them sometime

 

[TideRider+]

We like to just ride one or two hot cappers.Cbb is fairly new to me so i need the help.

Pick a capper or two and see what they have in common for a pick.Then just do it!

 

[jaypaw]

dont follw me for god's sake

and for christ's sake stay away from my favorite teams

 

[Grogan]

Thanks to all for the feedback.

Jimmymo--I hear what you're saying, but whining about losing is the last thing I'd do....in fact, I've made a point of telling a couple of good cappers here who have missed their big plays to knock off the "sorry" stuff. End of the day, your picks are your picks. I've found that even after a couple of weeks I'm bringing my own opinions into it, but not sure that's such a good idea, lol.

Pops--the POD stats are interesting to check out, no doubt about it.

 

[packer2012]

There is ONLY one very predictable way to use all this data!

When a side emerges as a very popular play...

Take the other side. Probably wins 75-80% of the time!

Don't ask me why. Lots of reasons. Many of the cappers on here are school kids. Many more are just sheep every day.

Just look for that occasional side that seemingly EVERYONE is on. Fade it big and win!

Not saying there are not a very few good cappers on here.. I guess what I am saying is... No doubt the sharp people on here bail or even change sides when the whole board lines up behind one of their plays!

 

[DJ6593]

Grogan,

Your question is one that is often asked. Beyond capping my own games, I have over time identified a number of good cappers. I list their plays, find consensus, and wager accordingly. I have just completed my 7th winning week in a row. If you find good cappers on opposite sides of a game, just pass it. No sense in trying to decide which is the right side.

This site has helped me tremendously.
GL